The New and Improved , Kyle Dubas Discussion Thread

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Yeah I was thinking Muzzin or Brodie.

Ohhh yeah Brodie signing is right up there too.

 

[Apex Predator]

Does 60% soudnd like the same 7 people to you?

Source: Has Dubas failed at his job?

it’s more the same people complaining about Dubas. He didn’t say only 7 people think Dubas failed.

 

[ULF_55]

Too soon to judge.

To be successful is to win the Cup.

No success since 1967.

Some GM's take 8 years to win the Cup, and some never do.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Too soon to judge.

To be successful is to win the Cup.

No success since 1967.

Some GM's take 8 years to win the Cup, and some never do.

It’s the Leafs so we have to grade on a curve. Dubas is better than most GMs we’ve ha over the past 17 years save arguably one. Dubas though started in what was probably one of the most advantageous positions this franchise has had. The only other situation that comes close is Punch Imlach when he came on board for 79-80 before meticulously destroying that team.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

i understood what you said , what you don't understand is Lou was gone before he was permitted under the CBA to re-sign Maner and Mathews

You are correct. My timeline was way off. My other points still stand though

 

[Twine Tickler]

I know I probably come off as a Lou basher but I can't help it when he is constantly being compared to Dubas and that we wouldve been in better shape if he were here. No question Dubas could've handled contract disputes better with the big three but people saying Lou would've gotten them to better deals seems pretty ridiculous considering he has quite a list of giving out bad contracts the last 10+ years.

Why wasn't he more proactive with our big 3 before they had breakout seasons? He left a rookie GM to deal with 2 budding superstars and another star level player to negotiate contracts in a 1 year span. Maybe he could've had Marner signed to 7.5M after a 69 pt season instead of signing him after a 94 pts season.

Lou has done a lot of good over his career but also has a lot of question marks as well.

Although I agree the Lou love on here is hilarious. He would not have been able to speak with AM or MM prior to being in their final year of their deals. Which was after he was let go. He could have negotiated with Willy though. Something that would have been massively beneficial prior to Kyle signing JT. Had he been able to get Willy at say 5million AAV before the commencement of 2017-18 season, we could have used that deal to base MM and AM's future deals around, and not what JT eventually signed for. KD would have had more leverage with Mitch and Auston's camp, saying that Willy's deal is the comp to base the price point at (RFA), not JT's (UFA). Unfortunately JT's deal was the first ball to drop, and the Willy, Auston, and Mitch deals were subsequently based around that contract, which was a UFA price point.

KD also could have signed Mitch in the same capacity in the 2018-19 offseason, and undoubtingly could have had him for less than what he is currently making. All n all they both gambled, and both lost.

In retrospect, it was a poor organizational decision to very clearly have a Lou succession plan in place in those pivotal contract negotiating years. It was very clear that they were grooming Kyle to be the next GM, and he was actually somewhat in the running for the Job when Lou got it in 2015. They did not extend Lou's deal in the summer of 2017, which all but said the plan was to move onward to Kyle thereafter. Kyle was a promising young hockey mind, and if they wanted to keep him in the organization, which they did, this was the only way to do so. I think it was the right call personally.

Unfortunately Lou is not stupid, and therefore was probably well aware of the fact that he was not going to be there beyond the 2018 Season. So he made a stupid signing in Patty, and failed to look into extending Willy. Understandable to a degree, why think beyond that one year if that was all he was going to get.

But for those that think Lou would have created a culture and team that would have won TOR the cup, you are absolutely out of your minds. He has a HHOF coach who has managed to turn the pile of dog shit roster he ahs assembled into filet mingon. Trotz would never have been hired in TOR, as Lou had a strong relationship with Babs. Lou and Trotz's results on the island are unbelievably impressive, and Lou deserved full marks for bringing in Trotz, and signing players that are willing to give up personal achievements for the team. He has completely shifted the culture in NYI, and has got a buy in from his team that is truly enviable.

Fact is, he was never able to get that level of buy in from his players in TOR though. He shifted the culture in NYI with the hiring of Trotz. Not the players he's brought in. So it really just tells you that it's not entirely him. It is the coach he hires to implement this archaic military mindset, and players who don't typically have enough skill to think outside of that mold. That was not our core group unfortunately.

