Prospect Info: The 2016 Draft Thread [Draft Lottery April 30th]

[McDrai]

I would just trade Matthews.

I wouldn't. Matthews will be an elite #1 Center in the NHL. I would only trade the pick if OEL or Subban was offered

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

My god, I told myself I wouldn't keep my eyes on the standings once we started sucking.
I just looked today. We are SO. MUCH. WORSE. Than everyone else in the West. We're not even close to 2nd last.

 

[IAGTTAYM]

[Tweet]701406795307339777[/MEDIA]

Embarrassing.

 

[GMofOilers]

Well my first post in this thread. I really didnt think we would be picking bottom 5 this year, but this team proves me wrong.

There is some elite talent in the top5 though. I know we dont need to get younger but dam on of the 2 finns on the wing would be pretty handy.

 

[jebs]

Sucks that all the top guys are forwards this season. I've been wanting one of the top 3 dmen available in this draft, but Oilers seem to be sucking way to badly to draft them.

 

[belair]

Sucks that all the top guys are forwards this season. I've been wanting one of the top 3 dmen available in this draft, but Oilers seem to be sucking way to badly to draft them.

Doesn't matter really. The last thing this defense needs is another piece under the age of 20. That pick should be someone else's.

 

[lakai17]

Doesn't matter really. The last thing this defense needs is another piece under the age of 20. That pick should be someone else's.

Why not? A cup is not coming to Edmonton in over 5 years at this rate. Its still a great time to develop. A defence like Juolevi would be ready in 3 years I imagine.

 

[PKSpecialist]

I have to agree with the others, not much interest in Howden with our 2nd round pick. These type of guys are always called "safe" but they're really not all that safe. Most of them lack the high-end offense to become contributing players in the NHL. I don't know why the narrative that a player who isn't great offensively but has a good all-around game is able to carve himself out an NHL career in a smaller role, because that is far from a given.

The way these guys mostly develop is that they take at least 4 years, more likely 5 to even reach the NHL and when/if they do it's often as a fringe player. I mean, just look at Howdens brother Quinton. He was drafted late in the 1st round in 2010 and it's not until this year that he is a regular and he is likely never going to be anything more than a bottom-six guy. It's just not a good idea to take these guys. Much rather take my chances with someone who has high upside.

These posts make me laugh. Howden is a "safe" pick because he is a defensively responsible player who is physical and also scoring at basically a point per game pace in his draft year. Take the defensively responsible part out and he is Paul Bittner last year who many were pining for with Pittsburgh's pick. Is he like his brother? Absolutely. Is he also like Boone Jenner? Absolutely. What is wrong with Quinton Howden? He also is a defensively responsible player with some offensive upside. He just turned 24 years old, was seasoned properly in the minors before being given his shot, and is now producing solidly in a 4th line role on the BEST team in the Atlantic division. Let's say that is Brett Howden's basement. Let's say Boone Jenner is his ceiling. I would be very happy with a pick like that with our second rounder. Sure we can pick a Sam Steel instead, who has a much higher perceived upside than Howden because he is an offense only player who likely won't make the NHL unless he is a top 6 player. That's the sexy/risky pick. The problem is that this player probably tops out like a Sam Gagner while his basement resides somewhere in Europe. By the way, Sam Steel for all his "offensive upside" is producing that offense at the same rate as Brett Howden who apparently is just a safe pick.

Safe doesn't have to mean David Musil. Drafting a guy with middle 6 upside, bottom six downside is fine. Those are the players this team lacks.

Note: This isn't a shot at you in particular, or at Sam Steel. This is an ideology that has become very prevalent on HFBoards over the past few years. Draft for potential only, and if defensively responsible is in their scouting report, it means they are a safe pick, so avoid them. I am just trying to poke holes in the ideology. Brett Howden is not a safe pick at 33 in my opinion. He is a GREAT pick.

 

[Stiltzkin*]

Why not? A cup is not coming to Edmonton in over 5 years at this rate. Its still a great time to develop. A defence like Juolevi would be ready in 3 years I imagine.

indeed.
at some point you need to start developing your own defensive core
unless you year in and year out want to spend top dollar for a rental.

