The 5 tanks are back at it!

[Nicko999]

Honestly it is surprising how consistent those teams are season to season. Same bottom 5 for 3 years now.

22-23 season:

32- Ducks 58 pts
31- Jackets 59 pts
30- Hawks 59 pts
29- Sharks 60 pts
28- Habs 68 pts

23-24 season

32- Sharks 47 pts
31- Hawks 52 pts
30- Ducks 59 pts
29- Jackets 66 pts
28- Habs 76 pts

This season

I am not sure of that stats but it must be pretty rare to have the same 5 teams at the bottom for 3 years straight.

Click to read more...

 

[thedjpd]

Honestly it is surprising how consistent those teams are season to season. Same bottom 5 for 3 years now.

22-23 season:

32- Ducks 58 pts
31- Jackets 59 pts
30- Hawks 59 pts
29- Sharks 60 pts
28- Habs 68 pts

23-24 season

32- Sharks 47 pts
31- Hawks 52 pts
30- Ducks 59 pts
29- Jackets 66 pts
28- Habs 76 pts

This season
View attachment 932116

I am not sure of that stats but it must be pretty rare to have the same 5 teams at the bottom for 3 years straight.

Would be the best thing for the league is tanking was proven to be mostly ineffective, or at best 50/50. I think we got spoiled in the last 20 years by almost to near almost generational players being at #1 or #2 overall (Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, McDavid, MacKinnon, Kane) who can pull up bottom dwellers to respectability alone (and often, not even).

Even if they can, it takes many years - see: Ovechkin, McDavid. Tanking will hopefully become worth it for a team but only if there's a generational level player in it at the end - maybe, just maybe, it's hopeful that if you "just get an all-star" player, the purposeful tank may not fruitful enough to tank entire seasons for them (as that would be a 1/4 chance at best for the worst team in the league).

 

[Maitz]

I remember having 2-3 teams always at the bottom of the standings for few years in a row but now 3 years having the same bottom 5, not sure if it's a good thing

 

[bud12]

Rebuilding take time!!!

 

[Nogatco Rd]

crazy that you can look at the Blue Jackets’ schedule and spot the moment when their jinx thread was started

Dean Evason and the Columbus Blue Jackets

now have the second best goal differential in the metro. team is playing incredible hockey right now. Elvis has stopped 60 of his last 61 shots. (shutout tonight) the monahan-chinakhov-marchenko line is currently graded the #1 forward line in the entire league. jackets currently are scoring...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[tiburon12]

Would be the best thing for the league is tanking was proven to be mostly ineffective, or at best 50/50. I think we got spoiled in the last 20 years by almost to near almost generational players being at #1 or #2 overall (Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, McDavid, MacKinnon, Kane) who can pull up bottom dwellers to respectability alone (and often, not even).

Even if they can, it takes many years - see: Ovechkin, McDavid. Tanking will hopefully become worth it for a team but only if there's a generational level player in it at the end - maybe, just maybe, it's hopeful that if you "just get an all-star" player, the purposeful tank may not fruitful enough to tank entire seasons for them (as that would be a 1/4 chance at best for the worst team in the league).

Tanking has proven to be more unsuccessful than successful over course of the post-lockout era. MacKinnon and Ekblad are the only #1 picks since 08 #1 Stamkos to win the cup. ~10 years for each of them to win. For reference, Malkin/Crosby were drafted in 04/05 and won in 09, Toews/Kane drafted in 06/07 and won in 10. This kinda of turnaround doesn't happen anymore.

In that same window 2008-present window:

• #2 Barkov, Hedman, Doughty, Landeskog all won with their draft teams, Eichel and reinhart after trades, and Seguin on his draft team(but the Bruins didnt tank to get him).
• #3 Bogosian won with not his draft team and in a bottom pair role
• #4 Byram, Makar, Pietrangelo are the only winners with their draft team, Bennett won on his 2nd team. Critically, Makar and Byram were drafted 6 and 8 years, respectively, after Landeskog, who was 2 years AFTER Duchene and O'reilly were drafted.
• #5 Schenn bros are the only to win, both not on their draft teams.

Thats 17 players across 7 cup winning teams, over 16 years and 90 top 5 picks.

Point being, tanking isn't a guarantee for success and even if it is, the teams who have proved it works took a decade to make it happen AND got arguably their most important pieces years after tanking a top pick (Rantanen/Makar, Kucherov/Vasi, Tkachuk/Bob).

