Did anyone think Alfredsson was a Hall of Famer at any point during his first decade in the league?
I always saw him as a borderline all-star, similar to some of the other captains of the Canadian teams like Ryan Smyth and Saku Koivu
Smyth age 24 - 33:
230 goals, 523 points in 636 games, or 67 points per 82 games
Koivu age 22 - 32
139 goals, 490 points in 568 games, or 71 points per 82 games
Alfredsson age 23 - 31
219 goals, 568 points in 629 games, or 74 points per 82 games
It wasn't until the age of 33 when he found himself on a line with 22 year old Spezza and 25 year old Heatley that his production resembled that of a perennial all-star
Alfredsson only finished in the top 10 in PPG twice during his career, and both times Spezza and Heatley were in the top 10 as well
2006
Alfredsson (3rd), Spezza (4th), Heatley (8th)
2007
Spezza (5th), Heatley (6th), Alfredsson (15th)
2008
Alfredsson (4th), Spezza (6th), Heatley (10th)
Daniel Alfredsson peaked in scoring after age 30 for several reasons, only one of which was playing with all-star linemates.
First, the post-lockout style of hockey was a better fit for Alfredsson, especially when it came to defensive play. With more open-ice play and less grinding along the boards, his skating was more valuable and his average at best size was no longer a weakness.
Second and more importantly, Alfredsson played for Jacques Martin in his 20s. Martin spread the ice time around more than most coaches of his era, leading to team success but not big individual numbers. From 1999-00 to 2003-04, Alfredsson was the best forward on one of the very best offensive teams of the era, a team that was absolutely stacked at RW. Because of his team situation and coach, he played fewer minutes than other star RWs, and generally with weaker linemates.
Here's the deployment Daniel Alfredsson received from 1999-00 to 2003-04, compared to the all-star RWs of this era. He did very well to score a point per game while playing under 20 minutes/game with second liners.
1999-00
Alfredsson: 18:45 ATOI/game, playing with Vinny Prospal at C and Rob Zamuner/Joe Juneau/Shawn McEachern at LW.
Jagr: 23:12 ATOI/game, playing with some combination of Jan Hrdina/Martin Straka/Kip Miller/Robert Lang.
Bure: 24:23 ATOI/game, playing with Viktor Kozlov at C and Ray Whitney at LW.
2000-01
Alfredsson: 18:47 ATOI/game, playing with Alexei Yashin at C and Shawn McEachern at LW.
Jagr: 23:19 ATOI/game, playing with Mario Lemieux/Jan Hrdina/Kevin Stevens
Bure: 26:52 ATOI/game, playing with Marcus Nilson/Viktor Kozlov/Greg Adams/Rob Niedermayer
For these two seasons, Jagr and Bure received far more ice time than Alfredsson. He really didn't have a chance at an RW spot. Alfredsson did have legit 1st line linemates for this one season when he played with Yashin and McEachern.
2001-02
Alfredsson: 20:19 ATOI/game, playing with Todd White at C and Magnus Arvedson at LW.
Iginla: 22:22 ATOI/game, playing with Craig Conroy at C and Dean McAmmond at LW.
Guerin: 20:45 ATOI/game, playing with Jozef Stumpel/Joe Thornton/Martin Lapointe
Iginla didn't have great linemates but he still played over 2 minutes/game more than Alfredsson. Guerin had much better playmaking support than Alfredsson and was really not on the same level as a player.
2002-03
Alfredsson: 19:32 ATOI/game, playing with Todd White at C and Magnus Arvedson at LW
Bertuzzi: 20:34 ATOI/game, playing with Brendan Morrison at C and Markus Naslund at LW
Hejduk: 19:50 ATOI/game, playing with Peter Forsberg at C and Alex Tanguay at LW
Hard to compete with the West Coast Express and peak Peter Forsberg as linemates. Alfredsson played with average at best second liners while the RW all-star spots went to the RWs of the top two lines in the league.
2003-04
Alfredsson: 19:24 ATOI/game, playing with Todd White/Bryan Smolinski at C and Peter Schaefer at LW
St. Louis: 20:35 ATOI/game, playing with Vincent Lecavalier at C and Ruslan Fedetenko at LW
Jarome Iginla: 21:18 ATOI/game, playing with Craig Conroy/Oleg Saprykin/Steve Reinprecht/Matthew Lombardi/Dean McAmmond
Again, Alfredsson played 2 minutes less per game than Iginla, and had significantly worse linemates than Marty St. Louis.
When Jacques Martin left and Bryan Murray entered the picture, Alfredsson finally got typical star forward ice time and got to play with other star forwards.
2005-06
Alfredsson: 21:41 ATOI/game, playing with Jason Spezza at C and Dany Heatley at LW
Jagr: 22:05 ATOI/game, playing with Michael Nylander at C and Martin Straka at LW
Cheechoo: 19:57 ATOI/game, playing with Joe Thornton at C and Nils Ekman at LW
2006-07
Alfredsson: 21:35 ATOI/game, playing about half the year with Spezza at C and Heatley at RW, and about half the year with Mike Fisher at C and Peter Schaefer at LW
Heatley: 21:02 ATOI/game, playing with Spezza at C and Alfredsson/Eaves/Kelly at RW
St. Louis: 24:09 ATOI/game, playing with Vincent Lecavalier at C and Vinny Prospal at LW
Heatley was voted the 1st team RW, but Alfredsson showed he was the better player in the playoffs.
After this year Ottawa hired John Paddock as the coach, who rode the top line even harder than Murray.
2007-08
Alfredsson: 22:17 ATOI/game, playing with Jason Spezza at C and Dany Heatley at RW
Iginla: 21:26 ATOI/game, playing with Daymond Langkow at C and Alex Tanguay at LW
Kovalev: 19:33 ATOI/game, playing with Tomas Plekanec at C and Andrei Kostitsyn at LW
Alfredsson was a Hart contender through the end of January. On January 25, he was leading the league in scoring with 67 points in 47 games, and he averaged 23:29 through the first 44 games. But hip injuries and knee injuries took their toll in the second half of the season. I blame John Paddock for over-playing the top line. His solution to everything as a coach was to send out Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson, and he burned out Alfredsson and Heatley and lost the rest of the team in the process.
Alfredsson was never the same player after these injuries, becoming more of a playmaker than an all-around scoring threat.
Anyway, Alfredsson was a legitimate star forward for 5 seasons before the lockout, the best forward on one of the best and highest scoring regular season teams, who produced at a point per game level despite being tasked with carrying the second line.