The Core Has To Go

[lanceuppercut75]

Guys, it’s not happening. Pursue some other “this is how you fix it” theory, the guy won the Hart last year and scored 60. Trading him is insanity, trade anything else, fire anything else, he is not the problem here.

Toronto cannot force Matthews to sign an extension.

If Auston Matthews doesn't agree to a long-term extension before the draft, which can be officially signed by Matthews and by the team on July 1st, then there are only 4 options :

- Trade Matthews as a 1 year rental contract before his NMC kicks in July 1st
- Sign-and-trade Matthews on July 1st with extension to the team he wants to go to
- Trade Matthews at the trade deadline for an even smaller return
- Matthews walks away as a free agent July 01 2024 and the Leafs get NOTHING

Now that he's old enough, Matthews is going to decide where he wants to play. If he doesn't want to play in Toronto, the ONLY two choices are "trade him and get something back" or "watch him walk away and get literally nothing". We can't lose a trade chip that valuable for nothing. We just can't.

 

[Stephen]

Ya, someone would pay a kings ransom for him, it probably has to kinda fit these conditions, but any suggestion that trading AM doesn’t bring back appropriate value is.. well wrong. No team is doing it without knowing they are signing eight years of him.

And it’s revisionist anyways, as if trading Matthews was a serious thought 2 years ago.. it’s not even now. Guys, it’s not happening. Pursue some other “this is how you fix it” theory, the guy won the Hart last year and scored 60. Trading him is insanity, trade anything else, fire anything else, he is not the problem here.

If Matthews wants to be here, I'd rather move the other 3x at the extreme end and start over with an overhaul around Matthews than trade Matthews and still have the other three.

Maybe Matthews himself isn't a fiery guy. But you free up that $28 million in salary in a revamped core, I wouldn't have an issue investing more time in this project.

 

[Stephen]

Toronto cannot force Matthews to sign an extension.

If Auston Matthews doesn't agree to a long-term extension before the draft, which can be officially signed by Matthews and by the team on July 1st, then there are only 4 options :

- Trade Matthews as a 1 year rental contract before his NMC kicks in July 1st
- Sign-and-trade Matthews on July 1st with extension to the team he wants to go to
- Trade Matthews at the trade deadline for an even smaller return
- Matthews walks away as a free agent July 01 2024 and the Leafs get NOTHING

Now that he's old enough, Matthews is going to decide where he wants to play. If he doesn't want to play in Toronto, the ONLY two choices are "trade him and get something back" or "watch him walk away and get literally nothing". We can't lose a trade chip that valuable for nothing. We just can't.

Well, keep in mind even if he walks for "nothing" we still free up nearly $12 million in cap space. So we are never going to be without good options, even in a worst case scenario.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Well, keep in mind even if he walks for "nothing" we still free up nearly $12 million in cap space. So we are never going to be without good options, even in a worst case scenario.

True, but you're missing out on so much value.

An example:
I saw an Avs fan say "I would trade Devon Toews (1 year rental) and a 1st round pick for Auston Matthews (1 year rental), and another 1st round pick to a third team to retain half of Matthews salary"

So now we have Toews (1 year rental) and a 1st. You can easily trade Toews as a 1 year rental for a 1st and a 2nd at the draft.

So now, with 2 offseason trades, we opened up all of the cap space we were spending on Matthews, and we got two 1st rounders and a 2nd. Now we can spend the cap space.

"Cap space"
versus
"same exact cap space + 1st + 1st + 2nd"

The only reason we should be keeping Matthews and letting him walk as a UFA is if we truly feel like we're a top 3 or top 5 contender for the cup next season. I think it's obvious that we aren't, regardless of how good of a regular season team we are.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Ya I didn’t bring Tavares up since he’s here no matter what. But if Tavares is serious about contributing to a winning team here in Toronto, he resigns in 2 years on a very team friendly deal/discount where he can chip in as a winger.

Not quite. If Tavares is serious about contributing to a winning team here in Toronto, he doesn't re-sign in 2 years, he resigns now.

 

[Squiffy]

I mean, let’s supposition he retires at 35, 17 years as a Leaf. Just as a theory. He'll own every Leaf scoring record by a mile. Not even close. The talk of trading that away is insanity. He is quite possibly the most elite talent we have ever had. You have to generatioanly adjust for the likes of Apps and Keon, but he's in the conversation. Already.

You blow up the team, and they might need to, you do everything on the table except him. You re-build around it. Like it's not even a consideration.

Toronto cannot force Matthews to sign an extension.

