The Sun: The Maple Leafs of season's first half are legit Stanley Cup contenders

[Menzinger]

I dont think coaching impact has mattered all that much this season.

Last season 5v5:
Shot differential: 7th in the NHL
xGF%: 10th in the NHL
Goal differential: 7th in the NHL
Team save%: 25th in the NHL

This season 5v5:
Shot differential: 18th in the NHL
xGF%: 18th in the NHL
Goal differential: 8th in the NHL
Team save%: 4th in the NHL

The additions of defensive stud Tanev and Stolarz (and the continued emergence of Woll) are the biggest factors for improvements so far this season IMO. If anything, the biggest "coaching impact" in the NHL this season has been Keefe with the Devils but even then, Markstrom is miles better than anything Keefe had in net here. If anything, looking at the team in terms of the "run of play" stuff looked at for coaching, Berube has been a downgrade, both offensively and defensively. I know we have had injuries so I'll keep giving him a chance, despite the fact we havnt improved as we have gotten healthier.

All fair points. But the problem/issue with the league as a whole is you almost need two different approaches - the ability to win during the regular season where play is more free flowing and then the post season where things tighten up.

I think we as fans (myself included) have been over hyping Berube a bit - but his value as the teams most important leader gets determined one way or the other in how he adjusts in the postseason. Keefe over thought things too much at times, we'll see how a more veteran replacement fairs instead

 

[Zybalto]

Thanks, I was interested to see how the numbers would stack up.

I will say however, our offense being down half a goal scored per game is almost entirely attributable to the injury to one player.

Those D numbers indicate no defensive regression of any kind, so it’s not all the goaltending, but obviously yeah the goaltending has been great.

Those all said, the numbers don’t capture everything, you can see the defensive structural improvements we’ve made.

Gotta get the offense on track though. Matthews being back and playing like he is the last 3 games will go a long way towards that. Then hopefully some great targeted additions to the forward group at the TDL

Considering Matthews is also very good defensively and wasnt while playing hurt, is why I still give Berube the benefit of the doubt. Keefe himself also coached over one of the more injured teams in the league too though. Whats funny is the illusion that the team is somehow greatly improved defensively because less goals are being let in. We weathered the injury storm and I'm hoping to see the tide shift in front of our great goalkeeping. Those 2 guys have been absolute rocks for us back there.

Bowman always said the keys to his success as a coach were good goaltending and special teams. Let see if Berube can provide us those in the playoffs.

 

[Zybalto]

All fair points. But the problem/issue with the league as a whole is you almost need two different approaches - the ability to win during the regular season where play is more free flowing and then the post season where things tighten up.

I think we as fans (myself included) have been over hyping Berube a bit - but his value as the teams most important leader gets determined one way or the other in how he adjusts in the postseason. Keefe over thought things too much at times, we'll see how a more veteran replacement fairs instead

I've always been in the "get this team a goaltender!" camp more than anyone and was huge on grabbing Stolarz when we did. I know lack of scoring seems to be the issue but running Campbell and Samsonov as our keepers against the Price, Bobs and Vasys of the league in tight games didnt really give our guys a shot to win the 1-0 and 2-1 games of the NHL playoffs IMO.

Every playoffs is different though and if our goaltending and health hold up, this team can beat anyone.


Probably wont say a lot more on Keefe around here but saying Keefe was "outcoached" in the playoffs when our own keeper got pulled the last 2 series for sucking so hard is exactly what IM talking about. How many teams win series with a pulled starter? like 5%?

Its why Im not surprised the Devils have turned things around under him. Just check these defensive numbers:

The NJ Devils:

Shots Against:
Last year: 29.80 (18th in the league)
This year: 25.34 (3rd in the league)

High Danger Chances Against:
Last year: 11.73 (17th in the league)
This year: 10.31 (6th in the league)

xGA/60:
Last year: 3.24 (25th in the league)
This year: 2.74 (4th in the league)

On top of that, the Devils have also a higher scoring rate than we do and have a quality starter that is spearheading an overall team save% that stands 9th in the league. Not really surprised though. The numbers have always screamed Keefe was this good a defensive coach in need of a goalie that was above backup level.

