OT: The Avalounge (mod warning - No Politics)

[Metallo]

Disregard my last post



What you may not be able to tell from the thumbnail or the title is that this video contains Pee Wee Herman in a Rasta hat with dreadlocks.

I love how Bryan's tuque is barely on his head to show max hair.

 

[Metallo]

I drink wine.

I read that in Borat's voice.

 

[UncleRisto]

I read that in Borat's voice.

"I drink hwine."

 

[Foppberg]

This guy ... the gift that keeps on giving. f***ing moron

 

[expatriatedtexan]

This guy ... the gift that keeps on giving. f***ing moron

I've been waiting for my account to be banned since I voted "Yes".

 

[Foppberg]

I've been waiting for my account to be banned since I voted "Yes".

It kind of reminds of the 2016-2020 era, where everyday it was "alright, what'd he say/do now?"

 

[tbassler]

It kind of reminds of the 2016-2020 era, where everyday it was "alright, what'd he say/do now?"

you are both a couple of idiots

 

[McMetal]

This guy ... the gift that keeps on giving. f***ing moron

He'll just say "it was tainted by bots" and move on. It's hilarious that he was dumb enough to even post that, though.

 

[henchman21]

Elon has a habit of making those polls knowing the outcome and already working on whatever it is he is asking about. There have been court filings in October and November where he was searching for a CEO. This has been in the works for a while. That said, he absolutely should step down.

I do find the demise things kinda funny though... Twitter has been a day away from death for 6 weeks now. Still waiting.

 

[SaltySkywalker]

I take pride in my fellatio.

FTFY.

 

[Murzu]

FTFY.

Interesting fix.

 

[Pokecheque]

I've been waiting for my account to be banned since I voted "Yes".

I did too. The more entertaining thing was watching all his sycophants fall over one another to shower him with adulation, which is about the only currency he cares about.

Elon has a habit of making those polls knowing the outcome and already working on whatever it is he is asking about. There have been court filings in October and November where he was searching for a CEO. This has been in the works for a while. That said, he absolutely should step down.

I do find the demise things kinda funny though... Twitter has been a day away from death for 6 weeks now. Still waiting.

You keep giving him credit as if he's a man who can think ahead, when in fact he is nothing more than a man with a decent knack for science who has the emotional maturity of a kumquat. He's as impulsive and temperamental as a child, the only difference between him and a real child is he has billions in disposable income.

 

[Ceremony]

you are both a couple of idiots

I think you really need to hear this.

Elon Musk does not care about you.

 

[Foppberg]

I'm hardly a fan of his, but man public opinion on him has been snowballing for awhile. Ever since his comments about the Philippines cave diving hero it's been a slow roll, and in the past 8 months or so it's been straight downhill.

He used to be the futuristic tech guy that made cool cars, and now... there are many different ways to describe him

 

[henchman21]

I did too. The more entertaining thing was watching all his sycophants fall over one another to shower him with adulation, which is about the only currency he cares about.



You keep giving him credit as if he's a man who can think ahead, when in fact he is nothing more than a man with a decent knack for science who has the emotional maturity of a kumquat. He's as impulsive and temperamental as a child, the only difference between him and a real child is he has billions in disposable income.

I’ve watched his stuff for 15+ years. I know the ebbs and flows fairly well at this point. He’s an asshole and impulsive… but normally finds his way when you have longer timeframe than months. You’re very quick to find the worst in his actions…

 

[The Merchant]

Elon has a habit of making those polls knowing the outcome and already working on whatever it is he is asking about. There have been court filings in October and November where he was searching for a CEO. This has been in the works for a while. That said, he absolutely should step down.

I do find the demise things kinda funny though... Twitter has been a day away from death for 6 weeks now. Still waiting.

Some companies are simply too big to fail instantaneously in a capitalist landscape. I personally do not believe twitter will ever be in true danger until there is a viable substitute on the market. The stock plummet of Tesla and the abandon ship effect of advertisers on twitter are very real, though.

