The Never Too Early 2021 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[SeaOfBlue]

Helenius is interesting prospect.
He really is big guy ( 6'6 ) like his father Sami who played in NHL late 90's and early 2000's.

When player is 6'6 skating and physicality are needed improvements.
Samuel is a bit like his father he plays physical game and he gives heavy and clean hits when needed.

In JYP's SM liiga team this season Helenius has been more 3rd / 4th line player
and that's probably his role in U20 WJC's as well if he makes Finland's team.

I can see Helenius going somewhere in mid 2nd round but if he plays well in U20 WJC's
and has good post season 2020-2021 in JYP then rising somewhere late 1st round / early 2nd round is possible.

It was surprise to me at none of all SM liiga teams didn't sign Salminen after season 2019-2020.
His path to Jokerit's men's team is basically closed because Jokerit plays in KHL.

Salminen should get men's games under his belt because he's done with U20 SM sarja.
I don't know exactly what plans jokerit have made for Salminen
but they should assign him to Kiekko-Vantaa ( Jokerit's mestis affiliate team ) and let him play there.

Also i'm surprised of that Salminen went undrafted in 2020 CHL import draft.
But i can understand it if Salminen himself has declined to play in CHL due to Covid-19 pandemic.

Tuomaala got drafted by Sudbury Wolves in 2020 CHL import draft.
But there isn't any info is he reporting to Sudbury at all.

I think one reason for that why Tuomaala hasn't decided yet
will he go to Sudbury is that covid-19 situation.

And being honest i don't judge him because of that
it's understandable everyone wants to stay near their original home right now.

I know that maple-leafs haven't drafted Finns in 1st round since Tuukka Rask.
So i don't expect that one of Salminen, Helenius or Tuomaala will be maple-leaf.
But hey speculation is fun and that's why it's great to think where all draft eligible players will end up.

PS
If U18 WJC's in USA will be played next year
Salminen and Tuomaala will be TOP6 players for Finland
and if they play well then they can have good rise in the rankings.

But Covid-19 can still screw-up a lot of things
so lets hope IIHF won't cancel U18 WJC's because that would be
huge shame to all 2003 born players.

One more thing
I know this is early to ask but what do you like about Brad Lambert ?
He's 2022 draft eligible and he's Shane Wirght's biggest challenger in 1st overall.
so who's you number 1 2022 prospect Wright or Lambert
mine is Lambert.

What is always so weird to me RE: Helenius is that everyone has him so low. Earlier mocks had him available with our 4th round pick, but it seems like some people are starting to warm up to him a little bit now that he has shown he can do well in the Liiga.

His skating must have been a large problem.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

What is always so weird to me RE: Helenius is that everyone has him so low. Earlier mocks had him available with our 4th round pick, but it seems like some people are starting to warm up to him a little bit now that he has shown he can do well in the Liiga.

His skating must have been a large problem.

What i've read first scouting reports of Samuel Helenius
he isn't super-explosive skater but he's good straight skater.

Skating is one skill which can be coached so skating itself shouldn't be huge issue of Helenius.
He clearly isn't first 6'6 tall dude who has had skating worries at some point in his short career.

Even Sasha Barkov has taken a lot skating coaching last years and now he's very good skater.
It's a fact all draft prospects aren't elite skaters immediately like Miro Heiskanen was.

I get that some scouts can question Helenius's skating ability
but Helenius can prove scouts being wrong.

Keep in mind that Helenius is only 18 yrs old so there is a lot of time to improve skating etc skills.
and i'm sure of that when Helenius gets 2 to 4 yrs good SM liiga / AHL / NHL coaching
he'll be good player at some point.

No-one isn't probably expecting that Helenius will be TOP9 player in NHL.
But his bread and butter in NHL can be good bottom 6 player
who can create some offense and score about 30+ points per season and kill penalties
and of course share hard and heavy hits and play physical game.

Every NHL team needs players who can shutdown opposite teams top lines and scorers.
Guys who are 4th line players in NHL not show often in score sheet
but still those players are very valuable especially in playoffs when only goal is to win stanley cup.