Overall the Leafs have gone from 21st for goals against to pacing for 9th this season which is great. The Devils have gone from 28th to 4th. I think I know which coach may get an Adams nomination lol.

 

[Evilhomer]

I've always been in the "get this team a goaltender!" camp more than anyone and was huge on grabbing Stolarz when we did. I know lack of scoring seems to be the issue but running Campbell and Samsonov as our keepers against the Price, Bobs and Vasys of the league in tight games didnt really give our guys a shot to win the 1-0 and 2-1 games of the NHL playoffs IMO.

Every playoffs is different though and if our goaltending and health hold up, this team can beat anyone.


Probably wont say a lot more on Keefe around here but saying Keefe was "outcoached" in the playoffs when our own keeper got pulled the last 2 series for sucking so hard is exactly what IM talking about. How many teams win series with a pulled starter? like 5%?

Its why Im not surprised the Devils have turned things around under him. Just check these defensive numbers:

The NJ Devils:

Shots Against:
Last year: 29.80 (18th in the league)
This year: 25.34 (3rd in the league)

High Danger Chances Against:
Last year: 11.73 (17th in the league)
This year: 10.31 (6th in the league)

xGA/60:
Last year: 3.24 (25th in the league)
This year: 2.74 (4th in the league)

On top of that, the Devils have also a higher scoring rate than we do and have a quality starter that is spearheading an overall team save% that stands 9th in the league. Not really surprised though. The numbers have always screamed Keefe was this good a defensive coach in need of a goalie that was above backup level.

Overall the Leafs have gone from 21st for goals against to pacing for 9th this season which is great. The Devils have gone from 28th to 4th. I think I know which coach may get an Adams nomination lol.

What no one seems to want to acknowledge about Jersey is that they also have, to this point, avoided the massive injuries they had last season - Hughes out for long stretches, Hamilton out for most of the season, etc. I woud argue that Jersey was going to rebound this season no matter who the coach was, especially with the goalie upgrades. I'm not sure Keefe has done anything special there. When I watch Jersey play, I see the same team that I saw last season, except with a better goalie and a healthier lineup. I certainly don't think Keefe is a bad coach (i.e., he isn't Patrick Roy), but I'm not sure he is responsible for the reversal in Jersey's record.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I say we sell.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'm weary of this for a few reasons, maybe a TDL addition or two can resolve the issues but here we go;

First issue is out defense group is missing a massive piece, Dallas added Tanev to their group...how do we stack up?

McCabe = Lindell
Tanev = Tanev
Harley > Rielly
Heiskaken - We have nothing close to this player
OEL > Suter
Myers/Timmins/Benoit are probably better than Lundkvist.

The second issue is the PP - it goes hot and cold but I have no faith in it producing when it counts.

Last issue is scoring depth...we likely need a better PP QB than Rielly, another top 6 LW and a 3rd line centre.

 

[darrylsittler27]

This isnt a contender. Look at their power play. We have simply sunk too much money into the wrong type of players. They will be lucky to win one round. Of our top 5 paid players not one would be called a top playoff performer and Reilly seems to be getting worse. This is not a Stanley Cup team. They do t even care their power play is garbage. That's an organization that accepts losing and sells hopium. The fans told the management not to run it back.

 

[Maple Leaf]

This isnt a contender. Look at their power play. We have simply sunk too much money into the wrong type of players. They will be lucky to win one round. Of our top 5 paid players not one would be called a top playoff performer and Reilly seems to be getting worse. This is not a Stanley Cup team. They do t even care their power play is garbage. That's an organization that accepts losing and sells hopium. The fans told the management not to run it back.

they are stanley cup contenders for those with season tickets drinking the mlse koolaid

 

[Stephen]

Id like to see Domi settle down. He is still too erratic

There’s just something about Domi that he can’t string together multiple good years in any one place. He had his happily ever after contract by remaining a Leaf but he’s really not lived up to being a player who found a place and a role.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

The only way they can convince me they're contenders is if they make it to at least the conference finals.