 

[henchman21]

Some companies are simply too big to fail instantaneously in a capitalist landscape. I personally do not believe twitter will ever be in true danger until there is a viable substitute on the market. The stock plummet of Tesla and the abandon ship effect of advertisers on twitter are very real, though.

The stock plummet of tesla will stop when the cash flow is reported on. The demise there is way overblown (which means buying opportunity).

The abandon ship is yet to play out over a longer term. Short term we have signs, but now being a private company, we don’t have a clear picture of how much. Longer term… who knows… we will see. Investors have high expectations of returns on value (to the tune of 3-5x over 2-3 years).

 

[The Merchant]

The stock plummet of tesla will stop when the cash flow is reported on. The demise there is way overblown (which means buying opportunity).

The abandon ship is yet to play out over a longer term. Short term we have signs, but now being a private company, we don’t have a clear picture of how much. Longer term… who knows… we will see. Investors have high expectations of returns on value (to the tune of 3-5x over 2-3 years).

Tell that to all of the the millionaire Tesla investors calling for Elon's head on his very own platform. They don't seem to be as confident as you are with that prognosis...and neither does Elon considering he's begging them to tell him what to do.

 

[henchman21]

Tell that to all of the the millionaire Tesla investors calling for Elon's head on his very own platform. They don't seem to be as confident as you are with that prognosis...and neither does Elon considering he's begging them to tell him what to do.

Meh the more noise, the more it signals capitulation. Very, very common thing in investing.

 

[Pokecheque]

I’ve watched his stuff for 15+ years. I know the ebbs and flows fairly well at this point. He’s an asshole and impulsive… but normally finds his way when you have longer timeframe than months. You’re very quick to find the worst in his actions…

Conversely I would say you’re very quick to find excuses for his horrible behavior.

I don’t think he really “finds his way”, merely the apparatus that doesn’t allow multimillionaires and billionaires to fail finds a new way to bail his dumb ass out. It’s pretty easy to punch holes in every myth that’s been created about him.

 

[henchman21]

Conversely I would say you’re very quick to find excuses for his horrible behavior.

I don’t think he really “finds his way”, merely the apparatus that doesn’t allow multimillionaires and billionaires to fail finds a new way to bail his dumb ass out. It’s pretty easy to punch holes in every myth that’s been created about him.

The short seller mythos is really what you’re getting at and it really doesn’t hold water. Been through 12 years of it and it is the same story (that is mostly misinformation and half truths). He’s a flawed person, but if you’re looking at successful businessmen, you’re talking about a lot of flawed people. Even Steve Jobs was a complete shithead.

I don’t think a requirement for being good at business and running a company is being a good person. I’d argue, frequently, being a good person is actually a hindrance.

 

[The Merchant]

Meh the more noise, the more it signals capitulation. Very, very common thing in investing.

Guess we'll see. Elon's f***ups have caused Tesla stock to fluctuate wildly in the past, but I've never seen anything like this.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

I have admired Musk the inventor, and more importantly Musk the dreamer who can create big picture parameters and hire the right engineers to then take that and end in return a creation that works, is efficient as can be given current state of physics, is elegant as possible in both script writing as well as aesthetic design and for what is actually often a fair deal for consumers. He's done this with Tesla, he's doing it with Star Link, he's gone beyond nth degree with SpaceX. These things all have one goal in common...they are driving humanity forward:

Tesla - Reducing our carbon footprint by creating incredible efficient and luxurious, electric vehicles. To be honest of these three companies this is my least favorite. I find Tesla impractacle due to the lack of charging stations and the cost of electricity in places like where I live. Granted gasoline is still currently $3+/gal here but home electric rates are 23.08¢ per kWh in Fairbanks, the National Average is 16.32¢ per kWh. Our local power plant is carbon (coal). The fact that is is currently -30F and I'm pretty sure putting a massive number of vehicles on the road that all exhaust water will cause DOT to turn in the snowplows for Zambonis. I'm just not convinced that when you take the carbon footprint for all the production costs to build and then all the energy costs to run (electric is carbon based across large swaths of the US) and then the expense to maintin. I'm not conviced that these really benefit the environment from cradle to grave all that much.

