Salary Cap: The Endless Speculation Edition

[Riptide]

Personally, I think they have more upside on defense right now than at forward. That's why it's an interesting question to me, because if you sign a top-4 D, they could become redundant within a year. I don't think it's super likely that McCann or Kahun would make a top-6 winger redundant, but I would be surprised if Pettersson and Marino don't make the #3D redundant.

That's a very good problem to have, when most top 4D are worth more than top 6 wingers. Besides... we have F depth to compensate for someone getting hurt. We still lack quality D depth options on the blueline. If we sign a top 4 guy and MP/JM make him redundant within in a year, then that bodes very well for our blueline.

There's also the fact that picking up skilled F help at the TD isn't all that expensive (usually), compared to what a skilled top 4 D would cost. Mojo went for a 2nd+4th. Not cheap, but not really all that expensive either.

 

[Riptide]

We have that guy. It's Bjugstad. I'm sure at some point they'll give it a test-drive this season unless they trade Bjugs first.

I don't think so given that the moment Bjugs is healthy we see him at C over McCann (which I think is the right move).

 

[Riptide]

I have serious doubts about how AG replaces PK. I was told that the PP difference would be negligible and chemistry with Malkin would overcome PK's raw talent.

There's a whole lot of season left, but the early returns haven't been encouraging.

Pittsburgh has played 16 games. Malkin+Gally have combined for 12 games (5+7) while missing a good chunk in between. And while I would have expected more than 0g/3a out of Gally I think it's far too soon to be getting worked up about it. The PP is obviously struggling - that was always going to be the biggest hickup to replace PKs ability to get the puck into the OZ under control. But I've liked what I've seen from Gally so far this season - he just needs to cut down on some of the cuteness and simplify his game a little.

 

[madinsomniac]

I still think its too early to be making definitive judgments on guys like Gally.. Kahun was getting the same treatment two weeks ago then he adjusted in nicely... i mean I wholeheartedly agree we need another high end offensive talent here... i just think its better to wait and see if he clicks rather than knee jerk dealing assets for a fix we may not need...

As for the D, i mean you really don’t have to make any moves right now... if letang comes back and you feel the need to keep cough drop in then maybe move JJ... if you get the right deal for Shultz, great... i mean that definitely won’t happen till tanger is back, and frankly probably not until the deadline... but I don’t think you just deal him for assets in the hopes of using them for a big target later... i think it would have to be more sure of a move...

 

[Louis Hensler]

Narrow-minded? You implied they didn't try.

Also, "Rust shouldn't be near the 2nd or 1st line..." What?

So far I'd say the Kessel trade has been a good example of addition by subtraction. Small sample size, but Rust may be the most effective winger on the team. (Note: Rust has four goals in five games. Kessel has three goals in sixteen games and already is a minus 4 on a plus team. Sound familiar?)

 

[Louis Hensler]

I have serious doubts about how AG replaces PK. I was told that the PP difference would be negligible and chemistry with Malkin would overcome PK's raw talent.

There's a whole lot of season left, but the early returns haven't been encouraging.

AG looks expendable.

 

[Louis Hensler]

Who doesn't do this 3-way trade:

Penguins get Zucker
Ducks get Schultz with an extension
Wild get Kase

To me, this is a great 3-way deal that addresses needs for each team and it's super reasonable based on rumored past trades (Faulk for Kase and the Kessel-Zucker nixed deal).

So we like JJ now?

 

[Scandale du Jour]

AG looks expendable.

He is expendable. He is what he is.

Either he clicks with Geno or do not. Let's give it a few more weeks, but if he doesn't, get rid of him.

 

[Turin]

So far I'd say the Kessel trade has been a good example of addition by subtraction. Small sample size, but Rust may be the most effective winger on the team. (Note: Rust has four goals in five games. Kessel has three goals in sixteen games and already is a minus 4 on a plus team. Sound familiar?)

The AZ board is already kind of turning on Phil. Perimeter playmaking Phil sucks, tried to tell em.

 

[Peat]

Kase is very good and I’d agree he’s better than Zucker in a vacuum, as well as having more upside, but his injuries really scare me.