Even then I probably still wouldn't be convinced. If it's just bad luck they lost all those times in the first round it could easily just be good luck they won a couple rounds. I'm sorry but at this point it really is almost cup or bust.

The Shanaplan has been a massive and costly boondoggle on the world's largest hockey stage.

Ten years ago we were all sold on hope. We were sold on a future worth waiting for. On a dream of a better tomorrow.

Now that future is here.

And we're all still hoping. We're all still waiting. We're all still dreaming... of a better tomorrow.

The greatest fan base in the world deserves better than fifty seven years of "there's always next year".

 

[Nineteen67]

I've always been in the "get this team a goaltender!" camp more than anyone and was huge on grabbing Stolarz when we did. I know lack of scoring seems to be the issue but running Campbell and Samsonov as our keepers against the Price, Bobs and Vasys of the league in tight games didnt really give our guys a shot to win the 1-0 and 2-1 games of the NHL playoffs IMO.

Every playoffs is different though and if our goaltending and health hold up, this team can beat anyone.


Probably wont say a lot more on Keefe around here but saying Keefe was "outcoached" in the playoffs when our own keeper got pulled the last 2 series for sucking so hard is exactly what IM talking about. How many teams win series with a pulled starter? like 5%?

Its why Im not surprised the Devils have turned things around under him. Just check these defensive numbers:

The NJ Devils:

Shots Against:
Last year: 29.80 (18th in the league)
This year: 25.34 (3rd in the league)

High Danger Chances Against:
Last year: 11.73 (17th in the league)
This year: 10.31 (6th in the league)

xGA/60:
Last year: 3.24 (25th in the league)
This year: 2.74 (4th in the league)

On top of that, the Devils have also a higher scoring rate than we do and have a quality starter that is spearheading an overall team save% that stands 9th in the league. Not really surprised though. The numbers have always screamed Keefe was this good a defensive coach in need of a goalie that was above backup level.

Overall the Leafs have gone from 21st for goals against to pacing for 9th this season which is great. The Devils have gone from 28th to 4th. I think I know which coach may get an Adams nomination lol.

You should compare NJD to the team 2 yrs ago not last year. Last year was a write off.

 

[Nineteen67]

The biggest question is whether the guys eating up 53% of the cap are good enough hockey players to win in the playoffs.

 

[mjd1001]

You should compare NJD to the team 2 yrs ago not last year. Last year was a write off.

I agree 100% with that.

However, I look at the roster construction and players on New Jersey and I think, THAT is the team that will give the Leafs fits, they won't be able to keep up with them" And yet, the Leafs, even this year, have matched up well with NJ.

As far as the overall topic of this thread, I haven't seen much to think this Leafs team is any better, or any worse in terms of competing for the cup. They have a chance. Not a great chance, but a chance.

I do think this is the year to go all in at the trade deadlinec and if they can bring in 1-2 quality pieces, this may be there best shot with this core, but they have to not hold back on going for it.

 

[Madap]

The biggest question is whether the guys eating up 53% of the cap are good enough hockey players to win in the playoffs.

Pretty much the only question that matters, maybe outside of goaltending.

They’ve fooled us into arguing about depth D, depth F, coaching, blah blah, but at the end of the day we are nothing without them performing at an elite level.

They perform well in the regular season so some on here believe we shouldn’t question their playoff performances due to “small sample sizes” but I think we all know that’s bullshit and there is a real issue with them that is looking more and more like they will never overcome.

 

[mjd1001]

They perform well in the regular season so some on here believe we shouldn’t question their playoff performances due to “small sample sizes” but I think we all know that’s bullshit and there is a real issue with them that is looking more and more like they will never overcome.

Marner, Matthews, Reilly, Nylander all with about 50 playoff games now. Tavares with 38. Anyone who still says "small sample size" in the playoffs I can't take seriously.

They all have a drop (some of the major drop) in production in the playoffs vs regular season. There are many other stars in the league that have much less of a drop, or actually have more production in the playoffs. So the excuse of 'the game changes in the playoffs" is nothing more than an excuse.

