GDT: The 2020 TDL Thread: Part II

[NYSPORTS]

Agree to disagree I guess. It sounds like you just wanted them to not spend be terrible and try to go for the lottery for the next 5 years? I mean teams have done that and either it takes double the time or fails. The rebuild went quicker because the moves we made were great. Intentionally trying to suck does nothing for the kids or the organization

Stop speculating, you’re not good at it. 24 mon was too short. Hockey fans know this team has given up the 2nd highest shots against in the league, they stink on the boards and these cross ice passes will be gone when the ice shrinks. If you see rainbows and unicorns, place your bets in Jersey.

 

[duhmetreE]

I ran it earlier today on cap friendly and the only way I could make it work next year was buying out Staal. Granted that was with keeping 3 goalies and not unloading Smith.

Contracts as follows
ADA
$5.5m

Strome
$5m

Lemieux
$1.5m

Digiuseppe
$.85m

Georgiev
$1.75m

Kravtsov making the team
Hajek making the team
Rykov making the team

Lineup

Panarin-Strome-Kaako
Kreider-Zib-Buch
Lemieux-Chytil-Kravtsov
Gauthier-Howden-Digiuseppe
Smith

Lindgren-Fox
Hajek-Trouba
Rykov-ADA

Hank
Georgiev
Shesty

They had just about $1m in cap space with a cap at $83.5m

Sadly I think we may end up keeping Staal for his final year and HL is more than likely gone. One way or another.

 

[mas0764]

What do you mean by Mika insurance? You mean 3 top 6 centers?

edit: dumb phone

No, I mean, by attrition, we probably aren't gonna be icing a team of Panarin-Mika-Kakko and Kreider-Chytil-Kravtsov from 2021 to 2028. On top of that, the true elite teams usually have second-line type players playing on their third lines to a degree (think, Alex Killorn, Andreas Johansson, Joonas Donskoi, Patric Hornqvist, Denis Gurianov, Tyler Bozak, Alex Steen, Max Domi, etc). See the Athletic's "How Close is every team to being a contender" article, has a wonderful scoring system of players.

You can't just say, oh, there's our top 6, let's just get some Brendan Lemieuxs and Jesper Fasts to fill out the bottom. No, the best teams have second line caliber players on their third lines.

We decidedly lack that depth, even if our top 6 stays intact. Now, we also have good depth on D and well performing goaltenders. So I think we have some leeway in the forwards. But we have a definite top-end talent deficiency there even if guys like Kravtsov and Chytil pan out. We need more 2L caliber players. I'd say -- to be safe -- we should be aiming for 2 more.

One of them should be a center, because center is so important. If Mika drops off in 3 years, you want to transition to another as seamlessly as possible, to extend your window. Otherwise your window slams shut if something happens to your 1C.

 

[Alluckks]

Can't help but feel like Buchnevich is out in the offseason as well. He is the forward version of Skjei in my eyes

 

[duhmetreE]

Can't help but feel like Buchnevich is out in the offseason as well. He is the forward version of Skjei in my eyes

with his replacement in Hartford already

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Well, I can post this now and it may explain a few things. I heard back around Christmas that the Sabres wanted to trade for Kreider and give him a huge contract. A lot more than he signed for president today. I don’t know how far the road this ever got but apparently there was no limit on the assets they were willing to expend. Both players and contract $.

Uh, I assume there was some limit in that they wouldn't move either Eichel or Dahlin, right?

Because if not, we would've been morons not to do that deal...

EDIT:

He was never coming here

Oh, okay.

 

[Rempe73]

He brought in 2 picks.

I dont share that sentiment that we dont have quality forwards. We may be missing a player for the bottom6... That's the easiest of the bunch to find... We're not missing a 1C. We have top line talent. Finding a couple of Jesper Fasts should not be an issue. We have point producing d-men. We need a defensive defensmean on the left side. They dont cost as much as a Fox or ADA and they're not nearly as hard to find.

What this team is 'lacking' is theoretically the 'easiest' to replace... ( comparative to the rest of a winning roster )

Agreed. If I’m the GM, I’m going all-in for scouting young, NHL-ready, undrafted FA forwards. This is a perfect landing spot for them because 1) we are going to have a good/competitive team next year, 2) our bottom 6 needs help, and 3) we don’t have any clear forward prospects ready to make the jump, other than maybe Kravtsov, and that’s a big maybe. Whoever we draft this year, unless we land in the top 3-5, will most likely need at least 2 years. Maybe package one of our 1st rounders, Andersson, and Georgiev for a top 4 LHD. If Lindgren is a legit top 4, that helps a lot. If Miller is ready to play top 6 NHL minutes, even better.

