The Loss of Broberg and Holloway Gripe Thread

[Bryanbryoil]

You're a pretty remarkable critic of Drai who has been producing fine with or without McD. Those stats are frequently posted but you'll ignore them everytime in your made up view that Drai is simply McD dependant. Drai even put some monster games together this season and other seasons when McD wasn't even dressed (injured)

Its weird too that you're saying all this in a year in Which Drai is leading the team in scoring by a mile and is tied with McD in pts. Heres something. How reliant is McD on Drai for pts this season. Bigger question is why McD and Drai are involved in around 68% of the team production. Solve that problem and we've got a contender. The whole team is reliant on McDrai.

Heres your logic mechanism. Pods doesn't score an NHL goal for 45 straight games until he bagged a few with Drai. Its Drais fault. lol. This is basically what you're saying. Drai needs to do better. lol


Kesselring always looked good to me. But like JJ is saying the org wasn't properly evaluating its own talent. Its like people said for years it didn't matter how good a prospect was in preseason they weren't making the team. They'd just get sent down and in many cases never seen again.

That is a good way to make vets content instead of hungry and a good way to alienate prospects.

 

[McDNicks17]

Not to poo poo the victory laps from last nights game. But that was Brobergs literal worst game of the year we saw.

I guess you didn't watch the Blues/Flames game.

 

[TheNumber4]

I guess you didn't watch the Blues/Flames game.

Egregious giveaways that game too?

 

[McDNicks17]

Egregious giveaways that game too?

A few less giveaways, but he got hemmed basically every shift he played.

He's been getting caved since coming back from injury. Funnily enough, last night's game was his lowest xGA of the four games he's played.

 

[TheNumber4]

A few less giveaways, but he got hemmed basically every shift he played.

He's been getting caved since coming back from injury. Funnily enough, last night's game was his lowest xGA of the four games he's played.

Well personally I hope his game tanks and keeps tanking. But realistically I think the Blues got a top 4 D they’ll be happy for for years.

 

[McDNicks17]

Well personally I hope his game tanks and keeps tanking. But realistically I think the Blues got a top 4 D they’ll be happy for for years.

Realistically, it will likely tank a bit. He has the worst elite comp numbers in the Blues top4 that's being propped up by a 1146 PDO(and no that's not a typo).

They seem to be upping his role and that'll catch up to him. You can only have a 2023/24 Canucks shooting percentage and a 100% save percentage for so long.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Leading an NHL team in scoring? Let's wait and see. Your prediction is mighty bold.

I never said it would end up the case. But with 9 goals he is now. Really its amazing he is outscoring everybody here but McDrai.

 

[TheNumber4]

Realistically, it will likely tank a bit. He has the worst elite comp numbers in the Blues top4 that's being propped up by a 1146 PDO(and no that's not a typo).

They seem to be upping his role and that'll catch up to him. You can only have a 2023/24 Canucks shooting percentage and a 100% save percentage for so long.

They probably shouldn’t be top pairing him at this point. But he’ll be good slotted in the 3 hole.

 

[Soundwave]

Sample size really does matter. But it is also not as simple as better linemates more points for everyone.

I have posted about this before. Players like McDavid and Leon command the puck. Players that may on one line be the drivers can become complementary players when paired with a dominant star. The line may score more but their share may drop. Playing on the third or fourth line Holloway could have had the puck a lot more than when playing up the line-up. The question becomes does a player get more points on a line that scores more but where they touch the puck less or on a line the scores less but they are the primary play driver. The reality is that there is no unique answer to this question.

The problem is it's pretty difficult to build around players who are that finnicky about who they play with.

It's not like there's a store where you can pick up free Zack Hymans, the revolving door of guys who get looks on the 2nd line and either don't produce or do produce for a short time and then fizzle out is not good.

We're lucky to have both of these guys, of course, don't get me wrong, but if no one coming in here is going to work on the 2nd line, that's quite a problem. Yes, you can play McDavid and Draisaitl together for large chunks of games, and yes you will get offense that way, but it's hard to be as balanced as teams like the championship Penguins if you don't have a reliable second line the way Malkin was able to drive offense without Crosby on the ice. We almost won a Cup anyway, but the other way would be more ideal.