If Auston Matthews doesn't agree to a long-term extension before the draft, which can be officially signed by Matthews and by the team on July 1st, then there are only 4 options :

- Trade Matthews as a 1 year rental contract before his NMC kicks in July 1st
- Sign-and-trade Matthews on July 1st with extension to the team he wants to go to
- Trade Matthews at the trade deadline for an even smaller return
- Matthews walks away as a free agent July 01 2024 and the Leafs get NOTHING

Now that he's old enough, Matthews is going to decide where he wants to play. If he doesn't want to play in Toronto, the ONLY two choices are "trade him and get something back" or "watch him walk away and get literally nothing". We can't lose a trade chip that valuable for nothing. We just can't.

It never happens. It doesn't. We are not going to lose AM for nothing, Taveres is probably the only example, but really, this doomsday scenario never happens. I have heard it for nearly 20 years since the lockout and it doesn't happen.

If Matthews wants to be here, I'd rather move the other 3x at the extreme end and start over with an overhaul around Matthews than trade Matthews and still have the other three.

Maybe Matthews himself isn't a fiery guy. But you free up that $28 million in salary in a revamped core, I wouldn't have an issue investing more time in this project.

Hell yes

 

[Stephen]

True, but you're missing out on so much value.

An example:
I saw an Avs fan say "I would trade Devon Toews (1 year rental) and a 1st round pick for Auston Matthews (1 year rental), and another 1st round pick to a third team to retain half of Matthews salary"

So now we have Toews (1 year rental) and a 1st. You can easily trade Toews as a 1 year rental for a 1st and a 2nd at the draft.

So now, with 2 offseason trades, we opened up all of the cap space we were spending on Matthews, and we got two 1st rounders and a 2nd. Now we can spend the cap space.

"Cap space"
versus
"same exact cap space + 1st + 1st + 2nd"

The only reason we should be keeping Matthews and letting him walk as a UFA is if we truly feel like we're a top 3 or top 5 contender for the cup next season. I think it's obvious that we aren't, regardless of how good of a regular season team we are.

The most straightforward resolution here is he's a unique player who you can't replace. Have to determine if he's willing to buy into the program and if he is, express that we're ruthless about putting the right team around him. And that will start with a revamped core. Otherwise, there a lot of scenarios, but at the end of the day, $12 million in free cap is its own resource.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

I mean, let’s supposition he retires at 35, 17 years as a Leaf. Just as a theory. He'll own every Leaf scoring record by a mile. Not even close. The talk of trading that away is insanity. He is quite possibly the most elite talent we have ever had. You have to generatioanly adjust for the likes of Apps and Keon, but he's in the conversation. Already.

You blow up the team, and they might need to, you do everything on the table except him. You re-build around it. Like it's not even a consideration.

It never happens. It doesn't. We are not going to lose AM for nothing, Taveres is probably the only example, but really, this doomsday scenario never happens. I have heard it for nearly 20 years since the lockout and it doesn't happen.

Look man, I'm not trying to be a dick here. You seem like a really passionate Leafs fan and I respect that a lot. That being said, you seem to be in denial. You and I DO NOT KNOW if Matthews wants to stay here long-term or not. It's possible that he doesn't. You need to accept that. It's also possible that he wants to stay! But we need to be prepared for both scenarios.

What we DON'T need to do is what Calgary did with Gaudreau and what the Islanders did with Tavares, and keep Matthews past this summer and just hope and pray that we'll be able to convince him to extend with us before the end of the year. Matthews also has a No Movement Clause kicking in on July 1st, so from that point on, we lose control of the situation almost entirely.

"It never happens"... until it does.
"It's not even a consideration"... until it is.

Another thing for you to consider. Dubas MIGHT be staying, after building a team that can get past the first round. Dubas knows that he's going to be fired if Matthews walks away as a UFA on July 1st 2024. He's not going to let that happen. That means that in about 7 weeks, Matthews is either traded, or has a new contract, or both. We can all sit here and hope that the result is "new contract, not traded", but we really don't know what's going to happen behind closed doors.

 

[rielledup]

We should absolutely make that trade but the Ducks will never agree to it.

People on this board need to drill this into their brains :

It doesn't matter if this makes you angry or upset, it's the truth and you need to accept it: Matthews no longer has "normal" trade value, the kind you would think he has. He is now a 1 year rental contract. Unless you're doing a sign-and-trade to a team Matthews wants to extend with - maybe the Los Angeles Kings - he no longer has the sky high trade value that he used to have. If you REALLY really wanted to get "proper" trade value for Matthews, you should have traded him when he had term left on his contract.