 

[belair]

Why not? A cup is not coming to Edmonton in over 5 years at this rate. Its still a great time to develop. A defence like Juolevi would be ready in 3 years I imagine.

Because what we acquire by trading the pick helps us sooner than three years from now when Juolevi is 'ready' to be a rookie defenseman.

The time to get better is now and the draft doesn't offer the immediate help we're looking for.

indeed.
at some point you need to start developing your own defensive core
unless you year in and year out want to spend top dollar for a rental.

I don't disagree with you but what about Reinhart, Nurse, Davidson? Sekera isn't going anywhere.

What about Ethan Bear? Caleb Jones? Ziyat Paigin? Is that not development?

 

[lakai17]

Because what we acquire by trading the pick helps us sooner than three years from now when Juolevi is 'ready' to be a rookie defenseman.

The time to get better is now and the draft doesn't offer the immediate help we're looking for.



I don't disagree with you but what about Reinhart, Nurse, Davidson? Sekera isn't going anywhere.

What about Ethan Bear? Caleb Jones? Ziyat Paigin? Is that not development?

Reinhart is a decent 6th, 7th defencman today. No signs he is a guaranteed top 4 yet.

Bear, Jones and Paigin is a start but still are no guarantee's.

I am with you on getting better now but with the core now Edmonton can start developing legit quality in the minors. Thats what separates a great franchise from a good franchise is having the cupboards full of quality depth.

Edmonton have the opportunity to develop the Detroit Red wings way today. Dylan Larkin was the first teenager to crack the Wings roster in over 15 years, that speaks volumes on that franchise.

 

[A91]

Well my first post in this thread. I really didnt think we would be picking bottom 5 this year, but this team proves me wrong.

There is some elite talent in the top5 though. I know we dont need to get younger but dam on of the 2 finns on the wing would be pretty handy.

Basically my feelings as well.

 

[Zaddy]

These posts make me laugh. Howden is a "safe" pick because he is a defensively responsible player who is physical and also scoring at basically a point per game pace in his draft year. Take the defensively responsible part out and he is Paul Bittner last year who many were pining for with Pittsburgh's pick. Is he like his brother? Absolutely. Is he also like Boone Jenner? Absolutely. What is wrong with Quinton Howden? He also is a defensively responsible player with some offensive upside. He just turned 24 years old, was seasoned properly in the minors before being given his shot, and is now producing solidly in a 4th line role on the BEST team in the Atlantic division. Let's say that is Brett Howden's basement. Let's say Boone Jenner is his ceiling. I would be very happy with a pick like that with our second rounder. Sure we can pick a Sam Steel instead, who has a much higher perceived upside than Howden because he is an offense only player who likely won't make the NHL unless he is a top 6 player. That's the sexy/risky pick. The problem is that this player probably tops out like a Sam Gagner while his basement resides somewhere in Europe. By the way, Sam Steel for all his "offensive upside" is producing that offense at the same rate as Brett Howden who apparently is just a safe pick.

Safe doesn't have to mean David Musil. Drafting a guy with middle 6 upside, bottom six downside is fine. Those are the players this team lacks.

Note: This isn't a shot at you in particular, or at Sam Steel. This is an ideology that has become very prevalent on HFBoards over the past few years. Draft for potential only, and if defensively responsible is in their scouting report, it means they are a safe pick, so avoid them. I am just trying to poke holes in the ideology. Brett Howden is not a safe pick at 33 in my opinion. He is a GREAT pick.

I understand where you're coming from but I have to say I disagree entirely. These "defensively responsible" players who are considered "safe" just rarely turn out to be anything worthwhile. While it's nice to get an NHLer out of any draftpick, the reality is that it's usually not all that difficult to get cheap and effective bottom-six guys through means of trade and free agency. With top60 picks, maybe even top90, you should aim high. Go for the impact guys, even if they are riskier. I do agree though that if the choice came down to Howden and Steel I would go with Howden too, but that doesn't say much because I dislike them both about equally and Howden has more redeeming qualities than Steel does.

