And also, were the Knights even a powerhouse? Their other goalies put up some pretty horrific numbers.
The Never Too Early 2021 NHL Entry Draft Discussion
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SeaOfBlue
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They were the top team in the Western Conference, which is a lot tougher than the Eastern Conference. Only Ottawa had more points in the entire OHL.
They were still winning even with those goalies in net. Myskiw (their backup) had a 12-6-1 record with a .891 save percentage. Brochu was good, but he was still benefitted from the team and 5'11" is not something teams are going to get over. I think there are only two guys who are under 6'0" in the NHL.
SeaOfBlue
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There is Saros and Halak too. Literally it for goalies under 6'0" right now, and the list doesn't expand much if you want to include guys who are exactly 6'0" either (i.e. Bernier, Raanta, and a few others).
Unfortunately, both of them were leading their teams to medals at the WJC U18 and being MVP's of the tournament at Brochu's age.
Zach Sawchenko (who is actually 6'1" now) and Griffin Outhouse. Outhouse was putting up the kinds of numbers than 19 and 20 year old goalies put up as a 17 year old. Never had a season below a .913 in the WHL, and he wasn't playing on a powerhouse team.
If you want a more recent example, just look at Dustin Wolf. Barely squeaked into the 7th round in 2019. Now he had other issues beyond just being small (had some iffy positioning and did not possess elite athleticism IIRC), and his numbers were drastically inflated by Everett's stout defensive structure, but he had a .931 as DY guy. 95% of goalies never reach those numbers at any point, never mind at 17. Then he repeated it as a DY+1. He was 5'11.5". We will see if he makes teams eat crow but small goalies aren't exactly knocking down the door in the NHL right now. That's why we only see three under 6'0", and maybe just as many who are truly considered 6'0". 6'1"/6'2" is often considered the cutoff if you have well-above average positioning and athleticism.
SeaOfBlue
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Speaking of Dustin Wolf and Everett, I hope Braden Holt gets a chance to play. It's not going to be easy for him constantly going up against Spokane (who had last year's top scorer in Adam Beckman plus Jack Finley and others) and Portland (who has a number of higher end 2021 forward prospects and of course Seth Jarvis), but he has a lot of promise and not a lot of hype right now. The Leafs could use a new CHL project to pair alongside their longer term project in Akhtyamov, and the Leafs could even double down and add another longer term goalie project given Akhtyamov's uncertain timeline (he may not come over for 5+ years) and projectability.
Fogelhund
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Loved watching that kid in the WJC. Just a huge C, that can use his body. He started out the season well, scoring eight points in 19 games, which is impressive for his age in a pro league. Since returning to the Liga, he's put up three points in 14 games, which isn't so great. He's probably a second round pick.
Here is a good writeup about him.
Scouting Report: Samuel Helenius - Smaht Scouting
He probably ends up being a solid 3C in the NHL... with the size and physicality, that would be a real nice add to our squad, but I don't see him being much more than a 25-30 point guy at best.
Cam Whynot is a guy i'm warming up to the more footage I watch. Stylistically, he looks like the prototypical Dubas transitional defender with great gap control and efficient passing.
He completely destroyed Novia Scotia bantam and midget tier, which created some lofty expectations that he hasn't really lived up to with Halifax. His skating with the puck is jaw dropping but its pretty clear that his flashy tools were so far ahead of his peers at lower levels that it allowed him to dominate. Might not have developed the IQ as a result (biggest question mark). Even still, his puck moving ability/tools and his chemistry with a high-end player in Barron make me think he can be a great potential 2nd pair defender ala Gardiner. There's something I see in him with the eye test. Like him outside of the top 50.
He completely destroyed Novia Scotia bantam and midget tier, which created some lofty expectations that he hasn't really lived up to with Halifax. His skating with the puck is jaw dropping but its pretty clear that his flashy tools were so far ahead of his peers at lower levels that it allowed him to dominate. Might not have developed the IQ as a result (biggest question mark). Even still, his puck moving ability/tools and his chemistry with a high-end player in Barron make me think he can be a great potential 2nd pair defender ala Gardiner. There's something I see in him with the eye test. Like him outside of the top 50.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
As Fogulhund said he had a great start to the season. Mid-1st round pick production, but the underlying stats in Liiga were...... dog shit? For a guy his size id say his skating is excellent. He's no burner, but I'd consider him a good skater if you didn't even take size into the equation.