Finally, "The Leafs play tough competition in the playoffs" is an excuse too. They played Boston, Tampa, and Florida, but they also have played Columbus and Washington, so they have played a variety of teams including a Florida and C-bus team that weren't loaded with superstars. That is an excuse also.

This year, they all need to elevate their production come playoff time.

 

[Nineteen67]

I agree 100% with that.

However, I look at the roster construction and players on New Jersey and I think, THAT is the team that will give the Leafs fits, they won't be able to keep up with them" And yet, the Leafs, even this year, have matched up well with NJ.

As far as the overall topic of this thread, I haven't seen much to think this Leafs team is any better, or any worse in terms of competing for the cup. They have a chance. Not a great chance, but a chance.

I do think this is the year to go all in at the trade deadlinec and if they can bring in 1-2 quality pieces, this may be there best shot with this core, but they have to not hold back on going for it.

It all depends on the core’s performance.
After 8 yrs it shouldn’t be a gamble going all in, but it is.

 

[Mess]

The biggest question is whether the guys eating up 53% of the cap are good enough hockey players to win in the playoffs.

Leafs need the bottom 47% of the remaining roster to carry the top 53% core 4.

 

[Zybalto]

What no one seems to want to acknowledge about Jersey is that they also have, to this point, avoided the massive injuries they had last season - Hughes out for long stretches, Hamilton out for most of the season, etc. I woud argue that Jersey was going to rebound this season no matter who the coach was, especially with the goalie upgrades. I'm not sure Keefe has done anything special there. When I watch Jersey play, I see the same team that I saw last season, except with a better goalie and a healthier lineup. I certainly don't think Keefe is a bad coach (i.e., he isn't Patrick Roy), but I'm not sure he is responsible for the reversal in Jersey's record.

You should compare NJD to the team 2 yrs ago not last year. Last year was a write off.

You both do have a point here. NJ looked like they were going to be a constant contender but then injury issues threw a wrench in their plans and they could not adapt. The fact the Leafs (who have been one of the best teams dealing with injuries the last half decade) have been able to gut out wins while injured might have been part of the appeal of the Devils grabbing Keefe.

As far as calling a season a "write off" due to injuries goes, the Leafs were in the same ballpark as the Devils for injury issues last season and I'm not sure I remember a contender getting hit with injuries as bad in the playoffs (Nylander, Matthews, Woll, McCann all hurt). Give them the injury benefit of the doubt I guess but, holy crap, did the Leafs overperform last season too then, including the playoffs.

As far as Berube goes, I was never impressed with him all that much before he joined the team (I was always pressing huge to get Dean Evason) and I'm still not all that impressed watching the team. The weird propaganda spit out by the media about greatly improved team D grates on me and he still looks liek the same guy who got lucky with a hot goaltender when he came into the league and is getting really lucky right now. We've had our own injury issues though so lets see how it all plays out the rest of the season. Hey, I'm down to win a cup with this guy even if it is due to a "hot goalie" again. Be nice to have one of those in the playoffs (that didnt get injured) just once since Belfour was in net.

 

[horner]

You both do have a point here. NJ looked like they were going to be a constant contender but then injury issues threw a wrench in their plans and they could not adapt. The fact the Leafs (who have been one of the best teams dealing with injuries the last half decade) have been able to gut out wins while injured might have been part of the appeal of the Devils grabbing Keefe.

As far as calling a season a "write off" due to injuries goes, the Leafs were in the same ballpark as the Devils for injury issues last season and I'm not sure I remember a contender getting hit with injuries as bad in the playoffs (Nylander, Matthews, Woll, McCann all hurt). Give them the injury benefit of the doubt I guess but, holy crap, did the Leafs overperform last season too then, including the playoffs.