There will be NHL teams who are looking Helenius type players in the draft night.
And that team who gets Helenius might be very happy of their pick at some point in the future.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What i've read first scouting reports of Samuel Helenius
he isn't super-explosive skater but he's good straight skater.

Skating is one skill which can be coached so skating itself shouldn't be huge issue of Helenius.
He clearly isn't first 6'6 tall dude who has had skating worries at some point in his short career.

Even Sasha Barkov has taken a lot skating coaching last years and now he's very good skater.
It's a fact all draft prospects aren't elite skaters immediately like Miro Heiskanen was.

I get that some scouts can question Helenius's skating ability
but Helenius can prove scouts being wrong.

Keep in mind that Helenius is only 18 yrs old so there is a lot of time to improve skating etc skills.
and i'm sure of that when Helenius gets 2 to 4 yrs good SM liiga / AHL / NHL coaching
he'll be good player at some point.

No-one isn't probably expecting that Helenius will be TOP9 player in NHL.
But his bread and butter in NHL can be good bottom 6 player
who can create some offense and score about 30+ points per season and kill penalties
and of course share hard and heavy hits and play physical game.

Every NHL team needs players who can shutdown opposite teams top lines and scorers.
Guys who are 4th line players in NHL not show often in score sheet
but still those players are very valuable especially in playoffs when only goal is to win stanley cup.

There will be NHL teams who are looking Helenius type players in the draft night.
And that team who gets Helenius might be very happy of their pick at some point in the future.

I don't think the question is if he gets drafted, but rather where. If he tops out as a bottom 6 guy, he is definitely not a 1st rounder. If he can be a high end bottom 6er, he may be a guy who is taken in the 2nd round, but unlikely by the Leafs. The Leafs would probably only consider him in the 4th round at that point. He has been ranked that low, and may fall, but some team will likely fall in love with his size and take him relatively high.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

I don't think the question is if he gets drafted, but rather where. If he tops out as a bottom 6 guy, he is definitely not a 1st rounder. If he can be a high end bottom 6er, he may be a guy who is taken in the 2nd round, but unlikely by the Leafs. The Leafs would probably only consider him in the 4th round at that point. He has been ranked that low, and may fall, but some team will likely fall in love with his size and take him relatively high.

It's absolutely really difficult to know how that 2021 draft will go.
This freaking covid-19 pandemic has screwed up so many things which are affecting 2021 NHL draft.

Yes Helenius type players will draw interest but time will tell where Helenius goes in the draft night.
Of course every NHL team wants to get good value of their draft pick that's not changed.

Even i'll keep Helenius eye on in U20 WJC's because i'm not watched so much of JYP's SM liiga games.
And of course i hope that Helenius plays well in U20 WJC's
and he does his part to help Finland win U20 WJC's.

 

[Morgs]

I don't think the question is if he gets drafted, but rather where. If he tops out as a bottom 6 guy, he is definitely not a 1st rounder. If he can be a high end bottom 6er, he may be a guy who is taken in the 2nd round, but unlikely by the Leafs. The Leafs would probably only consider him in the 4th round at that point. He has been ranked that low, and may fall, but some team will likely fall in love with his size and take him relatively high.

His production this season is definitely something I'm sure the Leafs would be interested in. His rel stats are atrocious, but if scouting reports are true (that he's a fine skater) I don't see why the Leafs wouldn't take him before the 4th round.

I have a feeling he's gonna be like Brandon Coe if he keeps it up. Production is more than good enough for the 2nd round, late birthday, gigantic forward, but teams in the past few years have moved away from giant forwards when they're not first round picks and he might be seen as a "steal" outside the top-62.

 

[Brock]

Thought that I would post this here for you guys as you seem to enjoy reading my pieces.

Catching up with OHL 2021 NHL Draft prospects transplanted around the world - Video Review

An in-depth look (with tons of video) at 10 how Ontario (or former Ontario) based players have started their draft seasons. Includes the likes of Owen Power, Roman Schmidt, Brennan Othmann, and Chase Stillman.