The type of player I would like to target with an early 2nd round pick is not Sam Steel, rather it would be guys like Cam Dineen, Pascal Laberge, Luke Green, Dillon Dube or Will Bitten. These are guys with legitimate upside. The only knock on them is size pretty much, although both Laberge and Green should fill out nicely and have legit NHL size when they add some muscle. I'm not even convinced Howden is safer than any of these guys. It's just a phrase scouts use for someone who has good size and is defensively responsible, while not offering much else. I would actually love to see some statistics to see if these type of prospects turn out any better than smaller guys with bigger numbers, because I'm not convinced they do.

 

[PKSpecialist]

Because what we acquire by trading the pick helps us sooner than three years from now when Juolevi is 'ready' to be a rookie defenseman.

The time to get better is now and the draft doesn't offer the immediate help we're looking for.



I don't disagree with you but what about Reinhart, Nurse, Davidson? Sekera isn't going anywhere.

What about Ethan Bear? Caleb Jones? Ziyat Paigin? Is that not development?

This is the biggest struggle. You are right, and wrong. We need help sooner than 3 years from now. We also need help 3 years from now. Sekera isn't going anywhere? No, but he is 5 years from now. So you draft his replacement now, and he stays in junior for a couple of years, in the A for a year, and has a couple years experience in the NHL before Sekera leaves and he is ready for a top 4 role. That's the whole thing with the draft. You have to continue to draft with eyes on the future, not with eyes on today.

The key for Chiarelli now is that the team needs to get better today without mortgaging the future because we need the flexibility to continue to get better. Building a contending hockey team shouldn't have a single goal. It needs to be continuous. I don't want to win A Stanley Cup, I want to win several. I don't want a 10 year rebuild to produce one contending team, I want it to produce a perennial contender. If we continue to trade away our futures for today, tomorrow is going to be a problem.

 

[PKSpecialist]

I understand where you're coming from but I have to say I disagree entirely. These "defensively responsible" players who are considered "safe" just rarely turn out to be anything worthwhile. While it's nice to get an NHLer out of any draftpick, the reality is that it's usually not all that difficult to get cheap and effective bottom-six guys through means of trade and free agency. With top60 picks, maybe even top90, you should aim high. Go for the impact guys, even if they are riskier. I do agree though that if the choice came down to Howden and Steel I would go with Howden too, but that doesn't say much because I dislike them both about equally and Howden has more redeeming qualities than Steel does.

The type of player I would like to target with an early 2nd round pick is not Sam Steel, rather it would be guys like Cam Dineen, Pascal Laberge, Luke Green, Dillon Dube or Will Bitten. These are guys with legitimate upside. The only knock on them is size pretty much, although both Laberge and Green should fill out nicely and have legit NHL size when they add some muscle. I'm not even convinced Howden is safer than any of these guys. It's just a phrase scouts use for someone who has good size and is defensively responsible, while not offering much else. I would actually love to see some statistics to see if these type of prospects turn out any better than smaller guys with bigger numbers, because I'm not convinced they do.

Let's take the defenders out of this argument, as Chychrun was our first round pick in the mock, and with our other defensive prospects(Paygin, Bear, Jones, Reinhart along with Nurse and Klefbom), I don't believe we focus too heavily on defense in this draft.

Let's look at the forwards you brought forth. Laberge, Dube and Bitten. Only one, Laberge, has significantly outproduced Howden. I am not much of a stat geek like many others here, so someone help me out with the Q to W comparison and I would guess that Laberge's offensive output is likely negligibly better than Howdens. All I'm saying is, again, Howden's potential is being diminished again by the fact that he is responsible defensively.

Potential has become small in stature, one-dimensional with solid junior numbers. Safe has become big and physical with two-way attributes and the same solid junior numbers.

Thanks a lot Johnny Gaudreau.

 

[Zaddy]

Let's take the defenders out of this argument, as Chychrun was our first round pick in the mock, and with our other defensive prospects(Paygin, Bear, Jones, Reinhart along with Nurse and Klefbom), I don't believe we focus too heavily on defense in this draft.