Star Link - Almost a humanitarian effort. He's bringing broadband to places that often have no internet or when they do the are lucky if it's DSL over 1970's copper phone lines. Quible all we want of the public stunts like, "Oh, Well I fund Ukraine myself" and the fact that he really doesn't...cut that Musk personality thing out of the equation and you can say he has helped Ukraine out. He prioritized and deployed specifically for them...and that brings us to

SpaceX - This is actually a humankind effort. A company that directly touches the heart of my late70s early 80s inner child. This is a dream of mine. The fact that we were was on the moon twice in the year I was born but haven't been back since. It was like we retreated to low earth orbit. But then in my adolescence, Star Wars came out and you know how something like that effects kids. SpaceX is doing what that kid wanted us to be doing. It's getting us into space cheaper, and more efficiently, more frequently. It's working on Mars as a colony, and the Moon as a steppingstone. This is because of Musk's vision, he believes humanity ultimately, even if it can survive itself, will still need to leave Earth one day. He wants to lead us in that exploration. I can get behind this, and I think he's shown he can get progress much faster than NASA.

Finally, he has a company that is a complete vanity project...

Twitter - We look back at the people we credit for driving humanity forward and a lot of them have some similarities. Some were unscrupulous, Edison stole ideas, and even created metal sheets wired to AC to murder large animals on in front of crowds as a warning to not go to the AC system. I mean a DC system would require a power generation every block or two, but still...this is part of who Edison was. Tesla was a terrible businessman, eccentric, and I believe autistic although I've never read that anywhere specifically, I've just gathered from what I've read about his personality and a lot of his quotes and writings that he seems like someone who would reside rather high in the autism spectrum. This Twitter project if it drags on is going to destroy Musk. The very nature of what Twitter exists to do feeds the very worst aspects of his personality. And while he's not the single greatest rocket scientist at SpaceX, nor the best satellite designer or GPS code writer at Star Link, and no he's not the best engineer at Tesla. But those companies are all suffering from him becoming a human spectacle. Also, the time he's investing in Twitter is taking away his time from the other 3. Investors of the other 3 are getting antsy with him. He's definitely tarnishing his legacy.

I really didn't mean to write this much. It's got a damn scroll bar on the right side now. So, if you made it this far, I really do appreciate you taking to time to ready my thoughts. I always do, but I don't expect it when they get long. Anyways, have a Pepsi on me.

 

[henchman21]

Guess we'll see. Elon's f***ups have caused Tesla stock to fluctuate wildly in the past, but I've never seen anything like this.

Happened a few times (cybertruck, finding secured, covid, massive gigafactory costs, early s/x ramp issues… something like the 6th 50+% drawdown… Number might be slightly off but close)… but important to remember we were highly elevated last Oct-Nov as a whole. Now we’ve corrected massively as a whole. We may not be at a bottom for the overall market or tesla right now… but we’re getting close.

Simply put, a company producing free cash flow like it is today, with near zero debt load…. It is a gold mine for investing (not to mention roic that is at absurd levels for a mega cap). We’re talking 18-20b in fcf and potential stock buybacks. This is Apple like in 09-10 and Microsoft 97-98. Markets have a way of reacting to a lot of noise and then correcting on financials. Seen this before many times.

 

[henchman21]

I have admired Musk the inventor, and more importantly Musk the dreamer who can create big picture parameters and hire the right engineers to then take that and end in return a creation that works, is efficient as can be given current state of physics, is elegant as possible in both script writing as well as aesthetic design and for what is actually often a fair deal for consumers. He's done this with Tesla, he's doing it with Star Link, he's gone beyond nth degree with SpaceX. These things all have one goal in common...they are driving humanity forward:

Tesla - Reducing our carbon footprint by creating incredible efficient and luxurious, electric vehicles. To be honest of these three companies this is my least favorite. I find Tesla impractacle due to the lack of charging stations and the cost of electricity in places like where I live. Granted gasoline is currently still $3/gal here but home electric rates are $2.08 per kWh in Fairbanks. The National Average is $16.32. Our local power plant is carbon (coal). The fact that is is currently -30F and I'm pretty sure putting a massive number of vehicles on the road that all exhaust water will cause DOT to turn in the snowplows for Zambonis. I'm just not convinced that when you take all the production costs and all the energy costs required to run it and maintain (and the carbon footprint associated with those things (coal for electricity) etc., that these really benefit the environment from cradle to grave all that much. I think the big play right now are the hyrbrid cars (really decreases the gpm's significantly and the cost differnce to upgrade to one isn't all that much as a percentage of overall vehicle price.)

Star Link - Almost a humanitarian effort. He's bringing broadband to places that often have no internet or when they do the are lucky if it's DSL over 1970's copper phone lines. Quible all we want of the public stunts like, "Oh, Well I fund Ukraine myself" and the fact that he really doesn't...cut that Musk personality thing out of the equation and you can say he has helped Ukraine out. He prioritized and deployed specifically for them...and that brings us to

SpaceX - A company that directly touches the heart of my late70s early 80s inner child. This is a dream of mine. The fact that humanity was on the moon twice in the year I was born but hadn't been back since. It was like we retreated to low earth orbit. But then in my adolescence, Star Wars came out and you know how something like that effects kids. SpaceX is doing what that kid wanted us to be doing. He's getting us into space cheaper, and more efficiently. He's working on Mars as a colony, and the Moon as a steppingstone. He believes ultimately even if humanity can survive itself, it will still need to leave Earth one day. He wants to lead us in exploration. I can get behind this, and I think he's shown he can get progress much faster than NASA.

Finally, he has a company that is a complete vanity project...

Twitter - We look back at the people we credit for driving humanity forward and a lot of them have some similarities. Some were unscrupulous, Edison stole ideas, and even created metal sheets wired to AC to murder large animals on in front of crowds as a warning to not go to the AC system. I mean a DC system would require a power generation every block or two, but still...this is part of who Edison was. Tesla was a terrible businessman, eccentric, and I believe autistic although I've never read that anywhere specifically, I've just gathred from what I've read about his personality and a lot of his quotes and writings that he seems like someone who would reside rather high in the autism spectrum. This Twitter project if it drags on is going to destroy Musk. The very nature of what Twitter exists to do feeds the very worst aspects of his personality. And while he's not the single greatest rocket scientist at SpaceX, no the best satellite designer or GPS code writer at Star Link, and no he's not the best engineer at Tesla. But those companies are all suffering from him being a human spectacle. Investors are getting antsy with him. He's definitly tarnishing his legcy.

I really didn't mean to write this much. It's got a damn scroll bar on the right side now. So, if you made it this far I really do appreciate you taking to time to ready my thoughts. I always do, but I don't expect it when they get long. Anyways, have a Pepsi on me.

This is fair.

One point… EVs are unlikely to be super ecological in very cold weather areas. It is possible (Norway and Iceland with a ton of renewable, hydro and geothermal energy), but places like the middle of Alaska are going to be difficult given the infrastructure. Lithium ion technology is a generation or two away from dealing with consistently cold temps well (basically anything consistent below 0F is hard but below 10-15f isn’t great. Consistently a key word). Places like where I’m at that are moderately cold (winter days between 10 and 30f with 25-30 being common), but also have super cheap energy (10-11 cents kWh)… it changes the whole equation. It isn’t everywhere, but 80-90%.

There have been many studies… a few released in the past few weeks… that EVs payoff their battery production early, even at the national average grid. 50-60k mi is in the higher end of the equation. Even if you don’t buy a Tesla, EVs are worth it and a good thing overall. Not a perfect solution, but a good one given how we depend on cars in today’s society. The sooner we get most people to communing on EVs, the better. Doesn’t need to be all, just most. Add to that solar, nuclear, wind and geothermal steps that are being taken, and we can cut our energy and CO2 output usage way down while not going backwards.