As far as Berube goes, I was never impressed with him all that much before he joined the team (I was always pressing huge to get Dean Evason) and I'm still not all that impressed watching the team. The weird propaganda spit out by the media about greatly improved team D grates on me and he still looks liek the same guy who got lucky with a hot goaltender when he came into the league and is getting really lucky right now. We've had our own injury issues though so lets see how it all plays out the rest of the season. Hey, I'm down to win a cup with this guy even if it is due to a "hot goalie" again. Be nice to have one of those in the playoffs (that didnt get injured) just once since Belfour was in net.

Mathews has been injured all year not the player he was last yr.

A goaltender can make or break a coach.

 

[Zybalto]

Mathews has been injured all year not the player he was last yr.

A goaltender can make or break a coach.

Yea, A healthy Matthews is a huge difference maker. It sucked he went down in game 3 last year after looking as dominant as any player in the playoffs in game 2.

As far as goaltending goes, thats why I give Keefe props for enduring Campbell, Sparks, Hutch and Samsonov for almost all his tenure combined with all the injuries he had to deal with.

Top 10 coaches winning % in history with at least 350 games started:

1. Brind'Amour: .660 (Adams Award winner)
1. Keefe: .660
3. Bowman: .657 (2x Adams award winner, 5x nominee)
4. Cassidy: .640 (Adams award winner, 2x nominee)
5. Cooper: .638 (2x Adams nomination)
6. Blake: .634 (award didnt exist yet)
7. Boudreau: .626 (Adams award winner, 2x nominee)
8. Shero: .612 (Adams award winner, 2x nominee)
8. Quenneville: .612 (Adams award winner, 3x nominee)
10. Babcock: (3x Adams nomination)

Seems a little bit odd no? Considering the Adams is a regular season award, I think Keefe will finally get his due. Theres very little doubt hes had the worst goaltending of any coach on the list as well.

 

[BallardEra]

Theres very little doubt hes had the worst goaltending of any coach on the list as well.

That Caps goaltending under Boudreau was pretty mediocre too.

 

[Zybalto]

That Caps goaltending under Boudreau was pretty mediocre too.

Kinda meh at times but nowhere near the suck the Leafs have had.

Kolzig, Neuvirth, Varlamov, Theodore, Holtby are just plain better than the Leafs keepers the last half decade. Love they picked up the underrated Stolarz but, damn, just gotta stay healthy. At least its good they found something and its more of a preventative issue than something catastrophic that happened. Ultimately, Boudreau was canned due to the Caps forward stars going through a bad slump and not really goaltending related.

Just looking it up and its also a great story with Evason having the Blue Jackets in a wildcard spot one point behind the Bruins. No one expected that team to be competing for a playoff spot, thats for sure.

 

[kevsh]

The biggest question is whether the guys eating up 53% of the cap are good enough hockey players to win in the playoffs.

I think we already have the answer to that question.

Collectively they've had way too many chances to understand that they have to elevate their game and adapt to a playoff style and they have yet to either accept that or figure out how. And from what I've seen this season there is absolutely zero evidence that anything's changed.

For me it used to be "Until this core figures it out, they aren't winning anything." Now it's "As long as this core is here, they aren't winning anything."

So, with the expected Marner extension that's likely 8-9 more years before they're all gone and we can start being optimistic again? It's depressing and sobering but that's what we're looking at - and even then only if all the team's picks and prospects haven't been traded away so there's a decent team left to build around ... Minten, Knies, Cowan maybe?

 

[BallardEra]

Kinda meh at times but nowhere near the suck the Leafs have had.

Kolzig, Neuvirth, Varlamov, Theodore, Holtby are just plain better than the Leafs keepers the last half decade. Love they picked up the underrated Stolarz but, damn, just gotta stay healthy. At least its good they found something and its more of a preventative issue than something catastrophic that happened. Ultimately, Boudreau was canned due to the Caps forward stars going through a bad slump and not really goaltending related.

Just looking it up and its also a great story with Evason having the Blue Jackets in a wildcard spot one point behind the Bruins. No one expected that team to be competing for a playoff spot, thats for sure.

Holtby was the starter after Bruce went to the Ducks. He only played 21 games over two seasons under Bruce.

It was pretty mediocre before then though.