Value of: The case for trading Auston Matthews

[TorontoTrades]

Leafs have four players with a combined cat hit of over $40m....something has to give. But in a flat-cap world, trading a $10m contract is all but impossible. The Sabers are finding that with Jack Eichel.

I think that's more about the injury and the Sabres are wanting a return like he just won the Hart.

 

[therealkoho]

For those saying trade Marner instead - I addressed why it doesn't make sense. I'd like to hear a realistic trade that actually makes the Leafs better regarding a Marner trade. I have yet to hear one honestly.

this is the internet never ever forget that

 

[Legion34]

Bottom line is the ball is in Matthews court. The absolute only reason to trade Matthews is if he doesn’t want to sign. That is

a.) he asks out
B.) you don’t have an agreement in place moving forward into his last year. The NMC thing doesn’t really matter because ultimately he can just openly say he only wants to go to X like trouba or Jones.

if he asks out after this year. He has like 2 years at 5 million per year. That is incredible value. If he goes his last year. He is 750 k in real money.

I’m torn on whether he would leave due to ESPN. Matthews has openly said he loves Toronto and wants to stay. But will that change if they don’t make headway? Maybe.

Regardless home town feels have nothing to do with it. The Kaplan article was revealing. He has a whole marketing team with him at all times. It all comes down to Where he will be the biggest star.

1.) Toronto. That would have been a slam dunk pre espn. Deal. Toronto makes the most money. Has the biggest fan base and is the biggest global brand in hockey. He gets on magazine covers and video games. He is tight with bieber because of it who gets him in with a list. He could be the best player in leaf history. That would be massive for his brand.

2.) that being said. Espn may change things. If hockey takes off there. They may be able to market him as a bigger star. Especially in Hispanic markets. Or in Chicago or NY.

it will be interesting. It will be a money decision. Right now I think he signs with TO. Sets franchise goal record and asks out.

 

[Hobnobs]

I do. Marner's an elite asset. Vrana is really good, but he's also hurt and plagued a little bit by the floaties. Hronek is good, but he's a defenseman that by and large struggles with defense.
I don't think that Toronto would accept that trade. I think Marner's by far the best asset in the trade and he's younger than Vrana and only a year older than Hronek. I mean, dude, if 1.21 PPG is a downward spiral, sign me up for that ride. Marner literally had 2.57x as many points as ANY individual Red Wings player had last year.

Lastly, Vrana at 5.5M and Hronek at 4.5M are Marner's deal. I just merged the two players into one and I bring up and play Jordan Oesterle instead of Filip Hronek.

The logic of this thread is not sound. It's moronic. Sure, you'll get the best return back... but honestly, I'd rather have Matthews and whatever return I get for Marner over Marner and whatever return I get for Matthews. Will you get better assets for Matthews? Yup. But you're paying a much higher freight for them too. I just don't see how you trade Auston Matthews and come out as a stronger team for it.

It would be moronic to trade any of them. This isnt a "LEAFS MUST TRADE X"-thread. Its an "If leafs trades now they should trade X"-thread. Right now it would be moronic to trade either of them. If you trade Marner youre trading when his price is lower than it probably should be (lets see how the season moves along) and if you trade Matthews youre losing a young franchise centerman which obviously is not a good thing either.

However if you are going to trade one of them to make the team better NOW Matthews would probably net you the right return while whatever Marner brings will make your, at best, remain in status quo with a long term improvement from the evetual draft picks/prospects and at worst make the team worse both now and in the long term.

 

[NMacrules]

Let me first say Matthews is an incredible player, and a top goal scoring talent in the entire NHL. He is not and should not be the first guy that comes to mind when trading away a player in Toronto. That said... I think he should be the guy Toronto moves IF they don't have any playoff success this year. Below are the reasons and rationale.

1 - Luxury
Toronto has some luxuries, and their overall roster is paying for it. Having almost half the cap invested in four forwards has proven to be difficult when it matters, and their lower-end roster has payed the price. This has forced them to shop in the bargain-bin, with little success. Their bottom 6 (Kampf, Spezza, Simmonds, Engvall, Bunting, and Kase) make a combined total of 6.600 which is less than what their 4th highest paid forward makes. Basically, they are just way too top heavy. They need to free up some space in the top 6, to be able to spend more in the bottom 6. This is what I would try to address.

2 - Trade Value
Lets start with Tavares. JT has a full NMC and loves Toronto. Unless the Leafs were tanking (they aren't), there's no way he accepts a trade out of Toronto. Simply put, he's a very capable 1C with a massive and unmovable (NMC) contract.

William Nylander. The problem with trading Nylander is his contract. He only makes just under 7.000 which is very fair given his production and skill level. If Toronto were to trade him to try and improve their bottom 6, they would need 2-3 players coming back, and 6.962 is just not enough to go around. They would end up downgrading from Willy to say... a 5.000 player, and then get another bargain bin guy at 2.000 / it just doesn't make sense of the goal is spreading the wealth. This is similar to Kadri, where they got Barrie and Kerfoot back. They traded the onlyvaluable asset on a fair non-ELC contract at the time, and it kind of didn't work out.

