The Jarmo Thread

[I3LI3]

my gosh. this list is atrocious. can’t believe where they have our guy at.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

my gosh. this list is atrocious. can’t believe where they have our guy at.

While it’s probably too low, I do get it

 

[Fro]

We didn't lose Bjork to sign Gud...what a hack job to post it that way

 

[Jovavic]

Drury got the conference finals because of the goalie he inherited carrying the mediocre team he created there

 

[Tecmo]

We didn't lose Bjork to sign Gud...what a hack job to post it that way

I was about to make the same post. Bad journalism and it doesn't account for the proper timeline of offseason events.

 

[DarkandStormy]

 

[Halberdier]

"How FANS of each team FEEL according to John Smith".

Something doesn't compute now. Probably have a survey to check what fans are feeling instead of using a gut feeling of one guy.

Not saying the ranking is wrong or anything.

Edit: silly me, they indeed did a survey with quite nice lot of responses:

 

[Halberdier]

Not sure how much content is allowed to be posted, but here is the grading for CBJ and a small teaser about the text content:

Pretty reasonable.

(Though I should say the amount of questionable term/value contracts is really low in CBJ. Obviously depending on how eg. Elvis plays some of the next seasons, but I can't really see rotten contracts anywhere, and it's OK to pay "too much" for Voracek for a couple of years. OK, Gudbransson is a maybe, and Z is tad too pricey, but that's only because #1 D's are "overpriced" on the league and no can do about that.)

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Free agency should not be anywhere near an A. Just because you got Gaudreau to fall in your lap doesn't make you an A. He's had quite a few misses, which kinda bleeds into hiss roster building grade as well.

It sucks that draft and development are all in one category. But either way, its too high as well IMO. The public has it closer than we do.

Trades should be an A. I think people are still hurt by the Bjorkstrand deal.

For me, I'd have

Roster building: B-
Cap management: B+
Draft and develop: C+
Trading: A-
Free agency: B-
Vision: B
Total: B

 

[Sdrawkcab321]

I get it. His cap management has sucked and despite Johnny signing here we’ve lost a lot of big name guys who demanded out. Need playoff success to get respect.

 

[Fro]

Free agency should not be anywhere near an A. Just because you got Gaudreau to fall in your lap doesn't make you an A. He's had quite a few misses, which kinda bleeds into hiss roster building grade as well.

It sucks that draft and development are all in one category. But either way, its too high as well IMO. The public has it closer than we do.

Trades should be an A. I think people are still hurt by the Bjorkstrand deal.

For me, I'd have

Roster building: B-
Cap management: B+
Draft and develop: C+
Trading: A-
Free agency: B-
Vision: B
Total: B

I can agree with this

 

[Halberdier]

I get it. His cap management has sucked and despite Johnny signing here we’ve lost a lot of big name guys who demanded out. Need playoff success to get respect.

I think Johnny, Panarin and PLD situations were all because of "luck", good or bad.

Panarin just wanted to play NY and live the high life there. Nothing Jarmo could do about that.

It's nobodys fault except PLDs that his last name is "Doucheau". He did just quit, and now he is pretty much in the verge of quitting Winnipeg too. He is a quitter as a person. Besides, CBJ got the better player from that trade, plus even a bonus one as a middle-6 center.

Johnny (and his wife!) OTOH just wanted to live in Columbus, Ohio or in a couple of similar locations. Well done by the management, but the motivation was there regardless.

"Big names want out" was to large extent just about bad luck. Acquiring Johnny (and also Laine) evens some of that bad luck off, and exactly as you said, playoff success gives the respect.

Now, let's have some playoff success. For this season, making it the playoffs would be huge, and for the next season, a good run would turn most "B" grades into "A".

 

[tunnelvision]

For me, I'd have

Roster building: B-
Cap management: B+
Draft and develop: C+
Trading: A-
Free agency: B-
Vision: B
Total: B

Draft and Develop is weakest of all categories? For me losing Siren's scouting team would be presumably the biggest blow for the org if Jarmo and JD were fired. I don't think their Vision deserves a higher grade than draft and develop.

 

[Cowumbus]

For me, I'd have

Roster building: B-
Cap management: B+
Draft and develop: C+
Trading: A-
Free agency: B-
Vision: B
Total: B

Roster building C+
Cap management B-
Draft and Develop C+
Trading B+
Free Agency B
Vision B-
Total B-

 

[Finner]

Roster building B-
Cap management C
Draft and Develop B+/A-
Trading A-
Free Agency B
Vision B
Total B+

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Draft and Develop is weakest of all categories? For me losing Siren's scouting team would be presumably the biggest blow for the org if Jarmo and JD were fired. I don't think their Vision deserves a higher grade than draft and develop.

