Too many movies are definitely being made now. People can only afford to see so many of the blockbusters. I think the issue is that the middle tier budget movie is basically dead. It's all 150 million plus or under 15 million for the horror flicks and such
Part of it is due to audience perception as well. The type of movie that would generally have the 50-60 million dollar budget is something like a Taken. Which that one did really well, but it's the exception not the rule. Because a movie like that is easier to wait and watch on DVD or on cable or netflix. Things like the huge blockbusters are so much better on the big screen that when people can only afford to go to say 4 movies a year they are going to go to one of those and not a mid tier film. But with so many of the blockbusters coming out, it's starting.
There are some cases where a mid tier would have worked better. For example, look at the recent Ghostbusters remake. It actually did decent attendence numbers, but it's going to lose money because it's budget was around 130 million dollars. Even for such a loved intellectual property and franchise, Ghostbusters never was a franchise that should have that huge a budget. Make that movie for 50 million, it makes money.
Deadpool for instance, made enough money to make a return no matter what the budget would have been, but it only cost $50 million, because Fox was nervous with the R rating. So the film makers had to use what they had, and find a way to make it work, which actually makes the film better sometimes. Now that it made so much, the sequel will probably have a 150 million budget, but in my opinion, it should be kept the same, because they proved for that franchise that they didn't need it.
Disney is kind of the exception here. They've done such a good job with Marvel and Star Wars they've built in an audience who only goes to see those. People know if they pay the theater money for those films it will be a fun time. And because those two franchises, combined with their animated movies, make so much money, they can afford a few heavy budgeted bombs a year. Something like The Finest Hours this year never should have had the huge budget it did, but they had just made a billion dollars off Star Wars, they can afford it.
The problem is there's only one Disney.