Let's look at the forwards you brought forth. Laberge, Dube and Bitten. Only one, Laberge, has significantly outproduced Howden. I am not much of a stat geek like many others here, so someone help me out with the Q to W comparison and I would guess that Laberge's offensive output is likely negligibly better than Howdens. All I'm saying is, again, Howden's potential is being diminished again by the fact that he is responsible defensively.

Potential has become small in stature, one-dimensional with solid junior numbers. Safe has become big and physical with two-way attributes and the same solid junior numbers.

Thanks a lot Johnny Gaudreau.

I don't even look at the numbers that much. It's about what I see when I watch these guys play. Besides, Howden is being outproduced by another draft-eligible player on his own team and he is significantly behind Hunt and Point when it comes to production on that team. Laberge is leading his team in points while playing a much more active style, getting involved in the play, hitting and working the boards but also being able to both finish and set up plays. Laberge himself is not a bad player defensively either, quite the contrary, so I'm not even sure if Howden has much of an advantage there either. The decision between the two of them would be very easy for me. I like guys who get involved in the play and can be a driving force. I see a lot of that in Laberge and almost none of it in Howden. He has been very invisible the 3-4 times I've seen him play.

Will Bitten I can admit to having watched very little so I'm mostly going off reports with that guy, but everything I hear about him is very good. And again, you can't really compare numbers because they give a very skewed look and doesn't take into account the type of team the players are on. In Bittens case he is the leading scorer on his team, by a decent margin too, and the Firebirds are an awful team and an awful situation to play in, yet Bitten has been a good soldier and is doing the best out of a bad situation. You'd have to think a lot of guys drafted in Bittens position would've forced a trade somewhere else at some point, yet he didn't. That leads me to believe there's some good character in that kid, and for a guy that's small that's exactly what you want.

Dillon Dube is "only" the 2nd highest scoring player on his team but he is outproducing both Merkley and Chartier. Dube is a bit of a personal favorite of mine. Obviously saw him a lot last year with Draisaitl in Kelowna but I also loved him at the Ivan Hlinka at the beginning of the season. With his speed and skill he created offense on almost every shift. He is just a real treat to watch and he gets things done. He may have some work to do to get to the NHL but I just love the energy that he brings. That's really what you want to see from a smaller guy. I wouldn't be surprised to see him produce really big numbers in Kelowna next year while also earning himself a spot on the WJC team.

So, yeah...for me it would be a no-brainer to take at least Dube and Laberge ahead of Howden (as I haven't seen Bitten much). There's a reason these guys have traction in the 1st round while Howden does not.

 

[belair]

This is the biggest struggle. You are right, and wrong. We need help sooner than 3 years from now. We also need help 3 years from now. Sekera isn't going anywhere? No, but he is 5 years from now. So you draft his replacement now, and he stays in junior for a couple of years, in the A for a year, and has a couple years experience in the NHL before Sekera leaves and he is ready for a top 4 role. That's the whole thing with the draft. You have to continue to draft with eyes on the future, not with eyes on today.

The key for Chiarelli now is that the team needs to get better today without mortgaging the future because we need the flexibility to continue to get better. Building a contending hockey team shouldn't have a single goal. It needs to be continuous. I don't want to win A Stanley Cup, I want to win several. I don't want a 10 year rebuild to produce one contending team, I want it to produce a perennial contender. If we continue to trade away our futures for today, tomorrow is going to be a problem.

Then you trade the top 5 at its peak value and then pick a guy or guys in the 2nd/3rd rounds to develop for your future defense. Trade Juolevi for a Hamonic and draft a Dineen or a Day or a Girard or a Mete. Those guys likely aren't in the discussion to be turning pro for a few more years. The same can't be said for Chychrun or Juolevi.

High end pieces in the system are nice, but the tunnel-vision needs to stop in respect to the draft.

 

[BlowbyBlow]

If it's Matthews i can't see a trade unless OEL, or Pietro come back with no add ons from the Oilers side.

People also forget Matthews is already playing professional hockey. That would be like getting some in a Jack Eichel tier and already having them being developed moreso.

