The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IX

[Machinehead]

I don’t know if this counts as advanced stats or not, but I’ve been trying for the past hour to find a certain stat, and no luck. I’m trying to find the percentage of shot attempts that get on net, specifically for defensemen, since they are usually shooting from further out. Whether the shot ends up being a save or goal doesn’t matter. @Machinehead I know you probably know where I can find this. If so, that would be great.

I don't know that there is anyone who actually tracks that. Would have to be done manually. Best bet would just be to look at SOG/iCF.

It must exist because data like that was released earlier in the season regarding Pionk, Shattenkirk, and ADA on the powerplay.

I wouldn't know where to get it, though.

It's entirely possible that whoever posted it was manually dividing shot attempts by shots on goal.

Maybe I can throw something together this week if I find time.

 

[Blue Blooded]

It must exist because data like that was released earlier in the season regarding Pionk, Shattenkirk, and ADA on the powerplay.

I wouldn't know where to get it, though.

It's entirely possible that whoever posted it was manually dividing shot attempts by shots on goal.

Maybe I can throw something together this week if I find time.

It was me doing it earlier. Here are the 5v5 rankings among defencemen with 400+ 5v5 minutes right now (175 players):

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	Shots/60	iCF/60	On net%
Aaron Ekblad	FLA	D	45	792.45	17.61	5.68	9.69	0.5862
Dustin Byfuglien	WPG	D	32	576.80	18.03	7.07	12.07	0.5857
Matt Niskanen	WSH	D	44	775.42	17.62	5.18	8.9	0.5820
Tony DeAngelo	NYR	D	29	454.50	15.67	6.07	10.43	0.5820
Trevor Daley	DET	D	31	468.97	15.13	4.09	7.04	0.5810
John Moore	BOS	D	41	664.97	16.22	5.05	8.75	0.5771
Kris Letang	PIT	D	44	854.67	19.42	7.44	13.2	0.5636
Erik Cernak	T.B	D	26	404.25	15.55	5.34	9.5	0.5621
Niklas Kronwall	DET	D	45	751.07	16.69	2.64	4.71	0.5605
Damon Severson	N.J	D	46	815.17	17.72	4.2	7.51	0.5593

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And the Rangers defencemen (McQuaid has <400 minutes at this point):

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	Shots/60	iCF/60	On net%
Tony DeAngelo	NYR	D	29	454.50	15.67	6.07	10.43	0.5820
Brady Skjei	NYR	D	43	760.75	17.69	4.18	7.89	0.5298
Neal Pionk	NYR	D	42	702.62	16.73	4.95	9.82	0.5041
Marc Staal	NYR	D	46	735.18	15.98	3.92	8.65	0.4532
Kevin Shattenkirk	NYR	D	38	579.33	15.25	5.07	11.6	0.4371
Fredrik Claesson	NYR	D	26	407.45	15.67	4.27	10.9	0.3917
Brendan Smith	NYR	D	31	459.45	14.82	3.26	8.88	0.3671

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And the ranking over the past two seasons (DeAngelo's Rangers career), 800 minute minimum:

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	Shots/60	iCF/60	On net%
Tony DeAngelo	NYR	D	61	14.77	6.79	10.92	0.6218
Zach Werenski	CBJ	D	123	18.05	6.32	11.35	0.5568
Trevor Daley	DET	D	108	16.08	4.04	7.33	0.5512
Erik Johnson	COL	D	109	18.43	6.45	11.74	0.5494
John Moore	BOS, N.J	D	122	16.60	5.24	9.66	0.5424
Trevor van Riemsdyk	CAR	D	121	14.66	5.24	9.67	0.5419
Christopher Tanev	VAN	D	85	16.03	2.69	4.98	0.5402
Anton Stralman	T.B	D	109	17.24	5.01	9.32	0.5376
Gustav Forsling	CHI	D	60	15.26	6.16	11.47	0.5371
Dan Girardi	T.B	D	121	14.47	4.42	8.26	0.5351

[TBODY]
[TD="align: right"]

901.18​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

2220.43​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1736.40​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

2009.13​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

2025.55​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1773.95​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1362.40​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1879.50​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

915.42​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1751.08​

[/TD]
[/TBODY]

 

[Rempe73]

