Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[Egresch]

I'm not suggesting PLD will end up with Boston. I'm just stating it is naive of Habs fans to think Montreal is the only place he'd be happy to go to and the only team that would trade a decent haul for him.

Anyone who drafts Bedard can easily attract player like PLD (CHI, ANA, SJS).

 

[Rapala]

I don't think there's going to be that much pressure - Molson just used the rebuild word. He didn't even say it last year.

They are hunkering down and committed to the process here.

Anyways, everyone is interpreting things differently. My interpretation is that Dubois basically only wants to come here - now the Jets could just trade him as a rental rather than take our offer and they are within their rights to do that. Keep in mind Trouba just wanted to go to New York area, so it wasn't just one team there either.

I have full trust that Hughes will set his price and it will not include a top end prospect. That has been basically echoed by many of the media members close to the Habs - that Hughes is interested in PLD but he's more than comfortable taking his shot on FA.

Marty also gave us some clues last night when he was talking about our guys "learning how we want them to play" vs "learning how to play to win."
"You can't teach both at the same time" We aren't at the bolded yet. The push logically starts in his contract year. Unfortunately the gains we thought we made earlier this season got swallowed up by the injuries.

 

[Egresch]

Cool and we can walk away if the price and term is too much.

The rebuild doesn't hinge at all on acquiring PLD and it's clear Hughes/Gorton feel the same way.

Sure, it is not an obligation, but good opportunity for MTL.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Sure, it is not an obligation, but good opportunity for MTL.

It is but they will not be trading out our top prospects in a deal for PLD, nor should they.. and we know how astute Hughes is, he's not going to blow out our cap structure to sign PLD off free agency.

People need to relax - we will get PLD if he is serious about coming here, or the acquisition cost is in the Trouba range.

We are not over-extending ourselves.

 

[ML16]

Something like that seems to be the most logical.

Usually, the TDL is where a team can extract the most value of a pending UFA.

So we are talking of a late first + a good prospect. If Florida goes out early, that pick would be worth around 2x the value of a late first.

DVO was traded for a late first. Plus you have to factor that Winnipeg would need someone to take a spot on their center line.

But ultimately, it depends on where Winnipeg decide to go. Are they going for one last push with that core (they have a bunch of pending UFAs) or are they rebuilding right now?

One last thing. For Friedman to be confident to come out and say it's 95% MTL, it sends a pretty strong signal to the rest of the league. So it tanks PLD value outside of MTL big time

For discussion’s sake, let’s say the Jets decide to go all in next season and thus opt to use Dubois as their own « 1-year rental », signing him for around 7M AAV.

Let’s then assume that this plan backfires and that Winnipeg’s clearly outside of the playoffs race before TDL 2024.

Let’s also assume that the Jets’ misfortunes are then not tributary to a Dubois subpar performance, nor him being injured long term. That his value as a playoffs rental is in other words optimal; a 6’4 (near-)PPG C/LW with talent and grit.

How much would a contender be willing to pay to bolster its roster with such a « unicorn » player, especially @ 3.5M AAV (with 50% salary retention)? Short answer, very much.

How unlikely remains the cristallisation of such scenario for Winnipeg - tenuous at best to think that Dubois would (over-)perform on an overall underachieving Jets team next year - that « optimal value » is likely part of Winnipeg’s risk management calculations at the moment.

The crux of the issue regarding the feasibility of a Dubois trade this summer I think is thus at which extent can the Habs leverage - and the Jets accept - the unlikelyness of an optimal TDL 2024 return to fix a reasonable, mutually beneficial deal for both parties.

 

[Schooner Guy]

Cool and we can walk away if the price and term is too much.

The rebuild doesn't hinge at all on acquiring PLD and it's clear Hughes/Gorton feel the same way.

Agreed 100%. It doesn't hinge at all on PLD. As good as he is, he's far from a franchise player. I wouldn't even call him a star at this point.

I've been a sports fanatic for a lot of years and funny things can happen once losing has taken place in the same organization for too long. MSL has gained a lot of clout in the Habs organization and at some point I wouldn't be surprised if he tells Molson that enough is enough and that the process needs to be sped up. He's very proud of his history of being a winner. The presser where he didn't want to talk about Farrell in the line-up is quite telling

I also think HuGo will be in a tough position PR-wise if another NHL team walks away with PLD long-term. Media and fans in the Habs market can be very unreasonable and can pile on at an out of control acceleration rate. There is also pressure from sponsors if bottom 1/3 in the standings continues.

I'm personally all about taking all the time in the world to get this rebuild right but Habs execs aren't living in a vacuum. We'll see how this offseason plays out.

 

[themilosh]

Habs should trade FLA 1st once WPG gets knocked out - as it can't be lower than 17th. PLD for FLA 1ST + prospect + Dvorak.

this way we will start next season with PLD and Fantilli!

 

[nhlfan9191]

Habs should trade FLA 1st once WPG gets knocked out - as it can't be lower than 17th. PLD for FLA 1ST + prospect + Dvorak.

this way we will start next season with PLD and Fantilli!

