The Sun: The Maple Leafs of season's first half are legit Stanley Cup contenders

[Menzinger]

I dont think coaching impact has mattered all that much this season.

Last season 5v5:
Shot differential: 7th in the NHL
xGF%: 10th in the NHL
Goal differential: 7th in the NHL
Team save%: 25th in the NHL

This season 5v5:
Shot differential: 18th in the NHL
xGF%: 18th in the NHL
Goal differential: 8th in the NHL
Team save%: 4th in the NHL

The additions of defensive stud Tanev and Stolarz (and the continued emergence of Woll) are the biggest factors for improvements so far this season IMO. If anything, the biggest "coaching impact" in the NHL this season has been Keefe with the Devils but even then, Markstrom is miles better than anything Keefe had in net here. If anything, looking at the team in terms of the "run of play" stuff looked at for coaching, Berube has been a downgrade, both offensively and defensively. I know we have had injuries so I'll keep giving him a chance, despite the fact we havnt improved as we have gotten healthier.

All fair points. But the problem/issue with the league as a whole is you almost need two different approaches - the ability to win during the regular season where play is more free flowing and then the post season where things tighten up.

I think we as fans (myself included) have been over hyping Berube a bit - but his value as the teams most important leader gets determined one way or the other in how he adjusts in the postseason. Keefe over thought things too much at times, we'll see how a more veteran replacement fairs instead

 

[Zybalto]

Thanks, I was interested to see how the numbers would stack up.

I will say however, our offense being down half a goal scored per game is almost entirely attributable to the injury to one player.

Those D numbers indicate no defensive regression of any kind, so it’s not all the goaltending, but obviously yeah the goaltending has been great.

Those all said, the numbers don’t capture everything, you can see the defensive structural improvements we’ve made.

Gotta get the offense on track though. Matthews being back and playing like he is the last 3 games will go a long way towards that. Then hopefully some great targeted additions to the forward group at the TDL

Considering Matthews is also very good defensively and wasnt while playing hurt, is why I still give Berube the benefit of the doubt. Keefe himself also coached over one of the more injured teams in the league too though. Whats funny is the illusion that the team is somehow greatly improved defensively because less goals are being let in. We weathered the injury storm and I'm hoping to see the tide shift in front of our great goalkeeping. Those 2 guys have been absolute rocks for us back there.

Bowman always said the keys to his success as a coach were good goaltending and special teams. Let see if Berube can provide us those in the playoffs.

 

[Zybalto]

All fair points. But the problem/issue with the league as a whole is you almost need two different approaches - the ability to win during the regular season where play is more free flowing and then the post season where things tighten up.

I think we as fans (myself included) have been over hyping Berube a bit - but his value as the teams most important leader gets determined one way or the other in how he adjusts in the postseason. Keefe over thought things too much at times, we'll see how a more veteran replacement fairs instead

I've always been in the "get this team a goaltender!" camp more than anyone and was huge on grabbing Stolarz when we did. I know lack of scoring seems to be the issue but running Campbell and Samsonov as our keepers against the Price, Bobs and Vasys of the league in tight games didnt really give our guys a shot to win the 1-0 and 2-1 games of the NHL playoffs IMO.

Every playoffs is different though and if our goaltending and health hold up, this team can beat anyone.


Probably wont say a lot more on Keefe around here but saying Keefe was "outcoached" in the playoffs when our own keeper got pulled the last 2 series for sucking so hard is exactly what IM talking about. How many teams win series with a pulled starter? like 5%?

Its why Im not surprised the Devils have turned things around under him. Just check these defensive numbers:

The NJ Devils:

Shots Against:
Last year: 29.80 (18th in the league)
This year: 25.34 (3rd in the league)

High Danger Chances Against:
Last year: 11.73 (17th in the league)
This year: 10.31 (6th in the league)

xGA/60:
Last year: 3.24 (25th in the league)
This year: 2.74 (4th in the league)

On top of that, the Devils have also a higher scoring rate than we do and have a quality starter that is spearheading an overall team save% that stands 9th in the league. Not really surprised though. The numbers have always screamed Keefe was this good a defensive coach in need of a goalie that was above backup level.