It was me doing it earlier. Here are the 5v5 rankings among defencemen with 400+ 5v5 minutes right now (175 players):

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	Shots/60	iCF/60	On net%
Aaron Ekblad	FLA	D	45	792.45	17.61	5.68	9.69	0.5862
Dustin Byfuglien	WPG	D	32	576.80	18.03	7.07	12.07	0.5857
Matt Niskanen	WSH	D	44	775.42	17.62	5.18	8.9	0.5820
Tony DeAngelo	NYR	D	29	454.50	15.67	6.07	10.43	0.5820
Trevor Daley	DET	D	31	468.97	15.13	4.09	7.04	0.5810
John Moore	BOS	D	41	664.97	16.22	5.05	8.75	0.5771
Kris Letang	PIT	D	44	854.67	19.42	7.44	13.2	0.5636
Erik Cernak	T.B	D	26	404.25	15.55	5.34	9.5	0.5621
Niklas Kronwall	DET	D	45	751.07	16.69	2.64	4.71	0.5605
Damon Severson	N.J	D	46	815.17	17.72	4.2	7.51	0.5593

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And the Rangers defencemen (McQuaid has <400 minutes at this point):

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	Shots/60	iCF/60	On net%
Tony DeAngelo	NYR	D	29	454.50	15.67	6.07	10.43	0.5820
Brady Skjei	NYR	D	43	760.75	17.69	4.18	7.89	0.5298
Neal Pionk	NYR	D	42	702.62	16.73	4.95	9.82	0.5041
Marc Staal	NYR	D	46	735.18	15.98	3.92	8.65	0.4532
Kevin Shattenkirk	NYR	D	38	579.33	15.25	5.07	11.6	0.4371
Fredrik Claesson	NYR	D	26	407.45	15.67	4.27	10.9	0.3917
Brendan Smith	NYR	D	31	459.45	14.82	3.26	8.88	0.3671

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And the ranking over the past two seasons (DeAngelo's Rangers career), 800 minute minimum:

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	Shots/60	iCF/60	On net%
Tony DeAngelo	NYR	D	61	14.77	6.79	10.92	0.6218
Zach Werenski	CBJ	D	123	18.05	6.32	11.35	0.5568
Trevor Daley	DET	D	108	16.08	4.04	7.33	0.5512
Erik Johnson	COL	D	109	18.43	6.45	11.74	0.5494
John Moore	BOS, N.J	D	122	16.60	5.24	9.66	0.5424
Trevor van Riemsdyk	CAR	D	121	14.66	5.24	9.67	0.5419
Christopher Tanev	VAN	D	85	16.03	2.69	4.98	0.5402
Anton Stralman	T.B	D	109	17.24	5.01	9.32	0.5376
Gustav Forsling	CHI	D	60	15.26	6.16	11.47	0.5371
Dan Girardi	T.B	D	121	14.47	4.42	8.26	0.5351

[TBODY]
[TD="align: right"]

901.18​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

2220.43​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1736.40​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

2009.13​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

2025.55​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1773.95​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1362.40​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1879.50​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

915.42​

[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]

1751.08​

[/TD]
[/TBODY]

So over the last 2 seasons, DeAngelo is the best in the league in getting his shot on net? Of course amount d-men with 800+ minutes.

 

[Blue Blooded]

So over the last 2 seasons, DeAngelo is the best in the league in getting his shot on net? Of course amount d-men with 800+ minutes.

Yes, and by quite some margin. Though Werenski has played more than 2x the minutes.

There were some worrying indicators in Tony's metrics earlier this season, but that has ironed itself out at this point. Always looks good from the eye test in my book as well. At this point I probably consider him our best all-around defenceman, but I know I'm a little biased.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Seeing Danny Girardi on that list

I'm honestly not sure what to glean from that On-Net% stat. Seems like guys who shoot higher volumes will have a lower %. I still think SOG are the best way of looking at who the best guys are getting the puck on net.