I had him as a borderline 1st rounder around the New Year, but the dip in production plus those horrid underlying stats means he's probably a borderline second, maybe 3rd rounder unless he shows it wasn't a fluke.
You got a top-5 pick lying around?
Try and convince a bottom 5 team that Tavares isn't declining and get 1 that way. Maybe Ottawa is close to a playoff spot around the deadline, swap Andersen and Tavares for Murray and 1st round pick. Murray might be shit for the season but playoffs he's performed.
And let the flaming begin.
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
Don't worry about flaming, I'm not into setting TRASH on fire.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
One guy I was lowkey hoping would drop from not playing was Guenther.
Already has 2 goals and 2 primary assists in his first game back in the WHL and the second period hasn't even ended yet.
Already has 2 goals and 2 primary assists in his first game back in the WHL and the second period hasn't even ended yet.
MVPMatthews
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- Feb 11, 2021
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Tough to look and see what the leafs will target because usually Dubas supports just taking the BPA. I really hope we don't trade the pick because I love draft time, but I can see this one being traded if we get someone huge for our playoff push. Value similar to the Muzzin trade would be a steal..
If we do keep the pick though, wouldn't be surprised if we were looking for a strong goalie prospect. With the rumors that we were in on the Askarov sweepstakes
If we do keep the pick though, wouldn't be surprised if we were looking for a strong goalie prospect. With the rumors that we were in on the Askarov sweepstakes
SeaOfBlue
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Cossa is the only one who would possibly fall in the range of our 1st and he hasn't played much... and it is already risky enough to select a goalie in the first round.
My hope is a Lucius or Raty fall to us.
SeaOfBlue
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A couple of Russians who are really falling off right now are Vsevolod Gaidamak and Daniil Lazutin.
Lazutin was a top 15 talent earlier in the year but has a lot of red flags based on his play this year. Skating looks off, he is very inconsistent with his IQ and effort, doesn't use his size to his advantage, etc. However if he makes it to our later round picks, I am taking him and strongly encouraging him to come to the CHL next year so we can closely monitor and work on his game.
Gaidamak had a later start to the year and is not impressing as much offensively as I would have hoped out of a higher round player, but he has nice mid-round potential as a hard-working middle 6 two-way center. I haven't bothered sorting out where guys land because the WHL and OHL still need to get started, and a good amount of the quality in this draft comes from those two leagues. He already committed to the Ottawa 67's and may even come over if they start late enough, since his Russian season may already be done by then.
Lazutin was a top 15 talent earlier in the year but has a lot of red flags based on his play this year. Skating looks off, he is very inconsistent with his IQ and effort, doesn't use his size to his advantage, etc. However if he makes it to our later round picks, I am taking him and strongly encouraging him to come to the CHL next year so we can closely monitor and work on his game.
Gaidamak had a later start to the year and is not impressing as much offensively as I would have hoped out of a higher round player, but he has nice mid-round potential as a hard-working middle 6 two-way center. I haven't bothered sorting out where guys land because the WHL and OHL still need to get started, and a good amount of the quality in this draft comes from those two leagues. He already committed to the Ottawa 67's and may even come over if they start late enough, since his Russian season may already be done by then.
SeaOfBlue
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Currently the Leafs prospect depth chart in net looks something like this:
G Joe Woll - AHL; 3 year NCAA + 4 year AHL project. 2 more years of AHL likely after this year.
G Ian Scott - AHL; 2 year CHL + 4 year AHL project. 2 more years of AHL likely after this year.
G Artur Akhtyamov - KHL; 6 year project with at least 5 years in the KHL. Either 4 more years of KHL and 1 year of AHL, or 5 years of KHL and straight to NHL, after this year.