Ducks and Habs are a great example of why tanking is a risk, and as a Sharks fan i'm definitely nervous about the next few years. Nothing is close to a guarantee

 

[Crow]

To me it seems understandable that most of these teams are still this bad due to being early in their rebuilds and other circumstances.

I wonder if the same 5 might be the worst 5 next year too.

I am a little surprised at the ducks inability to get out of the gutter at this point, especially considering their goalie play. Will Anaheim add some decent vets from free agency? If not I am not sure when things start to click for them.

I don’t feel like I have the best read on the blue jackets next year. Are their prospects failing? People made Jricek out to be the second coming shortly after he was drafted and his stock has fallen pretty hard. He is still very young, and so are their other top guys. Too soon to say. Probably too soon to expect a major step forward.

I would expect the habs to take a step forward out of the bottom 5 next year. Kirby Dach looks terrible, that’s a bit of a blow.

Sharks and hawks look to be bottom 5 next year too. Fans of these teams will not be watching playoff hockey until ‘27-28 at the earliest.

 

[Joemoe]

Ah yes the chosen five, would be pretty crazy if this group finished in whatever order for a third season in a row.

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

How do the other major sports leagues compare in time to turn around a rebuild? More or less the same?

 

[Daishi]

Tanking has proven to be more unsuccessful than successful over course of the post-lockout era. MacKinnon and Ekblad are the only #1 picks since 08 #1 Stamkos to win the cup. ~10 years for each of them to win. For reference, Malkin/Crosby were drafted in 04/05 and won in 09, Toews/Kane drafted in 06/07 and won in 10. This kinda of turnaround doesn't happen anymore.

In that same window 2008-present window:

• #2 Barkov, Hedman, Doughty, Landeskog all won with their draft teams, Eichel and reinhart after trades, and Seguin on his draft team(but the Bruins didnt tank to get him).
• #3 Bogosian won with not his draft team and in a bottom pair role
• #4 Byram, Makar, Pietrangelo are the only winners with their draft team, Bennett won on his 2nd team. Critically, Makar and Byram were drafted 6 and 8 years, respectively, after Landeskog, who was 2 years AFTER Duchene and O'reilly were drafted.
• #5 Schenn bros are the only to win, both not on their draft teams.

Thats 17 players across 7 cup winning teams, over 16 years and 90 top 5 picks.

Point being, tanking isn't a guarantee for success and even if it is, the teams who have proved it works took a decade to make it happen AND got arguably their most important pieces years after tanking a top pick (Rantanen/Makar, Kucherov/Vasi, Tkachuk/Bob).

Ducks and Habs are a great example of why tanking is a risk, and as a Sharks fan i'm definitely nervous about the next few years. Nothing is close to a guarantee

You failed to discuss the definition of success. Winning the Cup is a terrible measurement. One team wins the Cup every year. Was every decision by every team which did not win a bad one? You're making up stats to support a false premise. You can imagine any while you're at it: "How many times did acquiring the best goalie in the league result in winning the Cup? See???!! It doesn't work most of the time!! We shouldn't try to get a good goalie!"

Tanking and drafting future super stars results in media buzz, ticket and merchandise sales, advertising, making the team more attractive for good coaches and players as a destination, points and wins, the list goes on.

If you actually did analysis and came to the conclusion that multiple very bad seasons actually do more harm to the franchise compared to the eventual upswing made possible by high first and 2nd round picks then you'd got something, but all you said is duh see they don't win the Cup that often. Duh, winning the cup requires hundreds of things to go right, not only getting a star player, despite it surely being a big help.

 

[TheSmokingMan]

I could see the Penguins falling into the bottom 5 this season.

 

[TheSmokingMan]

Nashville is also at risk of falling into the bottom 5. They actually have a worse points % than Anaheim.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

The Habs for years were among the teams without the most man-games lost to injuries.

 

[cowboy82nd]

Do you think all of these teams are "tanking"? Or do they just don't have the talent to compete right now? I don't think every team tanks.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Is perpetual mediocrity any more successful?

The Leafs tanked for Matthews and now get bounced from the playoffs early every season.

Seems like most teams in the league really have no more claim to success than say, the Habs...who were at least able to grab opportunity when it came knocking and ride the wave to the SC Finals a few years back.

 

[Cancuks]

You can tank all you want but if you keep blowing your picks on the busts then there's never going to be any improvement. Even if the players are late bloomers it could take 7 or 8 years and by then they're likely on their 3rd or 4th team by then. The thing in common with these teams, however, is that their GMs think they are smarter than the rest of the league and draft guys that would've dropped several spots.

