The Never Too Early 2021 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[Morgs]

I don't really have a formal formula, because it weighs intangible things like IQ and character in there as well, so right now I am working on something that makes non-statistical factors (like IQ and character) quantifiable. That way I don't need to just follow trends and have to figure it out manually. There will still be subjectivity and bias (because there are no objective ways to evaluate IQ and character at this point), but it should be handled a lot better than in the past at least.

Interesting. That's part of what I'm attempting to figure out too. I've decided I'm going to adopt a style similar to Scouching in how he uses his five categories to grade players, but I'm going to grade the things I believe that best exemplify the potential of a player while still being heavily bias by stats & analytics.

I'd be interested to see if you ever get your formula put together.

 

[Cor]

This year is going to be an interesting case study of a draft.

This years draft crop will have less information, less certain scouting reports than ever before really.

There’s a lot of prospects that haven’t played this year, or have barely played this year. There’s a lot of uncertainty whether a OHL season is even going to be allowed to happen.

It’ll be interesting to see, if in 5 years from now, there’s a lot more later round steal than an average draft, due to 1. higher ranked players not having the chance to play themselves out of the higher rounds and 2. Lower ranked players not having the chance to play themselves up the rankings which both happen regularly.

 

[Maplebeasts]

This going to be the year where the men separate themselves from the boys when it comes to amateur scouting.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This year is going to be an interesting case study of a draft.

This years draft crop will have less information, less certain scouting reports than ever before really.

There’s a lot of prospects that haven’t played this year, or have barely played this year. There’s a lot of uncertainty whether a OHL season is even going to be allowed to happen.

It’ll be interesting to see, if in 5 years from now, there’s a lot more later round steal than an average draft, due to 1. higher ranked players not having the chance to play themselves out of the higher rounds and 2. Lower ranked players not having the chance to play themselves up the rankings which both happen regularly.

One guy to really look out for, especially with our second round pick (if he is available there): Artyom Grushnikov. He was a top 15-25 pick before this year but has yet to play a game.

Needs bulk, likely not a huge point producer, but could be a steal in the 2nd round if he makes it there...

Or a total flop since who knows how good he is right now

 

[Morgs]

.

Big news

 

[Maplebeasts]

Oskar Olausson impressed me today. I also liked what I saw from Svozil on the Czech side.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Oskar Olausson impressed me today. I also liked what I saw from Svozil on the Czech side.

Canonica looked good in the Switzerland-Slovakia game yesterday.

Knak and Meier could be late round guys. Meier has good skating and puck moving ability, but needs work defensively and is on the smaller side for a defenseman. Knak improved his skating and offense, but is still not going to be more than a bottom 6 two-way winger.

Myklukha and Stacha may also be late round options, but once again, nothing super special.

Canonica and Meier are the only ones on my board right now, and Meier is a late round option on it. IDK where Canonica will fall in the end (it mostly depends on this tournament), but right now I think top 75-125 is where I would put him right now.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Some top prospects in the QMJHL have been (or may) be moved. Isaac Belliveau has already moved from Rimouski to Gatineau, and we may see Joshua Roy (potential 1st round pick; 1st overall QMJHL selection) move from Saint John. A bunch of lesser guys have already been moved around too.

 

[Morgs]

Some top prospects in the QMJHL have been (or may) be moved. Isaac Belliveau has already moved from Rimouski to Gatineau, and we may see Joshua Roy (potential 1st round pick; 1st overall QMJHL selection) move from Saint John. A bunch of lesser guys have already been moved around too.

Roy gives me Veleno vibes in that a change of scenery may be what he needs to "explode", but I'm also happy to see him drop to us in the 1st/2nd round... so stay on Saint John until next season, THEN explode. I have him 16th right now: good production (on a bad team), late birthday, high IQ, and no real weaknesses... I simply don't understand how he doesn't get more top-20 love, let alone be a lock for the 1st round.

