The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

[Leetch3]

I can't name three RD in this organization better than Cody Franson.

and yet none of the analytic driven teams that are way smarter than the rangers seem to have any interest in him...so whats the catch? you've been saying this for years so its not a sample size issue. Is franson just a bad guy that teams don't want in their lockerroom? or are there other analytics that aren't as positive?

considering how cheap he is there has to be a reason that no one wants him...i have no idea what that answer is but have to think its more complicated than all teams are stupid lol

 

[silverfish]

and yet none of the analytic driven teams that are way smarter than the rangers seem to have any interest in him...so whats the catch? you've been saying this for years so its not a sample size issue. Is franson just a bad guy that teams don't want in their lockerroom? or are there other analytics that aren't as positive?

considering how cheap he is there has to be a reason that no one wants him...i have no idea what that answer is but have to think its more complicated than all teams are stupid lol

It's a fair question, but there aren't really any purely "analytically" driven teams in the league. So even if they like Franson because of his numbers someone in that room is complaining about his skating ability or lack thereof. But really without being in any of these rooms, I have no idea. Maybe these analytical teams are pretty confident they can get him on a PTO instead of a contract or something. Or perhaps teams just have higher priorities than their 7th D. Or they already have a guy in place to fill that role.

Could be a whole bunch of anything but I'll admit it is perplexing why this guy can never seem to find a steady job.

 

[Leetch3]

It's a fair question, but there aren't really any purely "analytically" driven teams in the league. So even if they like Franson because of his numbers someone in that room is complaining about his skating ability or lack thereof. But really without being in any of these rooms, I have no idea. Maybe these analytical teams are pretty confident they can get him on a PTO instead of a contract or something. Or perhaps teams just have higher priorities than their 7th D. Or they already have a guy in place to fill that role.

Could be a whole bunch of anything but I'll admit it is perplexing why this guy can never seem to find a steady job.

fair enough

and if i had to guess. his skating and today's game being about speed is the big reason he doesn't get the love

 

[silverfish]

fair enough

and if i had to guess. his skating and today's game being about speed is the big reason he doesn't get the love

I think his lack of skating ability is way overblown but, then I pose to you three questions:

1. Does his skating really matter if he's still putting up results?
2. Why haven't the world's best coaches in the NHL been able to improve his skating?
3. Imagine if a team improved his skating.

 

[Leetch3]

I think his lack of skating ability is way overblown but, then I pose to you three questions:

1. Does his skating really matter if he's still putting up results?
2. Why haven't the world's best coaches in the NHL been able to improve his skating?
3. Imagine if a team improved his skating.

i think #1 is the most important question. the game is become more and more about skating so being a fast skater definitely has its advantages but at some point you need to factor in results. you can't explain why he gets good results despite his skating but he does...no different than the flip side of a guy who is a great skater but stinks cause he doesn't get results

 

[Machinehead]

I have one response to the whole Cody Franson thing: Luke Schenn just got signed again.

 

[Leetch3]

I have one response to the whole Cody Franson thing: Luke Schenn just got signed again.

and that response tells us what exactly? the stats say franson is amazing and no teams want anything to do with him. the stats say schenn stinks and he always finds a job. so whats the conclusion we should be making?

 

[silverfish]

and that response tells us what exactly? the stats say franson is amazing and no teams want anything to do with him. the stats say schenn stinks and he always finds a job. so whats the conclusion we should be making?

A lot of NHL GMs still value the wrong things in players.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

A lot of NHL GMs still value the wrong things in players.

Or stats surfing doesn't work in the case of a garbage player like Franson?

 

[silverfish]

Or stats surfing doesn't work in the case of a garbage player like Franson?

Maybe.

 

[Leetch3]

glad we settled that LOL

 

[silverfish]

glad we settled that LOL

It's impossible to have a conversation surrounding these points because the ideologies are just too different. Which is fine. Everyone is allowed to analyze the game the way they choose to, and everyone is allowed to think that their opinion is right. I mean, if you didn't think your opinion was right, then you'd change your opinion.

I wish there was a lot less shitting on people for their opinion going on, or completely ignoring objectivity and focusing on subjectivity that may or may not exist, but, such is life on HF.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Or stats surfing doesn't work in the case of a garbage player like Franson?

Yeah I just don't see it or get it. Careeer 50% Shot Share guy who's played bottom pairing minutes most of his career. the relative numbers are good, but those are relative to complete dog shit.

Like I guess he's a serviceable bottom 2 defenseman but the implication that he's this hidden gem of an impact NHL defenseman and GMs just aren't as enlightened as the ones who can look up his CF Rel% on obscure hockey statistics sites puzzles me. (not to sound like a dick or nothing)

 

[silverfish]

Yeah I just don't see it or get it. Careeer 50% Shot Share guy who's played bottom pairing minutes most of his career. the relative numbers are good, but those are relative to complete dog ****.

Like I guess he's a serviceable bottom 2 defenseman but the implication that he's this hidden gem of an impact NHL defenseman and GMs just aren't as enlightened as the ones who can look up his CF Rel% on obscure hockey statistics sites puzzles me. (not to sound like a dick or nothing)

Your use of CF% raw is just plain bad. I don't understand how you can punish Franson for what his team is doing when he's not on the ice.

Also I guess I again need to say that no one is claiming that Franson is some elite-D and all NHL GMs are stupid. The argument is that he's proven he's at least a bottom-pairing guy and it's odd that he's never given an opportunity to be that player consistently.

But you feel free to twist and turn any point made here as you usually do and run to the main boards claiming that HFNYR thinks Cody Franson is an elite 1RD because he has a good relCA60. That's your prerogative.