 

[Morgs]

So it's insanely early for me to make a list, but I'd like to see some more talk on this draft because despite the fact it doesn't have a clear cut #1 OA pick. Here is my current pre-WJC list:

Rank	Player Name	D-Age	Height	Weight	Position	League	Team	NHLe
1	Eklund, William	18.9	5'10"	172	C/W	SHL	Djurgårdens	29.55
2	Johnson, Kent	18.9	6'1"	170	C/W	NCAA	Michigan	18.94
3	Hughes, Luke	18.0	6'2"	160	LHD	USHL	USDP	11.61
4	Power, Owen	18.8	6'5"	210	LHD	NCAA	Michigan	7.58
5	Beniers, Matthew	18.9	6'0"	175	C	NCAA	Michigan	14.21
6	Wallstedt, Jesper	18.8	6'3"	212	G	SHL	Luleå	0.920%
7	Clarke, Brandt	18.6	6'1"	181	RHD	OHL	Barrie	0.00
8	Lambos, Carson	18.7	6'1"	197	LHD	U20 Sarja	JYP	4.28
9	Pastujov, Sasha	18.2	6'0"	181	W	USHL	USDP	22.58
10	Edvinsson, Simon	18.6	6'4"	187	LHD	J20 Nationell	Frolunda	3.02
11	Guenther, Dylan	18.4	6'2"	171	W	AJHL	Sherwood Park	7.38
12	Bourgault, Xavier	19.0	5'11"	166	C	QMJHL	Shawinigan	15.65
13	Sillinger, Cole	18.3	6'0"	187	C	WHL	Medicine Hat	0.00
14	Lysell, Fabian	18.7	5'10"	176	W	J20 Nationell	Frolunda	8.33
15	L'Heureux, Zachary	18.4	5'11"	196	W	QMJHL	Halifax	14.12
16	Roy, Joshua	18.1	6'1"	192	C	QMJHL	Saint John	14.78
17	Lucius, Chaz	18.4	6'1"	180	C	USHL	USDP	0.00
18	Coronato, Matthew	18.8	5'10"	181	W	USHL	Chicago	21.58
19	McTavish, Mason	18.6	6'1"	196	C	OHL	Peterborough	0.00
20	Olausson, Oskar	18.9	6'2"	181	W	SHL	HV71	14.58
21	Räty, Aatu	18.8	6'1"	171	C/W	Liiga	Karpat	9.89
22	Samoskevich, Matthew	18.8	5'9"	172	W	USHL	Chicago	13.40
23	Ceulemans, Corson	18.4	6'2"	188	RHD	AJHL	Brooks	14.76
24	Bolduc, Zachary	18.6	6'1"	175	C	QMJHL	Rimouski	7.45
25	Robidas, Justin	18.5	5'7"	172	C	QMJHL	Val-d'Or	17.38
26	Huckins, Cole	18.4	6'4"	192	C	QMJHL	Acadie-Bathurst	16.51
27	Stankoven, Logan	18.6	5'8"	170	W	WHL	Kamloops	0.00
28	Simon Robertsson	18.6	6'0"	181	W	J20 Nationell	Skelleftea	9.40
29	Rosen, Isak	18.5	5'10"	155	W	J20 Nationell	Leksands	7.05
30	Strömgren, William	18.3	6'2"	161	W	J20 Nationell	MODO	9.07
31	Poltapov, Prokhor	18.6	5'10"	161	W	MHL	Krasnaya	10.56
32	Chayka, Daniil	18.9	6'2"	173	LHD	MHL	Krasnaya	4.65

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1) There's definitely no consensus 1st OA pick, but I do think it will end up being Power. He's [really] big, skates well, and the offensive upside is legit. Of the 40 defenseman I'm tracking, he ranks 3rd (behind Ceulemans/Hughes) this season, and 3rd (Beliveau/Kostenko) last season in NHLe. Even if people question the defensive upside, I think as a whole he's either the best or second best defenseman in the draft.

2) Eklund I cannot understand how he isn't getting more love. He's 10 months younger than Holtz, and 8 months younger than Raymond and is outproducing both of them with a positive rel.CF% on a playoff team. Without a doubt he's a much better prospect than Holtz was for me last year. I've watched a few of his games, and I can't say enough good things about him. Unless his production falls off a cliff or someone really takes over I think he's gonna be my #1 guy down the stretch.

