Blue Jays Discussion: The long, slow march of a winter off-season

[hockeywiz542]

Despite few options, Atkins confident he can improve Blue Jays rotation - TSN.ca

Here’s the thing.

The top of the market is Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg.

No chance.

The next tier was/is Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Madison Bumgarner.

Still likely no chance, even if Ryu is a pitcher they’ve touched base with.

After that, it’s the tier most expected the Blue Jays to be in play for, with Michael Pineda, who sources say has been a target, Dallas Keuchel, Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark and Julio Teheran being the most realistic options from here on out.

There’s a league-wide search for pitching that goes on 365 days a year.

This winter is no different.

With an obvious need atop the rotation — even with Nate Pearson on the verge of joining the big club, likely in June or July as the Jays’ top prospect will have to deal with a 130-to-140 innings limit in 2020 — the Atkins-led front office has left no stone unturned, but as of yet they’ve been unwilling to go the extra mile to secure the services of anyone who matters, aka the extra year or handful of millions.

Atkins maintains that’s a competitive window decision rather than Rogers ownership limiting them in any sort of way.

“The flexibility has been there and it’s always a combination of how much revenue you’re creating and now we’re in a situation where it just makes sense to start to be a lot more aggressive than we were last year,” Atkins said.

If they strike out on the top options this winter, it only makes the work tougher in the winter of 2020 and beyond … if this front office is allowed to get to that point.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[The Nemesis]

Julio Teheran - anyone see a fit with the Jays? I wouldn't mind seeing what he has left in him. At worst, nothing. At best, he would at least not be reaching middle-aged-man status when we have a chance to contend.

If he gets a cheap "prove it" type deal? Sure. Why not. Nothing wrong with inexpensive lottery tickets.

But on the whole I don't see it. His velocity is cratering in a hurry and he no longer has meaningful separation between his FB and change. His walk rate is creeping up to troubling levels given that he doesn't have an offsettingly high K rate. And it appears that his breaking stuff is becoming less effective (either on its own merit or because the degrading fastball allows hitters to focus more on it). And just to top it off it's been 4 years since he logged 200 innings.

So you're not getting an innings eater, or a guy with dynamic current stuff, or looking to bounce back after an uncharacteristic bad year. he has the hallmarks of a guy that's cooked and is just riding out his rapid late-career decline to irrelevancy. Which, given that he's "only" just shy of 29, feels rather early-onset. I'm not saying there are rumors out there or anything, but it wouldn't shock me if we had a Fausto Carmona situation on our hands and it turns out he's a few years older than he claims.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Despite few options, Atkins confident he can improve Blue Jays rotation - TSN.ca

I don't quite understand the "few options" take. Also, his tier breakdown is...interesting.

Tier 1 (like a regular dude trying to ask out Kate Upton): Cole (Yankees/West coast), Strasburg (Nationals/Yankees)

Tier 2 (non-ace with potential to blow up..in more ways than one): Wheeler (PHI)

Tier 3 (collection of #3/4 starters that sadly project as your ace because you have no pitching): Gibson (TEX), Ryu, Keuchel, Odorizzi (MIN, Q), Bumgarner, Hamels (ATL), Pineda (*)

Tier 4 (useful, limited, better than what you have): Rich Hill, Porcello, Perez, Gausman, Bailey, Waino (STL), Wood, B. Anderson, Roark, Lyles, Gio, Miley

Tier 5 (still useful, yet limited by several factors; better than what you have): Nova, Cashner, Wacha, McHugh, Vargas, Buchholz, Moore, Smyly, Richard, T. Walker, Teheran, A. Sanchez

Tier 6 (trash, but hilariously better than what you currently have): Milone, Holland, Volquez, Ross, Harvey, Cahill, Eikhoff

There is a remarkable amount of options to fill out the rotation. And for a franchise with a significant amount of resources this offseason, its a bit annoying to even see such a hedgy article. Either you're doing your job or you're not. And to even begin referencing a rotation featuring a guy who can't get RHH out, another guy who blew out his leg last year, a kid who's likely better suited to be a reliever, and another kid with elbow problems is asinine.

Further, I have no idea what any of this has to do with ownership. The payroll, as it stands today, is so far below where it was less than three years ago that they'd have to sign several large free agent contracts to even enter the realm of "competitive window" and "limitations on payroll" talk.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Oh Marcus

 

[kb]

Oh Marcus

Yeah, just shut the ol piehole Marcus.....and take your own advice, you self-centred piece of.......

 

[Anthrax442]

I miss him

 

[theaub]

Further, I have no idea what any of this has to do with ownership. The payroll, as it stands today, is so far below where it was less than three years ago that they'd have to sign several large free agent contracts to even enter the realm of "competitive window" and "limitations on payroll" talk.