 

[belair]

If it's Matthews i can't see a trade unless OEL, or Pietro come back with no add ons from the Oilers side.

People also forget Matthews is already playing professional hockey. That would be like getting some in a Jack Eichel tier and already having them being developed moreso.

I posted it in the other thread, but essentially I said we don't need that.

That's another $10m forward on a team that hasn't paid for their defense. Chiarelli will have a month to iron out potential deals and he should pull the trigger on the one that fills the needs of the Edmonton Oilers most.

 

[PKSpecialist]

So, yeah...for me it would be a no-brainer to take at least Dube and Laberge ahead of Howden (as I haven't seen Bitten much). There's a reason these guys have traction in the 1st round while Howden does not.

Great discussion and glad to get the thread back on topic. For the record, in the mock, I have Pascal Laberge going at 27, 6 picks before Howden, Dube at 39, 6 picks after, and Bitten at 42.

I disagree on Howden, and thats ok. I think he is being held back a bit offensively as he is used more in a checking role. The team has some great offensive players like Point and Hunt who are older. I believe when these guys graduate that Popugayev, Howden and Gregor will take off offensively given larger offensive roles. For the time being, Howden has done a really good job in his two-way role. Like you said, and I don't disagree with your viewings, Howden is not a flashy offensive player. He is a straight line, go to the dirty areas, clean up the trash at both ends type.

I do find Bitten very tough to project. He has some good teammates, like Caamano and Saarijarvi, but the team as a whole is very poor. Bitten is given every opportunity to succeed as he is the go to guy on the PP and in every situation(he is also used on the PK). Would like to see him on a better team, and given the youth on the Flint team, they should be better next year(IF the ownership/management situation is taken care of).

 

[Zaddy]

Great discussion and glad to get the thread back on topic. For the record, in the mock, I have Pascal Laberge going at 27, 6 picks before Howden, Dube at 39, 6 picks after, and Bitten at 42.

I disagree on Howden, and thats ok. I think he is being held back a bit offensively as he is used more in a checking role. The team has some great offensive players like Point and Hunt who are older. I believe when these guys graduate that Popugayev, Howden and Gregor will take off offensively given larger offensive roles. For the time being, Howden has done a really good job in his two-way role. Like you said, and I don't disagree with your viewings, Howden is not a flashy offensive player. He is a straight line, go to the dirty areas, clean up the trash at both ends type.

I do find Bitten very tough to project. He has some good teammates, like Caamano and Saarijarvi, but the team as a whole is very poor. Bitten is given every opportunity to succeed as he is the go to guy on the PP and in every situation(he is also used on the PK). Would like to see him on a better team, and given the youth on the Flint team, they should be better next year(IF the ownership/management situation is taken care of).

I actually just now couldn't remember if Howden was in the CHL Top Prospects Game and had to go back and look to see if he was and as it turns out he did play in that game and now that I think about it I have a faint memory of it. That's how little of an impression he was making on me then and is making on me every time I watch him. I haven't completely zero'ed in on him in any particular game though to see all the small things he's doing and maybe I should but either way I just find it hard to be excited about these guys.

I think Anton Lander is a decent comparable to Howden in some regards, as he was also a 2nd round pick that people thought was a very safe pick and should at least be an excellent bottom-six guy with leadership who is defensively strong, or perhaps even elite. Well, Lander isn't doing much of anything right about now.

He is closing in on 200 NHL games so I guess in that regard he was a safe pick, but how much has he helped the Edmonton Oilers? Not very much. If he turned out to be that really good bottom-six guy that was great on PK, faceoffs and could at least get 15-20 points a year then yeah it would be a good pick but if you take out last season he has never scored more than 6 points in a year and has 10 points and only 2 of them goals in 4 years combined.

Basically he has been a wasted pick. He's not contributing with anything here that you can't find a guy on waivers to do for you for free. I just think you're limiting yourself as a franchise if you're using your high picks on guys with limited ceilings. I don't think Montreal regret taking a small offensive d-man by the name of PK Subban in the 2nd round in 2007. I do think Anaheim may regret taking the big and safe winger Eric Tangradi with the pick right before him though. And no, I'm not comparing Tangradi to Howden, I'm saying that I much rather take a risk on a potential (super)star than grab someone who is deemed safe but has limited upside.