If history proves anything, His authoritarian ways and Trotz's over defensive style will eventually wear on the players. When the results eventually stop coming, this team will be a complete dumpster fire. When that does happen, they will be left with a collection of marginally talented NHL players all on term, all making 5 million+. At this point, people might think differently about Lou's almighty approach.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Ohhh yeah Brodie signing is right up there too.

The Kapanen trade is up there. I dont think anyone expected a mid first round pick plus a decent B prospect for him. I thought we would get a 2nd plus prospect. Amirov looks like he will be a pretty good player.

 

[ACC1224]

The Kapanen trade is up there. I dont think anyone expected a mid first round pick plus a decent B prospect for him. I thought we would get a 2nd plus prospect. Amirov looks like he will be a pretty good player.

Yep, good trade but wouldn't he also be a useful player to have kept?

 

[bossram]

Yep, good trade but wouldn't he also be a useful player to have kept?

They had to clear cap space and Kapanen was an expendable, non-core player. He got good value back, no complaints.

IMO Dubas' most critical mistakes, much more so than overpaying RFAs, are poor targets in the Kadri-Kerfoot/Barrie and Foligno trades. Just very poorly thought out and the wrong targets. The rationale for trading Kadri was there, but Kerfoot-Barrie as the centrepieces were...not good. The club needed a top-four RHD, but even without hindsight thinking Barrie was the worst fit imaginable.

Foligno...not much more needs to be said. Paid way too much for a marginal player in a season they could've done damage. Taylor Hall was calling.

 

[I am Canadian]

Yes and no. If we still had Lou, Nylander would be gone and Marner and Matthews probably make a little bit less but then again we would probably have numerous overpaid 4th liners which would account for the differences on savings.

I'm not sure you can 100% fault Dubas when the main issues is our best players don't show up in the playoffs. How do you account for that?

 

[ACC1224]

They had to clear cap space and Kapanen was an expendable, non-core player. He got good value back, no complaints.

.

He wouldn't have been a useful player to have kept?
Having to clear space is a problem he created.
I guess he made the best of a bad situation but not sure the team was better off for it.

 

[egd27]

It’s the Leafs so we have to grade on a curve. Dubas is better than most GMs we’ve ha over the past 17 years save arguably one. Dubas though started in what was probably one of the most advantageous positions this franchise has had. The only other situation that comes close is Punch Imlach when he came on board for 79-80 before meticulously destroying that team.

Think Punch Dubas could catch on ?

 

[Twine Tickler]

Yeah I was thinking Muzzin or Brodie.

Both were incredibly massive acquisitions to bring our Defense to a level of respectability we have not seen in decades. Not to mention Justin Holl, who was originally on loan from CHI to us in the AHL, who later signed an NHL deal with our club. Both of which Kyle orchestrated. And then the acquisition of Jack Campell

Last year we finished in the top 10 least goals allowed as a team finishing T7. Have any idea when the last time we've finished that high on that list?

the answer was the 2002-03 season.....almost 20 f***ing years of terrible defending/goaltending. So ya I'd say that is one thing Kyle has done well

 

[bossram]

He wouldn't have been a useful player to have kept?
Having to clear space is a problem he created.
I guess he made the best of a bad situation but not sure the team was better off for it.

Useful? Sure. How useful? Not really sure.

I honestly think the team is better off with Amirov.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Although I agree the Lou love on here is hilarious. He would not have been able to speak with AM or MM prior to being in their final year of their deals. Which was after he was let go. He could have negotiated with Willy though. Something that would have been massively beneficial prior to Kyle signing JT. Had he been able to get Willy at say 5million AAV before the commencement of 2017-18 season, we could have used that deal to base MM and AM's future deals around, and not what JT eventually signed for. KD would have had more leverage with Mitch and Auston's camp, saying that Willy's deal is the comp to base the price point at (RFA), not JT's (UFA). Unfortunately JT's deal was the first ball to drop, and the Willy, Auston, and Mitch deals were subsequently based around that contract, which was a UFA price point.

