It seems like they realized Broberg was in over his head so acquired Fowler to insulate him.
The Loss of Broberg and Holloway Gripe Thread
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Trafalgar Sadge Law
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- Nov 8, 2007
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That makes no sense when Broberg has already spent more than half his minutes this season with Faulk and Suter was the one moved to the bottom pairing with Perunovich. He actually has the best numbers into elites among the Blues top 4 dmen.
Behind Enemy Lines
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Haha, why would anyone expect Broberg to walk into a top pairing role on a veteran defense? Leddy and Parayko were their top pairing for years but Leddy playing only 4 games this year pushed Broberg into D1 toi and responsibilities.
Naw, good organizations slot their players appropriately. They also buy low on quality assets like their future top 4 d guy (still young enough to potentially project top pair) or beating the market for a cheap buy on a quality veteran d-man to fill their top pair injury.
The story of the great Offer Sheet Heist of 2024 will be played out over years with episodic ups and downs naturally occurring with pre-prime year talent emerging into pedigree projections. It's a pyrrhic victory to hang on to hopes otherwise.
McDNicks17
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Trafalgar Sadge Law
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Bro literally just turn on the game. Wherever the hell you found that lineup card it's not what's happening on the ice. Broberg is mostly playing with Faulk and a little bit with Parayko against Florida's top 6. Don't think I've seen him take a single shift with Perunovich lol. It's mostly Suter playing with Perunovich in the easy matchups. Not perfect in terms of evidence but you can see the pairings via minutes played and xGF shares too (Florida's big guns are kinda owning Broberg's pairing and the Thomas line but that's a different story).
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Mr Positive
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That seems normal considering how young Broberg is. They have a long term plan for him
The Fowler acquisition is interesting though. I figured they are just trying to make the playoffs, which is likely true, but maybe they feel giving Broberg too much responsibility will stall his development
Edit: I don't see the Blues going anywhere though. If Broberg and Holloway develop into stars, players like Faulk, Parayko and even their star players will exit their primes. It seems unlikely that a cup window will open
It’s happened to young guys before so it makes sense that they try to ensure they don’t destroy his confidence.
Behind Enemy Lines
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Actual Deployment and Ice Time Minutes tonight ... road game against the defending Stanley Cup Champions Panthers... in a 1-1 game headed for overtime.
Broberg 18:35 toi , 17:58 ev, .37pk
Suter 16:481toi, .02 pp, .38 pk
Context matters. Broberg is getting ice-time and the Blues are managing his situational play surrounding with a veteran d-corp. This is a long-term approach being taken with a still pre-peak years defenseman. Won't be and will never be a straight hockey stick development path. Will have ups and downs. Solid development route within a veteran d-corp.
EDIT: Looking at the player's splits, he actually plays more toi in road games than at home, 21:53 to 19:50. His highest monthly toi has been December 22:46, 3 points in 8 games, +1. Again like any young player will have his stumbles but early days looks to be covering the low risk gamble made.
Blues vs. Panthers (Dec 20, 2024) Box Score - ESPN
Box score for the St. Louis Blues vs. Florida Panthers NHL game from December 20, 2024 on ESPN. Includes all goals, assists and penalty minutes stats.
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SupremeTeam16
5-14-6-1
Parayko, Fowler and Falk all had more then 4 minutes more ice time then Broberg, not exactly an endorsement when there’s that kind of gap and he’s close in toi to the bottom pair then he is the top 3.
They were smart to acquire Fowler though because it’s only a matter of time until Broberg blows out another knee or another should or gets a core injury.
They were smart to acquire Fowler though because it’s only a matter of time until Broberg blows out another knee or another should or gets a core injury.
Behind Enemy Lines
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Pretty simple coaching common sense. Lean on your veteran defense and grow up your young player without overwhelming. The cumulative age of those 3 veterans is 96. Now dig into their # of NHL games played and the answer 'why' is self evident.
19:33 toi in a 2-1 OT road game in the Cup Champions barn is impressive for a pre-prime years defender with 102 regular season NHL games. Missed one game and showed up in a tight game against a buzz saw team in their home building.
