The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IX

[Leetch3]

I don't think the puck/jersey tracking will drastically change how we view players, but I think it will help clear up conceptions of data we already have, or at least add companion/supporting data to stuff we already know.

I’m thinking that the biggest impact will be consistency in the data. The data will be the data regardless of where the game is played cause it’s not subjective to humans tracking it

 

[Harbour Dog]

I’m thinking that the biggest impact will be consistency in the data. The data will be the data regardless of where the game is played cause it’s not subjective to humans tracking it

It is also going to be actual possession numbers now. Corsi, Fenwick, and the likes, are just proxies for that.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I’m more excited to get a sense of real quality of shot/danger of chance based on velocity, in-flight movement, exact (rather than eyeballed) position on the ice, and whatever else they may be able to detect.

 

[Harbour Dog]

I’m more excited to get a sense of real quality of shot/danger of chance based on velocity, in-flight movement, exact (rather than eyeballed) position on the ice, and whatever else they may be able to detect.

xGF% is going to be legit!

 

[Blue Blooded]

Moneypuck.com has released a new feature where they have attempted to calculate the shooting talent of NHL players. The methodology is explained here: MoneyPuck.com -About and How it Works

I decided to assemble the calculated shooting talent of the current New York Rangers (Kakko, Fox, Hajek, Lindgren and Andersson have too small samples):

Note: The calculation isn't necessarily biased against defencemen with big point shots. Weber is at +32% and Subban at +20%.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Going to continue shouting into the wind here.

Over the past 15 games (starting with the 5-7 loss to the Oilers on NYE) the Rangers underlying 5v5 play has improved by leaps and bounds. In that sample we are 8th in the league in 5v5 CF% (52.27) and 9th in xGF% (52.35). Our PP has been firing on all cylinders and we're 1st in 5v4 GF/60 with 13.52 in the sample.

However, our record is a surprising 7-8-0 in these games. Why?

Our PK has been pretty bad (25th with 8.99 GA/60), but we're an overall positive 13-11 on special teams (one SH goal conceded), it's 5v5 where we have been outscored 31-33 despite the good metrics. The answer superficially lies in goaltending and lower shooting percentage, but I'd say the primary blame lies with what has been our biggest problem all season: the bottom 6.

Let's look at the 5v5 metrics for our top 6 vs the bottom 6, with the top 6 being defined as "whenever at least one of Panarin or Zibanejad are on the ice".

	TOI	CF%	xGF%	GF%	GF	GA	Sh%	Sv%
Top 6	425.68	55.87	57.86	61.90	26	16	10.12	91.21
Bottom 6	308.90	47.31	45.12	22.73	5	17	3.45	90.34

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If we can integrate Kakko into the top 6 and use a third line of Lemieux-Chytil-Buchnevich* like I proposed on the day before the streak started, I think it could go a long way to solve the problem: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/168467035/

*Lemieux was injured at the time of the post, so Howden was listed in his stead.

 

[JimmyG89]

Thread on teams over their past 25 games, and I think to the surprise of some, the Rangers are actually playing really well over this stretch.

Funny enough, our save percentage has not been good during this time. Shesty coming in and giving elite level goaltending for 7 games has been quite the spark for the team. If they can keep this going, and even if Shesterkin and company give decent goaltending, they're going to win a bunch of games down the stretch if they don't make too many moves of the next two weeks.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Funny people saying that goaltending is a problem (outside Igor). All this time I was fed this romantic notion that Hank is this amazing goalie still that was did in by a horrible defense.

 

[romba]

Funny people saying that goaltending is a problem (outside Igor). All this time I was fed this romantic notion that Hank is this amazing goalie still that was did in by a horrible defense.

5 goals on 17 shots or so will dispel even the loftiest of fools

 

[JimmyG89]

Funny people saying that goaltending is a problem (outside Igor). All this time I was fed this romantic notion that Hank is this amazing goalie still that was did in by a horrible defense.

I'll say this about the goaltending prior to Shesterkin coming up: They plugged so many holes early in the season that the dam just broke open on Hank and Georgiev. Even with the workload split, the workload for them was both high in volume and high in quality. It's hard to sustain that kind of high end play.

Shesterkin is getting the advantage of the Rangers playing their best hockey of the season, while also being undeniably the best goalie on the roster. It's a good recipe for success.

 

[Raspewtin]

12th in CF% and 9th in xGf since January 1. really nice rebound from a mystically horrible first few months

this is more impressive when you consider we are usually icing at least 3 non NHL forwards, Marc Staal rotting corpse and Skjei having by far the worst year of his career.