Like what are we supposed to do in the future? Just play McDrai together for large chunks of games for next several years? Who is on the horizon and/or likely to be available that we can pick up and have work here?

Maybe the idea of locking everyone but the same 5 guys out of PP time is also not a great strategy for making players feel involved in the team offense either.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Holloway didn't look any better than Podz here, why don't we wait and see how Podkolzin fits as he gets more comfortable here.

Like Nichushkin for the Avs this could be a long term play for the Oilers, I see a player there for sure, outstanding strength and good hockey IQ, just needs to relax and get a better understanding of where his goals will come from.



I mean Yamamoto and Puljujarvi got like 2039484848 looks here and even had some productive periods before ultimately flaming out.

Holloway didn't play as much time in the top 6 as Podz, and it's obvious now that he is in St Louis, he looks better with lesser talent

 

[Soundwave]

Holloway didn't play as much time in the top 6 as Podz, and it's obvious now that he is in St Louis, he looks better with lesser talent

Well I think that is more of a product of the Oilers realizing they need to nurture some of their players moreso, Podkolzin is trending a lot like Nichushkin, Nichushkin had a huge scoring drought with Dallas, his confidence shattered and then it took a while for him to start scoring in Colorado too.

The problem for us is almost no one looks good on that 2nd line or if they do it's fleeting and then they go through a big slump and have to be removed from there.

In the sample size given last it's hard to say there was any kind of exceptional chemistry with Draisaitl and Holloway. If they had shown something he almost definitely would have been retained.

Guys like Drake Caggiula also put up similar/better scoring numbers in the playoffs, 5 goals in four playoff rounds isn't exactly great (Foegele and McLeod were even worse in the playoffs).

 

[Spawn]

Hate to say it, but either Leon has terrible luck or something is wrong.

Foegele/McLeod leave here and score more without Draisaitl than they did here with him.

What?

Did you read Fouriers post earlier in the thread? Foegele and McLeod both scored at much better rates with Draisaitl than they have this year.

McLeod in Buffalo: 1.68 pts/60 5 vs 5
McLeod with McDavid last year: 3.64 pts/60 5 vs 5
McLeod with Draisaitl last year: 3.54 pts/60 5 vs 5

Foegele in LA: 2.4 pts/60 5 vs 5
Foegele with McDavid last year: 2.35 pts.60
Foegele with Draisaitl last year: 2.94 pts.60

As far Holloway, he barely played with Leon last season. Podkolzin has gotten nearly 4x the amount of time with Draisaitl so far than Holloway had last season in 10 more games.

The hopes that Podkolzin is going to magically turn into the next Nichushkin is as delusional as the hopes that a certain portion of posters here had that Puljujarvi would be that guy.

 

[guymez]

Holloway looked pretty good in last nights game. Its clear that Podkolzin isnt a replacement as he just isnt nearly as dynamic as Holloway. He just doesnt have the offensive upside that Holloway has.
Podkolzin really isnt a full time top 6 player either....Holloway clearly is.
That said Podkolzin should be a solid 3rd line player who can sub into the top 6 part time like he is doing now.

 

[Soundwave]

The irony of people who are upset we wrote off a couple of young players who didn't really (in all honesty) have eye opening stats here to then go shit on Podkolzin, as if he's a finished product is hilarious.

You can't cry about young players this and that, and then have no patience with the current crop of young players that are here.

And go look up how many games it took for Nichushkin to get scoring in Colorado and how bad his offense was in his last 50+ games in Dallas.

Holloway didn't get to play with Leon much last year because they weren't anything special when paired together.

The team is trying a different approach with Podkolzin, and still people then complain that they don't like that either.

 

[Fourier]

The problem is it's pretty difficult to build around players who are that finnicky about who they play with.