Belliveau I thought I was going to love looking at his 2019-20 production, but man he's fallen off a cliff this season on a piss poor Rimouski team. Of all the players that have actually played a game this season he's got the largest drop in NHLe (except for guys that went to a worse league because of Covid, but I can't count them). I have him outside the 1st right now, but a good end to this season could get him in my 1st no problem. Very interested to see if he can be as good as he was in his D-1 in Gatineau, but a poor draft season for any reason is a bad sign.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Roy gives me Veleno vibes in that a change of scenery may be what he needs to "explode", but I'm also happy to see him drop to us in the 1st/2nd round... so stay on Saint John until next season, THEN explode. I have him 16th right now: good production (on a bad team), late birthday, high IQ, and no real weaknesses... I simply don't understand how he doesn't get more top-20 love, let alone be a lock for the 1st round.

Belliveau I thought I was going to love looking at his 2019-20 production, but man he's fallen off a cliff this season on a piss poor Rimouski team. Of all the players that have actually played a game this season he's got the largest drop in NHLe (except for guys that went to a worse league because of Covid, but I can't count them). I have him outside the 1st right now, but a good end to this season could get him in my 1st no problem. Very interested to see if he can be as good as he was in his D-1 in Gatineau, but a poor draft season for any reason is a bad sign.

Saint John is not really a "bad" team. They have loads of offensive talent (I believe he is on a line with Peter Reynolds, who should be an early 2nd round pick himself). They just have little defensive talent and their goaltending is very suspect.

They may be adding guys to help with their defensive problems, and I bet they surprise a lot of teams in the QMJHL after that happens.

EDIT: I will also add that some of their offensive talent is only 17 years old, so they still have a lot of growth left in them.

 

[Fogelhund]

Wrong thread here for sure... not sure how that happened... was supposed to be around the league...

 

[Morgs]

A little old but I'd say worth the risk. Probably could play games for us immediately.

 

[Fogelhund]

A little old but I'd say worth the risk. Probably could play games for us immediately.

Might somehow have ended up in the wrong thread.

 

[VanW27]

This year is going to be an interesting case study of a draft.

This years draft crop will have less information, less certain scouting reports than ever before really.

There’s a lot of prospects that haven’t played this year, or have barely played this year. There’s a lot of uncertainty whether a OHL season is even going to be allowed to happen.

It’ll be interesting to see, if in 5 years from now, there’s a lot more later round steal than an average draft, due to 1. higher ranked players not having the chance to play themselves out of the higher rounds and 2. Lower ranked players not having the chance to play themselves up the rankings which both happen regularly.

Anyone remember Nick Ebert going from top 10 pick in pre season rankings to last pick in the 2012 draft (211 overall). A lot can change over the course of a season.

Although Ebert has actually had a pretty good pro career (AHL/KHL/SHL) and could still see some NHL time so the drop all the way to the last pick was likely at least partially fueled by teams being scared away by the fact he was dropping so much.

 

[Cor]

Anyone remember Nick Ebert going from top 10 pick in pre season rankings to last pick in the 2012 draft (211 overall). A lot can change over the course of a season.

Although Ebert has actually had a pretty good pro career (AHL/KHL/SHL) and could still see some NHL time so the drop all the way to the last pick was likely at least partially fueled by teams being scared away by the fact he was dropping so much.

That is what I mean. This season, there is less opportunity for players to play their way down the rankings, as well as less opportunity for players to play up the rankings, at least in a consensus form.

I wonder if we'll see more of a difference between the public rankings, and the private rankings. As well as in 5 years, more earlier round busts/late round "steals" due to it

 

[VanW27]

That is what I mean. This season, there is less opportunity for players to play their way down the rankings, as well as less opportunity for players to play up the rankings, at least in a consensus form.

I wonder if we'll see more of a difference between the public rankings, and the private rankings. As well as in 5 years, more earlier round busts/late round "steals" due to it

I'm sure we will, they'll be players taken in the 1st round, even at the top of the first round who would have played their way down into a complete afterthought at that pick.