There's lots of examples. Look at the 2010 draft. Who is the 3 best players from that 2nd round? Justin Faulk, Ryan Spooner and Tyler Toffoli. What do they have in common? Small and skilled.

Anyway, nothing wrong with your opinion but personally I don't agree with that drafting philosophy, it's why I had a guy like Vince Dunn ranked 20th last year. If he hits his potential he could be one of the best players in the entire draft. That kind of potential is worth gambling on. Every once in a while they turn out and you get handsomely rewarded for it. Duncan Keith is another example.

Erik Karlsson and Kevin Shattenkirk were both drafted in the 1st round but they share many similar traits to the guys that I'm talking about. Ottawa took a huge risk in drafting Karlsson that high. In doing so they got rewarded by getting a franchise-player for a decade or more. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying any of Bitten, Laberge or Dube are going to be anywhere near that good, I'm talking more generally on drafting philosophy as a whole and how I would approach it and why I would approach it in that way.

If you keep using picks on safe guys you are never going to get any stars outside the 1st round and, in my opinion, that's a huge reason why the Oilers have such a poor drafting record in the rounds 2-7. It seemed to be a shift in that mentality last summer when we drafted Bear, Jones and Paigin and I hope this is something that will continue with Chia at the helm.

 

[PKSpecialist]

I actually just now couldn't remember if Howden was in the CHL Top Prospects Game and had to go back and look to see if he was and as it turns out he did play in that game and now that I think about it I have a faint memory of it. That's how little of an impression he was making on me then and is making on me every time I watch him. I haven't completely zero'ed in on him in any particular game though to see all the small things he's doing and maybe I should but either way I just find it hard to be excited about these guys.

I think Anton Lander is a decent comparable to Howden in some regards, as he was also a 2nd round pick that people thought was a very safe pick and should at least be an excellent bottom-six guy with leadership who is defensively strong, or perhaps even elite. Well, Lander isn't doing much of anything right about now.

He is closing in on 200 NHL games so I guess in that regard he was a safe pick, but how much has he helped the Edmonton Oilers? Not very much. If he turned out to be that really good bottom-six guy that was great on PK, faceoffs and could at least get 15-20 points a year then yeah it would be a good pick but if you take out last season he has never scored more than 6 points in a year and has 10 points and only 2 of them goals in 4 years combined.

Basically he has been a wasted pick. He's not contributing with anything here that you can't find a guy on waivers to do for you for free. I just think you're limiting yourself as a franchise if you're using your high picks on guys with limited ceilings. I don't think Montreal regret taking a small offensive d-man by the name of PK Subban in the 2nd round in 2007. I do think Anaheim may regret taking the big and safe winger Eric Tangradi with the pick right before him though. And no, I'm not comparing Tangradi to Howden, I'm saying that I much rather take a risk on a potential (super)star than grab someone who is deemed safe but has limited upside.

There's lots of examples. Look at the 2010 draft. Who is the 3 best players from that 2nd round? Justin Faulk, Ryan Spooner and Tyler Toffoli. What do they have in common? Small and skilled.

Anyway, nothing wrong with your opinion but personally I don't agree with that drafting philosophy, it's why I had a guy like Vince Dunn ranked 20th last year. If he hits his potential he could be one of the best players in the entire draft. That kind of potential is worth gambling on. Every once in a while they turn out and you get handsomely rewarded for it. Duncan Keith is another example.

Erik Karlsson and Kevin Shattenkirk were both drafted in the 1st round but they share many similar traits to the guys that I'm talking about. Ottawa took a huge risk in drafting Karlsson that high. In doing so they got rewarded by getting a franchise-player for a decade or more. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying any of Bitten, Laberge or Dube are going to be anywhere near that good, I'm talking more generally on drafting philosophy as a whole and how I would approach it and why I would approach it in that way.