It's not like there's a store where you can pick up free Zack Hymans, the revolving door of guys who get looks on the 2nd line and either don't produce or do produce for a short time and then fizzle out is not good.

We're lucky to have both of these guys, of course, don't get me wrong, but if no one coming in here is going to work on the 2nd line, that's quite a problem. Yes, you can play McDavid and Draisaitl together for large chunks of games, and yes you will get offense that way, but it's hard to be as balanced as teams like the championship Penguins if you don't have a reliable second line the way Malkin was able to drive offense without Crosby on the ice. We almost won a Cup anyway, but the other way would be more ideal.

Like what are we supposed to do in the future? Just play McDrai together for large chunks of games for next several years? Who is on the horizon and/or likely to be available that we can pick up and have work here?

Maybe the idea of locking everyone but the same 5 guys out of PP time is also not a great strategy for making players feel involved in the team offense either.

I did not say that either player was finnicky. Both players are as capable of raising the game of their linemates as pretty much any stars I have watched over my lifetime. But it has always been the case that it is not easy to play with great players and succeed individually. Playing with a guy like McDavid requires you to do certain things at speed that you may not be comfortable with. Crosby is kind of the opposite. He is at heart a grinder and his game suits certain types of players that fit that style.

You need to focus on what really matters and that is the success of the team. Sometimes a pairing can turn one player into a complementary player but the impact on the team is still positive. A while back I posted about Nuge with McDavid. Nuge's IPP away form star players is generally over 70% often in the 75%+ range. With McDavid over three years it was 55% and in some years was under 50%. Yet if you look at what happens on the ice you see that if you pair Nuge with either McDavid or with Leon but not the other the teams GF% rises as opposed to the player by themselves.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

That means the team is more successful even if Nuge's tendency to play more passive impacts his own numbers to a degree.


Now lets look specifically at the bolded claim: Here is the data 5 vs 5 for the Penguins in the three years from 2015-2016 through 2017-2018.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/li...ict=incl&p1=8471675&p2=8471215&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

With Crosby on the ice but not Malkin the Pens scored at a rate of 2.92 g/60 and with Malkin but not Crosby it was 3.09. With neither on it was 2.10 g/60. The GF% were respectively 55.31, 56.00 and 48.76.

When both were together in 58 minutes the Pens did not score. Malkin and Crosby don't work together 5 vs 5. They never have. Their games are just too different. Malkin plays like Draisaitl does when he is away from McDavid.

Here are the numbers for McDavid and Draisaitl over the last three years:

With Connor but not Leon ----- 3.43 g/60 GF% 57.85
With Leon but not Connor ------3.08 g/60 GF% 52.63
With neither on the ice --------- 2.26 g/60 GF% 48.64

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Now together that number jumps to 4.25 g/60 which is insane. It works because Draisaitl has adapted his game when playing with McDavid to be an almost perfect complement, just as Kurri did playing with Gretzky. This is why I think people underrate Leon. They think he is a product of McDavid but in reality it is his incredible ability to morph his game to fit McDavid that makes the pair together so dynamic.

In the end, I don't see any evidence supporting the assertion that the Penguin combination was better driving offense apart, in fact it is probably the opposite. The GF% with Malkin on the ice but not Crosby was a bit higher than Leon without McDavid but during that period Draisaitl did not really have any steady linemate, while Malkin had Kessel and when those two played together the GF% was 58.78. Leon had a lot of his time over that period playing with guys like Yamamoto.

 

[Soundwave]

I did not say that either player was finnicky. Both players are as capable of raising the game of their linemates as pretty much any stars I have watched over my lifetime. But it has always been the case that it is not easy to play with great players and succeed individually. Playing with a guy like McDavid requires you to do certain things at speed that you may not be comfortable with. Crosby is kind of the opposite. He is at heart a grinder and his game suits certain types of players that fit that style.

