Ran the 17-18 numbers while I was deep in the Swedish urskog, some quick takes on the defenceman projections:
LHD had a stronger showing in the top tier than in 16-17 but were still in the minority, especially at the very top (in projected xGF%Rel.). 1/5, 3/10, 9/20, 13/30. In addition, most of the LHD in the top 30 (9/13) played in a limited role (below average TOI%), while only 5/17 RHD did so.
Only one player in the top 30 screams anomaly, Alex Biega, and two that are likely anomalies but are young enough to not be written off completely (Nutivaara and DeMelo).
A shame the Rangers couldn't acquire Sergachev (ranked 23rd, 13th, and 6th in proj. P60, xGF%Rel, and CF%Rel) in the McDonagh trade, sure looks like a stud.
DeAngelo showed well as expected (4th, 24th, 13th), and he improved in all categories compared to 16-17 (19th, 85th, 31st).
Skjei surprised me a bit as he almost managed to repeat his excellent possession numbers from last year, while improving his projected P60. He was ranked 45th, 23rd, 35th in 16-17 and 17th, 35th and 59th in 17-18.
John Gilmour showed decently in P60 (59th) and xGF%Rel. (94th) and very well in projected CF%Rel. (22nd).
Brendan Smith rated surprisingly well (most likely due to his high ixGF60 and iPenD60) with 78th, 70th and 68th (he was a shocking 9th in proj. xGF60).
Shatty's numbers were a disappointment as his projections were almost as bad as his actual numbers, rating out in the mid-low 2nd pairing range with 117th, 98th, and 108th. I really hope it was his injury bothering him and not a natural decline (his projected xGF%Rel and CF%Rel show a slow and steady decline with a sharp dropoff for this season).
Staal's numbers, while better than in 16-17, where about as terrible as expected rating from the low 2nd to low 3rd pairing range (98th, 147th, 165th). His only bright spot was his time with Shatty as a partner, which actualy was Shatty's best minutes as well. Keep them together.
Pionk's numbers were actually quite encouraging (81st, 117th, 167th) compared to his abysmal actual possession metrics. He should be able to do very well in a 3rd pairing role, just don't throw him to the wolves with Staal as his partner like AV did.
Holden is no longer with us, and we should be thankful for that. While his actual numbers were quite good his projected numbers were UGLY (172nd, 164th, 183rd). Always the passenger to a better partner will do that for you. Thank you for the 3rd Sweeney!
Speaking of the Holden trade, O'Gara rates where you expected him (166th, 217th, 194th).
McDonagh's projected numbers have not been the ones of a 1D since 13-14 and after an off-year in 14-15 he's been a borderline 1st pairing player in each of his last three seasons according to his projected numbers with a trajectory of very slow decline. Probably a good time to trade him, although high-end LD's are hard to find as I've stated previously.
While Freddy Claesson had extremely impressive projected numbers in 16-17 (29th, 4th, 12th), his 17-18 left a LOT to be desired (179th, 157th, 185th). While he may work out with a skilled partner, 'm not going to expect more than a 7D performance from him. He is also a good example of why you shouldn't make too much of a single season in a comfy role, especially if the player hasn't showed scoring prowess earlier in his career (basically a 100% prerequisite for having legit top pairing potential).
Considering the 17-18 projections this is my preferred top-6:
Skjei-DeAngelo
Smith-Shattenkirk
Gilmour-Pionk
With the condition that Staal has to be in the lineup:
Skjei-DeAngelo
Staal-Shattenkirk
Smith-Pionk
I've attached the top 30 defencemen in projected P60, xGF%Rel and CF%Rel for the curious and will post my trademark radar charts upon request for those interested.