 

[Kords]

No, I mean, by attrition, we probably aren't gonna be icing a team of Panarin-Mika-Kakko and Kreider-Chytil-Kravtsov from 2021 to 2028. On top of that, the true elite teams usually have second-line type players playing on their third lines to a degree (think, Alex Killorn, Andreas Johansson, Joonas Donskoi, Patric Hornqvist, Denis Gurianov, Tyler Bozak, Alex Steen, Max Domi, etc). See the Athletic's "How Close is every team to being a contender" article, has a wonderful scoring system of players.

You can't just say, oh, there's our top 6, let's just get some Brendan Lemieuxs and Jesper Fasts to fill out the bottom. No, the best teams have second line caliber players on their third lines.

We decidedly lack that depth, even if our top 6 stays intact. Now, we also have good depth on D and well performing goaltenders. So I think we have some leeway in the forwards. But we have a definite top-end talent deficiency there even if guys like Kravtsov and Chytil pan out. We need more 2L caliber players. I'd say -- to be safe -- we should be aiming for 2 more.

One of them should be a center, because center is so important. If Mika drops off in 3 years, you want to transition to another as seamlessly as possible, to extend your window. Otherwise your window slams shut if something happens to your 1C.

Ahh, gotcha. Been a long day, I misinterpreted your phrasing. Agreed though.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Larry’s latest article makes it sound like the team has been rebuilding for an eternity

Everyone has the stomach for a rebuild until they suddenly don’t

 

[wafflepadsave]

Who's to say he wouldn't have gotten a 7-8x8-8.5 mil offer from another team, though?

Then wave goodbye.

 

[Alluckks]

I ran it earlier today on cap friendly and the only way I could make it work next year was buying out Staal. Granted that was with keeping 3 goalies and not unloading Smith.

Contracts as follows
ADA
$5.5m

Strome
$5m

Lemieux
$1.5m

Digiuseppe
$.85m

Georgiev
$1.75m

Kravtsov making the team
Hajek making the team
Rykov making the team

Lineup

Panarin-Strome-Kaako
Kreider-Zib-Buch
Lemieux-Chytil-Kravtsov
Gauthier-Howden-Digiuseppe
Smith

Lindgren-Fox
Hajek-Trouba
Rykov-ADA

Hank
Georgiev
Shesty

They had just about $1m in cap space with a cap at $83.5m

And if this is what were to happen, then the following year, the 2021-22 year, we'd have about 20.3 million in cap space coming to us from just buyouts going down/away, Smith, and Lundqvist

 

[mas0764]

We may be better off giving out long-term contracts before the new TV deal kicks in. 2021-2022 would be the first season of the new deal but I think 2022-2023's cap will be the one that realizes it. I could be wrong

Would have been nice to have an extra couple million to do that this offseason.

But yeah, we should be handing out contracts to YOUNG core players NOW. Because the cap is going up and some of those deals will look like bargains in 3 years.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Larry’s latest article makes it sound like the team has been rebuilding for an eternity

Everyone has the stomach for a rebuild until they suddenly don’t

A quick taste of what it feels like to win for a month and all of sudden half the folks want the rebuild over and think we are in our cup window.

NYR- Rebuilding's different here

 

[mas0764]

Chytil is not that special, yet... and you're relying too much on the idea of a prospect(s) ultimately being better than players now. That is not a certainty.

Well, they better be, or this rebuild is a waste of time. If our top-10 drafted players aren't better than Kreider when they start to peak, then we aren't winning any Stanley Cups. We know what having Chris Kreider as one of your best players gets you.

But I think you are dramatically overstating the uncertainty of top 10 picks.

No, we all have a pretty good idea that Kravtsov and Kakko are gonna be very good players. Guys like Holtz and Stutzle are very, very good prospects. Sure, they could bust, but teams are built around those types of players. Not around aging 29 year old 50 point wingers.

 

[aufheben]

JD helped build the Blues and Jackets, Gorton the Bruins. The team is in good hands. People worry too much.

 

[duhmetreE]

No, I mean, by attrition, we probably aren't gonna be icing a team of Panarin-Mika-Kakko and Kreider-Chytil-Kravtsov from 2021 to 2028. On top of that, the true elite teams usually have second-line type players playing on their third lines to a degree (think, Alex Killorn, Andreas Johansson, Joonas Donskoi, Patric Hornqvist, Denis Gurianov, Tyler Bozak, Alex Steen, Max Domi, etc). See the Athletic's "How Close is every team to being a contender" article, has a wonderful scoring system of players.

You can't just say, oh, there's our top 6, let's just get some Brendan Lemieuxs and Jesper Fasts to fill out the bottom. No, the best teams have second line caliber players on their third lines.