Imagine being Dvorak thinking you’re signing a warm vacation in Arizona for 6 years only to get bounced around twice before your NTC kicks in and ending up Winnipeg. Lol

 

[OnTheRun]

Agreed 100%. It doesn't hinge at all on PLD. As good as he is, he's far from a franchise player. I wouldn't even call him a star at this point.

I've been a sports fanatic for a lot of years and funny things can happen once losing has taken place in the same organization for too long. MSL has gained a lot of clout in the Habs organization and at some point I wouldn't be surprised if he tells Molson that enough is enough and that the process needs to be sped up. He's very proud of his history of being a winner. The presser where he didn't want to talk about Farrell in the line-up is quite telling

I also think HuGo will be in a tough position PR-wise if another NHL team walks away with PLD long-term. Media and fans in the Habs market can be very unreasonable and can pile on at an out of control acceleration rate. There is also pressure from sponsors.

I'm personally all about taking all the time in the world to get this rebuild right but Habs execs aren't living in a vacuum. We'll see how this offseason plays out.

C'mon now, we had people kicking and screaming to defend Bergevin every moves, unreasonable yes, but not in the way you describe it.
They will get flak if another team walks away with PLD for peanuts, otherwise they are fine.

 

[Schooner Guy]

C'mon now, we had people kicking and screaming to defend Bergevin every moves, unreasonable yes, but not in the way you describe it.
They will get flak if another team walks away with PLD for peanuts, otherwise they are fine.

Every freaking year our hockey ops gets crucified for not taking enough QMJHL players. This has been happening for decades.

 

[OnTheRun]

Every freaking year our hockey ops gets crucified for not taking enough QMJHL players. This has been happening for decades.

Our previous head scout kept is job for TWENTY years FFS. Crucified, lol.

 

[Schooner Guy]

Our previous head scout kept is job for TWENTY years FFS. Crucified, lol.

I wonder if the Habs would have selected Louis Leblanc 18th overall at the Bell Centre in 2009 if they weren't worried about reaction from fans/media?

 

[Paddy17]

I don't think there's going to be that much pressure - Molson just used the rebuild word. He didn't even say it last year.

They are hunkering down and committed to the process here.

Anyways, everyone is interpreting things differently. My interpretation is that Dubois basically only wants to come here - now the Jets could just trade him as a rental rather than take our offer and they are within their rights to do that. Keep in mind Trouba just wanted to go to New York area, so it wasn't just one team there either.

I have full trust that Hughes will set his price and it will not include a top end prospect. That has been basically echoed by many of the media members close to the Habs - that Hughes is interested in PLD but he's more than comfortable taking his shot on FA.

What Gorton said today also leaves me to believe that. He asked for patience with the rebuild, and "letting things develop organically" means that some things change rapidly, and trying to go too fast is not recommended in a changing environment.

In other words, if they get a premier center in the draft, and if Dach becomes a beast, they might not need PLD all that much. They're willing to acquire him for a cheap price, but they're more than willing to wait and see where the organisation is at in 2024 too. Maybe Beck takes a giant leap. Maybe this and maybe that... lots of things can happen and it's clear they don't want to rush head first into something and regret it after.

 

[Guy Larose]

What Gorton said today also leaves me to believe that. He asked for patience with the rebuild, and "letting things develop organically" means that some things change rapidly, and trying to go too fast is not recommended in a changing environment.

In other words, if they get a premier center in the draft, and if Dach becomes a beast, they might not need PLD all that much. They're willing to acquire him for a cheap price, but they're more than willing to wait and see where the organisation is at in 2024 too. Maybe Beck takes a giant leap. Maybe this and maybe that... lots of things can happen and it's clear they don't want to rush head first into something and regret it after.

Cherry picking. He also said that they can trade picks and have a lot of assets to make trades.

 

[Paddy17]

Cherry picking. He also said that they can trade picks and have a lot of assets to make trades.

True, and so it should be. They are open to doing all of that, but it has to make sense and the price needs to be right. In other words, they are sticking to their vision and won't rush things for the sake of being competitive ASAP.

 

[OnTheRun]

I wonder if the Habs would have selected Louis Leblanc 18th overall at the Bell Centre in 2009 if they weren't worried about reaction from fans/media?

They picked the guy where he was expected to go, so probably. Maybe you would have a floor to stand on here, if Leblanc was the only poor 1st round selection the Habs had made, but the list of poor choices is so damn loooooong, with most of the draftee on the said list not french or from the QMJHL it make no sense to single out that specific pick.

 

[Schooner Guy]

They picked the guy where he was expected to go, so probably. Maybe you would have a floor to stand on here, if Leblanc was the only poor 1st round selection the Habs had made, but the list of poor choices is so damn loooooong, with most of the draftee on the said list not french or from the QMJHL it make no sense to single out that specific pick.

Do you know who else was expected to go around then? Chris Kreider. A player who fit the bill of Timmins type of picks and during an era when the Habs used to pick a lot of USHS players.