Now this is just according to planning. Some of these guys may accelerate their timelines, or bust outright. The Marlies also continuously develop an goalie on an AHL contract as well so one of them may impress, and the Leafs can look at UFA prospects as well. As of right now the timeline has Woll-Scott splitting the Marlies net for the next couple of years (Hutch could also be in the mix here as well) until one takes over in the NHL (and the other either gets moved or becomes a depth guy we put on waivers). Also, with the uncertainty regarding Russian goalies' timelines, they are pretty much just like "floaters" in the planning system and you start planning for them if/when they are closer to being brought over.
If we go by this planning, we should be looking at another 2 year project for sure. Since this is a good year for goalies, it may be worthwhile to look at a 3-5 year term guy as well. Most of the long term goalie prospects are not high end quality this year anyways.
Short Term Goalie Prospects (1 or 2 year projects until AHL)
G Sebastian Cossa - Edmonton (WHL) - 1 or 2 year CHL project (top 50)
G Tristan Lennox - Saginaw (OHL) - 1 or 2 year CHL project (top 75-100)
G Joe Vrbetic - North Bay (OHL) - 1 or 2 year CHL project (top 125)
G Ben Gaudreau - Sarnia (OHL) - 2 year CHL project (top 125)
--
G Kari Piiroinen - TUTO (FINLAND-2) - 2 year Liiga project
G Braden Holt - Everett (WHL) - 2 year CHL project
G Talyn Boyko - Tri-City (WHL) - 1 or 2 year CHL project
G Carter Serhyenko - Prince Albert (WHL) - 1 or 2 year CHL project
Long Term Goalie Prospects (3+ year projects until AHL)
G William Jupiter - HV71 U20 (SWEDEN-JR) - 4 year SHL project (top 125).
--
G Aku Koskenvuo - HIFK U20 (FINLAND-JR.) - 1 year USHL project + 3 or 4 year NCAA project
G Rasmus Korhonen - Assat U20 (FINLAND-JR.) - 4 year Liiga project.
Flexible Term Goalie Prospects (no set timeline; i.e. Russians or CHL Imports)
G Jesper Wallstadt - Lulea (SWEDEN) - Could end up in the AHL after 1 year, or re-sign in SHL (top 10)
--
G Maxim Motorygin - Dynamo Mosvka (RUSSIA-JR.) - 5 year KHL timeline.
G Kirill Gerasimyuk - St. Petersburg (RUSSIA-JR.) - 6 year KHL timeline.
G Patrik Hamrla - Karlovy Vary (CZECH) - Potential CHL Import pick (2 year CHL project + potential 2 year Czech project) or 4 year Czech project.
G Alexei Kolosov - Minsk (RUSSIA) - 1 year CHL project + potential 4 year KHL project.
Above the line are top 125 talents. Below the line are round 5-7 picks. Subject to change as I haven't started formally created tiers yet.
Vrbetic and Boyko are absolutely massive. Would be interested in taking a shot at one of them.
I am also curious about Lennox seeing as he's spending some time with the Marlies. Had a really rough year last year though despite one of his easiest workloads.
Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Stephen
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If you look at what the Los Angeles Kings goalie factory has done the past few years, they seem to just target good athletes and build them into good netminders over a number of years like an MLB team might build up a pitcher. Martin Jones and Cal Petersen seem to have come out of nowhere and Jack Campbell was definitely a deep dive reclamation project. Seems like a very different way of identifying and developing goalie talent than worrying about what some kid might be doing at the OHL level.
Also, with Woll, Scott and Akhtyamov, the Leafs seem to be drafting a goalie every year looking for upside. Scott had a unique breakout year a few seasons ago in the WHL but seems to have been wiped out through various injury and pandemic related issues. Just got to hope someone starts emerging like a Shesterkin, Dostal, Primeau or something like that.
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
SeaOfBlue
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I think the Leafs look for quality over quantity. They want to make sure when they get a goalie, there is room for them to come in and develop properly. Then if there is a gap, they look for guys they can sign as free agents or develop on AHL contracts. LA has had a lot of success with guys who weren't taken very high.
Right now the Leafs need a short term guy and then if they can find a Cal Petersen as a free agent when a gap opens up (or 5th round pick), then bonus.
Stephen
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Well, I think they basically finished the Kaskisuo experiment this last offseason but he was a Cal Petersen project that didn’t pan out.
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