There have been plenty tea leaves to be read on Matthew's pending UFA mindset for years now. He's been very careful not to mention how much he loves playing here, or wanting to be a Leaf for life. The usual tropes from star players looking for a new contract with their current team - you just don't get anything of that from him.
My theory, while wild, is that he's been pulling up this year - I personally don't believe he is happy to be in Toronto (the City) not the organization. As someone who has lived and loves the LA life (and not even as a filthy rich 20-something) I can fully understand why he'd prefer to be elsewhere and I bet heavy, that's where he'll ultimately end up.
Folks - he's American with Mexican roots. He played his junior years in Switzerland rather than in Canada where the undisputed best programs exist for young hockey talent. That alone should have raised some eyebrows that this cat is different.
Leafs legacy is about all I can see as a draw to stay here, for someone like him.
Time will tell.