I guess I agree with their vision throughout their tenure. When jarmo got here it was stocking up on young talent and improving from within. Then we were better than he expected so he went out to improve us quicker with Horton . We were middling there but still a playoff team. He pushed all his chips in with the final panarin year, a move a disagreed with at the time, but in the end believe was the right call. Now we’re in building mode again and I think jarmo and JD have a good vision and understanding on how we get there.

As far as draft, I can agree that the drafting aspect might be a B or B-. But the development part is what sinks the grade. They haven’t drafted an impact forward yet outside of Dubois and Bjorkstrand. And dubois was a third overall pick.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Roster building B
Cap management C-
Draft and Develop B+ Draft, Development C (so overall B-)
Trading A
Free Agency C+
Vision C
Total B-

Here's my thing I think the vision is lacking. He first was building a roster from a defensive POV. Now that has changed (and I'm not certain if that is the best way to win).
He's great at trading.
He's done good at drafting, but I think he lacks in development (slightly better than average but not good)
Free Agency - did great with Johnny but outside of that he's not done much in free agency.
Cap Management is questionable. Slightly below average.
Overall B- (maybe C+). And again that is supported by the team and it's record.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I take Dom's 'analysis' with a grain of salt, as well as responses on a poll that is mostly comprised of people who read his work. And I say that as someone who generally likes/sees the value in hockey analytics.

A few glaringly obvious shortcomings that his model has:
- does not account for differences in team systems
- assumes that team performance is only a cumulative total of the player values
- doesn't recognize that playing on a good/bad team can heavily impact individual metrics
- doesn't define a player's actual role beyond ice time
- positioned as being factual; assumes its data isn't indicative of fixable issues

Of course, this isn't just a Dom problem, most public-sphere analytics models have these same issues.

For now, I'll just focus on how his model is heavily skewed by team performance and systems, yet Dom's model only looks at individual player results without that context. Everything Dom writes is derived from this model – standings projections, contract grades, etc.

Case in point: his model says that Florida had 12 skaters last year (more than half of their roster) that have a higher market value than the Jackets highest skater.

For the Jackets, the three highest skaters were:
- Bjorkstrand: $7m
- Voracek: $5.8m
- Werenski: $5.4m
- Laine: $5.2m

And here are some of Florida's mid-lineup depth pieces:
- Verhaeghe: $8.1m
- Duclair: $8.4m
- Bennett: $7.1m
- Reinhart: $10.8m
- Marchment: $9.6m
- Forsling: $8.8m
- Gudas: $4.2m
- Hornqvist: $5.2m

According to Dom's model, if Zito called Jarmo and said "I'll give you Hornqvist and Forsling for Laine and Werenski" (pretend there's no cap in this scenario) the Jackets should take it and run. But I guarantee that a month into the season, the model would show Werenski and Laine as elite players, and Hornqvist/Forsling as average ones.

Another example: Dom's model had Brandon Montour as one of the worst defensemen in the entire league at the 2021 trade deadline. Florida acquired him, Dom (and others) questioned it, now The Model™ has him as a $4.1m player on a $3.5m salary. In other words, he went from being a sub-replacement level defenseman to being more than twice as valuable as Gavrikov ($1.8m).

Did Montour suddenly become a better player? Or did he benefit from going to a team that always has the puck? Clearly it's the latter – and it works both ways. But he almost never acknowledges that when he uses this model to judge things like contract values or cap management, he just presents these figures as factual.

 

[koteka]

I am grading on a curve and giving them an A or A- on cap management. Just about every team has issues, but we were able to get the top free agent because we had a pretty good cap situation. You can debate the Bjorkstrand move, but that opens cap into the future. Nyquist comes off next year and then Voracek the following year opening up more space. The Atkinson / Voracek trade was genius. If you look at our contract situation in 24-25 when I hope our window starts to really open and teams like Pittsburg and the Caps have collapsed, we will be in a great position.

 

[Fro]

Thanks for that insight @cbjthrowaway

 

[EspenK]

I might have missed the time frame but if we are talking from Day 1 here are my grades

Roster building: C -he over valued it for too long before starting to shake it up.
Cap management: B+ - This has never been a sore spot for the Jackets in my memory.
Draft and develop: C - it has been bad but there is hopefully a change brewing. Hopefully he doesn't rush the new guys.
Trading: A- I think he probably deserves an A here but all of his key trades have been a result of unusual circumstances.
Free agency: D - until he signed Gaudreau, Not sure if it was his fault though.
Vision: C I'm not sure what his vision was. It appears now be build a very offense driven team.