If you keep using picks on safe guys you are never going to get any stars outside the 1st round and, in my opinion, that's a huge reason why the Oilers have such a poor drafting record in the rounds 2-7. It seemed to be a shift in that mentality last summer when we drafted Bear, Jones and Paigin and I hope this is something that will continue with Chia at the helm.

I don't think its fair to go back to these drafts and call all the guys that turned into something 'risky' picks now. Bear, Jones and Paigin have been great this year, but they were far from home-run/sexy/risky picks. They all went pretty much where they were expected to. They have all had very solid development years. Tyler Toffoli fell because of skating issues, not size from what I recall. I really didn't get in depth with following the draft until 2011, so I can't go too in depth with any draft older than that as far as scouting reports go.

Other than Musil, when have the Oilers taken the 'safe' pick? They went homerun in Moroz as they thought he was a Senyshyn(better player stuck lower on the depth chart on a really good team). They drafted Yakimov, Slepyshev, Klefbom, all of whom I would say were more homerun picks at the time than safe. They certainly seem to have an issue with getting stuck in a rut drafting. One year they draft all fridges. The next year they draft for skill, another year, homerun russians, another year all defenders. They need to find a happy median.

I am all for drafting big guys or small guys with skill, a nose for the net and getting to the dirty areas, and a strong defensive acumen. If Howden turns into a strong defensive third liner who plays with physicality, that is far better for this franchise than drafting a Sam Gagner type player. We have the high profile offensive players already. We need to surround them with players that help make them better. Howden is that type of player. Doesn't mean he cant become a second line winger/center. He may do that. That's likely all you will ever get in a Bitten/Dube as well.

I guess it all boils down to preference. Think of it in these terms, and how do you make a decision at the draft table. I think there would be a lot of different views:

Player A:
5% chance 1st liner
30% chance 2nd liner
7% chance 3rd liner
7% chance 4th liner
49% total chance of an NHLer

Player B:
1% chance 1st liner
15% chance 2nd liner
35% chance 3rd liner
40% chance 4th liner
91% chance of an NHLer

Obviously I am pulling numbers out of the air, but I think the point stands. One player has a higher upside potential, but lower basement, and with the lower basement, becomes much less likely to be an NHLer of any kind. The other player has the same upside potential, just much less likely, but has a very good chance of becoming an NHLer.

 

[Zaddy]

I don't think its fair to go back to these drafts and call all the guys that turned into something 'risky' picks now. Bear, Jones and Paigin have been great this year, but they were far from home-run/sexy/risky picks. They all went pretty much where they were expected to. They have all had very solid development years. Tyler Toffoli fell because of skating issues, not size from what I recall. I really didn't get in depth with following the draft until 2011, so I can't go too in depth with any draft older than that as far as scouting reports go.

Other than Musil, when have the Oilers taken the 'safe' pick? They went homerun in Moroz as they thought he was a Senyshyn(better player stuck lower on the depth chart on a really good team). They drafted Yakimov, Slepyshev, Klefbom, all of whom I would say were more homerun picks at the time than safe. They certainly seem to have an issue with getting stuck in a rut drafting. One year they draft all fridges. The next year they draft for skill, another year, homerun russians, another year all defenders. They need to find a happy median.

I am all for drafting big guys or small guys with skill, a nose for the net and getting to the dirty areas, and a strong defensive acumen. If Howden turns into a strong defensive third liner who plays with physicality, that is far better for this franchise than drafting a Sam Gagner type player. We have the high profile offensive players already. We need to surround them with players that help make them better. Howden is that type of player. Doesn't mean he cant become a second line winger/center. He may do that. That's likely all you will ever get in a Bitten/Dube as well.

I guess it all boils down to preference. Think of it in these terms, and how do you make a decision at the draft table. I think there would be a lot of different views:

Player A:
5% chance 1st liner
30% chance 2nd liner
7% chance 3rd liner
7% chance 4th liner
49% total chance of an NHLer

Player B:
1% chance 1st liner
15% chance 2nd liner
35% chance 3rd liner
40% chance 4th liner
91% chance of an NHLer

Obviously I am pulling numbers out of the air, but I think the point stands. One player has a higher upside potential, but lower basement, and with the lower basement, becomes much less likely to be an NHLer of any kind. The other player has the same upside potential, just much less likely, but has a very good chance of becoming an NHLer.