3) Kent Johnson will produce. The guy may end up as an empty calorie scorer at the NHL-level, but there's no-one in the draft I'm more sure will end up as a top-6 scorer. His floor/ceiling to me outweighs Power/Hughes currently, especially with the fact I believe F > D as a whole. Think Mittelstadt, if he didn't suck at hockey.

4) The only downside of Luke Hughes for me is his comp. I hate that he's playing USDP in his draft year, but the guy might be the best skater in the draft, his offense/puck skills remind me of Quinn, but unlike Quinn who was almost 19 on draft day, Luke will have just turned 18..... seven days before.

5) I honestly think Wallstedt could be ranked higher. Yes, he's a better prospect than Askarov imo.

6) I think after #23 the draft is wide open.

 

[LeafChief]

So it's insanely early for me to make a list, but I'd like to see some more talk on this draft because despite the fact it doesn't have a clear cut #1 OA pick. Here is my current pre-WJC list:

Rank	Player Name	D-Age	Height	Weight	Position	League	Team	NHLe
1	Eklund, William	18.9	5'10"	172	C/W	SHL	Djurgårdens	29.55
2	Johnson, Kent	18.9	6'1"	170	C/W	NCAA	Michigan	18.94
3	Hughes, Luke	18.0	6'2"	160	LHD	USHL	USDP	11.61
4	Power, Owen	18.8	6'5"	210	LHD	NCAA	Michigan	7.58
5	Beniers, Matthew	18.9	6'0"	175	C	NCAA	Michigan	14.21
6	Wallstedt, Jesper	18.8	6'3"	212	G	SHL	Luleå	0.920%
7	Clarke, Brandt	18.6	6'1"	181	RHD	OHL	Barrie	0.00
8	Lambos, Carson	18.7	6'1"	197	LHD	U20 Sarja	JYP	4.28
9	Pastujov, Sasha	18.2	6'0"	181	W	USHL	USDP	22.58
10	Edvinsson, Simon	18.6	6'4"	187	LHD	J20 Nationell	Frolunda	3.02
11	Guenther, Dylan	18.4	6'2"	171	W	AJHL	Sherwood Park	7.38
12	Bourgault, Xavier	19.0	5'11"	166	C	QMJHL	Shawinigan	15.65
13	Sillinger, Cole	18.3	6'0"	187	C	WHL	Medicine Hat	0.00
14	Lysell, Fabian	18.7	5'10"	176	W	J20 Nationell	Frolunda	8.33
15	L'Heureux, Zachary	18.4	5'11"	196	W	QMJHL	Halifax	14.12
16	Roy, Joshua	18.1	6'1"	192	C	QMJHL	Saint John	14.78
17	Lucius, Chaz	18.4	6'1"	180	C	USHL	USDP	0.00
18	Coronato, Matthew	18.8	5'10"	181	W	USHL	Chicago	21.58
19	McTavish, Mason	18.6	6'1"	196	C	OHL	Peterborough	0.00
20	Olausson, Oskar	18.9	6'2"	181	W	SHL	HV71	14.58
21	Räty, Aatu	18.8	6'1"	171	C/W	Liiga	Karpat	9.89
22	Samoskevich, Matthew	18.8	5'9"	172	W	USHL	Chicago	13.40
23	Ceulemans, Corson	18.4	6'2"	188	RHD	AJHL	Brooks	14.76
24	Bolduc, Zachary	18.6	6'1"	175	C	QMJHL	Rimouski	7.45
25	Robidas, Justin	18.5	5'7"	172	C	QMJHL	Val-d'Or	17.38
26	Huckins, Cole	18.4	6'4"	192	C	QMJHL	Acadie-Bathurst	16.51
27	Stankoven, Logan	18.6	5'8"	170	W	WHL	Kamloops	0.00
28	Simon Robertsson	18.6	6'0"	181	W	J20 Nationell	Skelleftea	9.40
29	Rosen, Isak	18.5	5'10"	155	W	J20 Nationell	Leksands	7.05
30	Strömgren, William	18.3	6'2"	161	W	J20 Nationell	MODO	9.07
31	Poltapov, Prokhor	18.6	5'10"	161	W	MHL	Krasnaya	10.56
32	Chayka, Daniil	18.9	6'2"	173	LHD	MHL	Krasnaya	4.65