"Normal" Matthews (2 ,or more realistically, 2.5+ years on his contract) for Fantilli and Drysdale isn't insanely lopsided. A 1 year rental of Matthews isn't even close in value to Fantilli + Drysdale.

That trade would be dependant on Matthews signing long term with Anaheim.

I specifically chose Anaheim because it's a team I think he might be willing to sign long term with. IIRC Matthews' long term gf lives in California and it has the anonymity and warm weather that in the past he's talked about missing.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

That trade would be dependant on Matthews signing long term with Anaheim.

I specifically chose Anaheim because it's a team I think he might be willing to sign long term with. IIRC Matthews' long term gf lives in California and it has the anonymity and warm weather that in the past he's talked about missing.

Most people seem to think that if we do a sign-and-trade, the three teams that Matthews might be interested in doing that for are Los Angeles, Anaheim and Arizona. Obviously nobody knows for sure, but those three are probably the most likely.

 

[Stephen]

Most people seem to think that if we do a sign-and-trade, the three teams that Matthews might be interested in doing that for are Los Angeles, Anaheim and Arizona. Obviously nobody knows for sure, but those three are probably the most likely.

If he truly wants to leave for one of those locations why wouldn’t he play ball and facilitate a trade there a la Matthew Tkachuk ahead of hitting UFA? That would make more sense than staying a lame duck season when all the heat is on and there is potentially massive upheaval in Toronto.

It seems like you’re trying to create pressure points for Toronto to act quickly and possibly foolishly when things are quite flexible. He either stays and you figure everything else out around him. Or he goes and all parties work together.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

If he truly wants to leave for one of those locations why wouldn’t he play ball and facilitate a trade there a la Matthew Tkachuk ahead of hitting UFA? That would make more sense than staying a lame duck season when all the heat is on and there is potentially massive upheaval in Toronto.

That may very well happen, and I'm not trying to imply that it won't happen.

All I know is that we have less than 8 weeks until Auston Matthews has a No Movement Clause. By that time, we need to KNOW that he's extending with us. I'm sure Dubas has told him that. If we don't know for sure that he's extending here, then this is our only remaining window to trade Matthews without him being able to veto absolutely any trade he wants to veto. He could even decide that what he wants is to stay in Toronto for one more playoffs but then leave, and then we literally can't trade him and are forced to watch him walk away next summer.

We can't let Matthews have all the power here. He's either staying or he's not. He knows that he has to decide before July 1st. He's probably known that for months and months and months. Nobody is rushing him to make a decision. He's had all season to decide.

 

[Squiffy]

Look man, I'm not trying to be a dick here. You seem like a really passionate Leafs fan and I respect that a lot. That being said, you seem to be in denial. You and I DO NOT KNOW if Matthews wants to stay here long-term or not. It's possible that he doesn't. You need to accept that. It's also possible that he wants to stay! But we need to be prepared for both scenarios.

What we DON'T need to do is what Calgary did with Gaudreau and what the Islanders did with Tavares, and keep Matthews past this summer and just hope and pray that we'll be able to convince him to extend with us before the end of the year. Matthews also has a No Movement Clause kicking in on July 1st, so from that point on, we lose control of the situation almost entirely.

"It never happens"... until it does.
"It's not even a consideration"... until it is.

Another thing for you to consider. Dubas MIGHT be staying, after building a team that can get past the first round. Dubas knows that he's going to be fired if Matthews walks away as a UFA on July 1st 2024. He's not going to let that happen. That means that in about 7 weeks, Matthews is either traded, or has a new contract, or both. We can all sit here and hope that the result is "new contract, not traded", but we really don't know what's going to happen behind closed doors.

Bud, I'm just having a conversation here, we don't need to qualify it, in the absence of proof otherwise everyone here is a nuts Leaf fan, with varying opinions on how best to go about it. We're just talking.

We're talking about things that aren't Havard level here, the Leafs are as aware of NTC's, term, as you and I. We are probably disagreeing on what is really the fundamental question, in this conversation, "does Matthews want to stay or is he one foot out the door"? I believe he takes a third contract from the Leafs and we don't worry about a NTC July 1, you (may?) believe he is one foot out the door and it is a potential disaster. I understand.

But either way really. I don't see why they wouldn't be on the same page this summer. Fans are way more ruthless then the actual happenings, it's an old boys club with unwritten rules about how these things go down. Taveres violated it, thats why he still get booed on the Isle. I think AM does right by "the code" because "the code" is almost never deviated from. My guess is he signs a record contract July 1, or he is traded before it (far less likely.. still guessing), but one or the other.

