silverfish
got perma'd
Yeah, Burns' 07-08 season. Before he became a volume shooting, point scoring, machine.
The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:
- Thread starter Gardner McKay
- Start date
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Machinehead
Fox Mafia Consigliere
silverfish
got perma'd
Blue Blooded
Most people rejected his message
After two seasons we we can observe the following:
Skjei has played extremely well paired with a skilled offensive defenceman (Clendening, DeAngelo, Gilmour).
His results with 2-way (Shattenkirk, McDonagh, Smith) or defensive defencemen (Klein, Girardi, et. al.) have been ranging from average to outright bad.
Tentative conclusion: He does best when playing an uptempo attacking style but struggles to play methodical anticipating defence.
Corsica | Pairing Stats
Skjei has played extremely well paired with a skilled offensive defenceman (Clendening, DeAngelo, Gilmour).
His results with 2-way (Shattenkirk, McDonagh, Smith) or defensive defencemen (Klein, Girardi, et. al.) have been ranging from average to outright bad.
Tentative conclusion: He does best when playing an uptempo attacking style but struggles to play methodical anticipating defence.
Corsica | Pairing Stats
silverfish
got perma'd
Shit like this is what makes xG impossible. It doesn't help that my regression is already returning negative values for xG, which is logically impossible, but that this is one of them, and it resulted in a goal. A 96 foot wrist shot, during 5v5, not a rush, not a rebound.
Thoughts in general on the Skjei signing? SA16 and I were going back and forth in DMs pretty good about this last night. Personally, I don't see any underlying numbers that suggest Skjei will ever be a $7m AAV guy like some in the thread are seeing. Honestly, I think we already know what Skjei is. He doesn't have the offensive prowess necessary to drive his AAV that high. He won't, and shouldn't, get the PP time to juice his stats.
I'd have bridged, no question, and made the bet that a deal for Skjei two years from now doesn't run you more than $5.5m AAV. And then at least you're not tied to him for 4 more years if that does occur.
However, I see the other side of this. The major benefit of bridge deals is to use cost-controlled years to keep beefing up the rest of your money. Save money now, pay money later. The Rangers, clearly, do not feel like they need or want to save cap right now. They're not trying to compete. They didn't go for JvR or CDH or anyone big on the market. So, they can more... generously(?) bet on Skjei now than they might have wanted to if they were trying to compete this year.
Oscar Lindberg
Registered User
Unfortunately with the way the market is going, and the cap rising, I don’t see a way you could get Skjei for 5.5 in two years if you bridged
I think he is worth about 4.5 a year for 6 but I’m not a GM
I think he is worth about 4.5 a year for 6 but I’m not a GM
silverfish
got perma'd
That's exactly what you can get him for if he plateaus as the player he is now. A good 2nd pairing, poor 1st pairing, EV and PK left-handed d-man. Skjei has a (albeit barely, but still) higher AAV than Lindholm. That's criminal.
Oscar Lindberg
Registered User
I completely agree it’s criminal.
To play devils advocate a bit, If Lindholm was up for a contract today he would get way more than 5.25. He signed for what the going rate was at that point, although I think he actually could have gotten more from Anaheim at the time.
Skjei also signed for less of a cap hit percentage than Lindholm. Skjei at 6.6 to Lindholms 7.17 at the time he signed, not that it’s really relevant cause Lindholm is way better of a player
Blue Blooded
Most people rejected his message
TBH, I never considered a bridge deal a good option - I wanted to sign him at ~$5M for 8 years. But as I said in the other thread I find your arguments convincing.
I'm high on Skjei, his underlying 5v5 numbers in 16-17 were those of a low-end 1D that scored more than he deserved (may have been an abberation as Clendening rated as a high-end 1D). I think that generally you want to sign your talented players to 8 year contracts after their ELCs considering the cap inflation. It is true that Skjei probably won't be in line for a contract with a higher cap% AAV in two years, but with cap inflation that might be a significantly higher number.
What I will say is that I think the Rangers are ready to compete a lot sooner than most people seem to think - we are in 2010-11 right now.
Attachments
DanielBrassard
It's all so tiresome
How much better off would the team be if Skjei+Miller for Trouba was a real thing a couple of years ago lol.
Harbour Dog
Registered User
Skjei + Namestnikov
vs
Trouba + ~2M cap space (assuming we signed him to a 7-7.5M contract)
Sigh.
Machinehead
Fox Mafia Consigliere
I think Skjei is pretty bad offensively, but thinks he's pretty good.
He does better with a guy who will carry the puck for him. Shattenkirk is good in the offensive zone but he isn't a puck carrier.
He does better with a guy who will carry the puck for him. Shattenkirk is good in the offensive zone but he isn't a puck carrier.
Ghost of jas
Unsatisfied
Notice that Skjei has looked good with partners such as Clendening and DeAngelo.
silverfish
got perma'd
Would rather pay the guy $5m+ AAV who is driving the pairing, not the guy who needs a certain type of partner to be effective.
Flames need to clear some cap space. We should call them about Stone. Stone sucks. 2 years left @ $3.5m AAV. Bad on-ice impacts. His relTxGF metrics aren't the worst, but the rest is shit. See if they'll throw in Spencer Foo. Foo is an older prospect, probably NHL ready. Volume shooter. Almost 3 shots on goal a game last year in the AHL. 15 shot attempts last year in 54 NHL 5v5 minutes.
