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The Never Too Early 2021 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

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SeaOfBlue said:
Considering all of our "size" draft picks in the past have sucked while the IQ/skill picks have become our top prospects, probably not the best idea...

Not too many large guys worth drafting.
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This shouldn't be such a black and white issue. We shouldn't draft for size alone, yet you also want to have some balance in your prospect system too. Drafting for any one characteristic is going to create an imbalance. Where Hunter had drafted for just size, if Dubas and co were going to look at players with size, I would suspect that size would only be part of the equation, as to why that player was selected.

Also, suggesting that we drafted big guys before, and they all failed to work out, isn't a reason to conclude that no big players ever work out.
 
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Fogelhund said:
This shouldn't be such a black and white issue. We shouldn't draft for size alone, yet you also want to have some balance in your prospect system too. Drafting for any one characteristic is going to create an imbalance. Where Hunter had drafted for just size, if Dubas and co were going to look at players with size, I would suspect that size would only be part of the equation, as to why that player was selected.

Also, suggesting that we drafted big guys before, and they all failed to work out, isn't a reason to conclude that no big players ever work out.
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The issue isn't really size imo. Its more that the type of players Dubas & co look for with size are drafted by the time even our first pick comes up. There are obviously some left, but those are the guys you need to squint your eyes and hope the development team can turn into something whereas you can simply grab guys who are underrated due to something like being small that some GMs still can't get over.

That being said, there are plenty of big guys id take a chance on in this draft. I'm just not sure I see real NHL upside in too many guys outside the 1st round this year.
 
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Fogelhund said:
This shouldn't be such a black and white issue. We shouldn't draft for size alone, yet you also want to have some balance in your prospect system too. Drafting for any one characteristic is going to create an imbalance. Where Hunter had drafted for just size, if Dubas and co were going to look at players with size, I would suspect that size would only be part of the equation, as to why that player was selected.

Also, suggesting that we drafted big guys before, and they all failed to work out, isn't a reason to conclude that no big players ever work out.
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There is a difference between "drafting for size" or wanting to see them draft guys more size and drafting guys "with size". Drafting "for size" implies that is the focus of the picks, which should absolutely never be the case. That doesn't mean you never draft guys "with size", but that is only because they have the other attributes you are actually focusing on getting (i.e. IQ, speed, skill, etc.).

It depends on which team you talk to, but size doesn't even get factored into the conversation most of the time. It's mostly treated as a bonus "this guy can skate, shoot, etc... and he is big too!" or as a qualifier "his not the best skater but he is solid for his size".

Not looking for size also does not mean you draft small or soft players, which is not really what Dubas has done anyways.
 
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Fogelhund said:
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Those numbers are great but he has a major advantage right now... Defenses are rusty and none of them are that great in his division in the first place. He'd have more trouble scoring under the conditions of Wright, McDavid, etc.

I do like how he is 98 though. All is missing is that he goes to Edmonton and they would have 97, 98, and 99.

You are going to have another Crosby vs. Malkin standoff with him and Matvei Michkov in 2023. Michkov just turned 16 and he is already good enough to play in the KHL once he bulks up a little bit.
 
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SeaOfBlue said:
Those numbers are great but he has a major advantage right now... Defenses are rusty and none of them are that great in his division in the first place. He'd have more trouble scoring under the conditions of Wright, McDavid, etc.

I do like how he is 98 though. All is missing is that he goes to Edmonton and they would have 97, 98, and 99.

You are going to have another Crosby vs. Malkin standoff with him and Matvei Michkov in 2023. Michkov just turned 16 and he is already good enough to play in the KHL once he bulks up a little bit.
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I am so excited for the next few drafts
 
Fogelhund said:
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I'm pretty sure Spezza was never granted exceptional status and that Tavares was the first ever player. Also just noticed that d men weren't taken into consideration (Ekblad and Day). Bedard is a hell of a player and he will only get better as time goes on. I can't wait to see what the future brings for him.
 
Fonzieleaf said:
I'm pretty sure Spezza was never granted exceptional status and that Tavares was the first ever player. Also just noticed that d men weren't taken into consideration (Ekblad and Day). Bedard is a hell of a player and he will only get better as time goes on. I can't wait to see what the future brings for him.
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Spezza played a year in the OHL before going through the OHL draft because of some old rule.
 
Bedard... 14 games now, 26 points... 1.86 PPG, as a 16 year old, leading the WHL in scoring. Second place on his team, has 15 points. Despite all the notations above in this thread, what he is doing is pretty special, at 15 years old. He's off to the Canadian U18 team shortly, at 15 years old.
 
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Fogelhund said:
This shouldn't be such a black and white issue. We shouldn't draft for size alone, yet you also want to have some balance in your prospect system too. Drafting for any one characteristic is going to create an imbalance. Where Hunter had drafted for just size, if Dubas and co were going to look at players with size, I would suspect that size would only be part of the equation, as to why that player was selected.