Not a great year to have a high pick, and through a combination of luck and good scouting some teams are going to make out like bandits.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Anyone remember Nick Ebert going from top 10 pick in pre season rankings to last pick in the 2012 draft (211 overall). A lot can change over the course of a season.

Although Ebert has actually had a pretty good pro career (AHL/KHL/SHL) and could still see some NHL time so the drop all the way to the last pick was likely at least partially fueled by teams being scared away by the fact he was dropping so much.

Ebert had defensive issues and his best season was his D-1 year. He did worse in his draft year and progressively did worse after that.

He did net Jack Campbell for LA though, so it was not all bad.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Some major waves in the QMJHL involving some 2021 NHL draft prospects:

Joshua Roy is heading to Sherbrooke. I guess he really did want out of Saint John (and perhaps to stay in Quebec). He is going to have to really prove himself.

Sherbrooke also got a very soft deal for Samuel Poulin and Xavier Bernard, which likely means they are getting compensation after the season. I think it will involve Justin Robidas, another higher quality 2021 NHL draft prospect and son of Stephane Robidas (former Leafs player and current Leafs Director of Player Development who is also a part-owner of Sherbrooke), but the rumours are that the deal is "final" (i.e. that is all Sherbrooke will get for those two players). However, it could just mean they are going to make a separate deal rather than a deal which directly involves the picks in the Poulin/Bernard deals.

Justin Gill, a potential mid-late round 2021 prospect, went to Sherbrooke from Charlottetown in a deal for Patrick Guay, who could be a potential OA candidate this year.

Tyson Hinds went to Rimouski from Shawinigan and has already put up 3 assists in 2 games. He was a potential mid-late round candidate, but has size and some prestige, so he could rise up some draft boards if he continues to show his worth in better minutes.

Isaac Belliveau, a potential early round candidate, went to Gatineau from Rimouski. He has struggled since Lafreniere left, and is likely a product of him, but Gatineau has a ton of young talent for him.

There will likely be more trades too.

 

[hockeywiz542]

2021 NHL Draft top 32 prospects include Power, Edvinsson, Clarke - NHL.com

1. Owen Power (6-foot-6, 214 pounds), D, Michigan (NCAA) -- Power is a big presence with good vision and strength and has the look of a top-pair NHL defenseman. The 18-year-old leads Michigan with 23 blocked shots and is tied for the lead with two power-play goals.

2. Simon Edvinsson (6-4, 198), D, Frolunda (SWE) -- Edvinsson is physical left-shot defenseman with a good set of tools, including mobility, skating and a strong shot. The 17-year-old has one assist in 10 games in the Swedish Hockey League, the top professional league in Sweden.

3. Brandt Clarke (6-1, 180), D, Barrie (OHL) -- Clarke is a mobile puck-moving right-handed shot who is considered an excellent passer and playmaker with great vision. The 17-year-old is playing on loan with Nove Zamsky in the Slovak Extraliga, Slovakia's top professional league, where he does not have a point in eight games. He led Ontario Hockey League rookie defensemen with 38 points (six goals, 32 assists) in 57 games last season.

4. Matthew Beniers (6-1, 174), C, Michigan (NCAA) -- The 18-year-old left-handed shot can get to top speed quickly. Beniers helped the United States win the 2021 IIHF World Junior Championship as the youngest player on the roster; he was the center on the second line, scored three points (one goal, two assists) and averaged 17:05 of ice time in seven games. He's scored 13 points (four goals, nine assists) in 13 games with Michigan.

5. Luke Hughes (6-2, 176), D, USA U-18 (NTDP) -- Hughes is a solid puck mover with good poise who is committed to play at Michigan next season. He has a quick release from the point and has scored 25 points (six goals, 19 assists) in 23 games this season. The 17-year-old is the youngest brother of Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes and New Jersey Devils forward Jack Hughes.

6. Kent Johnson (6-0, 166), C, Michigan (NCAA) -- Johnson is an offensive sniper who plays with pace and skill, and is crafty with the puck. The 18-year-old leads Michigan with 18 points (six goals, 12 assists) in 15 games.