Rather have Zucker all things considered.

Look on it an an opportunity to stop Letang being the most injury prone player on our team

Re Zucker - does he show signs of being able to produce on a good team? I'll be honest, much as I want his best play here, the risk of him being the same guy he is at Minnesota on 5.5m with term and trade protection is scary. There's a chance - maybe a tiny chance - that a trade for him could yield a bigger pumpkin that we were afraid of having with JJ.

-I wonder what Ehlers' price would be, and if anything around an extended Schultz/Chucky/prospects/picks would work for him+a defenseman for salary/depth purposes. He's the exact type of guy we should be targeting.

There was some talk of serious trade talks between Winnipeg and NYI of Ehlers for a dman - I think specifically LD - so I imagine he is gettable. However, I suspect that Winnipeg's stance is to wait and see on where they are with Buff and the rest of their core and Laine's progression before deciding what they want. Right now, it looks like they might have a mini-rebuild coming, and that kills Ehlers for win-now players and while it might open up Ehlers for futures, he is young enough and affordable enough that maybe they'd rather keep him. If things shift and they've got a chance but D is in the way, maybe it comes up again... but the problem is their need, at least if Buff comes back, is LD, not RD.

Also - you're going to have to get someone to agree to extend there for this to work and frankly, that's one of the harder asks in hockey unless Winnipeg want to give them wheelbarrows of cash.

 

[DeadPuckEra]

I could see Hall being a Penguin by the deadline. Rutherford will not be able to pass it up. He’ll certainly try.

1st, Galchenyuk, middling prospect.

Maybe a 1st and Jarry, decent prospect. Not many teams will have a young NHL caliber goalie with potential to offer up, and Jersey needs a fresh face in net.

 

[Turin]

I’m not a huge fan of Hall the person, but if he was healthy he’d obviously be a huge threat. Ehlers would be a godsend. I’d love to see him in Sullivan’s system next to Geno.

 

[Riptide]

Pettersson and Tanev could have been signed in any number of ways that didnt involve trading PK. The only player who couldnt have been acquired is Galchenyuk, who's been a non factor.

Moved this to the cap thread.

I have doubts about how consistently we would have been playing the sound defensive game we've been playing recently if PK was still here. Schultz letting Cizckas get the puck first instead of taking the hit to make the play (G1) reminded me of why I'm happy Kessel is gone. I think we've seen some significant strides in how the team as a team is playing, and PK not being here I think is a part of that.

 

[Riptide]

I definitely don't see a need to upgrade on any of Pettersson, Marino, JJ or Riikola if they keep playing like they have played. You may need Dumoulin to be the anchor on the 2nd pair, like Paul Martin was back in the day, but I don't think he can't do that.

I know that many said that JJ would be better this season vs last season (several dif reasons), but do you really want to bet on him continuing to play at the level he's at? Because while I agree with Peat that there's 3 legit question marks there (JM, JJ, JR) in regards to whether they can continue to build on their current level of play (or even maintain it), JJ is absolutely someone we should be moving on from, if at the very least to get out from under that contract. If we're happy to gamble on JM and JR, then find a #3 RD (which can be done for far cheaper then what JJ costs, without the term) and pair them with Riikola on the 3rd pairing.

 

[Riptide]

The Penguins have [snip] and Marino who look like top-4 D and are cost controlled long-term. They also have Addison, POJ, Almari and a couple of long-shot prospects (Phillips, Rielly, ect). I really don't see a need for a "top end D prospect" unless you plan on Letang retiring/leaving in the next 3 years.

And you give me shit for using small sample sizes...

I agree with you about the D prospect, but for someone who was harping on me about Guds small sample size... it's interesting that you're doing the same with less out of Marino.

 

[Gurglesons]

I know that many said that JJ would be better this season vs last season (several dif reasons), but do you really want to bet on him continuing to play at the level he's at? Because while I agree with Peat that there's 3 legit question marks there (JM, JJ, JR) in regards to whether they can continue to build on their current level of play (or even maintain it), JJ is absolutely someone we should be moving on from, if at the very least to get out from under that contract. If we're happy to gamble on JM and JR, then find a #3 RD (which can be done for far cheaper then what JJ costs, without the term) and pair them with Riikola on the 3rd pairing.