Two smart buy-low acquisitions to build up their blueline. Build up the top end of your d-corp with the immediate and long-term vision firmly in mind.
SupremeTeam16
5-14-6-1
Well it’s sure doing them a lot of good lol 5 points out and every team between them and a wildcard has games in hand.
It was a greasy move by a desperate GM in a small market who knows his hundred man ownership group will shut down spending if they think the team is going in the wrong direction. He’s already overpaid for guys on the wrong side of their primes and dished out big deals to good but not great players and the team is still sinking, might as well over pay for a few more guys while the purse strings are still open.
He’s just entrenching their position as a mediocre almost made it playoff team and ensuring they don’t get any actual difference makers any time in the near future.
harpoon
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Oh bingo. It’s so tiring to hear people prattle on and on about ‘anticipating the market’ and ‘long term vision’. I like your words much better. A ‘greasy move from a desperate man’.
Behind Enemy Lines
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The Blues (who I've never liked) are trying to thread the needle on a retool instead of deep rebuild. They are resetting their team around their prime year forward group of Thomas, Kyrou, Neighbours with intent to roll over their roster with the prospect pool they've built up. I imagine it's not a market like Edmonton that can tolerate a decade + rebuild(s). Reasonable calculated risk as we increasingly see deep rebuild approaches taking extended durations.
Armstrong was on public record before free agency he would consider offer sheets to improve his team. The Oiler situation was obvious in its high risk factors and they walked themselves into golden handcuffs. Choosing inaction proved extremely costly.
Don't get me wrong I hope St. Louis fails in their bid to be competitive. Just don't think the balance will be determined on buy low acquisition of an age 23 top ten draft defenseman and a second age 22 winger centre coming off deep Stanley Cup playoff experience. Broberg is hitting his development target with top 4 all situational minutes including some OT ice tonight in a 2-1 game in Florida. He's executing on the development miles and dollars made by Edmonton. Tough lesson for the ex super agent's tenure in Edmonton. It's about poor asset management.
unicornBLOOD
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i agree, i don't know how anyone could argue and say that the Blues overpaid in assets for Broberg or Fowler. Both are very serviceable puck moving NHL dmen. If they chose to move on from either one, I don't they'd have any problem trading them for more than they spend to aquire them. Same with Holloway.
As an Oilers fan, I hate that the team mismanaged them, their contracts, and their development, and then gambled and lost with their RFA deals, even though 99% of the time, if not more, it works. Were they the pieces needed to win the cup this year? probably not, would they of helped, for sure.
SupremeTeam16
5-14-6-1
I think it’s easy to declare it was poor asset management in hindsight and from the outside looking in but the fact is that Jackson handled the situation how every management group in a tight cap environment does when it comes to RFA’s coming off ELC’s with no arb rights, his only mistake was believing that a desperate GM wouldn’t break from their accepted tradition of not dishing out inflationary offer sheets to mostly unproven players. I also think Jackson is smart enough that if he believed an offer sheet was imminent he would have explored trading either or both players. When I look at the situation, timeline and the people involved it’s pretty clear that known greaseball Darren Ferris intention the entire time was to get his client out of Edmonton but he wanted to dictate the situation so he slow played standard rfa negotiations to buy time for him and Armstrong to spring their trap. I don’t think it matter what the Oilers offered, their camp never had any intention of signing in Edmonton but they negotiated and made it seem like they would in order to ensure the offer sheet plan worked because he didn’t want to risk spooking Jackson into possibly trading Broberg into a situation they wouldn’t want.
In the end the Oilers got knifed because they played the way every gm does when it comes to rfa’s and even with STL and Ferris colluding to do it at the worse possible time for the Oilers, the team still came away with cap flexibility and asset currency for their cup window and their performance hasn’t suffered at all, in fact it’s been improved.