 

[Ola]

This is surely old news, but I found it interesting, was a good professional article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...s-nhl-teams-there-are-better-stats-available/

Its what I have been saying forever, about at the time we lost against LAK in the finals, there was a shift in powers and teams started to be able to create more high danger scoring chances -- by risking possession, i.e. hurting their Corsi. Before that, if you just hanged on to the puck, drew penalties, threw it on the net when the other team was pinned down, odds were that you came out on top. But after it, if you take the puck to the net, really challenge Ds 1 on 1, fill up with Ds joining the rush, try to make small margin passes, you will score many goals, often more than 3 per night. The scale tilted over.

Its of course still a balance, and most certainly one we have erred on the wrong side of for long stretches. No doubt.

Its an interesting topic to follow, what really is the key here. What pays off best. Also, going a little deeper, it just seems like being able to do both would be far and away that best thing. I.e. literary to be able to take a lead and then protect that lead by keeping the puck within the team as much as possible.

Its really one of the things that makes hockey so interesting to follow. Its always changing. I started to follow hockey closely in the early 90s. There have been several fundamental changes in how the best teams play since then.

 

[Ola]

Funny people saying that goaltending is a problem (outside Igor). All this time I was fed this romantic notion that Hank is this amazing goalie still that was did in by a horrible defense.

One impression I got was that Hank was held high and Geo was measured in relation to Hank, meaning that as soon as Geo overtook Hank he was seen as being a top goalie.

I think that both Hank and Geo have been acceptable as NHLers this season, not more not less. Looking at the state we were in as a team -- we needed great goaltending, and I don't quite think we got that.

 

[Ola]

Thread on teams over their past 25 games, and I think to the surprise of some, the Rangers are actually playing really well over this stretch.

Funny enough, our save percentage has not been good during this time. Shesty coming in and giving elite level goaltending for 7 games has been quite the spark for the team. If they can keep this going, and even if Shesterkin and company give decent goaltending, they're going to win a bunch of games down the stretch if they don't make too many moves of the next two weeks.

Pretty great stuff.

I wonder what happens to the mid point over time during a season. Are teams creating more or less scoring chances?

 

[SnowblindNYR]

One impression I got was that Hank was held high and Geo was measured in relation to Hank, meaning that as soon as Geo overtook Hank he was seen as being a top goalie.

I think that both Hank and Geo have been acceptable as NHLers this season, not more not less. Looking at the state we were in as a team -- we needed great goaltending, and I don't quite think we got that.

We get great goaltending from Geo sometimes and sometimes we get shill awful goaltending from him, no in between.

 

[Blue Blooded]

This is surely old news, but I found it interesting, was a good professional article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...s-nhl-teams-there-are-better-stats-available/

Its what I have been saying forever, about at the time we lost against LAK in the finals, there was a shift in powers and teams started to be able to create more high danger scoring chances -- by risking possession, i.e. hurting their Corsi. Before that, if you just hanged on to the puck, drew penalties, threw it on the net when the other team was pinned down, odds were that you came out on top. But after it, if you take the puck to the net, really challenge Ds 1 on 1, fill up with Ds joining the rush, try to make small margin passes, you will score many goals, often more than 3 per night. The scale tilted over.

Its of course still a balance, and most certainly one we have erred on the wrong side of for long stretches. No doubt.

Its an interesting topic to follow, what really is the key here. What pays off best. Also, going a little deeper, it just seems like being able to do both would be far and away that best thing. I.e. literary to be able to take a lead and then protect that lead by keeping the puck within the team as much as possible.

Its really one of the things that makes hockey so interesting to follow. Its always changing. I started to follow hockey closely in the early 90s. There have been several fundamental changes in how the best teams play since then.

I really like the way we have been playing on offence in recent years, focusing on taking good shots rather than firing blindly at the net (much to the chagrin of Joe Micheletti). Unfortunately we haven't figured out how to do it without allowing the opposition to do the same to us, but at least it makes for entertaining games.

Whether you like it or not, the player that currently embodies Ranger hockey the most is Tony DeAngelo. High-octane chances at both ends with chirps and scraps between the whistles and never backing down from a physical confrontation.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Decided to look into the DeAngelo-Fox pairing again on a whim and found that there were five "super pairings" this season who received 100+ 5v5 minutes in purely offensive deployment (70+ OZ Faceoff%). Of these DeAngelo-Fox were the best by a mile.

Girard-Makar and especially Sandin-Barrie were flat out bad considering the deployment.

 

[Irishguy42]