Mitch Marner is often the target of trade talk for the Leafs. He makes too much money and is less important that Matthews. The problem is his trade value compared to Matthews. With Marner, you're likely getting a guy that makes 7.000 -8.000 back (M.Tkachuk for example), leaving ~3.500 to spend elsewhere. That's fair, but the downgrade from Marner to the 'replacement' is significant and is really only a 2-for-1 in the end. It's a little bit like the Nylander case where you're just not getting that much value for the downgrade.

Auston Matthews is the guy they should trade. Why? Because he'd command a king's ransom and fill out the roster while doing so. That, and he only has 3 years left before walking or wanting UFA money. The main requirement coming back would be a good 2C to play behind Tavares. They can get a guy like Couture+++ or W.Karlsson+++ (just examples) which could fill out their entire roster. He could literally fetch 3-5 roster players back in a deal.

3 - Losing players in Cap hell
Toronto is going to let their best defenceman (Reilly) walk because they can't afford him. He's on a bargain contract and will want a hefty raise (3.000+). Any deal that opens up cap space is also a deal that potentially lets Toronto keep their 1D, which is kind of important.

4 - Freedom from Cap Hell
The Leafs have had no cap and no options for years now. Spreading the wealth allows them to make small and medium sized moves, instead of only bargain-bin and blockbusters. They havent been able to tweak anything in years. Trading Matthews for multiple assets allows them to do that moving forward.

TL;DR
He's the only guy they can trade for 3+ legit assets, and he's a UFA in 3yrs. Oh, and they can probably keep Reilly instead of shopping for another bargain-bin player to replace him.

Edit:
If your reply is "trade Marner instead" then you're quite literally missing the point. If you can think of a Marner trade that makes the Leafs a better team, then go ahead and post it. Some of what I'm saying is that trade isn't out there. Prove me wrong if you want it to be Marner so bad. I've made the case for Matthews.

I think I'll start a thread about why Ottawa should trade Brady Tkachuk.

 

[NyQuil]

I think I'll start a thread about why Ottawa should trade Brady Tkachuk.

I'm sure there are some potentially valid reasons out there to do so. Here are a few to start:

1. He's paid a lot considering the production he's shown to date.

2. His willingness to play hardball for his contract could indicate that he's inclined to publicly demand to leave if the team doesn't become more competitive.

3. His trade value is relatively high right now, even with his contract, given his lack of injury history and the type of game that he plays and the intangibles that some hockey personnel are fixated on.

 

[NMacrules]

If that's all you got from this, then I feel bad for you.

Thats awesome! An Ottawa fan makes a thread for trading Matthews and someone doesnt like the plan and the Ottawa fan then attacks the toronto fan. Leave the leafs out of your mouth bud. Think about your own shitshow team.

 

[NMacrules]

Considering I proposed this in the off-season, Reilly would be a UFA and have zero value in a trade.

Marner wouldn't land M.Tkachuk because Calgary already has Gaudreau.

What are the other options?



Didn't I address why they kind of can't?
And If I didn't - for who then?

People keep saying the same thing without any answers. I offer a different perspective and it's generally ignored and answered with the same thing.. trade Marner. I'll ask again - can anyone name a realistic trade (that the other team would accept) involving Marner that actually makes the Leafs a better team?

Colorado wouldn't trade Landeskog for Marner
Calgary wouldnt do Matt Tkachuk because of Gaudreau
Ottawa wouldn't do Brady because of Melnyk
I doubt Carolina does Svechnikov for Marner
Who else would Toronto target exactly?

Good grief. You are all over the place. Leafs will give you Simmonds for Brady Tkachuk. There, I addressed it so it must be good right? I addressed it. So it is so. Your posts scream of being arrogant and demeaning. I don't give a shit what you addressed bud, You are a nobody like everyone else here. Stop being so damn condescending.

 

[MoreMogilny]

I’d only trade Matthews if there is an indication he’s looking to leave.

To me, him and Nylander are the last two players I’d move on the team.

If the Leafs blow it up completely then I can understand. Can’t see that happening, though.

 

[NMacrules]

For those saying trade Marner instead - I addressed why it doesn't make sense. I'd like to hear a realistic trade that actually makes the Leafs better regarding a Marner trade. I have yet to hear one honestly.

there you go again addressing stuff. Just because "you addressed it" doesn't make it right. Matthews will not leave Toronto. The Leafs are handling their own cap so I suggest you worry about yours.

 

[BradyTkachucky]

He’s gunna end up in Arizona, Vegas, LA , Ana or possibly San Jose , no way he is staying in Canada. If you believe that then you are being blind and not accepting of the process.

dubas messed up hard

Yes just like American Brady Tkachuk

 

[NMacrules]

Considering I proposed this in the off-season, Reilly would be a UFA and have zero value in a trade.