7. Dylan Guenther (6-0, 166), RW, Edmonton (WHL) -- Guenther is a highly skilled, elite goal scorer who is quick on his skates. The 17-year-old is playing on loan with Sherwood Park of the Alberta Junior Hockey League, where he has scored five points (three goals, two assists) in four games.

8. William Eklund (5-10, 176), LW, Djurgarden (SWE) -- Eklund has good speed, puck skills and vision. The 18-year-old has scored 14 points (seven goals, seven assists) in 23 SHL games playing on a line with Alexander Holtz, a New Jersey Devils first-round pick (No. 7) in the 2020 NHL Draft.

9. Carson Lambos (6-0, 200), D, Winnipeg (WHL) -- Lambos is a two-way defenseman who has shown good patience in the defensive zone and in transition. The 18-year-old is playing on loan with JYP in Finland's junior league and has scored 11 points (two goals, nine assists) in 12 games. Last season he led WHL rookie defensemen with 32 points (eight goals, 24 assists) in 57 games.

10. Aatu Raty (6-2, 185), C, Karpat (FIN) -- Raty is a strong skater with speed, balance and excellent puck control. The 18-year-old has scored three goals in 10 games in Liiga, Finland's top professional league.

 

[Morgs]

Edvinsson being that high is strange, but he's big and can skate so its typical for NHL.com.

Raty being that high is insane to me.

Eklund too low (obviously). He's f***ing disgusting and his numbers are insane for a D0 player in the SHL.



I also am starting to feel like the #1 pick should be a race between Eklund & Hughes. I dont think anyone else is close right now.

 

[tmlms13]

This is like in 2014 talking about the 2014 draft when we all know what is coming in the 2015 draft.

Lets talk about 2022. Shane Wright, Matthew Savoie, Bradd Lambert.

Best "top 3" is a long long time. Plenty of top 2 combos out there, but very very few that have a top 3 this hyped

They'd all be #1 in 2021. Anyone know if/where Wright and Savoie are playing

 

[Morgs]

This is like in 2014 talking about the 2014 draft when we all know what is coming in the 2015 draft.

Lets talk about 2022. Shane Wright, Matthew Savoie, Bradd Lambert.

Best "top 3" is a long long time. Plenty of top 2 combos out there, but very very few that have a top 3 this hyped

They'd all be #1 in 2021. Anyone know if/where Wright and Savoie are playing

Yeah 2022 should be insane. Even 2023....

Savoie has actually played some AJHL and USHL games this season. Alberta just announced they're gonna let the Central division play. Might mean that Manitoba follows, and Savoie may get some more WHL games.

Wright on the other hand might lose an entire season of development. Completely unprecedented for a prospect this level.

I'd probably say right now I'd go:

Wright
Lambert
-
Savoie

But Savoie could close the gap.

 

[Fogelhund]

Is there even going to be a 2021 draft? I know that there was some talk, that they might move the draft, to have two drafts in 2022... one for the late 2002/03 as one draft and then the late 03/04 as a second draft.

 

[tmlms13]

Yeah 2022 should be insane. Even 2023....

Savoie has actually played some AJHL and USHL games this season. Alberta just announced they're gonna let the Central division play. Might mean that Manitoba follows, and Savoie may get some more WHL games.

Wright on the other hand might lose an entire season of development. Completely unprecedented for a prospect this level.

I'd probably say right now I'd go:

Wright
Lambert
-
Savoie

But Savoie could close the gap.

