The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[Blue Blooded]

That John Gibson contract is especially amazing when you remember that Carey Price is making $10.5M for 8 more years

Impressively low cap hit, Gibson is (a distant) second to Bobrovsky (ROBBED of the Vezina in 17-18) in GSAA over the past two years.

 

[Drew4u]

Other hot takes from around the league, the model says Nashville should trade Subban yesterday (though it has significantly underestimated his P60 six years in a row). Nashville has three 1D's and he is not one of them.

Nashville also has the best 5v5 top-6 forwards in the league, with the best being Craig Smith and the worst being Ryan Johansen (the model likes volume-shooting forwards).

If I was David Poile I'd look to trade Johansen (probably the most overrated C in the league) for Mika Zibanejad (probably the most underrated in the same age range).

Idk about Johansen being the most overrated. He's a ppg center in the playoffs.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Impressively low cap hit, Gibson is (a distant) second to Bobrovsky (ROBBED of the Vezina in 17-18) in GSAA over the past two years.

Yeah, he’s been incredible for Anaheim. They need help up front because their D+G combo is probably the best in the league.

With your model, who does it forecast as being underrated F and D that would be good targets to acquire?

 

[Blue Blooded]

Yeah, he’s been incredible for Anaheim. They need help up front because their D+G combo is probably the best in the league.

With your model, who does it forecast as being underrated F and D that would be good targets to acquire?

On the phone now so I'm going off of memory.

It loves Craig Smith and Brendan Gallagher who would have been prime targets to acquire for pennies on the dollar, in the 2017 offseason. They're still underrated according to the model, but both had decent seasons, are both a year older and their contracts are not in perfect sync with the Rangers needs. Skinner was another such guy, but he was just traded. MacKinnon was the guy the model loved each and every year, but he finally broke out. It has always loved Barrie as well.

Rick Nash, still a top line forward, is a legitmately good target.

Brandon Saad and Jonathan Toews are still very much top liners.

Fiala is the guy I'd target on Nashville, great projections. Not sure they are interested in moving him. Ekholm is the D I'd target from them as Ellis would require moving Shatty IMO.

Hickey seems to be underappreciated on the Island.

Panarin seems to be rated as an elite W when he's probably has elite C impact, acquire if possible.

Christian Djoos had a great year, but not sure how the Caps feel about him.

And of course C L E N D E N I N G.

 

[silverfish]

@Blue Blooded hit me with that Pysyk evaluation when you get a chance. I find myself believing that if the Rangers unloaded some of their wing-depth for him, that the rest of the defense could slide into their correct position, and this could be a playoff team. But also, I'm always wrong, I don't watch the games, and I'm not a GM, so who knows!

 

[Blue Blooded]

The model has Pysyk as a borderline 1syt/2nd pairing guy. What do you think he could be had for?

 

[silverfish]

The model has Pysyk as a borderline 1syt/2nd pairing guy. What do you think he could be had for?
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Thanks! That's essentially where I have him as well. I think he could be had for less than his actual value since he's the 2RD on Florida and always will be behind Ekblad. But this would need to be a 'hockey' trade and not a 'we're rebuilding but are we actually rebuilding' trade.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I’d try to get Fabbri too if he were available. Fiala is great, and I miss when I used to spam Craig Smith + Jack Dougherty for Nash. G times

 

[Lundy HOF]

@Blue Blooded hit me with that Pysyk evaluation when you get a chance. I find myself believing that if the Rangers unloaded some of their wing-depth for him, that the rest of the defense could slide into their correct position, and this could be a playoff team. But also, I'm always wrong, I don't watch the games, and I'm not a GM, so who knows!

I thought we didn’t want to make the playoffs

 

[Blue Blooded]

Looking through the list of players with good projections that were underutilized by their coach (below avg 5v5 TOI%) induces the following thought: LOL AV!

All of these players appear from high up to the very top:

Nash
Kreider
Buchnevich
DeAngelo
Gilmour
Smith

It's frustrating but understandable with the defencemen, but the forwards are baffling. How do you give bonafide top liners 3rd line TOI!?

 

[Off Sides]

Looking through the list of players with good projections that were underutilized by their coach (below avg 5v5 TOI%) induces the following thought: LOL AV!

All of these players appear from high up to the very top:

Nash
Kreider
Buchnevich
DeAngelo
Gilmour
Smith

It's frustrating but understandable with the defencemen, but the forwards are baffling. How do you give bonafide top liners 3rd line TOI!?

This will come off like I am defending AV but I am not really.

I kind of wonder if Nash was trying to avoid injury or was injured and maybe his stamina was not very high. Kreider said he was short of breath with the blood clot thing. Smith was reported to be out of shape. How much that effected their time on ice I have no idea, just a theory.

I don't think AV was a very good coach for Buchnevich, DeAngelo, Gilmour. I am guessing he really just did not like their defensive games, rightly or wrongly.

While I'd agree giving the most TOI to the best players should be a thing I think expecting all the player to have the same stamina is not quite right, it would probably lead to diminishing returns in P/60 should they look like they just killed a penalty when playing 5on5 in the third period.

I kind of wonder if injury, stamina is something that is always going to be difficult to quantify in hockey, in most other sports it's more of a series of short events so I'd think those numbers would be more accurate regardless of player stamina. Hockey players seem to play through injury more often than in other sports too.