You need to focus on what really matters and that is the success of the team. Sometimes a pairing can turn one player into a complementary player but the impact on the team is still positive. A while back I posted about Nuge with McDavid. Nuge's IPP away form star players is generally over 70% often in the 75%+ range. With McDavid over three years it was 55% and in some years was under 50%. Yet if you look at what happens on the ice you see that if you pair Nuge with either McDavid or with Leon but not the other the teams GF% rises as opposed to the player by themselves.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

That means the team is more successful even if Nuge's tendency to play more passive impacts his own numbers to a degree.


Now lets look specifically at the bolded claim: Here is the data 5 vs 5 for the Penguins in the three years from 2015-2016 through 2017-2018.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/li...ict=incl&p1=8471675&p2=8471215&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

With Crosby on the ice but not Malkin the Pens scored at a rate of 2.92 g/60 and with Malkin but not Crosby it was 3.09. With neither on it was 2.10 g/60. The GF% were respectively 55.31, 56.00 and 48.76.

When both were together in 58 minutes the Pens did not score. Malkin and Crosby don't work together 5 vs 5. They never have. Their games are just too different. Malkin plays like Draisaitl does when he is away from McDavid.

Here are the numbers for McDavid and Draisaitl over the last three years:

With Connor but not Leon ----- 3.43 g/60 GF% 57.85
With Leon but not Connor ------3.08 g/60 GF% 52.63
With neither on the ice --------- 2.26 g/60 GF% 48.64

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Now together that number jumps to 4.25 g/60 which is insane. It works because Draisaitl has adapted his game when playing with McDavid to be an almost perfect complement, just as Kurri did playing with Gretzky. This is why I think people underrate Leon. They think he is a product of McDavid but in reality it is his incredible ability to morph his game to fit McDavid that makes the pair together so dynamic.

In the end, I don't see any evidence supporting the assertion that the Penguin combination was better driving offense apart, in fact it is probably the opposite. The GF% with Malkin on the ice but not Crosby was a bit higher than Leon without McDavid but during that period Draisaitl did not really have any steady linemate, while Malkin had Kessel and when those two played together the GF% was 58.78. Leon had a lot of his time over that period playing with guys like Yamamoto.

Look at the percentage of Malkin's offense without Crosby it's like 80% or thereabouts, that's a huge amount of offense that doesn't involve Crosby.

 

[Fourier]

Look at the percentage of Malkin's offense without Crosby it's like 80% or thereabouts, that's a huge amount of offense that doesn't involve Crosby.

They don't play well together. They never have. But what does that matter in terms of your claim? You were essentially claiming that Pittsburgh generated more offense having those two separated than the Oilers do when their guys are separate and that when they are together the combined offense suffers. The numbers show that this is not the case.

Now one could argue that when they are together the second line is not as good. That is true but the reality is that the team still scores at a higher rate in that scenario than Pittsburgh did in good part because together they are so deadly. Over the last three years with Nuge on the ice but neither of the other two (this is a proxy for the second line) the team scored at a rate of 2.62 g/60, .3 g/60 less than Crosby's rate but with the two together it was 4.28 g/60. So while the second line gives up some ground to Crosby and Malkin when McDavid and Draisaitl play together the net gain from those two more than compensates for this.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The irony of people who are upset we wrote off a couple of young players who didn't really (in all honesty) have eye opening stats here to then go shit on Podkolzin, as if he's a finished product is hilarious.

You can't cry about young players this and that, and then have no patience with the current crop of young players that are here.

And go look up how many games it took for Nichushkin to get scoring in Colorado and how bad his offense was in his last 50+ games in Dallas.

Holloway didn't get to play with Leon much last year because they weren't anything special when paired together.

The team is trying a different approach with Podkolzin, and still people then complain that they don't like that either.

Nobody else exists in the delusion that Podkolzin=Nikushkin.

What "current crop of young players" that are here? The org gave em all away. I count Podkolzin and Emberson.

The irony of your posts is you've spent the last 50 posts telling us how nothing any of Foegele, McLeod, Holloway were in your opinion. So apparently your message is not to have the approach you have with our legit prospects.