If the 2021-2022 OHL season looks like a bust too you think Wright might head over to Europe like Matthews in his draft year. Just for the lulz head to Finland and sign with JYP

They might know eachother, they both played at the U17 last year

 

[Morgs]

So I updated production on my big board (not gonna do underlying stats until the end of the season so I don't have to do it more than once). Instead of posting the whole big board and overwhelming people into not reading it, I'm gonna post some things I find interesting:

Forwards with 10 or more NHLe this season (21):

Player	D-Age	Height	Weight	Position	League	Team	GP	G	P	PPG	NHLe 20-21
Eklund, William	18.9	5'10"	172	C/W	SHL	Djurgårdens	26	7	15	0.58	23.13
Johnson, Kent	18.9	6'1"	170	C	NCAA	Michigan	16	6	18	1.13	21.31
Pastujov, Sasha	18.2	6'0"	181	W	USHL	USDP	4	6	8	2.00	19.35
Coronato, Matthew	18.8	5'10"	181	W	USHL	Chicago	22	18	41	1.86	18.03
Beniers, Matthew	18.9	6'0"	175	C	NCAA	Michigan	14	4	13	0.93	17.59
Huckins, Cole	18.4	6'4"	192	C	QMJHL	Acadie-Bathurst	15	7	19	1.27	16.51
Bourgault, Xavier	19.0	5'11"	166	C	QMJHL	Shawinigan	12	10	15	1.25	16.30
Robidas, Justin	18.5	5'7"	172	C	QMJHL	Val-d'Or	17	8	20	1.18	15.34
Nadeau, Olivier	18.7	6'2"	205	W	QMJHL	Shawinigan	12	3	14	1.17	15.21
Martino, Ayrton	19.0	5'10"	170	W	USHL	Omaha	7	3	11	1.57	15.21
Roy, Joshua	18.1	6'1"	192	C	QMJHL	Sherbrooke	15	9	17	1.13	14.78
Boucher, Tyler	18.7	6'1"	201	W	USHL	USDP	2	2	3	1.50	14.51
L'Heureux, Zachary	18.4	5'11"	196	W	QMJHL	Halifax	12	7	13	1.08	14.12
Samoskevich, Matthew	18.8	5'9"	172	W	USHL	Chicago	16	6	21	1.31	12.70
Helenius, Samuel	18.8	6'6"	183	C	Liiga	JYP	23	5	9	0.39	11.62
Sillinger, Cole	18.3	6'0"	187	C	USHL	Sioux Falls	5	4	6	1.20	11.61
Orr, Robert	18.1	5'11"	176	C	QMJHL	Halifax	15	6	13	0.87	11.30
Petrov, Matvei	18.5	6'1"	163	W	MHL	MHK Krylia	41	17	32	0.78	10.88
Poltapov, Prokhor	18.6	5'10"	161	W	MHL	Krasnaya	48	20	37	0.77	10.75
Olausson, Oskar	18.9	6'2"	181	W	SHL	HV71	16	3	4	0.25	10.02

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Defense with 5 or more NHLe this season (11):

Player	D-Age	Height	Weight	Position	League	Team	GP	G	P	PPG	NHLe 20-21
Hughes, Luke	18.0	6'2"	160	LHD	USHL	USDP	7	4	11	1.57	15.21
Ceulemans, Corson	18.4	6'2"	188	RHD	AJHL	Brooks	2	2	5	2.50	14.76
Power, Owen	18.8	6'5"	210	LHD	NCAA	Michigan	16	2	12	0.75	14.21
Chayka, Daniil	18.9	6'2"	173	LHD	KHL	CSKA	9	1	2	0.22	11.43
Whynot, Cameron	18.4	6'2"	182	LHD	QMJHL	Halifax	13	1	7	0.54	7.02
Hreschuk, Aidan	18.6	5'11"	170	LHD	USHL	USDP	7	1	5	0.71	6.91
Behrens, Sean	18.5	5'9"	174	LHD	USHL	USDP	6	0	4	0.67	6.45
Kostenko, Dmitri	19.0	6'0"	168	RHD	VHL	Lada	35	1	9	0.26	5.67
Plandowski, Oscar	18.3	6'0"	190	RHD	QMJHL	Charlottetown	14	1	6	0.43	5.59
Nause, Evan	18.7	6'2"	185	LHD	QMJHL	Quebec	10	2	4	0.40	5.22
Lambos, Carson	18.7	6'1"	197	LHD	U20 Sarja	JYP	13	2	11	0.85	5.07