Total: C

 

[Viqsi]

I take Dom's 'analysis' with a grain of salt, as well as responses on a poll that is mostly comprised of people who read his work. And I say that as someone who generally likes/sees the value in hockey analytics.

A few glaringly obvious shortcomings that his model has:
- does not account for differences in team systems
- assumes that team performance is only a cumulative total of the player values
- doesn't recognize that playing on a good/bad team can heavily impact individual metrics
- doesn't define a player's actual role beyond ice time
- positioned as being factual; assumes its data isn't indicative of fixable issues

Of course, this isn't just a Dom problem, most public-sphere analytics models have these same issues.

For now, I'll just focus on how his model is heavily skewed by team performance and systems, yet Dom's model only looks at individual player results without that context. Everything Dom writes is derived from this model – standings projections, contract grades, etc.

Case in point: his model says that Florida had 12 skaters last year (more than half of their roster) that have a higher market value than the Jackets highest skater.

For the Jackets, the three highest skaters were:
- Bjorkstrand: $7m
- Voracek: $5.8m
- Werenski: $5.4m
- Laine: $5.2m

And here are some of Florida's mid-lineup depth pieces:
- Verhaeghe: $8.1m
- Duclair: $8.4m
- Bennett: $7.1m
- Reinhart: $10.8m
- Marchment: $9.6m
- Forsling: $8.8m
- Gudas: $4.2m
- Hornqvist: $5.2m

According to Dom's model, if Zito called Jarmo and said "I'll give you Hornqvist and Forsling for Laine and Werenski" (pretend there's no cap in this scenario) the Jackets should take it and run. But I guarantee that a month into the season, the model would show Werenski and Laine as elite players, and Hornqvist/Forsling as average ones.

Another example: Dom's model had Brandon Montour as one of the worst defensemen in the entire league at the 2021 trade deadline. Florida acquired him, Dom (and others) questioned it, now The Model™ has him as a $4.1m player on a $3.5m salary. In other words, he went from being a sub-replacement level defenseman to being more than twice as valuable as Gavrikov ($1.8m).

Did Montour suddenly become a better player? Or did he benefit from going to a team that always has the puck? Clearly it's the latter – and it works both ways. But he almost never acknowledges that when he uses this model to judge things like contract values or cap management, he just presents these figures as factual.

I've been trying to find a good way to present this very phenomenon for a while and you've illustrated it quite nicely. Thanks!

(Admittedly, I didn't realize just how pervasively extreme the disconnect was. I was done with him on the basis of his measurability bias issues alone. )

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I thought I was going to get ripped to shreds for only giving jarmo a B. Turns out I’m the nice one? The people on the CBJ reddit would have chewed me up and spit me out if I said he only gets a B there.

 

[stevo61]

I dont get peoples FA rankings? I almost view it as good to stay out of it for the most part. Making nice signings like Nyquist and Kuraly along the way and now leaving himself capspace to even be an option for Gaudreau. I look at Toronto for example. They got the hometown guy that wanted to be there and now that contract is bad for the team depth even if he is still a great player

 

[tunnelvision]

As far as draft, I can agree that the drafting aspect might be a B or B-. But the development part is what sinks the grade. They haven’t drafted an impact forward yet outside of Dubois and Bjorkstrand. And dubois was a third overall pick.

Do you think their drafting+development is above, below or close to league average? How many teams have drafted and developed more impact forwards in the same time span (2013-2022)?

Roster building: C -he over valued it for too long before starting to shake it up.
Cap management: B+ - This has never been a sore spot for the Jackets in my memory.
Draft and develop: C - it has been bad but there is hopefully a change brewing. Hopefully he doesn't rush the new guys.
Trading: A- I think he probably deserves an A here but all of his key trades have been a result of unusual circumstances.
Free agency: D - until he signed Gaudreau, Not sure if it was his fault though.
Vision: C I'm not sure what his vision was. It appears now be build a very offense driven team.

Agree with the bolded.

I thought I was going to get ripped to shreds for only giving jarmo a B. Turns out I’m the nice one? The people on the CBJ reddit would have chewed me up and spit me out if I said he only gets a B there.

Are there more fans with rose-colored glasses in general than what we have here? I go to reddit very rarely.