 

[Drivesaitl]

They don't play well together. They never have. But what does that matter in terms of your claim? You were essentially claiming that Pittsburgh generated more offense having those two separated than the Oilers do when their guys are separate and that when they are together the combined offense suffers. The numbers show that this is not the case.

Now one could argue that when they are together the second line is not as good. That is true but the reality is that the team still scores at a higher rate in that scenario than Pittsburgh did in good part because together they are so deadly. Over the last three years with Nuge on the ice but neither of the other two (this is a proxy for the second line) the team scored at a rate of 2.62 g/60, .3 g/60 less than Crosby's rate but with the two together it was 4.28 g/60. So while the second line gives up some ground to Crosby and Malkin when McDavid and Draisaitl play together the net gain from those two more than compensates for this.

If I can mention that Crosby and Malkin have also had the PMD offensive D Letang there the whole time. McDrai haven't had a D that is around PPG until Booch popped up. Makes a big difference in offense. Booch is the first offense gamebreaker D McDrai have had. Until Ekholm it could be said the Oilers haven't had any stud D the whole time. Offense often starts with the defense. This was demonstrated indelibly in the Pronger year where several players had 20pt appreciation in seasonal stats. Several having their career best production year that year, because of a superstar D like Pronger. Players in Tampa, Dallas, Colorado, etc. They always have that generational D starting plays.

 

[Soundwave]

Nobody else exists in the delusion that Podkolzin=Nikushkin.

What "current crop of young players" that are here? The org gave em all away. I count Podkolzin and Emberson.

The irony of your posts is you've spent the last 50 posts telling us how nothing any of Foegele, McLeod, Holloway were in your opinion. So apparently your message is not to have the approach you have with our legit prospects.

You'd be yelling at Nichushkin as a bust too if he had come here in similar circustances and then took 20+ games to score a single goal and had 3 total by game 27 after 57 games of 0 goals in Dallas on top of that. And then saying you know for 100% sure this player will be nothing but a bottom 6 player at best because you've seen everything you need to see.

And then after when he breaks out you'd be like "oh yeah, guess I was wrong on that one, whooopsie doooo!".

They don't play well together. They never have. But what does that matter in terms of your claim? You were essentially claiming that Pittsburgh generated more offense having those two separated than the Oilers do when their guys are separate and that when they are together the combined offense suffers. The numbers show that this is not the case.

Now one could argue that when they are together the second line is not as good. That is true but the reality is that the team still scores at a higher rate in that scenario than Pittsburgh did in good part because together they are so deadly. Over the last three years with Nuge on the ice but neither of the other two (this is a proxy for the second line) the team scored at a rate of 2.62 g/60, .3 g/60 less than Crosby's rate but with the two together it was 4.28 g/60. So while the second line gives up some ground to Crosby and Malkin when McDavid and Draisaitl play together the net gain from those two more than compensates for this.

You don't want them playing together is the point. They're both centers, it's far more ideal that they drive offense on their respective lines, if Malkin and Crosby needed each other for 60%+ of their offense to the detriment of having no steady 2nd line (as is the case here), that's not a good thing.

We don't have a reliable 2nd line, we've never had one in the last 10 years really outside of short spurts that fizzle out. I mean shit even Phil Kessel was able to drive offense on a line on his own, Pittsburgh was shredding teams with that setup, hard to combat 3 lines that can all kill you. It's no wonder they cruised to a dominating Cup win even with no Letang, no problem.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You'd be yelling at Nichushkin as a bust too if he had come here in similar circustances and then took 20+ games to score a single goal and had 3 total by game 27 after 57 games of 0 goals in Dallas on top of that. And then saying you know for 100% sure this player will be nothing but a bottom 6 player at best because you've seen everything you need to see.

And then after when he breaks out you'd be like "oh yeah, guess I was wrong on that one, whooopsie doooo!".

Your synopsis on this is speculation. But what you have ACTUALLY been doing, is saying that our prospects were nothing, and that losing them is nothing. you're actually trying to argue that Pods>Holloway and you're on an island of one doing that.