I really think we target Brendan Dillon hopefully long term. Then you can run Dillon - Letang, Dumo - Marino, Pettersson - X.

I also think you’re just seeing a younger league in general. Basically every contender has young ass D taking major minutes. Theodore, McAvoy, Sergachev, Makar, etc.

 

[Riptide]

Just some thoughts of mine, in no particular order:

• Jack Johnson has been serviceable, so I'm fine with holding on to him this season. As long as he keeps up this level of play. Hopefully his bad games don't swing too wildly from what his average has been as of recent.
• It took Kahun about 10-games to find his "way", so I suggest people offer the same leeway for Galchenyuk. I think he had something like a 12-game goal drought last season.
• Bjugstad is serviceable as the 3C. He's usually, what I've been calling, "uninspiring" but lately he's been quite good. Hold on to him until Blueger and/or Lafferty prove to be a 3C. Then you send him out for futures or an upgrade on defense who is on an expiring contract. Or is cheaper.
• Schultz has got to be gone come next season. Nothing against him, I just think the Pens cannot afford him.
• I hope the Pens can keep all of their RFAs.

I think we're likely to see Blueger take his spot next season. I've been impressed with what we've seen out of him. Still need to see a lot more, but it wouldn't surprise me if Bjugs gets moved (either this season or in the summer) and TB is given his spot. But I agree with you that there's no reason to force a move this season with Bjugs - he's been far better then most on here have been willing to give him credit for.

 

[Peat]

Because you need to consider both now and in the future, where acquiring a defenseman right now may make sense now but won't make sense in a year or 2. Being greedy now is a shortsighted mindset to have, unless the player you're acquiring now is also going to be an important player in the future. I don't see a point in acquiring a moderate upgrade on defense when Marino and Pettersson can be a solid 2nd pair next year. I don't see a point in paying a huge price for a 40 ES point scorer when you can get 35 ES points out of McCann. It's just not efficient uses of cap space.

If you're going to justify going bigger, actually go bigger, not "let's get 5 points for $3 million more" or "let's get a .5% better save% for $4 million more". I want to go cheaper in areas you already have suitable players so you can go bigger in areas of need. The Penguins just don't have a lot of areas of need right now, but I think it's a bad idea to commit more money to marginal improvements now just because you can. I'd rather go cheaper in multiple areas so you can offer Taylor Hall $10 million, not acquire marginal upgrades for a bunch more money.

I think this makes more sense now. Don't agree with a lot of it, but I get where you're coming from.

I do think you're underestimating the extent to which a lot of "win now" guys will also still look good in the future. Unless you take on high-risk scenarios - like seeing if Minnesota want to move Zuccs already was suggested by someone here - or short contracts - say Petry - you're still going to have a good player and a good trade asset if things change. Say we get Risto - if Addison comes through like a bat out of hell unexpectedly quickly - you can still trade them on and keep yourself strong that way. Tbh, this bit of it sounds like "But what if we have too many good players?". Maybe its not what you mean but what it sounds like and I disagree with that part strongly.


Question - Lets say you clear cap for a run at Hall at 10m and it doesn't pay off and you're left with a 22 man roster and 10m in cap. What would you do?

Also, would you be willing to pay 11.6m for Taylor Hall i.e. what he gets if he decides he wants equal money to Panarin and a contender agrees?

 

[Riptide]

He is expendable. He is what he is.

Either he clicks with Geno or do not. Let's give it a few more weeks, but if he doesn't, get rid of him.

You mean months, not weeks right? There's zero need to rush to move him. If he doesn't work out, then absolutely move him for someone else who might... but we're 7th in the league in GF while missing Malkin and Gally (among others) for more than half our games... we have time to see how things play out.

 

[Gurglesons]

My thought is that you need a LW for Malkin more than you need a RW for Crosby, and I don't know if Kase can play LW. Now, if he can play LW, I think Schultz for Kase would be more realistic (if you ignore the probable bad blood between the Ducks and Schultz).

