Prospect Info: The 2023 NHL Entry Draft Thread

[ps241]

I think he's got some star qualities, in the Marchand mold (without the shenanigans). I'd be very happy if the Jets can acquire a pick or maneuver picks to find a way to draft him.

Its interesting I read the review on Benson in Black book and they dropped him from #5 in March to #12 in their final ranking. Now in fairness Mark Edwards said #4 to #12 is interchangeable on his list. They love Benson but they have concerns his size and fearless/competitive style is susceptible to injures.

I think there is zero chance he falls to us anyways but always fun to study up on the prospects.

 

[Whileee]

Its interesting I read the review on Benson in Black book and they dropped him from #5 in March to #12 in their final ranking. Now in fairness Mark Edwards said #4 to #12 is interchangeable on his list. They love Benson but they have concerns his size and fearless/competitive style is susceptible to injures.

I think there is zero chance he falls to us anyways but always fun to study up on the prospects.

If the main concern is injuries because of play style, that doesn't seem all that reasonable. I'm not sure there is any evidence that a player of Benson's stature is more likely to be injured. Lots of players Benson's size have played long, healthy careers (St. Louis comes to mind). Laine has missed as many games as Ehlers.

But you're right, he's not falling to #18, regardless.

 

[MardyBum]

Just saw Neal Pionk's brother Aaron is draft eligible this year

 

[gojetsgo]

Just saw Neal Pionk's brother Aaron is draft eligible this year

I think he's been passed over twice now, I remember wondering if we take him with a late pick last year

 

[MardyBum]

I think he's been passed over twice now

Yeah just saw, a US double overager though? We love those guys.

 

[ps241]

If the main concern is injuries because of play style, that doesn't seem all that reasonable. I'm not sure there is any evidence that a player of Benson's stature is more likely to be injured. Lots of players Benson's size have played long, healthy careers (St. Louis comes to mind). Laine has missed as many games as Ehlers.

But you're right, he's not falling to #18, regardless.

Black Book was really interesting this year. I like some of the changes they made but one thing I noticed and I am not sure why but especially in the top 16-18 projected or ranked picks in the scouting comments they were really fixated on “this guy is going to get you to the playoffs (but might wilt) vs this guy isn’t necessarily a regular season player but you will win with him in the playoffs type”. Lots more comments about regular season types vs guys built for the playoffs types.

 

[Whileee]

Black Book was really interesting this year. I like some of the changes they made but one thing I noticed and I am not sure why but especially in the top 16-18 projected or ranked picks in the scouting comments they were really fixated on “this guy is going to get you to the playoffs (but might wilt) vs this guy isn’t necessarily a regular season player but you will win with him in the playoffs type”. Lots more comments about regular season types vs guys built for the playoffs types.

Agree. They are really high on Barlow. Sounds like a forward that would add a nice dimension to the Jets' forwards. He's generally ranked around #18, but the Black Book has him at #6 and a couple of NHL scouts that they quoted said they didn't see him lasting beyond #10.

 

[Daximus]

Black Book was really interesting this year. I like some of the changes they made but one thing I noticed and I am not sure why but especially in the top 16-18 projected or ranked picks in the scouting comments they were really fixated on “this guy is going to get you to the playoffs (but might wilt) vs this guy isn’t necessarily a regular season player but you will win with him in the playoffs type”. Lots more comments about regular season types vs guys built for the playoffs types.

Product of the times. Size only matters in the playoffs until it doesn't. For every hard nosed Tkachuk or Stone who excels there is a Marchessault and Kane who is soft as butter but lights it up when it matters.

 

[ps241]

Product of the times. Size only matters in the playoffs until it doesn't. For every hard nosed Tkachuk or Stone who excels there is a Marchessault and Kane who is soft as butter but lights it up when it matters.

Couldn't agree more.

Agree. They are really high on Barlow. Sounds like a forward that would add a nice dimension to the Jets' forwards. He's generally ranked around #18, but the Black Book has him at #6 and a couple of NHL scouts that they quoted said they didn't see him lasting beyond #10.

Yea it seems like BB has a tier that is 4-12

 

[Huffer]

Black Book was really interesting this year. I like some of the changes they made but one thing I noticed and I am not sure why but especially in the top 16-18 projected or ranked picks in the scouting comments they were really fixated on “this guy is going to get you to the playoffs (but might wilt) vs this guy isn’t necessarily a regular season player but you will win with him in the playoffs type”. Lots more comments about regular season types vs guys built for the playoffs types.

I really like HP.com as well.

Looks like they are SUPER high on Danil But. MUCH higher than pretty much every other scouting ranking. It's interesting because usually there are one or two other lists that sometimes have the same outlier higher than most, but in this case, it seems like they are the only one. They must really see him with a lot more room to grow and with a solid chance to get there. They must love the tools.

Oliver Bonk seems high on their list as well compared to others. Especially before Danielson (who for some reason I am fixated on), Ritchie, Stenberg, Yager, Willander, Moore, and ASP. Decent numbers in his D season and a RHD with a little size though.

 

[ps241]

I really like HP.com as well.

Looks like they are SUPER high on Danil But. MUCH higher than pretty much every other scouting ranking. It's interesting because usually there are one or two other lists that sometimes have the same outlier higher than most, but in this case, it seems like they are the only one. They must really see him with a lot more room to grow and with a solid chance to get there. They must love the tools.

Oliver Bonk seems high on their list as well compared to others. Especially before Danielson (who for some reason I am fixated on), Ritchie, Stenberg, Yager, Willander, Moore, and ASP. Decent numbers in his D season and a RHD with a little size though.

