Dayjobdave
Registered User
- Apr 29, 2010
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I really like what Berube and Trey have done with the team but I’m not emotionally prepared to agree with Steve Simmons.
The Sun: The Maple Leafs of season's first half are legit Stanley Cup contenders
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ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Still have the Jets, Wild and Kings coaches to deal with. As it stands, I might give the edge to the guy in Winnipeg if the Caps fall off. Lots of hockey to be played.
Evilhomer
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2019
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Maybe it won't make a difference, but the Leafs will finish ahead of Washington, Minnesota and Winnipeg by the end of the season.
Why do they have to finish above Washington, Minnesota and Winnipeg to be considered serious cup contenders?
ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Possible but do you really think this team has played as good as their record? Make no mistake, they now know how to defend and have solid goaltending but the biggest thing that has impressed me is their ability to stay in and pull out games they have been outplayed in. Can't do that without great D and G, especially when you play the elite teams. Shame Dubas never realized this much.
Evilhomer
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- Oct 10, 2019
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They don't. I was referring to Berube winning coach of the year. In terms of Cup conteders, I wouldn't expect any of Washington, Minnesota or Winnipeg, particularly the latter two, to do much in the playoffs.
Evilhomer
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Look at it in reverse. I haven't seen any other team in the Eastern conference that would be much of a threat to the Leafs, other than a fully healthy Panthers team with some additions on defense and a prime Bob. The Leafs have absolutely improved, but they are also going to very much benefit from the decline of the Eastern conference.
In the West, I'm not sure what to make of Vegas right now. They are on a heater, but I don't see a Cup-winning lineup there.
- Dec 12, 2017
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Mess
Global Moderator
"Defense wins Championships"
If that is one's belief in playoff success then its better to have strong goaltending and strong team defense then it is to have a bun of overpaid forwards that struggle in the playoffs.
"Good teams are built from the Goalie out, through strong Defense and strength down the middle".
Leafs now have a competent NHL GM, and real proven winning NHL coach, and with Stolarz and Woll among the best goaltending in the NHL in terms of team SV%.
I'm not guaranteeing we're winning, BUT I'm a lot more hopeful then in past years when we had a team built to outscore our mistakes playing Run & Gun and not physical Dump & Chase hockey.
Evilhomer
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Gary Nylund
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- Oct 10, 2013
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You really need to stop with the predictions.The biggest threat to the Leafs over the last 8 years is the Leafs themselves. We still have M&M&JT who's production drops off big time when the going gets tough. Maybe we've improved enough elsewhere to win a round but make no mistake, if those guys don't earn their pay for a change in the playoffs, this team isn't going deep.
MilkofthePoppy
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Evilhomer
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I think we will see a different performance from these guys in the playoffs because of the coaching change.
I dont think coaching impact has mattered all that much this season.
Last season 5v5:
Shot differential: 7th in the NHL
xGF%: 10th in the NHL
Goal differential: 7th in the NHL
Team save%: 25th in the NHL
This season 5v5:
Shot differential: 18th in the NHL
xGF%: 18th in the NHL
Goal differential: 8th in the NHL
Team save%: 4th in the NHL
The additions of defensive stud Tanev and Stolarz (and the continued emergence of Woll) are the biggest factors for improvements so far this season IMO. If anything, the biggest "coaching impact" in the NHL this season has been Keefe with the Devils but even then, Markstrom is miles better than anything Keefe had in net here. If anything, looking at the team in terms of the "run of play" stuff looked at for coaching, Berube has been a downgrade, both offensively and defensively. I know we have had injuries so I'll keep giving him a chance, despite the fact we havnt improved as we have gotten healthier.
Last season 5v5:
Shot differential: 7th in the NHL
xGF%: 10th in the NHL
Goal differential: 7th in the NHL
Team save%: 25th in the NHL
This season 5v5:
Shot differential: 18th in the NHL
xGF%: 18th in the NHL
Goal differential: 8th in the NHL
Team save%: 4th in the NHL
The additions of defensive stud Tanev and Stolarz (and the continued emergence of Woll) are the biggest factors for improvements so far this season IMO. If anything, the biggest "coaching impact" in the NHL this season has been Keefe with the Devils but even then, Markstrom is miles better than anything Keefe had in net here. If anything, looking at the team in terms of the "run of play" stuff looked at for coaching, Berube has been a downgrade, both offensively and defensively. I know we have had injuries so I'll keep giving him a chance, despite the fact we havnt improved as we have gotten healthier.
robertmac43
Forever 43!
- Mar 31, 2015
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What are the actual values, out of curiosity? Some stats differences come across more significant than they actually are when shared as NHL rank.
Hellcat
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- Jul 13, 2022
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For all the flowers the Leafs seem to be getting recently, I think it's unfounded. They have not really played all that well structurally, they allow far too many shots, far too many high danger shots, they do not generate enough shots, they take far too many PIM's, they rely far too much on Woll and Stolarz. Berube's system has yet to show its face.