 

[silverfish]

Nash spent way too much time on the PK and not enough time 5v5. That was always one of my biggest AV complaints. He didn't ride his horse. @SA16 and I bring this up a lot. It's weird, because he rode the Sedins like crazy in VAN, but chose not to deploy his personnel like that here. Makes you think that AV never believed he had any horses to ride here.

Also love that TOI is an advanced stat.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Nash spent way too much time on the PK and not enough time 5v5. That was always one of my biggest AV complaints. He didn't ride his horse. @SA16 and I bring this up a lot. It's weird, because he rode the Sedins like crazy in VAN, but chose not to deploy his personnel like that here. Makes you think that AV never believed he had any horses to ride here.

Also love that TOI is an advanced stat.

It feels like AV was so traumatized by the loss to Boston that he turned his back on everything that made Vancouver successful. I don’t have any real hard data on that but he went from a system that loved cycling to one that absolutely wouldn’t do it, riding his top forwards to giving everyone about the same TOI, utilizing his offensive defensemen properly to not having Keith Yandle on the powerplay until his last half of a season with the team, etc

 

[Mac n Gs]

I wish shifts would be added as context for TOI, and I think it would help make what people are trying to say more communicable. Putting it into context that giving Buchnevich 3 more 5v5 shifts than normal and McLeod 3 fewer is a lot more palatable and easy to discuss.

On ADA, I really don’t think he’s as bad defensively as some make it seem. I think he suffers from some recall bias because he’s made some putrid defensive mistakes that really stick in someone’s mind. In the offensive end, he’s a really strong player and helps drive possession for us. I think his lack of scoring was an anomaly, and I’d expect to see his numbers get a boost this year. In fact, I’d expect to see his and Pionk’s scoring outputs flip moving forward because while I think Pionk has the tools to become a reliable defnder, I don’t think we’ll see that offense matriculate moving forward.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I think his lack of scoring was an anomaly, and I’d expect to see his numbers get a boost this year.

I don't think I've ever seen such a discrepancy between projected and actual numbers.

 

[silverfish]

DeAngelo will never put up points at a consistent pace at the NHL level. His shot isn't good enough to score goals, and he won't get enough PP time, at least here, to put up the assist numbers to boost his signal.

I honestly think he's a guy who bounces around the league as a "why was he only a third-pairing guy, and never anything more".

Nothing to base this on objectively but feeling.

 

[Blue Blooded]

DeAngelo will never put up points at a consistent pace at the NHL level. His shot isn't good enough to score goals, and he won't get enough PP time, at least here, to put up the assist numbers to boost his signal.

I honestly think he's a guy who bounces around the league as a "why was he only a third-pairing guy, and never anything more".

Nothing to base this on objectively but feeling.

His shot isn't elite, but he is skilled enough to put up a high ixGF60 without a high iCF60 - showing good shot selection and an ability to get into scoring positions. His shot assist numbers are borderline elite, so as long as he doesn't keep getting to play mostly with the bottom-6 like under AV I think he'll start piling up assists 5v5. The Rangers have the horses to put together an excellent PP2 unit this year and he should have plenty of opportunity to put up points on it.

 

[silverfish]

His shot isn't elite, but he is skilled enough to put up a high ixGF60 without a high iCF60 - showing good shot selection and an ability to get into scoring positions. His shot assist numbers are borderline elite, so as long as he doesn't keep getting to play mostly with the bottom-6 like under AV I think he'll start piling up assists 5v5. The Rangers have the horses to put together an excellent PP2 unit this year and he should have plenty of opportunity to put up points on it.

Yeah I don't necessarily disagree with anything you're saying, I just don't know if I have the confidence in this one specific player.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Yeah I don't necessarily disagree with anything you're saying, I just don't know if I have the confidence in this one specific player.

You could be right, but a guy like Ellis was still a marginal player who couldn't put up points at DeAngelo's age, who also had the top PPQB spot blocked by an established player (Weber).

 

[Mac n Gs]

I don't think I've ever seen such a discrepancy between projected and actual numbers.

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My eye test is #elite

Do you have one of these for Pionk?

 

[Blue Blooded]

My eye test is #elite

Do you have one of these for Pionk?

Of course!

 

[Mac n Gs]

Hmm, maybe there’s something else there with him too. That one is actually surprising.

I really am curious to see what happens with our shot share numbers this year. I’d expect them to get better because it’ll be hard to actually get worse, but I still think we’re going to hover around 20th.

I’d bet that the numbers are better in the second half too, and I’m honestly expecting us to be the 17-18 Coyotes. They had an awful start, better finish, and were still a top-5 lotto team. I think ending this season on a high note while still being top-5 in the lotto would be a successful “rebuild” season for me.

 

[silverfish]

I guess I really need to bake Tony D into the sim score model and run it on him, huh. Maybe I'll take a break from this xG that's ruining my life and do that.

 

[Irishguy42]

I don't think I've ever seen such a discrepancy between projected and actual numbers.

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These are good visualizations

 

[Blue Blooded]

These are good visualizations

I think they're borderline too messy at this point and I might ditch the radar chart - but they're basically my trademark so I'll stick with them for now.