 

[rielledup]

I'd also like to remind people that Boston traded Joe Thornton in the middle of a Hart Trophy season and Boston went on to win the cup and SJ never won a cup.

AM and JT are similar in that they are super elite hart trophy winning regular season players but just ok in the playoffs. It's worse with AM because he's the 4th
highest paid player in the league.

If you're paying someone that much money and they're taking you that much of your cap they need to be able to dominate when it matters the most.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I'd also like to remind people that Boston traded Joe Thornton in the middle of a Hart Trophy season and Boston went on to win the cup and SJ never won a cup.

AM and JT are similar in that they are super elite hart trophy winning regular season players but just ok in the playoffs. It's worse with AM because he's the 4th
highest paid player in the league.

If you're paying someone that much money and they're taking you that much of your cap they need to be able to dominate when it matters the most.

Boston won the cup on Tim Thomas. This argument makes little sense.

 

[authentic]

I'd also like to remind people that Boston traded Joe Thornton in the middle of a Hart Trophy season and Boston went on to win the cup and SJ never won a cup.

AM and JT are similar in that they are super elite hart trophy winning regular season players but just ok in the playoffs. It's worse with AM because he's the 4th
highest paid player in the league.

If you're paying someone that much money and they're taking you that much of your cap they need to be able to dominate when it matters the most.

JT never won a Hart Trophy, and Matthews is wayyy better than Thornton ever was in the playoffs.

 

[seventieslord]

Boston won the cup on Tim Thomas. This argument makes little sense.

Actually, the argument makes a lot of sense. It shows you that is possible to trade a player like that and not regret it.

 

[rielledup]

JT never won a Hart Trophy, and Matthews is wayyy better than Thornton ever was in the playoffs.

According to NHL.com Thornton won the Hart. AM is better in the playoffs than Thornton was but he hasn't been great or dominant in the playoffs.

 

[Sypher04]

We should absolutely make that trade but the Ducks will never agree to it.

People on this board need to drill this into their brains :

It doesn't matter if this makes you angry or upset, it's the truth and you need to accept it: Matthews no longer has "normal" trade value, the kind you would think he has. He is now a 1 year rental contract. Unless you're doing a sign-and-trade to a team Matthews wants to extend with - maybe the Los Angeles Kings - he no longer has the sky high trade value that he used to have. If you REALLY really wanted to get "proper" trade value for Matthews, you should have traded him when he had term left on his contract.

"Normal" Matthews (2 ,or more realistically, 2.5+ years on his contract) for Fantilli and Drysdale isn't insanely lopsided. A 1 year rental of Matthews isn't even close in value to Fantilli + Drysdale.

Didn’t really hurt Tkachuk’s trade value last off-season. He returned Huberdeau coming off a 100+ point year himself, Weegar who is a good top 4 D, and I think there was even another piece

 

[lanceuppercut75]

Didn’t really hurt Tkachuk’s trade value last off-season. He returned Huberdeau coming off a 100+ point year himself, Weegar who is a good top 4 D, and I think there was even another piece

Tkachuk decided where he was going and signed an 8 year sign-and-trade contract.

Matthews is a 2024 UFA. If we're lucky, we can extend him ourselves, or sign-and-trade him with an extension to a team he wants to go to. If we can't find a team that Matthews wants to extend with that also wants to trade for him, then we're trading a 1 year rental going to UFA. The trade value on that isn't comparable to Tkachuk at all.

 

[JoeyBeans]

You keep AM and trade Marner.

 

[Trapper]

You keep AM and trade Marner.

You find out if Matthews will sign an extension July 1st.
If yes, what you said.
If no, trade them both.

 

[ACC1224]

You find out if Matthews will sign an extension July 1st.
If yes, what you said.
If no, trade them both.

I would think they would know before July 1
They probably have a pretty good idea already.

 

[ULF_55]

reasonable value means we get some average run of the mill players back we don't get any Connors or morriseys; teams don't pay big bucks for reclamation stars

What have Connors and Morrisey won in Winnipeg?

Seems like players being traded for like player and surround 1st. team all-stars with character players rather than same players team will believe it will work for them. Thus why the Leafs might be willing to take on players like Connors and Morrisey who aren't winners.

 

[ULF_55]

Well, keep in mind even if he walks for "nothing" we still free up nearly $12 million in cap space. So we are never going to be without good options, even in a worst case scenario.

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Not great but Aho, Lindholm, couple goalies, and a number of middle 6 forwards.