Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[666]

Quite a few Leaf forwards have a better plus/minus than Marner this year, I guess they are more valuable this year.
Quite a few players have better plus/minus than Marner this year, I guess you are saying that makes them more valuable this season.

Dear jebus, some of you people are obsessed with using small sample sizes to make your points. Why don't you just go back a few years and look at the numbers to see the long term trends. I'm not going to do the work for you. Also note that Marners ALWAYS plays against the Crobys etc.

 

[Confucius]

Dear jebus, some of you people are obsessed with using small sample sizes to make your points. Why don't you just go back a few years and look at the numbers to see the long term trends. I'm not going to do the work for you.

It’s over a 1/3 of a season if that’s small, playoffs are a blink of the eye. The reason I didn’t bother going back is many players weren’t here.

 

[666]

It’s 1/3 of a season if that’s small, playoffs are a blink of the eye

Yes it's a very small sample size for that stat or any other for that matter. There is a new coach, Matthews was hurt for a while, Marner always plays against the best etc etc. Just look up the longer term or career numbers and will see very clear trends. If you think that Marner has played poorly this season because a few teammates have better +/- then I can't help you anymore.

 

[Zybalto]

5v5 in the playoffs the last 3 years for Leafs big 4 (along with other big money forwards in the east):

Points production:

Matthews: 2.36
Marner: 2.19
Kucherov: 1.95
Barkov: 1.81
Nylander: 1.65
Panarin: 1.41
Tavares: 1.38
Pastrnak: 1.38


Goals scored while on the ice:

Marner: 3.08
Kucherov: 3.05
Barkov: 2.84
Matthews: 2.81
Pastrnak: 2.57
Panarin: 2.27
Nylander: 2.22
Tavares: 2.06


Goals against while on the ice:

Marner: 1.72
Barkov: 1.79
Kucherov: 2.04
Matthews: 2.06
Tavares: 2.19
Panarin: 2.2
Pastrnak: 2.3
Nylander: 2.56


Goal differential:

Marner: 64.20%
Barkov: 61.29%
Kucherov: 59.93%
Matthews: 57.71%
Pastrnak: 52.76%
Panarin: 50.82%
Tavares: 48.51%
Nylander: 46.47%

Goal differential relative teammates:

Marner: +22.32
Matthews: +15.84
Barkov: +13.13
Kucherov: +14.12
Pastrnak: +11.82
Panarin: +3.16
Tavares: -1.00
Nylander: -3.91


Tavares, despite his penchant for scoring and setting up big goals, has quite obviously been the issue out of the big 4 offensively. Nylander has been a production animal outside of 5v5 so it helps cover his defensive issues. The Leafs really need to fix their PP is the biggest issue when it comes to the offense. Marner is a part of that of course but it still remains that he is obviously a top 5 forward in the playoffs 5v5.

 

[Confucius]

Yes it's a very small sample size for that stat or any other for that matter. There is a new coach, Matthews was hurt for a while, Marner always plays against the best etc etc. Just look up the longer term or career numbers and will see very clear trends. If you think that Marner has played poorly this season because a few teammates have better +/- then I can't help you anymore.

You’re the one that brought up plus minus. I agree things may change but so far many forwards have better plus minus this season than Marner so according to plus minus they are more valuable so far. It’s one reason I don’t care about plus minus and there is the proof why

 

[666]

You’re the one that brought up plus minus. I agree things may change but so far many forwards have better plus minus this season than Marner so according to plus minus they are more valuable so far. It’s one reason I don’t care about plus minus and there is the proof why

That's not how it works. It takes time for trends to appear then if you want to use stats you can use those trends. It's really that simple.

 

[Zybalto]

Roman Josi was +12 last season.
This year, hes on pace to be around a -65.

 

[Confucius]

Roman Josi was +12 last season.
This year, hes on pace to be around a -65.

Plus minus is a mind numbing stat some of the best players in the league have bad plus minus stats

 

[thusk]

Player A playing 85% of time vs opposite top 6. finishing at +5 against opposite top 6 and +1 bottom 6
vs
player B playing 55% vs top 6. Finishing -5 vs opposite top 6 and +11 vs Bottom 6...

At the end, do you think +/- show really than player A = player B because both finishing at +6???

 

[666]

Plus minus is a mind numbing stat some of the best players in the league have bad plus minus stats

The best stat for this type of comparison is 5v5 GF/60 and GA/60 with a large sample. It allows for uneven ice time due to injuries but requires context. In this case we only have two top right wingers and two top centers so it a reasonable comparison but not perfect.