But and Simashev In the top 10 both Edwards and Berube love both the Big Russians.

Edwards clearly really liked Bonk from the get go and it sounds like other scouts started liking him more by the end of the season.

We should get a reasonably asset with our first pick.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Jason Bukala's personal ranking is up at sportsnet. looks like a good read. tried linking directly but it went to a media player.




16. Gabe Perreault, LW
17. Oliver Moore, C
18. Matthew Wood, C (has some good skating scores; that's me in the mud)
19. Nate Danielson, C
20. Braden Yager, C
21. Andrew Cristall, LW
22. David Edstrom, C


Pretty sweet list of players around our pick.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Reading through that ranking into the second round, if there's a draft to rebuild with, this might be it.

 

[Whileee]

Reading through that ranking into the second round, if there's a draft to rebuild with, this might be it.

Agree.

If the Jets trade PLD to the Habs, I wonder if they would try to get the #31 and #37 picks. Together, they probably have equivalent value to the original Florida pick placement at #17.

 

[None]

2023 NHL DRAFTe model

Last year we introduced our DRAFTe model, aiming, like many of our stats colleagues, at giving a ranking ahead of the NHL Draft.

thibaudchatel.substack.com

Interesting draft model based on the author's NHLe. I personally think their NHLe probably overrates KHL scoring a bit. I'm guessing the small sample of players that actually cross over to the NHL combined with a year where there's almost no Europeans and fewer Canadians in the KHL probably affected that a bit.

The Tableau URL at the bottom of the article has a ranking beyond the top 32 shown in the article and a player card tool that looks like this:

I think most interesting is looking at how a prospect has trended over the span of the tracked seasons in the chart on the bottom left of the player cards.

 

[bustamente]

 

[surixon]

2023 NHL DRAFTe model

Last year we introduced our DRAFTe model, aiming, like many of our stats colleagues, at giving a ranking ahead of the NHL Draft.

thibaudchatel.substack.com

Interesting draft model based on the author's NHLe. I personally think their NHLe probably overrates KHL scoring a bit. I'm guessing the small sample of players that actually cross over to the NHL combined with a year where there's almost no Europeans and fewer Canadians in the KHL probably affected that a bit.

The Tableau URL at the bottom of the article has a ranking beyond the top 32 shown in the article and a player card tool that looks like this:

I think most interesting is looking at how a prospect has trended over the span of the tracked seasons in the chart on the bottom left of the player cards.

It would not shock me to see us take Cristall if he's on the board. He screams TNSE pick. They love there cerebral forwards.

 

[None]

It would not shock me to see us take Cristall if he's on the board. He screams TNSE pick. They love there cerebral forwards.

I view him as a different flavour of prospect in the Perfetti mould and I like Perfetti quite a bit.

Here's a quote from Corey Pronman's draft mailbag responding to a question about which "undersized" players ranked in the 1st round are least at risk of falling

I’ve heard a lot of NHL executives noting how small the projected top two rounds are and how they think a lot of public lists are way too full of small forwards. I think draft day is going to look a lot more like the league than a bunch of 5-foot-10 guys going top 40.

GMs apparently lie to the media a lot this time of year though so who knows if he's there at 18 or not

 

[surixon]

I view him as a different flavour of prospect in the Perfetti mould and I like Perfetti quite a bit.

Here's a quote from Corey Pronman's draft mailbag responding to a question about which "undersized" players ranked in the 1st round are least at risk of falling


GMs apparently lie to the media a lot this time of year though so who knows if he's there at 18 or not

Yeah he's Perfetti esc. I wouldn't have any issue taking him.

 

[Huffer]

Yeah he's Perfetti esc. I wouldn't have any issue taking him.

Isn't the knock that he has effort and consistency issues? I don't know, that's just what I think I've read.

 

[surixon]

Isn't the knock that he has effort and consistency issues? I don't know, that's just what I think I've read.

I haven't done a super deep dive on him so I'm not sure about the effort thing. I don't think he's as good a prospect as Cole at the same stage but there are some similarities in terms of style.

 

[None]

Isn't the knock that he has effort and consistency issues? I don't know, that's just what I think I've read.

I think his poor skating is mistaken for poor effort/poor compete level and I don't even necessarily think his skating is as bad as it's made out to be.

 

[Huffer]

I haven't done a super deep dive on him so I'm not sure about the effort thing. I don't think he's as good a prospect as Cole at the same stage but there are some similarities in terms of style.

I think his poor skating is mistaken for poor effort/poor compete level and I don't even necessarily think his skating is as bad as it's made out to be.

Both of you could be right, honestly I can't comment on him as I don't have the 1st hand knowledge. Just somethings I think I've read.

 

[ps241]

Have to admit I came away from the Black Book feeling a bit less pumped about this draft. Maybe I am alone but it felt like Mark and Jerome (the two main scouts) seemed a bit more down on everyone outside the top 3 picks. I don’t mean really down but almost all the guys after that had some sort of a flaw that left me wanting.

They only have 19 players graded out at A which is what they define as 1st round talent. I would have to go back but that would make this one of the more shallow drafts depth wise in a while based on their assessment. Mark also said “it’s not their favorite A group ever”.

 

[None]

Yeah he's Perfetti esc. I wouldn't have any issue taking him.

The author of the DRAFTe model posted above added a comparison tool to his tableau page

Perfetti vs Cristall

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/thibaud.chatel/viz/NHLDRAFTe2023/DraftNHL23