The Jarmo Thread

[squashmaple]

You think someone playing 1 NHL game means they were a good draft pick??? That is what @squashmaple video is going off of.

Gabe Carlsson, Liam Foudy, Kerby Rychel and Marko Dano were great!

And both the video creator and myself acknowledge that criticism of his work as valid. But consider that more than half of guys drafted by NHL teams never see even a single game. The methodology on that can be improved, but it's not insane to use that as a base, either.

Spare me the Jarmo Draft Genius moniker.

Since 2013 these are guys he missed:

Shea Theodore
David Pastrnak
Ilya Sorokin chosen after Siebentaler(sp?)
Brayden Point right after Sorokin
Timo Meier
Mikko Rantannen (the last 2 were after Werenski at a time when our D pool sucked)
Devon Toews (right after Julian Pelletier)
Igor Shesterkin
Roop Hintz
Anthony Cirelli
Jordan Kyrou
Alex DeBrincat
Adam Fox (drafted right after Abramanov)
K'Andre MIller

Not saying he should have hit on all of these but as a draft genius you would think he would have gotten at least one?

It's disingenuous at best to use these against him and you know it. Draft steals are impressive for the teams that land them for a reason, and that's because every team in the league passed on these players in their drafts, in some cases multiple times. And there's no way to know a single one of them would've found similar success here that they've enjoyed where they developed. Let's say we draft Adam Fox. Then we're stuck holding the bag like Calgary and Carolina were because HE ONLY WANTED TO GO TO THE RANGERS.

 

[Cheddarcheese]

we shouldn't even be comparing ourselves to the rangers lmao Adam Fox refused to sign in Calgary and would only sign with a few teams same goes with Panarin same with trouba who was refusing to sign a long term in winnipeg

 

[Crede777]

Relax man, you're allowed to voice opinions but he claimed Jarmo didn't have a decade to construct a roster due to two guys leaving. That's a cop out excuse.

People really need to read entire posts for context as it would remove knee-jerk responses.

As for the "you can't even say" bit, judging Jarmo from 2020 and on is a ridiculous reach to try and salvage his recent awful tenure as the GM, hence why I called it out.

He didn't lose two guys - He lost four. And those four players were crucial to team success. Any team that lost Bobrovsky, Panarin, Jones and PLD would be essentially forced to rebuild.

What is ridiculous is acknowledging that the team started a rebuild in 2020 and then complaining that they've been bad since 2014 while ignoring the fact that Jarmo did succeed in building a team that was able to consistently make the playoffs before the rebuild came.

I agree that the Larsen hiring was bad. I understand why they went with Babcock. It's clear from the success under Torts and the lack of success under Larsen and (so far) Vincent that this group of players needs a hard nosed veteran coach instead of an inexperienced player friendly coach. And Babcock is/was the only coach available that fits that description. But even with Larsen and Babcock, two coaching missteps is not usually enough to get a GM fired.

Jarmo's drafting from 10-30 has been bad (aside from potentially Chinakhov). His drafting from 1-10 has been good but that has a lot of luck involved. After the mid-2nd, Jarmo has done well to identify NHL caliber talent.

At this point, I would say he is an about average GM. The risk with firing him is that it's a 50/50 that the GM the team hires to replace him will actually be worse.

 

[Cheddarcheese]

Jarmo has done a fantastic job im so pumped for our future we almost have too many good prospect! our most important year is this offseason with all our re signing! and i wouldnt want anyone else doing them! boone jenner for 3m lmao guy is a magician

 

[majormajor]

Hamilton,Panarin,Severson - One of these is different

That's funny, because there are Devils fans right now trying to get rid of Hamilton and lamenting the loss of Severson. And the parallel I was drawing was to Gaudreau, not Severson.

 

[majormajor]

The Rangers situation is different no? At minimum, Panarin >>> Severson/Hamilton. The Rangers had Lundqvist/Shesterkin/Georgiev, they had Zibanejad putting up 70+ points. Kreider, Buchnevich, Strome, Skjei, DeAngelo. Then traded Pionk to add Trouba the same off-season. They had Adam Fox making his rookie debut. Severson is a 2nd pairing D signed for 8 years. Not the same IMO, but maybe you disagree.

