The 2024-2025 Roster Thread

[ValJamesDuex]

Key Sabres prospects have stood out to start the Amerks season

The Amerks dominated with a 6-1 win against the Monsters last night as some of the top prospects have stood out in the AHL to start the season.

www.expectedbuffalo.com

 

[Dubi Doo]

Key Sabres prospects have stood out to start the Amerks season

The Amerks dominated with a 6-1 win against the Monsters last night as some of the top prospects have stood out in the AHL to start the season.

www.expectedbuffalo.com

I really, really hope we hit on Wahlberg. He'd fit in well with what Ruff preaches.

 

[jc17]

That's an excellent example of what I'm trying to bring up. Again, I believe Cozens has struggled so far.

But McLeod is doing quite bad with giveaways: 7 on the year with only a single takeaway. Second on the team behind only Quinn. Cozens is one of the better Sabres for G/T 1 giveaway for 1 takeaways (all numbers 5v5).

Buffalo in general has struggled with giveaways

This is no fault of anyone. Those goals, and they've been timely, loom very large in our memory. The likelihood that McLeod suddenly explodes for 40 goals (almost 20 above expected) seems slim to me. Even keeping up his pace to get 20 goals would be a very marked improvement.

I haven't looked extensively, but the give/take stats have never seem to hold a ton of weight for me. I think there's just too much of a style thing in play. Also maybe too much subjectivity in the recording of them

https://x.com/i/web/status/1848881770478940435

 

[TageGod]

I really, really hope we hit on Wahlberg. He'd fit in well with what Ruff preaches.

Greenway needs a contract after this season? He could be the long-term Greenway replacement. I personally think Greenway is a bit too slow (acceleration) with offensive hands of stone. Idk what to think of Greenway really. Too slow for 4th line, not enough skill for 3rd line, but yet can perform decently on most lines with his size.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Greenway needs a contract after this season? He could be the long-term Greenway replacement. I personally think Greenway is a bit too slow (acceleration) with offensive hands of stone. Idk what to think of Greenway really. Too slow for 4th line, not enough skill for 3rd line, but yet can perform decently on most lines with his size.

Greenway is a very movable player. If they choose to give him 3 or 4 years, and then he’s redundant in 2, that will be easily traded.

 

[Fjordy]

We'll need some place for our prospects.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I haven't looked extensively, but the give/take stats have never seem to hold a ton of weight for me. I think there's just too much of a style thing in play. Also maybe too much subjectivity in the recording of them

https://x.com/i/web/status/1848881770478940435

Totally agree. Hits/TakeAway/Giveaway are suspect stats. As a trend they can considered.

 

[Jacob582]

For ELCs signed at 18 it’s 3 yrs of the ELC unless they hit 160 g as a skater. Peterka just went over 160, Quinn is around 112.

Quinn signed his ELC when he was 19, so he gets 4 years or 160 games.

Puckpedia showing he is eligible for waivers. What am I missing?

 

[Jim Bob]

Quinn signed his ELC when he was 19, so he gets 4 years or 160 games.

Puckpedia showing he is eligible for waivers. What am I missing?

https://puckpedia.com/player/jack-quinn

This is Quinn's 5th season pro.

It seems like we need @dotcommunism to weigh in.

 

[DJN21]

https://puckpedia.com/player/jack-quinn

This is Quinn's 5th season pro.

It seems like we need @dotcommunism to weigh in.

this dude is like Beetlejuice lol....

 

[DJN21]

We'll need some place for our prospects.

you mean we can't just find spots for Helenius, Kulich, Rosen, Wahlberg? Not to mention Polpatov etc? Should've traded more than just Savoie last off -season. Maybe they still will?? Hopefully they don't get bent over a barrel this time like they did with Savoie however (no offense to a great start for Mcleod)

 

[BFLO]

doesn't the final xgf% number get spit out by a regression that accounts for zone starts and quality of opponent, among many other things?

My main issue with its use here is that its predictive value is at its best once the sample size has reached ~half a season, the number means half as much after 8 games as it will in january

I could be wrong on either of these things, i last read papers on xgf% in like 2018

McLeod is 5x the player Cozens is right now for us

Isn’t xGF% supposed to account for deployment and linemates, QoC, that type of thing?

xGF/xGA is much simpler than that.

It assigns a value to every unblocked shot attempt based on the distance and angle to the net with the assumption of average shooting and goalie performance.

For example, a shot 5 feet from the net is worth more than a shot 20 feet from the net.

A shot from the goal line 10 ft from the net with a 1% angle to the net is worth less than a shot 10 ft from the net with a 25% angle.

Is xGF good at predicting the actual number of goals scored in any individual game? Not really. There's way too much variance in shooting skill, goalie skill and just dumb luck, especially with stuff like deflections and bounces. There's also the issue of NHL data quality. The shot attempt locations aren't always accurate from the score keepers.

Even with all of it's faults xGF/xGA is good at telling you who was better at generating/suppressing shot attempts from dangerous areas of the ice.

 

[Djp]

https://puckpedia.com/player/jack-quinn

This is Quinn's 5th season pro.

It seems like we need @dotcommunism to weigh in.

Look at Mitts he was signed out of college. Because of a fall bday his signing age was 20. He played 17/18 right out of college but only 7 games. 18/19 and 19/20 were ELC yrs. 20/21 was a 2 way contract where he was exempt waivers until he hit thr number of nhl gamrs.

Assuming they dont burns his contract in a sliding year-- they are waiver exempt on the ELC throughout unitl hits 160 nhl games.

We'll need some place for our prospects.

Sabres do have a bunch of prosprct and I font ser all playing kn the Sabres.

How I look at the roster.....this is a framework and not debating the players in it.

I see till summer 2030 (5 more yrs after this season)

tage, cozens, tuch on the team
Ostlund, wahlberg, and Helenius on ELC/ bridges till 2030
Peterka
McLeod is young enough to be on the team during this period.

Thats 8 of 12....

Then you have Quinn, benson, kulich, poltapov, Rosen, krebs


Some will nerd to get trsdrd to restock the shelves


I see poltapove coming over next year and play rochester, then 26/27 possibly being on Sabres or sit time.

Summer 2027 you have a bunch of decisions with contracts with ELC and bridges ending in the next fee years thry decide on trading some.
For the 4th line....
I see greenway could be resigned and over the years becoming a 4th liner. Malenstyn could fill the other 4th line role for a few yrs after his contract. Thus a 4C is needdd.

 

[Diaspora]

https://puckpedia.com/player/jack-quinn

This is Quinn's 5th season pro.

It seems like we need @dotcommunism to weigh in.

Someone on another thread was saying that Quinn is still waiver-exempt because he hasn't played enough NHL games. I think the number was 160. Peterka has more, but Quinn has lost time to injuries.

Whatever the milestone is, he's expected to pass it mid-season.

 

[Dingo44]

Do you make your bed every morning?