KD also could have signed Mitch in the same capacity in the 2018-19 offseason, and undoubtingly could have had him for less than what he is currently making. All n all they both gambled, and both lost.

In retrospect, it was a poor organizational decision to very clearly have a Lou succession plan in place in those pivotal contract negotiating years. It was very clear that they were grooming Kyle to be the next GM, and he was actually somewhat in the running for the Job when Lou got it in 2015. They did not extend Lou's deal in the summer of 2017, which all but said the plan was to move onward to Kyle thereafter. Kyle was a promising young hockey mind, and if they wanted to keep him in the organization, which they did, this was the only way to do so. I think it was the right call personally.

Unfortunately Lou is not stupid, and therefore was probably well aware of the fact that he was not going to be there beyond the 2018 Season. So he made a stupid signing in Patty, and failed to look into extending Willy. Understandable to a degree, why think beyond that one year if that was all he was going to get.

But for those that think Lou would have created a culture and team that would have won TOR the cup, you are absolutely out of your minds. He has a HHOF coach who has managed to turn the pile of dog shit roster he ahs assembled into filet mingon. Trotz would never have been hired in TOR, as Lou had a strong relationship with Babs. Lou and Trotz's results on the island are unbelievably impressive, and Lou deserved full marks for bringing in Trotz, and signing players that are willing to give up personal achievements for the team. He has completely shifted the culture in NYI, and has got a buy in from his team that is truly enviable.

Fact is, he was never able to get that level of buy in from his players in TOR though. He shifted the culture in NYI with the hiring of Trotz. Not the players he's brought in. So it really just tells you that it's not entirely him. It is the coach he hires to implement this archaic military mindset, and players who don't typically have enough skill to think outside of that mold. That was not our core group unfortunately.

If history proves anything, His authoritarian ways and Trotz's over defensive style will eventually wear on the players. When the results eventually stop coming, this team will be a complete dumpster fire. When that does happen, they will be left with a collection of marginally talented NHL players all on term, all making 5 million+. At this point, people might think differently about Lou's almighty approach.

The best part is watching the same people who insisted Bozak and Kessel are the definition of 1-way floating losers that will never win a thing do a full 180 and talk about how we should have kept our elite "two-way" C in Bozak over Tavares. Komarov went from a broken grinder getting replaced by Johnsson in the playoffs to a super valuable veteran who knows what it takes to win overnight, curious why he didn't do what it took to win in Toronto. Maybe if we spent an extra 2nd on another Plekanec instead of wasting it on Korshkov/Rasanen we would have had a cup by now on the backs of a Komarov-Bozak-Plekanec line.

 

[Twine Tickler]

People dislike him because the team is under achieving.
It's probably more accurate to say that 90% of the people that like him do so because of his age.

Honestly, I think what I most like about him is his ability to shift gears.

Prime example. Lou pays a 1st and a 4th round pick for Kyle Palmeri at the TDL this year. Kyle goes on to record 13pts, in the 36GP as an islander between the regular season and playoffs combined.

Now some may argue that his "strong" playoffs of 9pts in the 19GP was worthy of his 5million x 4 years w/ NTC. For me, that is an overpayment of about 500k to 1 million dollars, for a guy who was 7th on his team in pts in the playoffs. Despite having a "strong" showing. But nevertheless, this was a player Lou seemed hellbent on bringing back because he payed to acquire him.

13pts in 36 games would usually constitute as a failure in most circles, but because this is a Trotz system, PTS are irrelevant and we have to say he does the little things that move the needle for them.

Fact is, there was no doubt that Palmeri was resigning in NYI, because Lou will not contradict himself by moving on from a player he payed a good price to acquire. Not all deals work out in your favor, this particular one is debatable TBH.

It's impossible to win every deal you make. Sometimes having the humility to walk away from a mistake is the best decision you can make. Like Foligno and Barrie for example. Not sure Lou has that in him TBH. To be honest its just not something you see often at all in pro sport.

KD has also shifted from a small skilled team with no veteran presence to a heavier team with more leadership. Last year was a great team. People forget that. It unfortunately did not work out. But KD assembled a team that answered many questions from the year prior. 1 of which was to bring in an actual defensemen in place of Barrie, whom he made the mistake of acquiring the year prior.