Overall the Leafs have gone from 21st for goals against to pacing for 9th this season which is great. The Devils have gone from 28th to 4th. I think I know which coach may get an Adams nomination lol.

 

[Evilhomer]

I've always been in the "get this team a goaltender!" camp more than anyone and was huge on grabbing Stolarz when we did. I know lack of scoring seems to be the issue but running Campbell and Samsonov as our keepers against the Price, Bobs and Vasys of the league in tight games didnt really give our guys a shot to win the 1-0 and 2-1 games of the NHL playoffs IMO.

Every playoffs is different though and if our goaltending and health hold up, this team can beat anyone.


Probably wont say a lot more on Keefe around here but saying Keefe was "outcoached" in the playoffs when our own keeper got pulled the last 2 series for sucking so hard is exactly what IM talking about. How many teams win series with a pulled starter? like 5%?

Its why Im not surprised the Devils have turned things around under him. Just check these defensive numbers:

The NJ Devils:

Shots Against:
Last year: 29.80 (18th in the league)
This year: 25.34 (3rd in the league)

High Danger Chances Against:
Last year: 11.73 (17th in the league)
This year: 10.31 (6th in the league)

xGA/60:
Last year: 3.24 (25th in the league)
This year: 2.74 (4th in the league)

On top of that, the Devils have also a higher scoring rate than we do and have a quality starter that is spearheading an overall team save% that stands 9th in the league. Not really surprised though. The numbers have always screamed Keefe was this good a defensive coach in need of a goalie that was above backup level.

Overall the Leafs have gone from 21st for goals against to pacing for 9th this season which is great. The Devils have gone from 28th to 4th. I think I know which coach may get an Adams nomination lol.

What no one seems to want to acknowledge about Jersey is that they also have, to this point, avoided the massive injuries they had last season - Hughes out for long stretches, Hamilton out for most of the season, etc. I woud argue that Jersey was going to rebound this season no matter who the coach was, especially with the goalie upgrades. I'm not sure Keefe has done anything special there. When I watch Jersey play, I see the same team that I saw last season, except with a better goalie and a healthier lineup. I certainly don't think Keefe is a bad coach (i.e., he isn't Patrick Roy), but I'm not sure he is responsible for the reversal in Jersey's record.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I say we sell.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'm weary of this for a few reasons, maybe a TDL addition or two can resolve the issues but here we go;

First issue is out defense group is missing a massive piece, Dallas added Tanev to their group...how do we stack up?

McCabe = Lindell
Tanev = Tanev
Harley > Rielly
Heiskaken - We have nothing close to this player
OEL > Suter
Myers/Timmins/Benoit are probably better than Lundkvist.

The second issue is the PP - it goes hot and cold but I have no faith in it producing when it counts.

Last issue is scoring depth...we likely need a better PP QB than Rielly, another top 6 LW and a 3rd line centre.

 

[darrylsittler27]

This isnt a contender. Look at their power play. We have simply sunk too much money into the wrong type of players. They will be lucky to win one round. Of our top 5 paid players not one would be called a top playoff performer and Reilly seems to be getting worse. This is not a Stanley Cup team. They do t even care their power play is garbage. That's an organization that accepts losing and sells hopium. The fans told the management not to run it back.

 

[Maple Leaf]

This isnt a contender. Look at their power play. We have simply sunk too much money into the wrong type of players. They will be lucky to win one round. Of our top 5 paid players not one would be called a top playoff performer and Reilly seems to be getting worse. This is not a Stanley Cup team. They do t even care their power play is garbage. That's an organization that accepts losing and sells hopium. The fans told the management not to run it back.

they are stanley cup contenders for those with season tickets drinking the mlse koolaid

 

[Stephen]

Id like to see Domi settle down. He is still too erratic

There’s just something about Domi that he can’t string together multiple good years in any one place. He had his happily ever after contract by remaining a Leaf but he’s really not lived up to being a player who found a place and a role.