Behind Enemy Lines
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It was easy to project the risks. The Oilers were broadly seen as ripe for offer sheet in a bull market with first substantive revenue bump post covid. Jackson was hired in large part for his experience as a super agent fluent with the CBA and all the nuances. He was also experienced with client relationships and the issues with Broberg and agent went back virtually to his start with the organization. Deteriorated into a public trade request complete with confusion whether or not the agent had been granted permission to seek a trade. The trade request never rescinded.
Further salt in the wound your noted 'greaseball' agent (doing his job throughout the player organization development disconnect) worked with Jackson in the same agency. In fact, the two of them worked on McDavid's exceptional status petition together. There should have been no surprises in terms of situation, status player organization relationship, nor the motivations of the agent involved - already expressed to the team and a known professional work associate to Jackson.
You make it sound like the guy running a billion dollar business, trained as a lawyer and experienced as a super agent and with prior team experience were innocent babes in the woods falling victim to conditions they either blatantly ignored or were woefully naive. Further reported that a similar ignored Holloway agent with one lone client felt stonewalled himself with the Oilers organization so reached out to Ferris for advise and voila the double jeopardy trap established through inaction by the former super agent and management team.
The Oilers didn't get knifed by anyone. This was self inflicted wounds in which they ignored all the risk factors, went on a July 1 spending spree including players like Josh Brown and Stetcher while not prioritizing any action with their two pedigree blue chip players fresh off strong support in a game 7 Cup Run. Inaction unfortunate had consequences and the market reset the value on two low hanging quality young talents on a team that blew past its imposed allowance on July 1 and felt there was no need to actively negotiate or explore contingencies ... with a natural starting point with St. Louis with whom there was multiple reports of ongoing trade deadline discussion for both players mere months before. It should have mattered what the Oilers offered because had they done any simple pro-active negotiation with one or both players they quite possibly had avoided double jeopardy and kept their options open instead of passively letting the market squeeze them having placed themselves into cap purgatory.
It's an embarrassing, historic misstep. One that was widely reported as a threat within new market conditions, a damaged player reputation, and professional working relationship with the agent involved. Lots of talk about improving development from Jackson on day 1 hiring yet when it came to this team's NHL playoff steeled young future, there was no pro-active effort to talk about the plans for them nor any negotiation with the Cup run they all rode on together.
Fishy McScales
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Not to disagree with your overall points, but I fail to see what Brown's and Stecher's contracts had to do with Broberg and Holloway?
A contract that can be buried does not prevent other contracts from being signed.
Fourier
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Broberg played 8:49 with Faulk and 5:22 with Perunovich vs Florida 5 vs 5.
Fourier
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I have thought about this over and over to see if I could come around to your position. I looked at many years with a variety of players in similar situation both with flat caps and when the cap was rising, and I still do not see anything exceptional about the Oilers here that is different from almost any other top team. They literally acted in the same manner as every other team in the same situation since pretty much day one of the cap. The best I can do is that hiring a GM late may have been a factor. But in reality, with the team playing deep into June that was not really unexpected.
I think this comes down to St. Louis wanted Broberg specifically and the player wanted out. Even though there is not suppose to be contact prior to July 1 we all know that this happens routinely. It would not surprise me at all if Broberg knew and OS from St. Louis was a distinct possibility.
I suspect that people also over estimate what the Oilers could have gotten had they dealt Broberg. They ended up with a 2nd and Fisher who just made the US WJHC team. If you compare this with the return for Jiricek it may not look so good. But Jiricek I would argue had much more value than Broberg would have in the off season. He had a higher draft pedigree, was two and a half years younger, was more established at the NHL level and is a RHD who is viewed to have a lot of offensive upside.
Aerchon
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Good post.
I just can never understand why anyone would "spin" what seem clear cut mismanagement mistakes. No matter who has been in the positions "excessive" or... "unforced" mistakes/errors is the norm for Edmonton. To have a cup window at all is a respectable achievement but it really appears like success in spite of management rather than because of it.
Broberg had a great playoffs that warranted more attention than he got from Edmonton. But there was no way Edmonton could realistically tie up that much money with that little to go on. His hot start makes him look worth the money and I think he will cover the spread but that contract was a gamble that St Louis could afford. Broberg loss will be judged more by hindsight than anything else.