Yeah basically this. Not that Sportrac is 100% accurate but is this really the group we're trying to be amongst?

My understanding of having a bunch of young talented cost-controlled players was that we're supposed to use those "savings" to buy talent and accelerate the contention window, not spend less money than Tampa Bay while letting our pre-arb years for Vlad/Bo/Cavan go to waste on 70 win teams.

 

[Discoverer]

Yeah basically this. Not that Sportrac is 100% accurate but is this really the group we're trying to be amongst?

View attachment 286719

My understanding of having a bunch of young talented cost-controlled players was that we're supposed to use those "savings" to buy talent and accelerate the contention window, not spend less money than Tampa Bay while letting our pre-arb years for Vlad/Bo/Cavan go to waste on 70 win teams.

I mean... they're not going to be anywhere near Tampa Bay by opening day.

 

[trellaine201]

Oh no Houston tonight.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Yeah basically this. Not that Sportrac is 100% accurate but is this really the group we're trying to be amongst?

View attachment 286719

My understanding of having a bunch of young talented cost-controlled players was that we're supposed to use those "savings" to buy talent and accelerate the contention window, not spend less money than Tampa Bay while letting our pre-arb years for Vlad/Bo/Cavan go to waste on 70 win teams.

What's hilarious is...every team on that list is receiving a competitive balance pick (bottom 10 in terms of market size\revenue) except for the CWS and the Blue Jays. There is literally no justification for a bottom ten payroll with a market this size...ever.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Atkins On Blue Jays' Offseason Approach

What of the top options available? “There’s not a free agent that we haven’t touched base with,” he said. It’s tough to see the Toronto organization as a serious player for any of this winter’s super-premium free agents, but Atkins certainly suggested that the front office has at least seen cause to check in on all the possibilities. Whether or not it’ll happen is far from clear — the guess here is it won’t — -but Atkins says the Blue Jays have the capacity to go into nine-figure territory for the right player.

If I got to my boss and say: "I talk to clients all the time. I haven't won any mandates and haven't closed a deal, but I'm touching base" I'd be fired shortly thereafter.

Do your damn job. Failure is not something to talk about with some sort of odd pride.

 

[theaub]

I mean... they're not going to be anywhere near Tampa Bay by opening day.

Probably, because they'll go out and make a couple of Jaime Garcia signings instead of actually trying to sign someone who has more than a modicum of a chance of contributing to a contending team.

And then some will commend them like its great cost management to spend $10M on a guy who has a 20% chance of bringing back a 45 FV prospect at the deadline.

 

[BlueForever75]

Atkins and Shapiro have to stop all the talk about being players and actually sign or trade for some.

It will be a disappointing off season if once again we are basement bargain shopping!!!

We have the kids to develop at the MLB level and now is the time to shell out dollars to surround them with quality veteran players that will give them a chance to succeed and give the team some success. Last thing that this organization should do is stand pat and let them keep losing as they have been. The kids need to be a part of a winner so we can see a shift in the culture and promise of getting better in the future.

As this team is currently constructed, even with some low level signings....we will once again float around the 100 loss mark. And that doesn't bode well in the development of our kids.

 

[Puckstuff]

Ryu, shoemaker and a bat and I’ll be happy common shatkins

 

[GoonieFace]

You can't sign guys if they don't want to come here. Its a 2-way street, and signing big name free agents in Toronto has never been easy. Hopefully they get creative and bring in some guys via trade. Offseason is still young.

 

[BlueForever75]

You can't sign guys if they don't want to come here. Its a 2-way street, and signing big name free agents in Toronto has never been easy. Hopefully they get creative and bring in some guys via trade. Offseason is still young.

Its easy to attract free agents, it simply means the Jays and ownership has to spend more on specific free agents then other teams do to sway them to come to Toronto. In the end every free agent is after one thing and that is money.

For example Wheeler got 5yrs for 118 million from the Phillies. Did he sign there cause its hot? NOT. Did he sign there cause their chances of winning a title are better then the Atlanta or Washington in that division? NOT because some can argue that those teams still have the leg up on the Phillies!!!! Was it because of the superstar on their team in Harper? NOT because many teams have players at his level or close to it or will be one day. He signed there cause of the dollars. So if the Jays offered him 5 years at 130 million would he sign with Toronto? I tell you yes, it only takes ownership and leadership having the set of balls to do it.

If ownership doesn't know already then something is wrong. The Jays have always had to pay a premium to sway free agents to come here. It happened with Dave Stewart, Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, Jack Morris, Roger Clemens, AJ Burnett, Ryan and Martin. If you pay the premium they will come.

