The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[acrobaticgoalie]

Yep, good trade but wouldn't he also be a useful player to have kept?

Yes and no. By trading him we lost depth scoring from the 3rd line but we also opened up cap space to sign Brodie which improved our defense immensely. Another thing I've considered was that while he put up some points and had great speed, I feel like he killed posession at times with his tunnel vision, taking low percentage shots which would get the play going the other way. Hopefully the likes of Kase or Ritchie can replace his 40-50 pts for cheaper. Or if Mikheyev can return to his production from his rookie year, then we could still have the depth scoring while being a good defensive team.

 

[Morbo]

WTFMAN threw in some deals he made on the Island and i added on to it but i guess those are also nothing either which is funny coming from someone who defends the deals Dubas handed out , lol .

uh huh.

to remind you, the actual point at issue was the remark that Lou would simply have done everything right.

whatever you think about each individual deal, saying that both GMs have a mixed track record with contracts doesn't advance that argument. obviously.

 

[jcs0218]

well, for starters, this:

Him going down to the final few minutes with Nylander and then giving Nylander exactly what he was asking for should have been Clue #1 that Dubas had no idea what he was doing and was in way over his head.

which we know to be a lie

Except that didn't happen at all. If anything, it was the exact opposite.

It did go down to the final minutes.

Nylander was using Pastrnak as a comparable, and ended up getting even higher AAV than Pastrnak.

I don't see what part of what I said was a lie.

 

[hotpaws]

uh huh.

to remind you, the actual point at issue was the remark that Lou would simply have done everything right.

whatever you think about each individual deal, saying that both GMs have a mixed track record with contracts doesn't advance that argument. obviously.

who said he would have done everything right ? hell i even posted 2 contracts he didn't do well on

 

[Twine Tickler]

This is all good fair analysis. I had the timeline messed up. I will give Dubas the same criticism for not signing M&M a lot sooner.

I give Trotz and Mitch Korn most of the credit for their recent successes. Its no coincidence that after Lou hired the best coach in the league (imo) coming off a Cup win and best defensive coach as well as arguably the best goalie coach in the league that all of a sudden they went from being a wreck defensively and sub .500 win% to being a 48-27-7 team with the best defensive metrics and best goalie tandem. All while bringing back essentially the same roster minus their best player in Tavares.

I will be the first to admit that the Isles have far exceed my expectations based on the age of the team, their cap and prospect pool but I still can't see them being able to repeat this for much longer. Their forward group is built up of power forwards who are either in their 30s or approaching their 30s, which doesn't age well. Many of which who were signed to long term deals at 5+M. They still have a pretty bad prospect pool which won't do them many favors when their aging players are injured or gone. Plus when the Barzal, Sorokin, Dobson, Wahlstrom, Beauvillier, and pulock deals expire, they will likely be in line for raises (some of them big) and will still have most of their aging players on their cap with most likely some difficulty moving them.

Yup I totally agree with all of this.

It is important to give Lou his flowers for his work on the Island. He made a handful of staffing changes that shifted the same roster from the year prior from being a bottom feeder to a contender. All while losing their best player and captain.

Lou has helped convince 2 hall of fame coaches to leave their post's to join a complete tire fire. It is impressive.

It's just not the same changes that would have occurred in TOR. And when you look at the NYI roster on a sheet of paper, aside from Barzal, there is legitimately no one on that team that has anything more than ok to good talent. I am 100% certain this roster would be a lottery team without Trotz.

Trotz has a very deep resume, but this may be some of his best work to date TBH.

As you mentioned as well, Mitch Korn has also been a huge add. He basically turned Lehner into the goalie he was always projected to become and gave a second life to the career of Thomas Greiss. Who was a career backup that posted 3.82GAA and .892 S% in 2017-18 prior to his arrival. Only to follow it up with a 2.28GAA and .927 S% the year after.

Lots of solid work done by that staff as a whole. But they really are nothing great on paper. It really all hinges on how long this group can tolerate Lou and Trotz's message TBH. Because having to wear a suit to board a plane, keeping clean shaven, keeping your number below 50, or any of the other weird shit that Lou forces his players to do is only tolerable when you are winning

 

[Dekes For Days]

It did go down to the final minutes.
Nylander was using Pastrnak as a comparable, and ended up getting even higher AAV than Pastrnak.

It went down to the final minutes, but he didn't give Nylander "exactly what he was asking". You have no idea if Pastrnak was a comparable that was used. He certainly wasn't the only comparable, if he was one at all, and for the record, Pastrnak got a higher cap hit percentage. Nylander's contract is perfectly fine.

 

[jcs0218]

It went down to the final minutes, but he didn't give Nylander "exactly what he was asking". You have no idea if Pastrnak was a comparable that was used. He certainly wasn't the only comparable, if he was one at all, and for the record, Pastrnak got a higher cap hit percentage. Nylander's contract is perfectly fine.

Whether Nylander's contact is "perfectly fine" or not isn't relevant.