Schultz for Kase does make a good amount of sense if you're fine with acquiring a RWer for Crosby and are happy with McCann-Malkin-Rust. I'm just not sure if they're at that point yet.

Kase also is cost controlled next year at 2 mil which would allow us to move one of our RWs if they demand too much.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think this makes more sense now. Don't agree with a lot of it, but I get where you're coming from.

I do think you're underestimating the extent to which a lot of "win now" guys will also still look good in the future. Unless you take on high-risk scenarios - like seeing if Minnesota want to move Zuccs already was suggested by someone here - or short contracts - say Petry - you're still going to have a good player and a good trade asset if things change. Say we get Risto - if Addison comes through like a bat out of hell unexpectedly quickly - you can still trade them on and keep yourself strong that way. Tbh, this bit of it sounds like "But what if we have too many good players?". Maybe its not what you mean but what it sounds like and I disagree with that part strongly.


Question - Lets say you clear cap for a run at Hall at 10m and it doesn't pay off and you're left with a 22 man roster and 10m in cap. What would you do?

Also, would you be willing to pay 11.6m for Taylor Hall i.e. what he gets if he decides he wants equal money to Panarin and a contender agrees?

Man, if we could get Petry I’d argue we likely have the best top four in the Metro when healthy. Dumo - Letang Pettersson - Petry would just be stupid depth. And then Riikola - Marino would be nice.

Don’t see how Montreal moves on from him though. He’s basically their # 1 D.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

You mean months, not weeks right? There's zero need to rush to move him. If he doesn't work out, then absolutely move him for someone else who might... but we're 7th in the league in GF while missing Malkin and Gally (among others) for more than half our games... we have time to see how things play out.

Months? No, weeks is what I mean. Sure, do not trade him just to trade him, but if he brings nothing, move on.

He is what he is. Nothing more, nothing less. If he does not click with Geno, he has no use on this roster.

It is really that simple, IMO. If they click, NICE! If they don't, meh, move on... as you said, we score without him.

 

[Peat]

Kase also is cost controlled next year at 2 mil which would allow us to move one of our RWs if they demand too much.

Basically, given what Kase has been vs what he will cost next year, I'd take him even if you told me at the start of the season he'd miss half of it and just cross my fingers very hard that he'd be fit and firing for the playoffs. Obviously I would be interested in other less injury prone use of the assets but I'd not be saying no to Kase.

Man, if we could get Petry I’d argue we likely have the best top four in the Metro when healthy. Dumo - Letang Pettersson - Petry would just be stupid depth. And then Riikola - Marino would be nice.

Don’t see how Montreal moves on from him though. He’s basically their # 1 D.

I don't think it happens unless the bottom falls out from Montreal's season and they decide they can't re-up him and can't compete before he's gone. Seems unlikely, but I think it's a possibility with all quality guys nearing UFAdom on bad steams.

 

[Riptide]

I really think we target Brendan Dillon hopefully long term. Then you can run Dillon - Letang, Dumo - Marino, Pettersson - X.

I also think you’re just seeing a younger league in general. Basically every contender has young ass D taking major minutes. Theodore, McAvoy, Sergachev, Makar, etc.

Yes and no. Yes the league is getting younger... but most of those D have a lot more experience (as well as draft pedigree, #26, #14, #9, #4) then what Marino does.

Makar is really the only one that fits what you're describing - and he was drafted 4th overall and is playing under 20mins a night. Theodore has played 200+ games and is 24. Sergachev while only 21 has played 171 games. And the only reason McAvoy (also 21) hasn't played ~180 games is because he's missed 50 due to injuries the past 2 seasons.

 

[Riptide]

Months? No, weeks is what I mean. Sure, do not trade him just to trade him, but if he brings nothing, move on.

He is what he is. Nothing more, nothing less. If he does not click with Geno, he has no use on this roster.

It is really that simple, IMO. If they click, NICE! If they don't, meh, move on... as you said, we score without him.

It's going to take a lot more than 4.5 games together to see if they can make things work.