The Rangers did not trade 19OA in 2020 even after winning the draft lottery. They moved Skjei to get that 1st rounfpick.

It's different because Panarin is better and in my opinion a better signing. I opposed the Severson deal.

You might recall what we were discussing? The myth that rebuilding clubs don't do long term deals?

Another myth that I've seen popping up in today's comments is that rebuilding clubs don't spend to the cap. Almost every team is close to the cap.

 

[Marioesque]

Spare me the Jarmo Draft Genius moniker.

I don't think anyone is arguing that. But it would be healthy to recognize that the current young core in the roster is one of the most exciting and proven to be productive on the NHL level. So when we are talking about Jarmo's problems, the last three coaching hires, it's good to keep perspective and look at what he has done well.

If you emphasize the bad and ignore the good, you're not offering a full realistic picture. You can't do good analysis and come to correct assessments with any prediction power, if you manipulate the data like that. It's more faith than reason at that point.

It's easy to just rally behind an idea, but who would you replace him with that would be guaranteed to draft at least equally well and also hires better coaches? Who exactly is that person? If the intention is to make the org better, then it should be a clear upgrade and not some "could pan out". You don't send out one of the best drafters, if you can't replace it with better.

Who would be the better and available option? Someone with an equally impressive drafting record and young roster, but who has never failed with a coaching hire, and available for Columbus? I need names because I can't think of any right now.

 

[majormajor]

This is spot on imo.

A lot of harsh truths in there too. Plenty of people will claim that team had enough to win it but the reality is it set Columbus back another 5 years. Jarmo has no real plan on building the team, he's a great drafter but that's where it ends.

Good god, what?

Maybe 5 weeks. Not a single player we traded or player from a pick we traded is even NHL caliber. The foregone 1st from trading Panarin might be the same.

 

[majormajor]

What about Gaudreau? Thats more of our mid rebuild major signing. Severson is signed to a strange term but contract value obviously isnt to the degree of the other guys. We also drafted a lot more than NY did. They didnt know Fox would be a Norris caliber guy and they also gave Buchnevich away.

We didnt have lottery luck like the Rangers did but I think we got a hell of lot more lucky sucking in a year we got Fantilli 3rd vs Laf or Kakko. Add in some of our other picks and we did a lot better than they did at that part of a rebuild. They just had more established vets even if the team is slow and flawed. Also not scared to make management/coaching changes when they are unsatisfied with the teams results

Great point.

We've done much better at the idealized rebuild type things, like acquiring elite young players. They've done much better at signing Panarin. And better at having Adam Fox insist on playing for them.

We're talking about the club that did what a lot of folks here want our team to do, and sent a letter talking about how they were going to do a difficult rebuild.

**I'm somewhat having fun with the idea. To be serious, they've also done better at drafting defensive D and at not trading quality vets like Bjorkstrand.

 

[NotWendell]

That's funny, because there are Devils fans right now trying to get rid of Hamilton and lamenting the loss of Severson. And the parallel I was drawing was to Gaudreau, not Severson.

Every fan base has their share of idiots. Hamilton being out has hurt the Devils more than they care to admit.

 

[majormajor]

there are Devils fans lamenting the loss of Severson.

Every fan base has their share of idiots.

This maybe unintentional quip cracked me up.

I think Severson might actually be a good player (leaving his contract aside), it's just funny to me.

 

[Cowumbus]

You might recall what we were discussing? The myth that rebuilding clubs don't do long term deals?

you are the one who keeps insinuating people think that. Teams sign very good players in rebuilds, that they hope will be there once they are competitive. Or they sign short term stop gaps while their prospects develop.

They don’t sign older second pair D who can’t play defense, for 8 years in length. We traded assets to obtain the 8th year. I don’t get it. Those are the types of deals that screw too long term. That type of acquisition is not in line with a rebuild.

Unless you openly plan on buying him out down the line, and if that is the case, were there not better stop-gap options?

Severson is fine as a player but the contract sucks. You really need a DFD next to him (such as Siegenthaler/Kulikov) in order for it to work.

 

[majormajor]

you are the one who keeps insinuating people think that. Teams sign very good players in rebuilds, that they hope will be there once they are competitive. Or they sign short term stop gaps while their prospects develop.