What is relevant is that Dubas came out looking weak after the negotiations were over, and Matthews and Marner knew that he could be taken advantage of and would cave if enough pressure was put on him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What is relevant is that Dubas came out looking weak after the negotiations were over

Except he didn't, at all. He held firm to the absolute limit, and was willing to let Nylander sit for the season if he couldn't get a reasonable price (which he did). If anything, he came out of that negotiation looking stronger.

 

[Menzinger]

Whether Nylander's contact is "perfectly fine" or not isn't relevant.

What is relevant is that Dubas came out looking weak after the negotiations were over, and Matthews and Marner knew that he could be taken advantage of and would cave if enough pressure was put on him.

Though this in of itself is fairly speculative.

Nylanders contract for example was never going to have any barring on what Matthews got.

I think at worst one could argue it convinced management for the Marner deal to not let things go later into the fall

 

[Menzinger]

Dubas is on the clock. Some criticism fair others not. Nothing left to talk about until the season is over. A successful year he’s back,a failure he’s gone.

Ive seen this sort of post made a few times, but regardless of whenever one wants that happen or don't want it, I think a number of people underestimate what it takes to fire a GM. Because it wouldn't just be Dubas' who goes, it would also entail getting rid of Shanahan too.

Think back to Burke - it wasn't even on ice performance that got him booted (and his was way worse than Dubas'), rather it was interpersonal conflict with the board.during an ownership transition that led to the end of him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think a number of people underestimate what it takes to fire a GM.

I'd be interested to know of a GM that's been fired after just 4 years, after making the playoffs every year.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I think him shifting gears every time the media is mean about his team is a weakness, we'd be better off if he hard committed to building the fastest team in the league. We don't really have an identity right now, we're just pretty good at most things but not the most/best anything. I get the Foligno/Simmonds pivot at this point because you missed the window for going all-in on speed but even then I'd rather him take a bigger risk to fix the percieved toughness problem long-term even if it means turning Marner into Tkachuk+. Shifting gears often makes sense for mechanical systemic things like their target draft profile or how they run breakouts, you burn a lot of assets shifting gears on big picture things.

That being said, Marner's value is going to be at its highest this off-season after his bonus is paid before his NMC kicks in and if Dubas is still here he might have one last trick up his sleeve.

In a vacuum I could see a Tkchuck for Marner type of move being a shifting of the gears that could potentially work in our favor. It gives a different style of player at the top end of our lineup and could potentially save us considerable money to use elsewhere depending on Tkchuck's contract demands beyond this season. But I still think it is a bit early to do that deal.

I recognize it seems like flawed logic to run it back for the 6th straight season with this core and expect a different result, but we really do owe it to ourselves as fans and as an organization to completely see this core through. There will come a day when that door needs to close, but I really do believe that time is in 2 off-season's time. When we are approaching Auston's final year. At that time, we go where Auston takes us. If his demands are not to a point where we can feasibly resign him, or if he is flat out reluctant to sign an extension, that is when I'd make that cataclysmic shift in a new direction. Most likely to a full rebuild.

I am not entirely opposed to a deal of our core group next off-season, but we'd really need it to be a deal that doesn't waste Matthews 2022-23 season. Because without an extension in the summer of 2023, there is absolutely no way we can bring Auston into the 2023-24 season. Meaning the return from a deal that involves a core player next off-season could potentially only yield 1 year with Auston before we'd reluctantly have to part ways. Again, Auston staying is completely in his court. So whatever deal we do potentially make has to make sense with or without Auston. To me, I think we run it back 2 more years and if we can extend Matthews, we have the option to retool by shipping out Marner and/or Willy. Or if he wants to walk we are in a great position to liquidate the final year of Willy and Auston's deal, as well as the final 2 years of JT's and Marner's. Obviously with some retention on the big 3 AAV's most likely.

Trading for Tkchuk only makes sense with an extension. Lets pretend we extend him anywhere between 5-8 years staring in the 2022-23 season. Then lets pretend Auston shows no sign of extending the following summer. We'd have to move him. Now we are stuck with a player that's worse than Mitch, and no quality centreman to play with him. Smells like mediocrity to me. We really have to be careful with this IMO. Every deal has to make sense beyond a potential Auston departure. Gotta prepare for worst case scenario

 

[A1LeafNation]

Adam Pelech
Brock Nelson
Semyon Varlamov

Are also pretty good. Lou gets it done for the most part.

To be fair Dubas gets contracts done well for the most part too.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I'd be interested to know of a GM that's been fired after just 4 years, after making the playoffs every year.

JR?

 

[Dekes For Days]

JR?

Who is JR?

 

[Racer88]

People dislike him because the team is under achieving.
It's probably more accurate to say that 90% of the people that like him do so because of his age.

Or they think underlying stats are more important then actually winning

 

[Racer88]

What would be considered Dubas' best move to date?