People will say well why doesn't he shift gears with this core? There are plenty of reasons to still believe in a core group that is largely in their early to mid 20's. There will be a time to do that, It just the very last stone to turn over. I don't think that time is now personally

 

[Ashdown2]

People dislike him because the team is under achieving.
It's probably more accurate to say that 90% of the people that like him do so because of his age.

i disagree. the same people that hate him would be the same people that would say he should get no credit if the leafs made the finals because he was on the job for 2 years. and give all the credit to lou.
There is a difference being underachieving and being a bad GM.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Although I agree the Lou love on here is hilarious. He would not have been able to speak with AM or MM prior to being in their final year of their deals. Which was after he was let go. He could have negotiated with Willy though. Something that would have been massively beneficial prior to Kyle signing JT. Had he been able to get Willy at say 5million AAV before the commencement of 2017-18 season, we could have used that deal to base MM and AM's future deals around, and not what JT eventually signed for. KD would have had more leverage with Mitch and Auston's camp, saying that Willy's deal is the comp to base the price point at (RFA), not JT's (UFA). Unfortunately JT's deal was the first ball to drop, and the Willy, Auston, and Mitch deals were subsequently based around that contract, which was a UFA price point.

KD also could have signed Mitch in the same capacity in the 2018-19 offseason, and undoubtingly could have had him for less than what he is currently making. All n all they both gambled, and both lost.

In retrospect, it was a poor organizational decision to very clearly have a Lou succession plan in place in those pivotal contract negotiating years. It was very clear that they were grooming Kyle to be the next GM, and he was actually somewhat in the running for the Job when Lou got it in 2015. They did not extend Lou's deal in the summer of 2017, which all but said the plan was to move onward to Kyle thereafter. Kyle was a promising young hockey mind, and if they wanted to keep him in the organization, which they did, this was the only way to do so. I think it was the right call personally.

Unfortunately Lou is not stupid, and therefore was probably well aware of the fact that he was not going to be there beyond the 2018 Season. So he made a stupid signing in Patty, and failed to look into extending Willy. Understandable to a degree, why think beyond that one year if that was all he was going to get.

But for those that think Lou would have created a culture and team that would have won TOR the cup, you are absolutely out of your minds. He has a HHOF coach who has managed to turn the pile of dog shit roster he ahs assembled into filet mingon. Trotz would never have been hired in TOR, as Lou had a strong relationship with Babs. Lou and Trotz's results on the island are unbelievably impressive, and Lou deserved full marks for bringing in Trotz, and signing players that are willing to give up personal achievements for the team. He has completely shifted the culture in NYI, and has got a buy in from his team that is truly enviable.

Fact is, he was never able to get that level of buy in from his players in TOR though. He shifted the culture in NYI with the hiring of Trotz. Not the players he's brought in. So it really just tells you that it's not entirely him. It is the coach he hires to implement this archaic military mindset, and players who don't typically have enough skill to think outside of that mold. That was not our core group unfortunately.

If history proves anything, His authoritarian ways and Trotz's over defensive style will eventually wear on the players. When the results eventually stop coming, this team will be a complete dumpster fire. When that does happen, they will be left with a collection of marginally talented NHL players all on term, all making 5 million+. At this point, people might think differently about Lou's almighty approach.

This is all good fair analysis. I had the timeline messed up. I will give Dubas the same criticism for not signing M&M a lot sooner.

I give Trotz and Mitch Korn most of the credit for their recent successes. Its no coincidence that after Lou hired the best coach in the league (imo) coming off a Cup win and best defensive coach as well as arguably the best goalie coach in the league that all of a sudden they went from being a wreck defensively and sub .500 win% to being a 48-27-7 team with the best defensive metrics and best goalie tandem. All while bringing back essentially the same roster minus their best player in Tavares.