They don’t sign older second pair D who can’t play defense, for 8 years in length. We traded assets to obtain the 8th year. I don’t get it. Those are the types of deals that screw too long term. That type of acquisition is not in line with a rebuild.

Unless you openly plan on buying him out down the line, and if that is the case, were there not better stop-gap options?

Severson is fine as a player but the contract sucks. You really need a DFD next to him in order for it to work.

It's a bad deal.

I would have liked it if it was for a real top pair caliber guy who was a plus at both ends. That's my only lament. I don't object to the idea of a team in our position doing an 8 year deal, you just better get a great player.

 

[stevo61]

Great point.

We've done much better at the idealized rebuild type things, like acquiring elite young players. They've done much better at signing Panarin. And better at having Adam Fox insist on playing for them.

We're talking about the club that did what a lot of folks here want our team to do, and sent a letter talking about how they were going to do a difficult rebuild.

**I'm somewhat having fun with the idea. To be serious, they've also done better at drafting defensive D and at not trading quality vets like Bjorkstrand.

They gave Buch away in an attempt to add grit/toughness and ended up giving that player back. Pretty comparable to us giving Bjorkstrand away. Of their top 4 D, 2 demanded to go there, 1 was acquired through trade (back to the pro scouting issue and a mix of luck) and Miller being the only one they drafted and developed. They were gifted a bit but they atleast had some plan when constructing a team and didnt undervalue bottom 6 grit. We are just where they were a few years ago except our management is feeling pressure (self imposed or from higher ups I have no idea) to get out of it so it puts us in a weird rushed spot. They also had Shesty in their back pocket which would be a nice luxury to go from Lundqvist to Shesterkin, a caliber of goalie we've got to watch 1st hand just once with Bob

I wonder if Jarmo would look at something like what Yzerman did in Detroit and throw some money at short term deals for vets or if he screwed himself by promising so many roster spots to kids and now we are left to watch the growing pains

Jarmo is fine at acquiring talent like puzzle pieces, hes not so good at putting those pieces together. He neglected grit for so long but luckily for him the Voronkov pick is panning out and the Danforth addition has been a blessing

 

[Napoli]

Good god, what?

Maybe 5 weeks. Not a single player we traded or player from a pick we traded is even NHL caliber. The foregone 1st from trading Panarin might be the same.

You don't think not selling Panarin and Bob at that deadline hurt us? Add the Dzingel trade and there's more assets out the doors. There was a solid rebuild happening, Jarmo went all in, it backfired and now he had to start all over.

You're taking what we gave up and not factoring in what they could have received. Picking and choosing and not seeing the whole picture.

 

[Napoli]

He didn't lose two guys - He lost four. And those four players were crucial to team success. Any team that lost Bobrovsky, Panarin, Jones and PLD would be essentially forced to rebuild.

What is ridiculous is acknowledging that the team started a rebuild in 2020 and then complaining that they've been bad since 2014 while ignoring the fact that Jarmo did succeed in building a team that was able to consistently make the playoffs before the rebuild came.

I agree that the Larsen hiring was bad. I understand why they went with Babcock. It's clear from the success under Torts and the lack of success under Larsen and (so far) Vincent that this group of players needs a hard nosed veteran coach instead of an inexperienced player friendly coach. And Babcock is/was the only coach available that fits that description. But even with Larsen and Babcock, two coaching missteps is not usually enough to get a GM fired.

Jarmo's drafting from 10-30 has been bad (aside from potentially Chinakhov). His drafting from 1-10 has been good but that has a lot of luck involved. After the mid-2nd, Jarmo has done well to identify NHL caliber talent.

At this point, I would say he is an about average GM. The risk with firing him is that it's a 50/50 that the GM the team hires to replace him will actually be worse.

Winning one playoff series isn't success, that's a stepping stone.

If you take a step and realize he did that when he could of got something for Bob and Panarin you realize he just failed. He went all in and it didn't work out. Most people don't like speaking about it because they view that Tampa series as a success for the franchise. It was and wasn't, great they beat a good team, bad that they didn't cash in on Bob and Panarin and then have done zilch since then.

Any team that spends to the cap and comes in the worst 5 teams in the league objectively has a bad GM. I'm not sure how anyone could argue otherwise.