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1) There's definitely no consensus 1st OA pick, but I do think it will end up being Power. He's [really] big, skates well, and the offensive upside is legit. Of the 40 defenseman I'm tracking, he ranks 3rd (behind Ceulemans/Hughes) this season, and 3rd (Beliveau/Kostenko) last season in NHLe. Even if people question the defensive upside, I think as a whole he's either the best or second best defenseman in the draft.

2) Eklund I cannot understand how he isn't getting more love. He's 10 months younger than Holtz, and 8 months younger than Raymond and is outproducing both of them with a positive rel.CF% on a playoff team. Without a doubt he's a much better prospect than Holtz was for me last year. I've watched a few of his games, and I can't say enough good things about him. Unless his production falls off a cliff or someone really takes over I think he's gonna be my #1 guy down the stretch.

3) Kent Johnson will produce. The guy may end up as an empty calorie scorer at the NHL-level, but there's no-one in the draft I'm more sure will end up as a top-6 scorer. His floor/ceiling to me outweighs Power/Hughes currently, especially with the fact I believe F > D as a whole. Think Mittelstadt, if he didn't suck at hockey.

4) The only downside of Luke Hughes for me is his comp. I hate that he's playing USDP in his draft year, but the guy might be the best skater in the draft, his offense/puck skills remind me of Quinn, but unlike Quinn who was almost 19 on draft day, Luke will have just turned 18..... seven days before.

5) I honestly think Wallstedt could be ranked higher. Yes, he's a better prospect than Askarov imo.

6) I think after #23 the draft is wide open.

Where do you rank Othmann?

 

[Morgs]

Where do you rank Othmann?

I don't have anyone ranked outside the first round so far. I'd say he'd be juuuuust outside my HM's right now, so ~40th?

Good/great D-1 season last year, but him not producing more in a meh league is not good for his stock. Granted nobody takes the path he does so we have no idea how he's developing.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I don't have anyone ranked outside the first round so far. I'd say he'd be juuuuust outside my HM's right now, so ~40th?

Good/great D-1 season last year, but him not producing more in a meh league is not good for his stock. Granted nobody takes the path he does so we have no idea how he's developing.

I think there is too much depth in this draft for a guy like him to go top 50, but that is simply based on current rankings. He could have gone top 50 in a draft like 2020 assuming he had a good 2020-2021 season.

 

[Morgs]

I think there is too much depth in this draft for a guy like him to go top 50, but that is simply based on current rankings. He could have gone top 50 in a draft like 2020 assuming he had a good 2020-2021 season.

I'm of the complete opposite opinion, I think theres too little depth in this draft.

He's a guy I could see going 1st round because after my top-23 i dont really see any standouts/guys I feel have/should go in the first. I just have guys I like there.

Last draft I had like 45-50 guys I believe could/would/should have been 1st round picks overall. This draft (obviously covid is a problem) is looking like you'll get steals everywhere, but theres so much risk outside of the guys that seem to be sure bets.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'm of the complete opposite opinion, I think theres too little depth in this draft.

He's a guy I could see going 1st round because after my top-23 i dont really see any standouts/guys I feel have/should go in the first. I just have guys I like there.

Last draft I had like 45-50 guys I believe could/would/should have been 1st round picks overall. This draft (obviously covid is a problem) is looking like you'll get steals everywhere, but theres so much risk outside of the guys that seem to be sure bets.

I don't think there was anything close to 45-50 guys who could go 1st round, at least not in a normal draft.

This draft, I think you can find 40 guys in 2021 who could have been serious candidates to be 1st round picks in 2020, had they been playing in their respective leagues this year. I don't see guys like Anton Olsson on your list, and Chayka at 32 says quite a bit too, considering last year he could have been almost as high as Schneider and Guhle despite being a year younger.