 

[TheDoldrums]

How do the other major sports leagues compare in time to turn around a rebuild? More or less the same?

NFL can be very quick, there’s typically a lot of parity there and a big upgrade at QB alone can radically change a teams fortunes.

MLB probably not too far off as typically you need years of building up the farm team before big improvements are made. However they do have a cheat code, with no salary cap if ownership decides to spend like crazy and buy a bunch of top free agents, things can turn around very quickly (like the current Mets)

NBA probably similar as well. There are teams like the Detroit Pistons who are basically the Buffalo Sabres of that league. Having star players is so important that when you get them, you usually stay good for awhile. Conversely if you don’t have them, there’s really no path to respectability.

 

[All Mod Cons]

There should be 2 divisions with promotion and relegation.

 

[Stickpucker]

 

[WarriorofTime]

I would say a big part of it is there's a large number of teams out there that are rather content to shoot the middle. Looking at last couple of seasons, nobody is really choosing to consciously enter the tank that hadn't been doing so in the 2022-23 season (with a top of the line draft that would make a tank that particularly year more appealing than usual).

Tanking over long run generally proves most reliable as far as laying the foundation for a future multi-year cup window/potential cups but the blips here and there in terms of draft talent spread will at times make the just continually make do with what you got, spend your cap space, always be trying to improve be a more impactful short-term strategy.

Right now, we are in a period where young talent is not coming in and lighting the world on fire off the bat. This has been true for about 6 or 7 draft classes now. I think part of that at least is just how strong the era before them were, the millennial/GenZ border years. Even a team like Anaheim that looks very "complete" with their young players that they've drafted high recently still hasn't been able to make that next jump just yet.

I made a post in March of 2023 about how strong the 25-27 year olds (players in their prime) were at the time. While easy to dismiss off "well yeah, they're in their prime", I think that particular cohort is filled with players that hit the ground running with a big impact right off the jump, continued getting better, and now are likely to greedily hoard the "top players in the League" spots into older years.

What remains to be seen is when that group ages out from being top players, will it be this next gen a bit younger that fills in, or will we see a new wave of drafted prospects coming in and looking like the best players in the League right off the jump?

To the thread's point, I think the stupidest thing to do as a Tank Team is decide an arbitrary amount of time has passed and deciding "ok, no more tanking". In an ideal world, a host of graduated prospects are coming in and making an impact and pushing the team up the standings without outside reinforcements. Otherwise, you're costing yourself draft capital/attempts at landing an elite player without much real benefit in terms of some vague 'learning to play winning hockey' even though most of the players aren't even on the team in 2-3 years. The thing though is that players are drafted when they are 18. But they won't really start making that pushing a team to the playoffs organically until the bulk of them are around 22-23, so even if your drafting DOES go very well, it's going to take a lot of time in between.

 

[Ezpz]

That's what happens when these teams delayed rebuilding forever and the past few drafts have had zero immediate impact players. There was no Crosby or ovi to turn things around. Bedard clearly isn't generational. Slaf still needs work. Celebrini isn't an immediate difference maker.

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

i knew we werent making playoffs but wasnt expecting us to be this bad oh well another top 5 pick i guess

 

[Richard]

It's because none of those teams have actually, truly, committed to a rebuild and still ice teams of overpaid, overvalued, and underperforming veterans. Those teams all missed the boat on when to start their rebuild.

 

[therocket9]

That's what happens when these teams delayed rebuilding forever and the past few drafts have had zero immediate impact players. There was no Crosby or ovi to turn things around. Bedard clearly isn't generational. Slaf still needs work. Celebrini isn't an immediate difference maker.

Bedard is in his second year.....Mackinnon had 53 points in his 4th year

 

[Crazy8oooo]

Honestly it is surprising how consistent those teams are season to season. Same bottom 5 for 3 years now.

22-23 season:

32- Ducks 58 pts
31- Jackets 59 pts
30- Hawks 59 pts
29- Sharks 60 pts
28- Habs 68 pts

23-24 season

32- Sharks 47 pts
31- Hawks 52 pts
30- Ducks 59 pts
29- Jackets 66 pts
28- Habs 76 pts

This season
View attachment 932116

I am not sure of that stats but it must be pretty rare to have the same 5 teams at the bottom for 3 years straight.

Hey, improvement by the Ducks! 32 to 30 to 28. On the upswing.

On a serious note, I do think the team was expecting growth from the young players that just isn’t happening. Probably time for a coaching change.

Edit: also does’t help that some teams, like my Ducks, have never been able to win a first overall. Getting a #1 surely helps.