I'm OK with Pods for now, he shouldn't be in topsix, and I quite like Emberson. Really one could make a better argument that Emberson is a Broberg replacement for now than Pods being a Holloway replacement.

Which Oilers prospects am I wrong on? I'll wait for your answer. If anything other than yamamoto and useless Benson I'm usually positive about our prospects.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You'd be yelling at Nichushkin as a bust too if he had come here in similar circustances and then took 20+ games to score a single goal and had 3 total by game 27 after 57 games of 0 goals in Dallas on top of that. And then saying you know for 100% sure this player will be nothing but a bottom 6 player at best because you've seen everything you need to see.

And then after when he breaks out you'd be like "oh yeah, guess I was wrong on that one, whooopsie doooo!".



You don't want them playing together is the point. They're both centers, it's far more ideal that they drive offense on their respective lines, if Malkin and Crosby needed each other for 60%+ of their offense to the detriment of having no steady 2nd line (as is the case here), that's not a good thing.

We don't have a reliable 2nd line, we've never had one in the last 10 years really outside of short spurts that fizzle out. I mean shit even Phil Kessel was able to drive offense on a line on his own, Pittsburgh was shredding teams with that setup, hard to combat 3 lines that can all kill you. It's no wonder they cruised to a dominating Cup win even with no Letang, no problem.

Fourier has spent several posts trying to clarify for you and using data and you're still saying "Why do McDrai need each other" when theres every indication that they don't and that they are owning NHL with or without, and its just that when they are together its a superpower cheatcode going to levels of scoring per minute that look like PP, while playing EV.

Meant this to be contained in one reply.

 

[Soundwave]

Fourier has spent several posts trying to clarify for you and using data and you're still saying "Why do McDrai need each other" when theres every indication that they don't and that they are owning NHL with or without, and its just that when they are together its a superpower cheatcode going to levels of scoring per minute that look like PP, while playing EV.

Over 60%+ of their offence coming together shows they do score the majority of their points together, people who want to characterize this setup as like Crosby/Malkin or something are just wrong. Ideally it would be that, but that's not what we get.

We don't have a 2nd line that's reliable at 5 on 5 scoring and we haven't that basically the entire McDavid era. A few stretches here and there and then the line falling apart doesn't count.

It's fair after a while to ask what is going on when it's the same story every season even with different players because most other Cup winners/contenders have at least two stable scoring lines.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Over 60%+ of their offence coming together shows they do score the majority of their points together, people who want to characterize this setup as like Crosby/Malkin or something are just wrong. Ideally it would be that, but that's not what we get.

We don't have a 2nd line that's reliable at 5 on 5 scoring and we haven't that basically the entire McDavid era. A few stretches here and there and then the line falling apart doesn't count.

It's fair after a while to ask what is going on when it's the same story every season even with different players because most other Cup winners/contenders have at least two stable scoring lines.

The Oilers would have that too, and did but for years were busy ridding themselves of players like Eberle or Hall. Hall was working very well with Drai when they were together. I thought Strome could be good too, team was impatient with that and traded an actual player for lol all day Ryan Spooner.

You go to extreme lengths to say Drai gets nothing without McD but the Wowy stats are showing you to be wrong. You can be more wrong I guess in several more posts.

 

[Soundwave]

The Oilers would have that too, and did but for years were busy ridding themselves of players like Eberle or Hall. Hall was working very well with Drai when they were together. I thought Strome could be good too, team was impatient with that and traded an actual player for lol all day Ryan Spooner.

You go to extreme lengths to say Drai gets nothing without McD but the Wowy stats are showing you to be wrong. You can be more wrong I guess in several more posts.

The result on the ice says we don't have a reliable 2nd line. Are we just supposed to pretend that hasn't been the case for like 10 years?

The stats bear it out too, it's not that hard to look at scoring logs and see they're on the ice together for about 63% of their offense this year.

That may be good for them, but it's not really ideal for a Cup contender, it would be far more ideal if their offense was more like 70-80% apart as it is for Crosby/Malkin, because it's harder to defend a team with two scoring lines instead of our setup.