I will be the first to admit that the Isles have far exceed my expectations based on the age of the team, their cap and prospect pool but I still can't see them being able to repeat this for much longer. Their forward group is built up of power forwards who are either in their 30s or approaching their 30s, which doesn't age well. Many of which who were signed to long term deals at 5+M. They still have a pretty bad prospect pool which won't do them many favors when their aging players are injured or gone. Plus when the Barzal, Sorokin, Dobson, Wahlstrom, Beauvillier, and pulock deals expire, they will likely be in line for raises (some of them big) and will still have most of their aging players on their cap with most likely some difficulty moving them.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Lou wasn't the GM when he could have re-signed M&M and you can bash the f***ing hell out of Lou and blame him for everything that's gone wrong since Dubie was promoted but the fact remains that if we have one more failure Dubie will be gone .

That is speculation, not fact.

 

[Sypher04]

What did I say that was a lie?

I don't see any lies being said.

well, for starters, this:

Him going down to the final few minutes with Nylander and then giving Nylander exactly what he was asking for should have been Clue #1 that Dubas had no idea what he was doing and was in way over his head.

which we know to be a lie

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I do think this is the team's last opportunity to do something positive in the playoffs.

But I don't really see Dubas having any better on-ice stats this year. I don't think he's going to step up in the playoffs, or make a key save, or knock someone on their butt.

Regardless of contracts, if your number 1 line isn't leading the team, that is the biggest problem.

Oh yeah definitely.

 

[Dekes For Days]

him going down to the final few minutes with Nylander and then giving Nylander exactly what he was asking

Except that didn't happen at all. If anything, it was the exact opposite.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Honestly, I think what I most like about him is his ability to shift gears.

Prime example. Lou pays a 1st and a 4th round pick for Kyle Palmeri at the TDL this year. Kyle goes on to record 13pts, in the 36GP as an islander between the regular season and playoffs combined.

Now some may argue that his "strong" playoffs of 9pts in the 19GP was worthy of his 5million x 4 years w/ NTC. For me, that is an overpayment of about 500k to 1 million dollars, for a guy who was 7th on his team in pts in the playoffs. Despite having a "strong" showing. But nevertheless, this was a player Lou seemed hellbent on bringing back because he payed to acquire him.

13pts in 36 games would usually constitute as a failure in most circles, but because this is a Trotz system, PTS are irrelevant and we have to say he does the little things that move the needle for them.

Fact is, there was no doubt that Palmeri was resigning in NYI, because Lou will not contradict himself by moving on from a player he payed a good price to acquire. Not all deals work out in your favor, this particular one is debatable TBH.

It's impossible to win every deal you make. Sometimes having the humility to walk away from a mistake is the best decision you can make. Like Foligno and Barrie for example. Not sure Lou has that in him TBH. To be honest its just not something you see often at all in pro sport.

KD has also shifted from a small skilled team with no veteran presence to a heavier team with more leadership. Last year was a great team. People forget that. It unfortunately did not work out. But KD assembled a team that answered many questions from the year prior. 1 of which was to bring in an actual defensemen in place of Barrie, whom he made the mistake of acquiring the year prior.

People will say well why doesn't he shift gears with this core? There are plenty of reasons to still believe in a core group that is largely in their early to mid 20's. There will be a time to do that, It just the very last stone to turn over. I don't think that time is now personally

I think him shifting gears every time the media is mean about his team is a weakness, we'd be better off if he hard committed to building the fastest team in the league. We don't really have an identity right now, we're just pretty good at most things but not the most/best anything. I get the Foligno/Simmonds pivot at this point because you missed the window for going all-in on speed but even then I'd rather him take a bigger risk to fix the percieved toughness problem long-term even if it means turning Marner into Tkachuk+. Shifting gears often makes sense for mechanical systemic things like their target draft profile or how they run breakouts, you burn a lot of assets shifting gears on big picture things.

That being said, Marner's value is going to be at its highest this off-season after his bonus is paid before his NMC kicks in and if Dubas is still here he might have one last trick up his sleeve.

 

[hotpaws]

That is speculation, not fact.

fact - GM's who's teams continually perform poorly get replaced

do you need examples ?

 

[Leaf Fans]

fact - GM's who's teams continually perform poorly get replaced

do you need examples ?

Speculation. We have no idea what will happen. It is a possibility, not a fact.