We decidedly lack that depth, even if our top 6 stays intact. Now, we also have good depth on D and well performing goaltenders. So I think we have some leeway in the forwards. But we have a definite top-end talent deficiency there even if guys like Kravtsov and Chytil pan out. We need more 2L caliber players. I'd say -- to be safe -- we should be aiming for 2 more.

One of them should be a center, because center is so important. If Mika drops off in 3 years, you want to transition to another as seamlessly as possible, to extend your window. Otherwise your window slams shut if something happens to your 1C.

Wait... good teams need good players?

You may be over selling it. STL and WAS had some decent middle6 players. They were led by their horses at the top. They did have good role players / forecheckers.

Why would Mika drop off in 3 years?

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Lol, so they Rangers won’t go out and spend wildly? Suddenly they will become frugal? Panarin, Trouba, Kreider in one year and now they’ll wait for kids to develop and be frugal. If Vegas has odds, i’d bet against it but hope you are right.

I'm confident in the people who run the show for this team. I have no problem with extending Kreider and trading an underperforming Sjkei for a 1st and getting rid of that 5 mil. Thats a decision that they made and it's done. There isn't 1 team in this league that doesn't have higher priced vets. That's reality. We have plenty of cost controlled young players both on the team now and top prospects in the minors and I see the cap being managed by competent people.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

It'd be cool if someone actually detailed the Rangers cap situation for the next several years instead of people just arguing back and forth about whether the team will be broke. Put it in real dollars.

Here you go.

This is with a static upper limit (which isn't going to be the case) but here is what we look like for the next 5 years.

This summer is the biggest navigation point they're going to have to deal with until the Mika UFA and Fox and Kakko RFA seasons.

Lets assume an 83 million dollar cap.That gives them about 15.9 mill in space. Im rounding to 16 because its easier and this is my analysis, ha.

DeAngelo is getting at least 6, that leaves you 10-ish mill to work with and the following players in need of a new contract (of the players worth being tendered a new deal, my contract estimates listed)

-Strome (5)
-Geo (2.5)
-Fast (3)
-Lemieux (1.5)

Honestly, it makes a TON of sense to move Geo this summer no matter what happens with Hank. If he stays, it becomes a necessity.

Regardless, someone (or someones) from that group won't be here next year.

It's possible to basically roll a status quo lineup out there next season, but thats still a team on the bubble at best and unless they make a significant subtraction or 2, they're very limited in ways they can improve their roster. That may be okay to some, but with the team spending more than a quarter of their cap on 3 players since last summer, basically punting a season and waiting for space to open up prior to what will be the last ELC years of Fox and Kakko's contracts and the last of Zibanejad's current one doesn't really sit well with me. Those guys are going to eat up a SHIT load of money.

Burying Smith gives you an extra mill+ to work with, but that isn't enough to really make a difference.

 

[duhmetreE]

JD helped build the Blues and Jackets, Gorton the Bruins. The team is in good hands. People worry too much.

It's a hard cap era.

It'd be EXTREMELY rare to find a flawless team. TB was suppose to be that perfect team last year. Breadman was laughing in their face at the handshake line

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Strome should be traded at the draft. Sell high, sell high. Grab another 1st if some team is silly enough to give up one for him thinking he is a legit 50 point scorer. Or do another Brassard/Mika type trade. Get a young player with some good potential.

 

[NYRangers0723]

Stop speculating, you’re not good at it. 24 mon was too short. Hockey fans know this team has given up the 2nd highest shots against in the league, they stink on the boards and these cross ice passes will be gone when the ice shrinks. If you see rainbows and unicorns, place your bets in Jersey.

. Nah I’m good thanks. I think what I said is pretty fair and true. I feel like I am talking to mike francesa now ukay lol

 

[wafflepadsave]

Well, I can post this now and it may explain a few things. I heard back around Christmas that the Sabres wanted to trade for Kreider and give him a huge contract. A lot more than he signed for president today. I don’t know how far the road this ever got but apparently there was no limit on the assets they were willing to expend. Both players and contract $.

And we told them to get lost?

 

[Rempe73]

Especially when the light was at the end of the tunnel.

A commitment to just one offseason remaking the forwards as they've done with the defense -- one more offseason obtaining a Kakko or Kravtsov type forward, probably would have done it.

Not necessarily. A team made up of all young players, without veteran leadership, just doesn’t work. You need a good mix. Panarin wouldn’t be enough.

 

[NYRangers0723]

Strome should be traded at the draft. Sell high, sell high. Grab another 1st if some team is silly enough to give up one for him thinking he is a legit 50 point scorer.

I’m ok with this. Like I said I would be ok if he stays but not if he is looking for 6 m per or something crazy like that

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Can't help but feel like Buchnevich is out in the offseason as well. He is the forward version of Skjei in my eyes

Nah, he has performed far better than Skjei relative to their cap hits.