It's like Alex Ovechkin and SH%. He's the best shooter and marksman in the league but his Sh% is close to average because he shoots so damn much.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Seeing Danny Girardi on that list

ha Girardi always had a sneaky accurate shot. It wasn't a hammer, but he got pucks on net when he had time and space. (time and space seemed to be a bit of an issue though)

 

[Blue Blooded]

Seeing Danny Girardi on that list

I'm honestly not sure what to glean from that On-Net% stat. Seems like guys who shoot higher volumes will have a lower %. I still think SOG are the best way of looking at who the best guys are getting the puck on net.

It's like Alex Ovechkin and SH%. He's the best shooter and marksman in the league but his Sh% is close to average because he shoots so damn much.

I mean Letang is 7th in Shots/60, Byfuglien 9th and DeAngelo 26th, so you're not necessarily someone who picks your spots (Kronwall and Severson seem to be though).

My previous regression analysis also indicates that for a defenceman a high iCF (individual shot attempts) but a low ixGF (expected goals from your individual shot attempts) is actually a negative for predicted performance, i.e. don't take shots just for the sake of it. This indicates that on-net% is at least of some importance to defencemen (a blocked shot is always a 0.00 xG, a missed one isn't though).

 

[Rempe73]

Seeing Danny Girardi on that list

I'm honestly not sure what to glean from that On-Net% stat. Seems like guys who shoot higher volumes will have a lower %. I still think SOG are the best way of looking at who the best guys are getting the puck on net.

It's like Alex Ovechkin and SH%. He's the best shooter and marksman in the league but his Sh% is close to average because he shoots so damn much.

That’s a good point. Although I do remember Girardi had a pretty decent shot, it makes sense that guys that take more shots will inevitably have a lower percentage of their shots hitting the net. Since those guys shoot from anywhere.

 

[Machinehead]

I actually liked Girardi in the offensive zone.

D and neutral zone not as much, but I liked him in the offensive zone.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I actually liked Girardi in the offensive zone.

D and neutral zone not as much, but I liked him in the offensive zone.

Maybe Girardi was the anti-Skjei, had good offensive instincts but ignored them to try to be a shutdown guy and sucked at it

 

[Machinehead]

Maybe Girardi was the anti-Skjei, had good offensive instincts but ignored them to try to be a shutdown guy and sucked at it

He played forward as late as bantam

 

[Blue Blooded]

Since being paired up in 5v5 situations (4 games ago) Staal-DeAngelo have outattempted the opposition 61-35 (63.54 CF%), high-danger scoring chances are 17-5 (77.27 HDCF%) and outscored them 6-2 (75.00 GF%). They've done this getting the most defensively geared deployment on the team among defencemen over this period with a 17-24 zone faceoff ratio (41.46). DeAngelo leads the team in 5v5 shot attempts over this period with 22 (Kreider is 2nd with 15).

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Anyone know of an easy or feasible way of answering questions like "How many times has Player X gone 5 straight games without a point in his career" and "What's the longest streak of consecutive games without a goal for Player Y" etc?

 

[mike14]

Anyone know of an easy or feasible way of answering questions like "How many times has Player X gone 5 straight games without a point in his career" and "What's the longest streak of consecutive games without a goal for Player Y" etc?

It's not the most efficient way, but hockey-reference has games logs so you can just click through them and look for big clumps of zeros. A 10 year career shouldn't take more than 5 minutes.
Issue comes if you want to compare it to others then it would get quite time consuming

 

[Filthy Dangles]

It's not the most efficient way, but hockey-reference has games logs so you can just click through them and look for big clumps of zeros. A 10 year career shouldn't take more than 5 minutes.
Issue comes if you want to compare it to others then it would get quite time consuming

Yeah thanks I know about that functionality of hockey reference, unfortunately it’s rather tedious to do for a bunch of players or if you want to find a streak and you don’t know who the player you are looking for is yet.

I’d probably need to scrape Hockey Ref or other source and do some coding I don’t know how to do in Excel or somethin to make what I’m looking for work

 

[SnowblindNYR]

If you guys ever feel bad about yourselves head over to the main boards and read some of their nonsense. Some people have no understanding, even conceptually of math. Some guy asked me condescendingly how old I was because I disagreed that the Lightning have a 1/31 shot of winning the cup. Someone else was a lot less belligerent about it but said they have a 50% chance (either they win it or they don't).