Marner wouldn't land M.Tkachuk because Calgary already has Gaudreau.

What are the other options?



Didn't I address why they kind of can't?
And If I didn't - for who then?

People keep saying the same thing without any answers. I offer a different perspective and it's generally ignored and answered with the same thing.. trade Marner. I'll ask again - can anyone name a realistic trade (that the other team would accept) involving Marner that actually makes the Leafs a better team?

Colorado wouldn't trade Landeskog for Marner
Calgary wouldnt do Matt Tkachuk because of Gaudreau
Ottawa wouldn't do Brady because of Melnyk
I doubt Carolina does Svechnikov for Marner
Who else would Toronto target exactly?

So you think you are a gm. You address everything like its fact. You don't have a clue what you are talking about. YOu addressed everything. So freaking condescending and arrogant.

 

[NyQuil]

So you think you are a gm. You address everything like its fact. You don't have a clue what you are talking about. YOu addressed everything. So freaking condescending and arrogant.

It's just a hypothetical scenario.

Step away from the ledge.

 

[BradyTkachucky]

I think the real question is, is Matthews willing to extend in Toronto? If so, you never trade him period. If not, well....

 

[KevinRedkey]

So you think you are a gm. You address everything like its fact. You don't have a clue what you are talking about. YOu addressed everything. So freaking condescending and arrogant.

You need to take a chill pill my dude

 

[NMacrules]

It's just a hypothetical scenario.

Step away from the ledge.

Hypothetical troll job. Couple Ottawa Trolls trolling the leafs and suggesting to trade Matthews....3 years before his contract is up. No one trades a top 3 player in the league especially a young center. Remember that time Matthews dismantled your team scoring 4 goals in his first game? Sure, we'll trade him. What a joke. Maybe you should start a thread why Edmonton should trade McDavid.

 

[NMacrules]

You need to take a chill pill my dude

You need to stop trolling leafs players...dandy dude.

 

[NMacrules]

I’d only trade Matthews if there is an indication he’s looking to leave.

To me, him and Nylander are the last two players I’d move on the team.

If the Leafs blow it up completely then I can understand. Can’t see that happening, though.

Matthews is not on the fire Dubas band wagon. He hopes he stays for his next contract because his agent bent him over on the last one. Dubas doesnt have a chance against these wiley vet agents. The leafs are hoping the cap goes way up to cover his next raise.

 

[NyQuil]

Hypothetical troll job. Couple Ottawa Trolls trolling the leafs and suggesting to trade Matthews....3 years before his contract is up. No one trades a top 3 player in the league especially a young center. Remember that time Matthews dismantled your team scoring 4 goals in his first game? Sure, we'll trade him. What a joke.

I remember Matthews being responsible for the OT winner for Ottawa in that game.



But yes, it would seem outrageous to trade your top talent which is why the OP provided a rationale which you are free to disagree with.

Maybe you should start a thread why Edmonton should trade McDavid.

Well, I imagine if they thought Draisaitl could get it done and McDavid somehow returned a slew of players that collectively outperformed him, it would make sense.

In general though, the best player in the deal does not return a collective value that exceeds his benefit to the team.

There are exceptions, like potentially with Erik Karlsson, but that was the result of a nose dive in terms of his capabilities.

 

[NMacrules]

I remember Matthews being responsible for the OT winner for Ottawa in that game.



But yes, it would seem outrageous to trade your top talent which is why the OP provided a rationale which you are free to disagree with.



Well, I imagine if they thought Draisaitl could get it done and McDavid somehow returned a slew of players that collectively outperformed him, it would make sense.

In general though, the best player in the deal does not return a collective value that exceeds his benefit to the team.

There are exceptions, like potentially with Erik Karlsson, but that was the result of a nose dive in terms of his capabilities.

At least you are reasonable.

 

[MagicalRazor]

What package would a team give for matthews . LEAFS would need a blue chip center back + roster player on a good cap deal and a 1st round for sure.

any player can be moved for the right deal .

 

[tapi]

Toronto should seek to move Matthews, if absolutely necessary, for another young legit #1 center below his grade, such as Aho.

With Tavares still being a relevant top player, they would still have extremely good center depth while decreasing the top heaviness of the high end + acquiring great future considerations alongside the main return.

The yield of Matthews is a King's ransom and if there is no other solution to the dilemma, it should be done, hard as though it may be to move the greatest goal scorer in the league in the past 25 years except for Ovi himself.

 

[elitepete]

Doesn't Matthews only have like 3 year left on his contract and is then a ufa? That would impact his value.

I think he's going to leave Toronto at the end of his contract though.

 

[freester]

What package would a team give for matthews . LEAFS would need a blue chip center back + roster player on a good cap deal and a 1st round for sure.

any player can be moved for the right deal .

 

[freester]

Eichel and Power for Matthews