 

[Morgs]

I don't think there was anything close to 45-50 guys who could go 1st round, at least not in a normal draft.

This draft, I think you can find 40 guys in 2021 who could have been serious candidates to be 1st round picks in 2020, had they been playing in their respective leagues this year. I don't see guys like Anton Olsson on your list, and Chayka at 32 says quite a bit too, considering last year he could have been almost as high as Schneider and Guhle despite being a year younger.

I remember you saying you didnt really like that draft, but I feel the complete opposite. I think that draft is gonna go down as fantastic.

To be fair I like Chayka, but he's taken a big step down this year production-wise. Olsson needs to show a bunch more for me to even think he's a legit 2nd round pick.... but again I'd have him in the 2nd because of the lack of depth. Idk I just dont see it with this draft.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I remember you saying you didnt really like that draft, but I feel the complete opposite. I think that draft is gonna go down as fantastic.

To be fair I like Chayka, but he's taken a big step down this year production-wise. Olsson needs to show a bunch more for me to even think he's a legit 2nd round pick.... but again I'd have him in the 2nd because of the lack of depth. Idk I just dont see it with this draft.

The fact that he is playing in the KHL at all, never mind on defense for CSKA, is pretty impressive. Same with Olsson playing in the SHL. I would have Olsson quite a bit above Grans, and Grans went 35th overall last year. Even if you take production into account, Olsson is not doing much worse and he is far more of a two-way defender than the more offensive-minded Grans.

2020 is just overrated based on the high end and the amount of flashy, skilled boom-bust wingers that occupied the draft. I guess if everything goes right, then it is a great draft, but the chances of that happening are extremely low and if many of them don't turn out, there is very little substance coming out of that draft. 2021 does not have as much of that flash, but it has a lot more guys who will be solid, productive, all-around NHLers in more important positions (2020 was heavy on the wing, and a lot of the guys projected as centers are almost certainly going to have to shift to wing in the pros), but still having a lot of the skill required to be good top 6/4 players. Pretty much, it has a lot more guys the Leafs need right now and in the system in general.

 

[Morgs]

The fact that he is playing in the KHL at all, never mind on defense for CSKA, is pretty impressive. Same with Olsson playing in the SHL. I would have Olsson quite a bit above Grans, and Grans went 35th overall last year. Even if you take production into account, Olsson is not doing much worse and he is far more of a two-way defender than the more offensive-minded Grans.

2020 is just overrated based on the high end and the amount of flashy, skilled boom-bust wingers that occupied the draft. I guess if everything goes right, then it is a great draft, but the chances of that happening are extremely low and if many of them don't turn out, there is very little substance coming out of that draft. 2021 does not have as much of that flash, but it has a lot more guys who will be solid, productive, all-around NHLers in more important positions (2020 was heavy on the wing, and a lot of the guys projected as centers are almost certainly going to have to shift to wing in the pros), but still having a lot of the skill required to be good top 6/4 players. Pretty much, it has a lot more guys the Leafs need right now and in the system in general.

See, I don't think a draft needs to have premium positions to be a good draft. I think a draft needs to have plenty of stars and future NHL players. That's what the 2020 draft will end up going down as. Sure it's not going to produce as many stars, centers, or even defenseman as the 2015 draft, but I wouldn't be surprised if it got close to the numbers of 100GP players produced. I especially wouldn't be surprised if it beat virtually every year outside of 2015 in everything except for stars produced. You call the wingers boom-bust last season but I never saw it like that, I saw plenty of upside from these guys, but I also saw 100GP floors on so many different players.

I mean sure you can compare the difference between Grans and Olsson if you want. I wasn't thrilled with Grans, but I think Grans was a much better prospect at this point. I like Chayka quite a bit, but it's almost exclusively because of his D-1 and the fact he's getting minutes on a great team in the KHL. I don't know if I'm 1st round pick in love with him, but I felt like I had to put him there because nobody else really seems to be fighting for that spot.