 

[Harbour Dog]

If you guys ever feel bad about yourselves head over to the main boards and read some of their nonsense. Some people have no understanding, even conceptually of math. Some guy asked me condescendingly how old I was because I disagreed that the Lightning have a 1/31 shot of winning the cup. Someone else was a lot less belligerent about it but said they have a 50% chance (either they win it or they don't).

I just got dumber.

 

[aufheben]

Found this awesome site that has some more obscure stats like types of penalties: IcyData » Penalties Dashboard

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I just got dumber.

The worst part is when I heard the 50%, for a second I thought maybe I was missing something and I was wrong, haha. But yeah, every team either wins it or doesn't, That's 1,550% chance someone will win it.

 

[Ola]

Seeing Danny Girardi on that list

I'm honestly not sure what to glean from that On-Net% stat. Seems like guys who shoot higher volumes will have a lower %. I still think SOG are the best way of looking at who the best guys are getting the puck on net.

It's like Alex Ovechkin and SH%. He's the best shooter and marksman in the league but his Sh% is close to average because he shoots so damn much.

Its of course still telling of something, but the decision making factor have such a huge impact on it that its hard to figure out to what extent a player actually is good at getting shots through/moving laterally to find open lanes. Like that vet D that only puts a shot on net once in a while when he gets a clean lane will be up there, like Girardi, so will the younger D that is really agile and finds a lot of open lanes.

Another big factor is that teams that press really hard pushes back the opponents and get their Ds open for point shots a lot more often.

I wonder if something can be done combining sh% and ability to get shots through in a formula. Players that only take those open lane shots won't have a high sh%. Players that takes a lot of screened shots will have a high (higher) sh% when they get through.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Its of course still telling of something, but the decision making factor have such a huge impact on it that its hard to figure out to what extent a player actually is good at getting shots through/moving laterally to find open lanes. Like that vet D that only puts a shot on net once in a while when he gets a clean lane will be up there, like Girardi, so will the younger D that is really agile and finds a lot of open lanes.

Another big factor is that teams that press really hard pushes back the opponents and get their Ds open for point shots a lot more often.

I wonder if something can be done combining sh% and ability to get shots through in a formula. Players that only take those open lane shots won't have a high sh%. Players that takes a lot of screened shots will have a high (higher) sh% when they get through.

Yes, Girardi's high efficiency is probably due to his incredibly small shot volume. Like you said, he's probably mostly attempting shots when there's a clear and vacant shooting lane. And it's not like he has the puck very much to begin with based on the other analytics and advanced statistics. It's why, like I've pointed out, this metric is flawed. It would be like looking at Alexander Ovechkin's SH% and someone who's more efficient and saying that player is a better shooter than #8.

 

[sbjnyc]

The worst part is when I heard the 50%, for a second I thought maybe I was missing something and I was wrong, haha. But yeah, every team either wins it or doesn't, That's 1,550% chance someone will win it.

If someone thinks that every team has a 1/31 chance of winning the cup then they should be able to win big money betting on the Senators and Wings at 500/1.

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

 

[SnowblindNYR]

If someone thinks that every team has a 1/31 chance of winning the cup then they should be able to win big money betting on the Senators and Wings at 500/1.

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

Yeah, and the worst part was the guy gave me a condescending "how old are you". To quote Metalica "arrogance and ignorance go hand in hand".

 

[Uncle Dru]

Calendar Year 2019 (15 GP):

CF% - 50.04 (15th)
SCF% - 49.92 (15th)
HDCF% - 52.61 (11th)

SV% - 88.53 (30th)
SCSV% - 80.11 (31st)
HDSV% - 72.63 (30th)

 

[Machinehead]

So Jack Eichel sort of...can I say sucks? I wanna say sucks.

Like, he doesn't suck. But he sucks. You know what I mean?

Yes, he scores a lot. However, I've always said I'm not a big usage guy unless the usage is absolutely ridiculous. His usage is absolutely ridiculous. The guy plays like 40 minutes a game and hasn't take a defensive zone faceoff since Midget-A. I'd be alarmed if he didn't have 72 points.

For a guy who couldn't tell you what his defensive zone looks like, his impact rates are a wet noodle:

Again, I'm not one to harp on usage to the point where I think it's the goal rather than the context, but isn't this sort of shocking for a guy eating the easiest minutes in the league?

@PlamsUnlimited