Also, suggesting that we drafted big guys before, and they all failed to work out, isn't a reason to conclude that no big players ever work out.
Click to expand...
Size is only useful when it's attached to an otherwise good player. You can always trade from an area of strength to fill a hole. I'd honestly just take the highest upside player every single pick if I ran the scouting. Size be damned
 
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Fogelhund said:
Bedard... 14 games now, 26 points... 1.86 PPG, as a 16 year old, leading the WHL in scoring. Second place on his team, has 15 points. Despite all the notations above in this thread, what he is doing is pretty special, at 15 years old. He's off to the Canadian U18 team shortly, at 15 years old.
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I would LOVE to luck into some teams first overall (say the team has a ton of injuries) before they had an unexpected terrible finish and draft this kid.

Could you imagine lol Boston Celtics level luck.
 
cupcrazyman said:
Leafs could have moved down last draft & picked a dman with size & scoring.

Kaiden Guhle or Braden Scheinder
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If they thought those guys would be better/ more impactful than Amirov, they would have taken them or traded down like you said.

I trust our scouting staff to make the right decision, especially in the 1st round. We've been pretty good there the last decade or so.
 
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MVPMatthews said:
Guhle wasn't getting past MTL who picked right after us..
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For good reason. He's going to be a pillar for years to come. 6'3 DMen that skate like the wind and have a serious mean streak don't come along to often.
 
cupcrazyman said:
Leafs could have moved down last draft & picked a dman with size & scoring.

Kaiden Guhle or Braden Scheinder
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Both were more like second round talents than first. Guhle can skate but he handles the puck like a grenade and has low hockey IQ. Schneider is just not skilled or fast enough to put up points regularly in the NHL. Just pick the highest ceiling player every time and you can not possibly go wrong regardless of position.
HC7 said:
For good reason. He's going to be a pillar for years to come. 6'3 DMen that skate like the wind and have a serious mean streak don't come along to often.
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Too bad that he really struggles with transitioning out of the d-zone and doesn't really have the intelligence to make an offensive difference in the NHL.
 
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DMen are funny things. Often second round picks, or fifth round picks end up being fabulous d-men. Even mid to late first rounders. I'm happy having picked Amirov where we did. I don't wish that we'd moved back and grabbed a Guhle, or a Schneider... but I do wish we had some of those guys in the system. It's hard to flaw the picks we've made this year, they've been some fantastic value, and have mostly had very good years. You think about Hirvonen and Niemala and the years, and World Juniors that they had... Miettenen has had a great year. Some will work out, some won't... same with Guhle and Schneider... they might be better than expected, about as expected or worse at the NHL level.

We go around in circles about a diversified prospect pool, and we get the.. .you don't draft for size... and of course you don't.. but maybe once in a while, if your ratings are real close on two prospects, and you have an abundance of small skill, you take the size, where the ratings are near equal.

Funny enough, we traded for Andersen, and the picks we traded ended up being Sam Steel, and Max Comtois. Comtois is EXACTLY the type of player we could use in our top six right now. A skilled LW, with size on a ELC. Look trading for Andersen was the right thing to do, no question about that, so I'm not saying it was a mistake. But you can't trade for a Comtois now, without a massive overpayment, where he was a second round pick, with size. Surely Dubas and co. are skilled enough to identify such players, who are underrated, but also have size.
 
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Fogelhund said:
DMen are funny things. Often second round picks, or fifth round picks end up being fabulous d-men. Even mid to late first rounders. I'm happy having picked Amirov where we did. I don't wish that we'd moved back and grabbed a Guhle, or a Schneider... but I do wish we had some of those guys in the system. It's hard to flaw the picks we've made this year, they've been some fantastic value, and have mostly had very good years. You think about Hirvonen and Niemala and the years, and World Juniors that they had... Miettenen has had a great year. Some will work out, some won't... same with Guhle and Schneider... they might be better than expected, about as expected or worse at the NHL level.

We go around in circles about a diversified prospect pool, and we get the.. .you don't draft for size... and of course you don't.. but maybe once in a while, if your ratings are real close on two prospects, and you have an abundance of small skill, you take the size, where the ratings are near equal.

Funny enough, we traded for Andersen, and the picks we traded ended up being Sam Steel, and Max Comtois. Comtois is EXACTLY the type of player we could use in our top six right now. A skilled LW, with size on a ELC. Look trading for Andersen was the right thing to do, no question about that, so I'm not saying it was a mistake. But you can't trade for a Comtois now, without a massive overpayment, where he was a second round pick, with size. Surely Dubas and co. are skilled enough to identify such players, who are underrated, but also have size.
Click to expand...

There haven't been too many guys out there the past few years, and the good ones were often overrated.
 
pacman25 said:
Spezza played a year in the OHL before going through the OHL draft because of some old rule.
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The old rule being that you could play with your hometown team at 15. So Spezza played for the Brampton Battalion at 15 before going first overall in the OHL draft to the Mississauga IceDogs.
 
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