I hear they are going to have this tasty new popcorn in the stands this year………that’s all I got

 

[A1LeafNation]

Who is JR?

Rutherford stepped down, but was basically a nice way of firing him

 

[Dekes For Days]

Rutherford stepped down, but was basically a nice way of firing him

Rutherford resigned, and he was GM for 6 and a half years.

 

[Stephen]

I'd be interested to know of a GM that's been fired after just 4 years, after making the playoffs every year.

The Minnesota Wild fired Chuck Fletcher after 6 straight playoff appearances and 3x straight first round exits in 2018. It happens.

 

[Gabriel426]

GM is always judge by results. Whether they choose to promote Dubas or Lou wanted to leave or whatever, Dubas coming in as GM is expected to do better than Lou. Playoffs wise, still first round exits.
Draft picks and prospects wise, Dubas seems to be doing better bc it seems like his picks are at least signed to ELC while a lot of Lou picks didn’t even earn an ELCs any where.


To me he failed at his job sofar bc the team is still getting booted in the first round. That could change as quick as this year. Let’s face it, if the Leafs can actually win a round, Dubas will be ahead of Lou, Burke, and Nonis in terms of Leafs playoffs records.

 

[Martin Skoula]

In a vacuum I could see a Tkchuck for Marner type of move being a shifting of the gears that could potentially work in our favor. It gives a different style of player at the top end of our lineup and could potentially save us considerable money to use elsewhere depending on Tkchuck's contract demands beyond this season. But I still think it is a bit early to do that deal.

I recognize it seems like flawed logic to run it back for the 6th straight season with this core and expect a different result, but we really do owe it to ourselves as fans and as an organization to completely see this core through. There will come a day when that door needs to close, but I really do believe that time is in 2 off-season's time. When we are approaching Auston's final year. At that time, we go where Auston takes us. If his demands are not to a point where we can feasibly resign him, or if he is flat out reluctant to sign an extension, that is when I'd make that cataclysmic shift in a new direction. Most likely to a full rebuild.

I am not entirely opposed to a deal of our core group next off-season, but we'd really need it to be a deal that doesn't waste Matthews 2022-23 season. Because without an extension in the summer of 2023, there is absolutely no way we can bring Auston into the 2023-24 season. Meaning the return from a deal that involves a core player next off-season could potentially only yield 1 year with Auston before we'd reluctantly have to part ways. Again, Auston staying is completely in his court. So whatever deal we do potentially make has to make sense with or without Auston. To me, I think we run it back 2 more years and if we can extend Matthews, we have the option to retool by shipping out Marner and/or Willy. Or if he wants to walk we are in a great position to liquidate the final year of Willy and Auston's deal, as well as the final 2 years of JT's and Marner's. Obviously with some retention on the big 3 AAV's most likely.

Trading for Tkchuk only makes sense with an extension. Lets pretend we extend him anywhere between 5-8 years staring in the 2022-23 season. Then lets pretend Auston shows no sign of extending the following summer. We'd have to move him. Now we are stuck with a player that's worse than Mitch, and no quality centreman to play with him. Smells like mediocrity to me. We really have to be careful with this IMO. Every deal has to make sense beyond a potential Auston departure. Gotta prepare for worst case scenario

Yeah the Tkachuk move should have happened earlier with the assets we wasted on Marleau/Foligno, fix the problem early and fix it well so you can stop bleeding assets patching it. It's too late for a move that size without a full downsizing, Simmonds and Folignos are what we're stuck with until liquidating the big 3 is actually on the table.

Have to imagine a year of Matthews at 750k-8mil in cash and Marner at 750k-8 mil in cash (~5.5 in cash average over 2 years if traded the day after we pay his bonus) will liquidate out to a fairly quick rebuild if it comes down to it. I just hope whoever's overseeing it actually sticks to their "vision" instead of trying to make everyone happy.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The Minnesota Wild fired Chuck Fletcher after 6 straight playoff appearances and 3x straight first round exits in 2018. It happens.

Chuck Fletcher missed the playoffs 3 times, and he was also GM for 9 years. So no, that's not an example of it happening.

 

[Stephen]

Chuck Fletcher missed the playoffs 3 times, and he was also GM for 9 years. So no, that's not an example of it happening.

Fletcher missed the playoffs at the start of his tenure 3 years in a row and went on a 6 year run in the playoffs when he was let go. So he wouldn’t have been fired in 2018 for missing the playoffs in 2010, 2011, 2012. That would clearly not make any sense. Unless we’re somehow firing Dubas for 2015-16.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Fletcher missed the playoffs at the start of his tenure 3 years in a row and went on a 6 year run in the playoffs when he was let to.

I said that I'd be interested to know of a GM that's been fired after just 4 years, after making the playoffs every year. You responded with a GM that filled neither criteria - a GM that didn't make the playoffs every year, who was given 9 years in his role. Even if we remove his first 3 years for some reason, that's still 6 years. Fletcher is not an example of the scenario being discussed happening.