We need bodies to re-create Nash in the aggregate. Much better than Vesey, and a right-handed shot.
edit: ctrl+f "Stone" replace "Brouwer"
Flames need to clear some cap space. We should call them about Stone. Stone sucks. 2 years left @ $3.5m AAV. Bad on-ice impacts. His relTxGF metrics aren't the worst, but the rest is shit. See if they'll throw in Spencer Foo. Foo is an older prospect, probably NHL ready. Volume shooter. Almost 3 shots on goal a game last year in the AHL. 15 shot attempts last year in 54 NHL 5v5 minutes.
We need bodies to re-create Nash in the aggregate. Much better than Vesey, and a right-handed shot.
edit: ctrl+f "Stone" replace "Brouwer"
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Mac n Gs
Drury plz
- Jan 17, 2014
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Needed a good laugh this morning.
TMW silverfish posts the same thing in another thread because our brains simultaneously exploded.
TMW silverfish posts the same thing in another thread because our brains simultaneously exploded.
silverfish
got perma'd
This league is so far behind where it needs to be. I truly believe that any FO that starts looking to where this sport is headed rather than where it has been will have such a competitive advantage it's stupid.
The fact that players like Cody McLeod still get NHL contracts is just absurd. And the fact that fans and FOs around the league understand them, or defend them, is even worse.
He'll barely play.
Good locker room guy
Who cares, it's a small cap hit
f*** off.
Then you have shit d-men like Ceci asking for SIX MILLION in arbitration? Are you ****ing kidding me? It's bad enough Ottawa's offer is over $3m AAV.
And before anyone asks, yes, I do think I'm smarter than any GM or any FO that pays Cody McLeod any amount of money to be on their team. I truly believe that.
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
silverfish
got perma'd
Right. Should've been more specific. It's terrible that Ceci ever made that much money.
Mac n Gs
Drury plz
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Awfully worded tangent: Hit the nail on the head on trying to be proactive and get players that fit well with where the NHL is heading rather than where it is or was in the past.
You need speed and skill foremost, and the gaps separating these levels between players is closing rapidly year-to-year. Grit and hitting are great, but it can’t be the only tool a player has, and actually good grit players are often overlooked.
Luckily I think Gorton realizes this by drafting big, fast, skilled players that have shown that they’re really strong in transition. I mean just go look at the clips of Kravtsov yesterday and you see him moving at top speed through the neutral zone while shifting the puck away from defenders. We didn’t really have many players that could attack a defense 1v1 through the neutral zone like that and create mismatches down low. Chytil can do the same thing, and Lias is a guy that wins puck battles in small areas of the ice. If you think about possession as winning a % of the ice while the puck is in play, I think we’re moving in the right direction. The next step is to have it be properly coached and implemented.
silverfish
got perma'd
Remember when we opened the 16-17 season and our fourth line was Grabner - Pirri - Fast? I thought we had it. I really thought we were there.
Blue Blooded
Most people rejected his message
I'm on my phone and cannot dig through data thoroughly, but I do have access to the projection data from 16-17 (and only the 16-17 season) and Ceci's numbers were surprising to me.
While his actual numbers were atrocious in terms of P60 and xGF%Rel, the model predicts that he would be a downright good player if moved into a new environment. His projected xGF%rel is middle pairing level (85th in the league) and his projected P60 low-end top pairing (48th). His closest comparable for that season in terms of projected impact was Duncan Keith.
The same cannot be said for his partner Phaneuf, whose metrics were all around bad (actual and projected).
It's hard to say since it is only one season and could be an abberation, but Ceci might be a good player that has been given a thankless role. His OHL/AHL results were those of a very good prospect.
While his actual numbers were atrocious in terms of P60 and xGF%Rel, the model predicts that he would be a downright good player if moved into a new environment. His projected xGF%rel is middle pairing level (85th in the league) and his projected P60 low-end top pairing (48th). His closest comparable for that season in terms of projected impact was Duncan Keith.
The same cannot be said for his partner Phaneuf, whose metrics were all around bad (actual and projected).
It's hard to say since it is only one season and could be an abberation, but Ceci might be a good player that has been given a thankless role. His OHL/AHL results were those of a very good prospect.
Blue Blooded
Most people rejected his message
Apparently DeAngelo was McDavid-tier in transition in his 12 game sample that was tracked last year so he should be a weapon in that regard if Quinn allows his defenccemen to skate the puck up the ice unlike AV.
JimmyG89
Registered User
- May 1, 2010
- 10,149
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ADA is one of the most intriguing players coming into camp. He's played primarily with older, more established NHL coaches in his NHL tenure (Tippett and AV). Quinn has primarily been coaching in developmental leagues, and you'd hope has a better grasp on the players coming up. I think he's going to do well with Quinn as his coach.
Mac n Gs
Drury plz
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I really hope this is something we see more of tactic wise. So many teams now have their defensemen negate zone entries and kick start transition in a 5-man attack, or they have the forwards peel back to attack in a similar way. It’s tough do that when you’re stretching your team too much in the hopes of hitting a home-run breakout pass. Under AV, I feel like we often tried for the low-percentage/high-reward plays too often. I’d rather be tactically smart and efficient than swing for the fences every time. It’s too dynamic and variant of a sport.
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