Last 3 full seasons 5v5:

		GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	205​	1808​	120​	74​	46​	3.98​	2.46​	61.86​
John Tavares	Mitchell Marner	215​	889​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​
Auston Matthews	William Nylander	227​	829​	50​	33​	17​	3.62​	2.39​	60.24​
John Tavares	William Nylander	237​	1559​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​

Matthews and Marner are superstars.
Marner with JT is as good as Nylander with Matthews.
Nylander with JT is a disaster.

 

[DarkKnight]

Can't imagine spending so much time trying to diminish one of our players. Toxic fans.

 

[ToneDog]

Can't imagine spending so much time trying to diminish one of our players. Toxic fans.

As a so called "hater", I do not want to see the team overpay the last amigo a second time. I was in the do not pay Nylander more than $10m camp and they caved to his demand of $11.5m. He's scoring goals but what happened to his playmaking and the 120 point pace he was on when Leafs caved?

For once, I want to see one of these 3 put the team ahead of their wallets. Call us haters but the truth is we put the team ahead Marner's wallet.

 

[Zybalto]

The best stat for this type of comparison is 5v5 GF/60 and GA/60 with a large sample. It allows for uneven ice time due to injuries but requires context. In this case we only have two top right wingers and two top centers so it a reasonable comparison but not perfect.

Last 3 full seasons 5v5:

		GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	205​	1808​	120​	74​	46​	3.98​	2.46​	61.86​
John Tavares	Mitchell Marner	215​	889​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​
Auston Matthews	William Nylander	227​	829​	50​	33​	17​	3.62​	2.39​	60.24​
John Tavares	William Nylander	237​	1559​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​

Matthews and Marner are superstars.
Marner with JT is as good as Nylander with Matthews.
Nylander with JT is a disaster.

Those are fun stats to look at but part of the problem has been finding any sort of half decent LW to play with JT/Nylander. Its why their xGF% and shot differential is waaaay better than the final product. No finish or jam on their LW.

Just give them a Patches/McMann on the LW and poof....they are above 70% this year.

 

[GoonieFace]

As a so called "hater", I do not want to see the team overpay the last amigo a second time. I was in the do not pay Nylander more than $10m camp and they caved to his demand of $11.5m. He's scoring goals but what happened to his playmaking and the 120 point pace he was on when Leafs caved?

For once, I want to see one of these 3 put the team ahead of their wallets. Call us haters but the truth is we put the team ahead Marner's wallet.

To be fair, you can playmake all you want, but if players can’t finish, your assist numbers will suffer.

Nylander was overpaid for sure, but if I’m overpaying, it’s for goal scorers.

 

[ToneDog]

To be fair, you can playmake all you want, but if players can’t finish, your assist numbers will suffer.

Nylander was overpaid for sure, but if I’m overpaying, it’s for goal scorers.

Agreed but Willie was scoring and setting up goals last year. His goal scoring pace has slightly increased compared to last year but his assists have dropped significantly. This time last year, he was in the top 5 in scoring. This year is 24th with 9 of his 15 assists on the PP. Willie is capable of much more.

 

[ACC1224]

Can't imagine spending so much time trying to diminish one of our players. Toxic fans.

That’s why no one’s be pays much attention to them and their whacky takes. Really just looking for attention at this point

 

[666]

Those are fun stats to look at but part of the problem has been finding any sort of half decent LW to play with JT/Nylander. Its why their xGF% and shot differential is waaaay better than the final product. No finish or jam on their LW.

No, if it was the LW then Marner and JT would have the same problem.

 

[thewave]

The best stat for this type of comparison is 5v5 GF/60 and GA/60 with a large sample. It allows for uneven ice time due to injuries but requires context. In this case we only have two top right wingers and two top centers so it a reasonable comparison but not perfect.

Last 3 full seasons 5v5:

		GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	205​	1808​	120​	74​	46​	3.98​	2.46​	61.86​
John Tavares	Mitchell Marner	215​	889​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​
Auston Matthews	William Nylander	227​	829​	50​	33​	17​	3.62​	2.39​	60.24​
John Tavares	William Nylander	237​	1559​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​

Matthews and Marner are superstars.
Marner with JT is as good as Nylander with Matthews.
Nylander with JT is a disaster.