I understand the Woll and Stolarz are part of the team but a good team can lose a couple of players and still be good, lose Woll and Stolarz at the same time we hove no chance. Lose Marner and Matty at the same time and have Woll and Stolarz playing at the high rate they are playing, I think we got a chance.
This team is not good because of sound structural play, it is good because the goalies cover for the leaky defensive play.
Show me a great goalie and I will show you a great coach.
I understand the Woll and Stolarz are part of the team but a good team can lose a couple of players and still be good, lose Woll and Stolarz at the same time we hove no chance. Lose Marner and Matty at the same time and have Woll and Stolarz playing at the high rate they are playing, I think we got a chance.
This team is not good because of sound structural play, it is good because the goalies cover for the leaky defensive play.
Show me a great goalie and I will show you a great coach.
Last season 5v5:
Shot differential: 53.09
xGF%: 51.99
Goal differential: 54.48
Team save%: 90.82
This season 5v5:
Shot differential: 49.59
xGF%: 49.97
Goal differential: 55.66
Team save%: 92.72
Pretty much tells the tale. Having both SF% and xGF% underwater is horrible for a contender. Looking deeper at outcomes (which are the most important thing most would agree) and its pretty much what everyone sees:
5v5:
Goals For:
Last season: 3.00
This season: 2.54
Goals Against:
Last season: 2.51
This season: 2.06
Team save%:
Last season: 90.82 (25th in the NHL)
This season: 92.72 (4th in the NHL)
All situations:
Goals For:
Last season: 3.58
This season: 3.12
Goals Against:
Last season: 3.13
This season: 2.72
Team save%:
Last season: 89.33 (23rd in the NHL)
This season: 90.70 (3rd in the NHL)
Our goalies are just smoking this year making up for our lack of scoring and ability to carry play.
How does the D stand up?
Shots Against:
Last year: 29.38 (13th in the league)
This year: 29.26 (26th in the league)
High Danger Chances Against:
Last year: 11.84 (18th in the league)
This year: 11.01 (18th in the league)
xGA/60:
Last year: 3.03 (14th in the league)
This year: 3.08 (24th in the league)
Interesting to see the wildly different rankings with shots and scoring trending down this season. Again though, the 2 big outliers are that we finally have great goaltending but are also down halfish a goal scored per game.
The Hanging Jowl
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- Apr 2, 2017
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I don't care what pundits are saying and I realize they're leading the division with a healthy lead but sorry, I just don't see it as real. I feel like they've been really lucky.
Evilhomer
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2019
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Lucky? Come on. I don't think it's anything more complicated than the fact that they have played well for large stretches of the season, and at the same time they are fortunate that the rest of the Atlantic division has turned to junk. Florida will likely lose again tonight. Boston and Tampa are both struggling. In prior years, the leafs would be in a dogfight with all three of those teams. The biggest difference this season is that those teams have all taken several steps back. I don't see any reason for that to change in the second half of the season. It anything, Boston will likely fall even further back, and Tampa and Florida will fight for second and third in the division.
HockeyVirus
16/34/88/91/44 - Pathetic losers
- Nov 15, 2020
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End of the day, it seems like every team who goes deep one of the things they have is strong goaltending. Teams without it are the exception. The fact we never let any games get away from us and have such strong goalies is a great foundation for winning playoff games.
Just need to wish for health and that Berube gets these guys to believe they can do it and that it is different
Just need to wish for health and that Berube gets these guys to believe they can do it and that it is different
MK78
Registered User
- Apr 8, 2023
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The Leafs are in a pretty good place now, and despite some rather important injuries have had the dept to keep on going.
The defensive improvement has been key, and I hope that will help them in the playoffs where they haven't been able to outscore their defensive problems to win just one series.
I think these will be the keys to further success:
Stolarz comes back and remains healthy and effective as he has before the injury
Woll continues to play as he has, and stays healthy
Matthews stays healthy and picks up the scoring.
Rielly either starts putting up points or steps up his defensive game
Domi gets going on that 3rd line.
The rest is pretty much ok barring any major injuries to the rest of the team.
The defensive improvement has been key, and I hope that will help them in the playoffs where they haven't been able to outscore their defensive problems to win just one series.
I think these will be the keys to further success:
Stolarz comes back and remains healthy and effective as he has before the injury
Woll continues to play as he has, and stays healthy
Matthews stays healthy and picks up the scoring.
Rielly either starts putting up points or steps up his defensive game
Domi gets going on that 3rd line.
The rest is pretty much ok barring any major injuries to the rest of the team.
Thanks, I was interested to see how the numbers would stack up.
I will say however, our offense being down half a goal scored per game is almost entirely attributable to the injury to one player.
Those D numbers indicate no defensive regression of any kind, so it’s not all the goaltending, but obviously yeah the goaltending has been great.
Those all said, the numbers don’t capture everything, you can see the defensive structural improvements we’ve made.
Gotta get the offense on track though. Matthews being back and playing like he is the last 3 games will go a long way towards that. Then hopefully some great targeted additions to the forward group at the TDL
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