 

[ColumbusTrill]

You don't think not selling Panarin and Bob at that deadline hurt us? Add the Dzingel trade and there's more assets out the doors. There was a solid rebuild happening, Jarmo went all in, it backfired and now he had to start all over.

You're taking what we gave up and not factoring in what they could have received. Picking and choosing and not seeing the whole picture.

Is the goal of being an nhl franchise not winning? Did we not sweep the team with the most points in nhl history? That cbj team was so good

 

[majormajor]

You don't think not selling Panarin and Bob at that deadline hurt us? Add the Dzingel trade and there's more assets out the doors. There was a solid rebuild happening, Jarmo went all in, it backfired and now he had to start all over.

You're taking what we gave up and not factoring in what they could have received. Picking and choosing and not seeing the whole picture.

Bob might not have returned a 1st - Goalie rentals rarely return 1sts, on top of that Bob wasn't having a great year, was creating drama, and had a reputation as a playoff failure. Imagine your GM trading a 1st for that.

Panarin would return a 1st+. Should be multiple 1sts for his talent, but unfortunately returns at the deadline are capped, they don't scale up with talent. So something like late 1st + 2nd is what I think he'd have fetched. That might be another Ceulemans, or maybe another Chinakhov. Who knows.

So add that to the Vitali Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, Lassi Thomson, Josh Doan, and Joel Blomqvist, it's possibly nothing lost.

Crazy thing is we still got Dmitri Voronkov out of that draft, with our first pick in the 4th round. We likely got more out of our 4th rounder than the entirety of what we traded away and forewent trading away.

 

[Marioesque]

Any team that spends to the cap and comes in the worst 5 teams in the league objectively has a bad GM. I'm not sure how anyone could argue otherwise.

According to capfriendly, CBJ has the 6th most cap space with $4.3 million right now.

So that would be in line with a bottom 6 position if your criteria is used.

 

[Napoli]

Bob might not have returned a 1st - Goalie rentals rarely return 1sts, on top of that Bob wasn't having a great year, was creating drama, and had a reputation as a playoff failure. Imagine your GM trading a 1st for that.

Panarin would return a 1st+. Should be multiple 1sts for his talent, but unfortunately returns at the deadline are capped, they don't scale up with talent. So something like late 1st + 2nd is what I think he'd have fetched. That might be another Ceulemans, or maybe another Chinakhov. Who knows.

So add that to the Vitali Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, Lassi Thomson, Josh Doan, and Joel Blomqvist, it's possibly nothing lost.

Crazy thing is we still got Dmitri Voronkov out of that draft, with our first pick in the 4th round. We likely got more out of our 4th rounder than the entirety of what we traded away and forewent trading away.

Those values are pretty speculative. Panarin was an MVP candidate that year, he easily returns more than a 1st and a 2nd.

 

[majormajor]

Those values are pretty speculative. Panarin was an MVP candidate that year, he easily returns more than a 1st and a 2nd.

You're right, probably 1st + 2 2nds. Snore.

 

[Napoli]

According to capfriendly, CBJ has the 6th most cap space with $4.3 million right now.

So that would be in line with a bottom 6 position if your criteria is used.

They'd be 9th in the league. I believe it was higher but still, this team is awful, clearly the contracts being signed aren't very good.

 

[Napoli]

You're right, probably 1st + 2 2nds. Snore.

More likely a good young player and a 1st. Add another 1st from Bob plus you save the picks from Duchene and Dzingel trades that's significant draft capital.

 

[joybang]

Selling before a playoff run is the exact type of loser mentality this franchise needs to steer clear of. There’s plenty of reasons to punt Jarmo but imo that deadline isn’t one.

 

[majormajor]

They'd be 9th in the league. I believe it was higher but still, this team is awful, clearly the contracts being signed aren't very good.

The quality of the players they've signed is the problem. Severson is an okay player but is he good enough to cancel out the badness of Gudbranson? That's $10m between those two. Laine has been our worst player, that's another $9m.

It's a quality issue, not the fact that they've spent the money. We want them to spend it. Rebuilding teams do in fact spend money and sign expensive players. They're typically close to the cap. Almost every team is close to the cap.