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Top-10 most improved seasons:

Player	D-Age	Height	Weight	Position	League	Team	GP	G	P	PPG	NHLe 20-21	NHLe 19-20	NHLe -Diff
Eklund, William	18.9	5'10"	172	C/W	SHL	Djurgårdens	26	7	15	0.58	23.13	8.19	14.94
Hughes, Luke	18.0	6'2"	160	LHD	USHL	USDP	7	4	11	1.57	15.21	4.49	10.71
Pastujov, Sasha	18.2	6'0"	181	W	USHL	USDP	4	6	8	2.00	19.35	8.68	10.68
Boucher, Tyler	18.7	6'1"	201	W	USHL	USDP	2	2	3	1.50	14.51	4.43	10.08
Ceulemans, Corson	18.4	6'2"	188	RHD	AJHL	Brooks	2	2	5	2.50	14.76	4.70	10.06
Nadeau, Olivier	18.7	6'2"	205	W	QMJHL	Shawinigan	12	3	14	1.17	15.21	5.17	10.04
Coronato, Matthew	18.8	5'10"	181	W	USHL	Chicago	22	18	41	1.86	18.03	8.60	9.43
Helenius, Samuel	18.8	6'6"	183	C	Liiga	JYP	23	5	9	0.39	11.62	2.82	8.80
Huckins, Cole	18.4	6'4"	192	C	QMJHL	Acadie-Bathurst	15	7	19	1.27	16.51	7.74	8.77
Johnson, Kent	18.9	6'1"	170	C	NCAA	Michigan	16	6	18	1.13	21.31	12.58	8.73

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Top-10 production regressions (not including guys who haven't played):

Player	D-Age	Height	Weight	Position	League	Team	GP	G	P	PPG	NHLe 20-21	NHLe 19-20	NHLe -Diff
Stringer, Zack	18.4	6'1"	165	W	AJHL	Drayton Valley	4	0	1	0.25	1.48	9.41	-7.93
Belliveau, Isaac	18.8	6'0"	172	LHD	QMJHL	Gatineau	18	1	5	0.28	3.62	11.15	-7.52
Roulette, Conner	18.4	5'11"	175	W	MJHL	Selkirk	3	1	2	0.67	2.79	9.59	-6.81
Guenther, Dylan	18.4	6'2"	171	W	AJHL	Sherwood Park	4	3	5	1.25	7.38	13.51	-6.13
Clarke, Brandt	18.6	6'1"	181	RHD	Slovakia	HC Nove Zamky	10	1	2	0.20	3.41	8.47	-5.06
Stillman, Chase	18.5	5'11"	170	W	Denmark U20	Esbjerg	8	9	16	2.00	2.62	7.45	-4.83
Knies, Matthew	18.9	6'2"	205	C	USHL	Tri-City	15	2	8	0.53	5.16	9.90	-4.74
Kostenko, Dmitri	19.0	6'0"	168	RHD	VHL	Lada	35	1	9	0.26	5.67	10.33	-4.65
Othmann, Brennan	18.7	5'11"	166	W	Swiss D1	EHC Olten	20	7	15	0.75	3.08	7.63	-4.55
O'Brien, Jack	18.4	6'0"	155	C	USHL	Lincoln	3	0	1	0.33	3.23	7.25	-4.02

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I've found this is a lot of OHL/WHL guys who are playing in [significantly] weaker leagues except Clarke so I wouldn't take much from this except for Belliveau disappointing so hard (plus Guenther's & Stillman's production is awesome).

Potential First Round Picks that haven't played a game:
F - Chaz Lucius
F - Mason MacTavish
F - Logan Stankoven
F - Francesco Pinelli
F - Ryder Korczak

There are a ton of guys that are playing little minutes in pro leagues (Edvinsson, Rosen, Olsson, etc) and their production shows. I'm interested to dig deeper into their numbers as the season goes on.