I think you're way more likely to get a premium position prospect in this draft as there are 5 defenseman I feel like are Drysdale-level (or better), Walstedt, and a bunch more C at the top of the draft, but after you get past the fact there are those defenseman.... the rest of the draft is pretty meh.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I don't want to see the 1st used in July I want to see it used in April, the Leafs don't need to draft with every 1st round pick it's OK to use one to pick up a piece for the roster, especially when you already have a good prospect pool

 

[Kiwi]

I don't want to see the 1st used in July I want to see it used in April, the Leafs don't need to draft with every 1st round pick it's OK to use one to pick up a piece for the roster, especially when you already have a good prospect pool

That's something you worry about around the TDL, not now

I'm happy buying but if your trading 1st rounders you want to be getting something good for them

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

That's something you worry about around the TDL, not now

I'm happy buying but if your trading 1st rounders you want to be getting something good for them

I agree my point is when you have Robertson Amirov, Sandin Lilly and Halliner, I think there is enough in the cupboards that trading a 1st rounder is something you can afford to do.

 

[Morgs]

I don't want to see the 1st used in July I want to see it used in April, the Leafs don't need to draft with every 1st round pick it's OK to use one to pick up a piece for the roster, especially when you already have a good prospect pool

It's the draft thread, not the "we should trade our pick" thread.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

See, I don't think a draft needs to have premium positions to be a good draft. I think a draft needs to have plenty of stars and future NHL players. That's what the 2020 draft will end up going down as. Sure it's not going to produce as many stars, centers, or even defenseman as the 2015 draft, but I wouldn't be surprised if it got close to the numbers of 100GP players produced. I especially wouldn't be surprised if it beat virtually every year outside of 2015 in everything except for stars produced. You call the wingers boom-bust last season but I never saw it like that, I saw plenty of upside from these guys, but I also saw 100GP floors on so many different players.

I mean sure you can compare the difference between Grans and Olsson if you want. I wasn't thrilled with Grans, but I think Grans was a much better prospect at this point. I like Chayka quite a bit, but it's almost exclusively because of his D-1 and the fact he's getting minutes on a great team in the KHL. I don't know if I'm 1st round pick in love with him, but I felt like I had to put him there because nobody else really seems to be fighting for that spot.

I think you're way more likely to get a premium position prospect in this draft as there are 5 defenseman I feel like are Drysdale-level (or better), Walstedt, and a bunch more C at the top of the draft, but after you get past the fact there are those defenseman.... the rest of the draft is pretty meh.

I agree, but it does come down to effectively an "expected value" formula for me, and position does play a part in that. What is the upside, how likely are they able to reach that upside, and also what do they look like if they don't hit their upside? 2020 was a draft which had a fair bit of upside. I don't think after the top 15 is was super spectacular on the whole, but on the wings it was better than average. What brings it down for me is that I think there are a lot of guys there who are going to need to adapt their games to make the NHL, or translate pretty much all of their offensive potential, to be able to last and be productive in the NHL. I believe some of them will, but not enough to make it as nearly as hyped as a lot of people are making it out to be. Effectively, I am not liking what I see if they don't hit their upside (or don't adapt) and I am not liking their chances of hitting their upside.

When I look at 2021, I think you still have a fair number of the guys that hyped up 2020, but also have the depth in other areas which make it a more superior draft. I don't think 2021 is a spectacular draft either, but I do think it is a far deeper and more solid draft... And it would likely look even better if they actually had a chance to play. Right now you are basing it mostly off of guys who had a good D-1 year, and most guys who have a good D-1 year typically have an even better DY, but there are also a lot of guys who do not have that chance to show off in their D-1 year. Imagine those high end London Knights prospects if they did not have a chance to show themselves in their DY. Evangelista had 2 points in 27 games in his D-1 year (Rolofs had 3 points in 31 games in his) whereas McMichael, Thomas, Foudy, etc. were hardly better enough to stand out as much as they did in their draft years.

 

[Morgs]

I agree, but it does come down to effectively an "expected value" formula for me, and position does play a part in that. What is the upside, how likely are they able to reach that upside, and also what do they look like if they don't hit their upside? 2020 was a draft which had a fair bit of upside. I don't think after the top 15 is was super spectacular on the whole, but on the wings it was better than average. What brings it down for me is that I think there are a lot of guys there who are going to need to adapt their games to make the NHL, or translate pretty much all of their offensive potential, to be able to last and be productive in the NHL. I believe some of them will, but not enough to make it as nearly as hyped as a lot of people are making it out to be. Effectively, I am not liking what I see if they don't hit their upside (or don't adapt) and I am not liking their chances of hitting their upside.