For some reason ownership and leadership are just too dumb to realize that. Pay the Keuchel and Ryu types left on the market 2 million more a season and they will come. Its only money, and the organization will make it 10 fold back if they are contending and a winning club. I never understood how they don't understand this concept. Blue Jays fill stadiums with a winner. Put a winner on the field and spend the money. Lose and you will lose money.

 

[Amadeus]

Ryu, shoemaker and a bat and I’ll be happy common shatkins

Pitching wise, that's not enough.

We need at least 2 if not 3 starters for depth.

Ryu, Miley, Roarke, Kuechel, Wood

2 of those at the very least.

 

[BlueForever75]

Pitching wise, that's not enough.

We need at least 2 if not 3 starters for depth.

Ryu, Miley, Roarke, Kuechel, Wood

2 of those at the very least.

I agree. We need at least 2 more pitchers from the list mentioned above. I would add Teharan and Pineda to that list. A bat at 1B and a starting OF with consistent pop, speed and OBP. Once we get those we can then legitimately start talking about a successful off season.

Pitching is self explanatory, spend money and bring it in. As for the OF and 1B. The Jays should get creative. I would look into getting a player like Villar to come in to play 2B, and move Biggio to OF. Slide Grichuk to CF and flank him with Gurriel and Biggio. As for 1B, I would definitely start to groom Hernandez as a 1B. He has the power, but is versatile in giving you multiple positions he can play. 1B, all OF positions and DH. Can he become more selective at the plate, definitely. But I would rather have him at 1B then Tellez at this point. Doesn't clog the bases, brings versatility, and would hate to give up on him and his power so soon. I still think out of any of the OFers he has the most upside over Fisher, Gurriel, McKinney and anyone else in our organization.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

You can't sign guys if they don't want to come here. Its a 2-way street, and signing big name free agents in Toronto has never been easy. Hopefully they get creative and bring in some guys via trade. Offseason is still young.

While I don't fully disagree, I think the "guys don't want to come to Toronto" excuse that the media helped peddle in the 2000's for Riccardi, and later Alex, is largely BS.

If you're paying, they're coming. And I don't want to hear a damn thing about taxes or weather because if that was weighed that heavily, dudes wouldn't sign in New York, Boston, Washington or Minnesota.

 

[Amadeus]

Wouldnt mind bringing back Sanchez as a strictly bull pen arm post his recovery.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Wouldnt mind bringing back Sanchez as a strictly bull pen arm post his recovery.

That bridge is burned.

 

[Sens]

Its easy to attract free agents, it simply means the Jays and ownership has to spend more on specific free agents then other teams do to sway them to come to Toronto. In the end every free agent is after one thing and that is money.

For example Wheeler got 5yrs for 118 million from the Phillies. Did he sign there cause its hot? NOT. Did he sign there cause their chances of winning a title are better then the Atlanta or Washington in that division? NOT because some can argue that those teams still have the leg up on the Phillies!!!! Was it because of the superstar on their team in Harper? NOT because many teams have players at his level or close to it or will be one day. He signed there cause of the dollars. So if the Jays offered him 5 years at 130 million would he sign with Toronto? I tell you yes, it only takes ownership and leadership having the set of balls to do it.

If ownership doesn't know already then something is wrong. The Jays have always had to pay a premium to sway free agents to come here. It happened with Dave Stewart, Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, Jack Morris, Roger Clemens, AJ Burnett, Ryan and Martin. If you pay the premium they will come.

For some reason ownership and leadership are just too dumb to realize that. Pay the Keuchel and Ryu types left on the market 2 million more a season and they will come. Its only money, and the organization will make it 10 fold back if they are contending and a winning club. I never understood how they don't understand this concept. Blue Jays fill stadiums with a winner. Put a winner on the field and spend the money. Lose and you will lose money.

If they gave Wheeler 130 million I would have been complaining about wasting money

 

[Discoverer]

So if the Jays offered him 5 years at 130 million would he sign with Toronto? I tell you yes, it only takes ownership and leadership having the set of balls to do it.

We already know the White Sox made an offer for $120+ million and he turned it down due primarily to location, so I don't know why you would make such a definitive statement.

 

[Lightsol]

What's hilarious is...every team on that list is receiving a competitive balance pick (bottom 10 in terms of market size\revenue) except for the CWS and the Blue Jays. There is literally no justification for a bottom ten payroll with a market this size...ever.

How in the f*** are the Detroit Tigers receiving a small market competitive balance pick? At the beginning of the decade, Illitch was routinely dropping $200+ million on that team...