 

[Machinehead]

Or stats surfing doesn't work in the case of a garbage player like Franson?

But garbage players help getting signed instead, some for a lot of money.

If you prefer Jack Johnson at 3.25 to Franson at league minimum, your player evaluation sucks. It doesn't matter what methods you're surfing.

He's better than some options that teams are spending money on. That's literally all anyone has ever said about Franson.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

But garbage players help getting signed instead, some for a lot of money.

If you prefer Jack Johnson at 3.25 to Franson at league minimum, your player evaluation sucks. It doesn't matter what methods you're surfing.

He's better than some options that teams are spending money on. That's literally all anyone has ever said about Franson.

I think they both suck and I wouldn’t want either for longer than a year. I’m all for signing a defensive black hole like Franson for a year to help the tank.

 

[silverfish]

I think they both suck and I wouldn’t want either for longer than a year. I’m all for signing a defensive black hole like Franson for a year to help the tank.

I'm really failing to understand how a player who:

Consistently suppresses relative to team:
Shot attempts against
Expected goals against
Actual goals against

Is a "defensive black hole". I'm trying to understand, I just don't. What's the proof besides: "He sucks and can't skate".

I want to understand. I really do. What am I missing?

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I'm really failing to understand how a player who:

Consistently suppresses relative to team:
Shot attempts against
Expected goals against
Actual goals against

Is a "defensive black hole". I'm trying to understand, I just don't. What's the proof besides: "He sucks and can't skate".

I want to understand. I really do. What am I missing?

Because he’s awful defensively and has been for much of his career. He’s slow, his positioning is laughable, his body play is abhorrent (his timing on hits and hit selection is so bad it’s not even funny), and his overall ability to read the play in his own zone is just flat out awful. Such a thing as an “outlier” exists, dude.

If you want to understand, you wouldn’t be questioning why a bum like Franson is widely considered pure garbage defensively. What you want to do is cling onto the notion, based merely on a spreadsheet, that he’s skmehow not.

This isn’t some crazy idea. He’s been known to be brutal in his own zone for years. And for good reason.

 

[silverfish]

Because he’s awful defensively and has been for much of his career. He’s slow, his positioning is laughable, his body play is abhorrent (his timing on hits and hit selection is so bad it’s not even funny), and his overall ability to read the play in his own zone is just flat out awful. Such a thing as an “outlier” exists, dude.

If you want to understand, you wouldn’t be questioning why a bum like Franson is widely considered pure garbage defensively. What you want to do is cling onto the notion, based merely on a spreadsheet, that he’s skmehow not.

I'd believe you if this showed up anywhere in his numbers, but it doesn't.

He could be an "outlier" if it was one-year of good play and years of bad play. But it's been consistently good, on a numbers standpoint, for thousands upon thousands of even strength minutes. If he was doing all the things you are saying, he'd be getting torched and he isn't.

 

[Machinehead]

Because he’s awful defensively and has been for much of his career. He’s slow, his positioning is laughable, his body play is abhorrent (his timing on hits and hit selection is so bad it’s not even funny), and his overall ability to read the play in his own zone is just flat out awful. Such a thing as an “outlier” exists, dude.

If you want to understand, you wouldn’t be questioning why a bum like Franson is widely considered pure garbage defensively. What you want to do is cling onto the notion, based merely on a spreadsheet, that he’s skmehow not.

This isn’t some crazy idea. He’s been known to be brutal in his own zone for years. And for good reason.

Ok, let's say he is brutal in his own end, because whatever.

It obviously doesn't have negative effects.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I'd believe you if this showed up anywhere in his numbers, but it doesn't.

He could be an "outlier" if it was one-year of good play and years of bad play. But it's been consistently good, on a numbers standpoint, for thousands upon thousands of even strength minutes. If he was doing all the things you are saying, he'd be getting torched and he isn't.

Ok. Let’s just play the game based on Excel.

See? You don’t care about the actual evaluation of the guy. You want to shoehorn the STATZZZZZ into it and dismiss everything else. It’s simply not an honest discussion.

 

[silverfish]

Ok. Let’s just play the game based on Excel.

See? You don’t care about the actual evaluation of the guy. You want to shoehorn the STATZZZZZ into it and dismiss everything else. It’s simply not an honest discussion.

Then back up your statements with video. Lots of video. That displays thousands of minutes and multiple data points.

Until then, I'm going to trust the last 2500 minutes of time on ice on paper more than your eye test. And don't take it personally, because I trust it more than my eye test, too.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Ok, let's say he is brutal in his own end, because whatever.

It obviously doesn't have negative effects.

He’s brutal in his own end because he’s brutal in his own end.

It “doesn’t have negative effects” even though the guy can’t find a team and was waived from a bad team like Chicago.

But go ahead and die on the hill of Cody Franson.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Then back up your statements with video. Lots of video. That displays thousands of minutes and multiple data points.

Until then, I'm going to trust the last 2500 minutes of time on ice on paper more than your eye test. And don't take it personally, because I trust it more than my eye test, too.

I can back it up with the views of basically everyone who watches him play and doesn’t evaluate based on a spreadsheet.

I have probably made more spreadsheets than you have since it’s literally what I do at work. Yet even I know I have to read the shit I’m working on in order to evaluate the math. I’ve found countless outliers this way.

It happens. Cody Franson sucks.

 

[Machinehead]

He’s brutal in his own end because he’s brutal in his own end.

It “doesn’t have negative effects” even though the guy can’t find a team and was waived from a bad team like Chicago.

But go ahead and die on the hill of Cody Franson.

There was no hill until you decided to come into the advanced stats thread and tell us advanced stats are bogus.

That was smart.