 

[TomKosto]

Do you know who else was expected to go around then? Chris Kreider. A player who fit the bill of Timmins type of picks and during an era when the Habs used to pick a lot of USHS players.

Jordan Schroeder was talked a lot too, probably Timmins would have choose him lmfao

 

[Mudz]

It signals that MTL is actively looking to trade for PLD and PLD wants to come here.

For discussion’s sake, let’s say the Jets decide to go all in next season and thus opt to use Dubois as their own « 1-year rental », signing him for around 7M AAV.

Let’s then assume that this plan backfires and that Winnipeg’s clearly outside of the playoffs race before TDL 2024.

Let’s also assume that the Jets’ misfortunes are then not tributary to a Dubois subpar performance, nor him being injured long term. That his value as a playoffs rental is in other words optimal; a 6’4 (near-)PPG C/LW with talent and grit.

How much would a contender be willing to pay to bolster its roster with such a « unicorn » player, especially @ 3.5M AAV (with 50% salary retention)? Short answer, very much.

How unlikely remains the cristallisation of such scenario for Winnipeg - tenuous at best to think that Dubois would (over-)perform on an overall underachieving Jets team next year - that « optimal value » is likely part of Winnipeg’s risk management calculations at the moment.

The crux of the issue regarding the feasibility of a Dubois trade this summer I think is thus at which extent can the Habs leverage - and the Jets accept - the unlikelyness of an optimal TDL 2024 return to fix a reasonable, mutually beneficial deal for both parties.

What do you think? What would be your guess?

I've already hinted to an answer in my post. Let me add something. If we look at the best comparable from last season, Bo Horvat got Anthony Beauviller, Aatu Raty and conditional first.

So Dvorack + Kidney + FLA first make a lot of sense.

Now, we don't know whats going to be the landscape of the next TDL. i.e. how many buyers vs sellers, who else going to be available.

All in all, I think it's in Winnipeg best interest to keep Dubois until TDL where they would be able to extract the most value.


In an other train of thought. I would have guess that Hughes would be against an hostile offer. But Gorton just said that one thing he likes about Hughes is his aggressiveness.

How about a KK move?
Looking quickly at Winnipeg's capfriendly, they have a few RFA and only 3M coming off from UFA. They were right at the cap.

Would MTL be willing to offer 8,4 M for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd?

 

[OnTheRun]

Do you know who else was expected to go around then? Chris Kreider. A player who fit the bill of Timmins type of picks and during an era when the Habs used to pick a lot of USHS players.

Timmins liked the USHL more at the time, which is where LeBust was playing if you want to stretch your non-argument that far.

 

[sampollock]

If PLD goes to free agency, the salary will get to an obscene amount especially with the cap rising. Funny things happen when there's a bidding war and close to 10 GM's trying to woo a player. Many players have left comfortable situations or decided not to go where everyone thought they would go once they become UFAs.

that is what I have been saying, so IF the habs want him, trade at the draft and sign him or the $$$ will be high for signing him at ufa time

 

[themilosh]

What Gorton said today also leaves me to believe that. He asked for patience with the rebuild, and "letting things develop organically" means that some things change rapidly, and trying to go too fast is not recommended in a changing environment.

In other words, if they get a premier center in the draft, and if Dach becomes a beast, they might not need PLD all that much. They're willing to acquire him for a cheap price, but they're more than willing to wait and see where the organisation is at in 2024 too. Maybe Beck takes a giant leap. Maybe this and maybe that... lots of things can happen and it's clear they don't want to rush head first into something and regret it after.

in fairness, if they win the lottery (bedard or fantilli) then PLD is less of a "must-sign" this year, but he would be a HUGE asset to our core group. The question then becomes, will we get him at UFA next year? if the answer is 100% yes, then I would wait.. if there is any doubt Hugo needs to get ahold of him this year to lock him in for 8 more.

 

[Schooner Guy]

Timmins liked the USHL more at the time, which is where LeBust was playing if you want to stretch your non-argument that far.

Fischer and McDonagh were two USHS picks they took in the 1st in 2006 and 2007. Kreider was there for the taking in 2009.

 

[MXD]

There's no guarantee Krejci will be back in September let alone 24-25 (doubtful he's still in the NHL by then) when PLD's next contract will begin. If they trade for PLD, Bertuzzi isn't re-signing. GMs can be creative when it comes to shedding cap space.

I'm not suggesting PLD will end up with Boston. I'm just stating it is naive of Habs fans to think Montreal is the only place he'd be happy to go to and the only team that would trade a decent haul for him.

If Krejci is back, then it's even less money for Dubois.
PLD's next contract begins in 2023-2024.

Still, fair enough for the bigger point. I don't even disagree with it myself.

 

[OnTheRun]

Fischer and McDonagh were two USHS picks they took in the 1st in 2006 and 2007. Kreider was there for the taking in 2009.

And he whiffed on Giroux and Marchand in the same draft back when he himself was in charge of scouting the Q to get Fischer and White. We had a bunch of awful draft over the year and you're absolutely not on to something with Leblanc.

Edit: It was Maxwell not White.