When I look at 2021, I think you still have a fair number of the guys that hyped up 2020, but also have the depth in other areas which make it a more superior draft. I don't think 2021 is a spectacular draft either, but I do think it is a far deeper and more solid draft... And it would likely look even better if they actually had a chance to play.

We just value different things so I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one, and that's ok; I always respect your opinion.

I'd be interested to learn your formula for expected value. I've actually been tinkering with one, but it needs quite a bit of work.

 

[Fogelhund]

Roman Schmidt is a guy I'd look at in the second round... he might be out of reach, if we are drafting in the later part of the round. 6'5" RHD... He is very good skater, his parents were competitive figure skaters, and he did figure skating, before hockey. I don't think that the offensive side is there, but the defensive side will be.

I like the idea of Helenius too, the 6'6" C, that will be playing for Finland in the WJC.

I'm looking at this, from the perspective of diversifying the prospect pool, and adding some size. Dubas and co. seem to have done a great job with the skill guys that they've drafted, so some diversification in the pool wouldn't hurt. I'm not saying that these guys don't have skill, just they have other things to bring too.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

We just value different things so I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this one, and that's ok; I always respect your opinion.

I'd be interested to learn your formula for expected value. I've actually been tinkering with one, but it needs quite a bit of work.

I don't really have a formal formula, because it weighs intangible things like IQ and character in there as well, so right now I am working on something that makes non-statistical factors (like IQ and character) quantifiable. That way I don't need to just follow trends and have to figure it out manually. There will still be subjectivity and bias (because there are no objective ways to evaluate IQ and character at this point), but it should be handled a lot better than in the past at least.

 

[Morgs]

Roman Schmidt is a guy I'd look at in the second round... he might be out of reach, if we are drafting in the later part of the round. 6'5" RHD... He is very good skater, his parents were competitive figure skaters, and he did figure skating, before hockey. I don't think that the offensive side is there, but the defensive side will be.

I like the idea of Helenius too, the 6'6" C, that will be playing for Finland in the WJC.

I'm looking at this, from the perspective of diversifying the prospect pool, and adding some size. Dubas and co. seem to have done a great job with the skill guys that they've drafted, so some diversification in the pool wouldn't hurt. I'm not saying that these guys don't have skill, just they have other things to bring too.

I really like Helenius, I have him ranked in the early 2nd round. By scouting reports skating isn't an issue, neither is the brain. His production this year has skyrocketed on an awful team, but his play driving/defense analytics are uuuuuuuuuuuuugly. Definitely a guy I'd look at in the second round.

Schmidt is interesting too. Like you said the offensive upside probably isn't there which makes him risky as pure defensive defenseman hardly ever make it, but it's not like he doesn't know which end of the stick to use like Kleven. His profile reminds me a bit of Guhle (probably an even better skater), who would have been much better pick in the mid/late second round.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Roman Schmidt is a guy I'd look at in the second round... he might be out of reach, if we are drafting in the later part of the round. 6'5" RHD... He is very good skater, his parents were competitive figure skaters, and he did figure skating, before hockey. I don't think that the offensive side is there, but the defensive side will be.

I like the idea of Helenius too, the 6'6" C, that will be playing for Finland in the WJC.

I'm looking at this, from the perspective of diversifying the prospect pool, and adding some size. Dubas and co. seem to have done a great job with the skill guys that they've drafted, so some diversification in the pool wouldn't hurt. I'm not saying that these guys don't have skill, just they have other things to bring too.

It would be nice to see how Logan Mailloux's skating has improved since he was in junior. Or if Marc Lajoie, Ethan Del Mastro and Jacob Holmes would have developed their puck skills and speed. For once following the CHL drafts may actually pay off for the NHL draft

All of them have good defensive IQ and even a bit of physicality, but they mostly needed work on skating.