Holloway was just bad management. No excuses. Be nice if current management at least took responsibility for it rather than make excuses. I know in a public job that's not going to happen but still... even without hindsight they dropped the soap on Holloway.
With both players being somewhat injury prone that "might" be the only thing that keeps the dunce hat off JJ and Bowman long term.
Behind Enemy Lines
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Yup, for sure. I know they are both contracts that can be buried. I've described them as pre-purchasing their trade deadline depth d-men. Only mention them because they were prioritized over Broberg and Holloway for contracts instead of investing time and pro-active negotiation opportunity for these players that just went to game 7 Cup Final with you. And who in so doing showed their ability to be everyday players now and as support pieces to extend the winning window (which Jackson said was a priority in day 1 on the job).
Optically it was also another message for these two young players that the organization was prioritizing others over them. We know via reports that Holloway's inexperienced agent sought out Broberg's agents advise on a lack of negotiation/communications.
Behind Enemy Lines
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Yes, we'll never reconcile our differing opinions nor will be have a clear picture of the prospective trade return that might have been with a pro-active negotiation and trade call contingency planning. I fallback to the reporting that suggested the Oilers and Blues had trade discussions wit h the Blues, quite possibly over two trade deadline cycles. The qualified rumours revolved around Broberg and Holloway for a retained goal scoring, point producing top six forward Bushnevich (career 423 pts in 550 games). That's a solid baseline for a trade return that could be deployed or leveraged as a trade asset.
We also saw the McLeod trade materialize without warning presenting another scenario of moving one or two NHL ready assets and their on the books cap hits into future pedigree prospects to build up a poor depth pipeline and quality bodies able to plug in shorter term to this window in a similar vein to Savoie. But the other pragmatic reason to make trade calls is to also serve notice of intention to match on their young talent.
Jiricek had a similar, erratic development issue. Younger so maybe perceived with more value but Broberg came on final four NHL playoff competition which delivered the last impression of this player (and Holloway too). It is an important small sample given the stakes involved and circumstances of having his number called after a month rusting as a Black Ace. All of which followed a dominant AHL season with huge minutes, point production and PK ability. His whole game came together which propelled him into rising to the team's call deep into a playoff at risk of being on the brink. Broberg's potential was very much manifesting for all to see (and was commented upon by coaching and leadership group of players).
The Blues with known deep interest and lots of sustained scouting presence in Bako games didn't have the required draft collateral to make the offer sheet until mid-August. Past trade discussions involving the two at risk youth. Would have been an efficient starting point adjacent to active negotiation to see if one or both players could be signed within whatever the team's final budget threshold might have been. Get clarity and concurrently work the phones to set the market on two attractive young pedigree players who are coming into focus as NHL players (and age that still carries upside). There was no reason to risk the market imposing new value on your best young talent.
So we can agree again to disagree. I was stuck in an airport overnight last night and clearly a bit craggy in my postings. But Broberg is a loss and I feel this team left value on the table with inactivity on a damaged relationship.
But he isn’t their young player. It’s pretty clear he has mercenary predilections. So taking the long term view they are developing him and paying double.
Behind Enemy Lines
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Even Oiler CEO Jackson openly conceded Broberg's development had issues and Holland also noted the organizational challenge with the team trading for veteran left dmen Keith, Kulak, Ekholm which effected the potential to onboard a mature window phase team. Made the team last year only to see the run pulled when Woodcroft went into job and season saving mode opting for more mature veteran certainty. This was about opportunity. He took the demotion to Bakersfield to play and killed it. So much so that he was trusted by the coaching staff to airlift in deep playoff competition against Dallas and Florida.
Another team saw that potential plenty and stepped up on their belief to reset Broberg (and Holloway's) financial value through a precision offer sheet with an Oilers team that overspent its cap and chose to be inactive instead of pro-active with their homegrown talent. Looks like St. Louis has made a good, low risk bet on two pre-peak season pedigree players.