So by playing AM WN and JT MM we would score about the same/60 but also be a better defensive team by a significant amount.

Things that make you go hmmm. Lucky for us in Toranna we don't believe is stupid things like maths

 

[Zybalto]

No, if it was the LW then Marner and JT would have the same problem.

Marner and Nylander are different players that would mesh with different linemates. Its what makes putting together lines so difficult.

If look at the previous 3 years (2018-2021) we get:

Matthews/Marner: 61.88 GF%
JT/Nylander: 57.00 GF%
JT/Marner: 54.60 GF%
Matthews/Nylander: 53.37 GF%

....and if you add up all the numbers for Tavares/Nylander since 2018-2019, you get a 53.6% GF%. Deployment, coaching and goaltending of course (since we are using GF%) all play into this too.

 

[666]

Marner and Nylander are different players that would mesh with different linemates. Its what makes putting together lines so difficult.

If look at the previous 3 years (2018-2021) we get:

Matthews/Marner: 61.88 GF%
JT/Nylander: 57.00 GF%
JT/Marner: 54.60 GF%
Matthews/Nylander: 53.37 GF%

....and if you add up all the numbers for Tavares/Nylander since 2018-2019, you get a 53.6% GF%. Deployment, coaching and goaltending of course (since we are using GF%) all play into this too.

I would avoid the Covid years when discussing these things. But even then 53-57 is pretty close but when they go 46 over three years that's a big problem and it simply points to what the eye test clearly shows and that is that Nylander is bad defensively.

 

[DarkKnight]

As a so called "hater", I do not want to see the team overpay the last amigo a second time. I was in the do not pay Nylander more than $10m camp and they caved to his demand of $11.5m. He's scoring goals but what happened to his playmaking and the 120 point pace he was on when Leafs caved?

For once, I want to see one of these 3 put the team ahead of their wallets. Call us haters but the truth is we put the team ahead Marner's wallet.

I don’t put you in that category bro, you come by your take honestly and argue it rationally.. It’s completely valid to argue they overpay, all of them. I’ve just resigned myself to “all in” with this core, I think this year affords a really good chance to rewrite some narratives.

 

[Zybalto]

I would avoid the Covid years when discussing these things. But even then 53-57 is pretty close but when they go 46 over three years that's a big problem and it simply points to what the eye test clearly shows and that is that Nylander is bad defensively.

Oh, Im not dismissing the fact that Nylander is poor defensively.

In the playoffs the last 3 years we get:

Matthews/Marner: 63.13 GF%
JT/Marner: 56.44 GF%
Matthews/Nylander: 51.35 GF%
JT/Nylander: 42.90 GF%

The fact we have had Campbell and Samsonov in net for the last 3 years, both regular and playoffs, throws a wrench i trying to understand all this too of course but I think it only underscores that Marner is elite defensively and takes it to another level in the playoffs.

 

[Confucius]

Can't imagine spending so much time trying to diminish one of our players. Toxic fans.

It’s just business, lol

 

[DarkKnight]

Oh, Im not dismissing the fact that Nylander is poor defensively.

In the playoffs the last 3 years we get:

Matthews/Marner: 63.13 GF%
JT/Marner: 56.44 GF%
Matthews/Nylander: 51.35 GF%
JT/Nylander: 42.90 GF%

The fact we have had Campbell and Samsonov in net for the last 3 years, both regular and playoffs, throws a wrench i trying to understand all this too of course but I think it only underscores that Marner is elite defensively and takes it to another level in the playoffs.

Matchups are hard to factor in as well. Opposing teams zero in on the top line with their best, and with the defensive considerations, zone starts as well play a role too.

 

[therealkoho]

That's fine. They are still doing a poor job at growing the game from the grassroots level. Gambling is the quick fix, that hit they just needed to get going. Now everyone is constantly complaining about officiating. Sure there was BS always, now?? It's hilarious

I think its more a case of people are finally opening their eyes, Andy Van Hellemond was a total sleazebag he took money from probably everyone and I'm pretty sure eventually went to jail.

They used to praise the guy like he was some kind of messiah. Ask any Bruins fan old enough to remember the wars with Montreal in the 70s. I'm in no way a fan of the Bruins, but van Hellemonds calls were so blatantly one sided and ticky tacky there was no way any visitor could win a game at the Forum that he was doing.

Montreal was good, no doubt but when Andy was doing games 1,3,5 and 7 they were invincible.