I wasn't saying Bear, Jones and Paigin are risky picks per se, rather that they are guys with relatively high ceilings if you consider their draft position, which is why I liked those picks. I believe you have to draft from a risk-reward perspective. I wouldn't have been a fan of picking Bear if he was selected in the 3rd round, but in the 5th round I was happy to get him.

For me it's not necessarily about the player but rather where he is selected. With Howden I just feel there is better selections available early in the 2nd round and I'm not sure if they are that much (if at all) riskier than him while having, what I perceive as, higher ceilings. I'd be absolutely fine with Howden as a 3rd round pick or even a late 2nd rounder but around the 31-40 range I think there are better selections to make.

I'm not all about taking risks even if it may seem so, it has to be a balanced calculation. Sean Day would be a good example. Lots and lots of potential in him, but for me there is too much risk to use a 2nd round pick on him.

In general I think you (meaning a scouting staff) could or even should break down the draft into really small pieces and determine which prospect offer the best risk-reward value at any one spot in the draft. I feel like the draft could be much more of a science than it is today and I'm honestly quite baffled by how NHL teams approach it. With everything that's at stake you'd think there would be more effort put in to it and developing a good system for who you're going to take rather than going on gut feeling or whatever attributes seems to be in vogue at the moment, whether it's "size", "intangibles" or "compete".

I guess many people might disagree with my view on the matter but I absolutely do think that NHL scouting could and should be improved. I've said it many times before but I don't think the draft is as much of a crapshoot as people say. It's like ignorant people talking about how poker is just luck. It isn't. It's about making good, smart bets and in the long run it will pay off. The exact same principle goes for drafting.

 

[PKSpecialist]

I wasn't saying Bear, Jones and Paigin are risky picks per se, rather that they are guys with relatively high ceilings if you consider their draft position, which is why I liked those picks. I believe you have to draft from a risk-reward perspective. I wouldn't have been a fan of picking Bear if he was selected in the 3rd round, but in the 5th round I was happy to get him.

For me it's not necessarily about the player but rather where he is selected. With Howden I just feel there is better selections available early in the 2nd round and I'm not sure if they are that much (if at all) riskier than him while having, what I perceive as, higher ceilings. I'd be absolutely fine with Howden as a 3rd round pick or even a late 2nd rounder but around the 31-40 range I think there are better selections to make.

I'm not all about taking risks even if it may seem so, it has to be a balanced calculation. Sean Day would be a good example. Lots and lots of potential in him, but for me there is too much risk to use a 2nd round pick on him.

In general I think you (meaning a scouting staff) could or even should break down the draft into really small pieces and determine which prospect offer the best risk-reward value at any one spot in the draft. I feel like the draft could be much more of a science than it is today and I'm honestly quite baffled by how NHL teams approach it. With everything that's at stake you'd think there would be more effort put in to it and developing a good system for who you're going to take rather than going on gut feeling or whatever attributes seems to be in vogue at the moment, whether it's "size", "intangibles" or "compete".

I guess many people might disagree with my view on the matter but I absolutely do think that NHL scouting could and should be improved. I've said it many times before but I don't think the draft is as much of a crapshoot as people say. It's like ignorant people talking about how poker is just luck. It isn't. It's about making good, smart bets and in the long run it will pay off. The exact same principle goes for drafting.

I'm in agreement with you in a lot of ways. I think it is ignorant how people talk about BPA all the time. There never really is a BPA outside of the top 10. Need, and risk assessment has to be taken into account as you say. Many teams actually discount certain prospects completely. I have first hand account of this from talking to some scouts. The biggest one being goaltenders. There are teams/scouts that don't even rank goalies if they don't fit the size requirement.

There really isn't an exact science in all of this. Its all about risk assessment or projection. Think of any ten player segment of the draft, especially outside of the top 10. Have any 10 people rank those players. Thats scouting in a nutshell. Some will rank them based on potential. Some will rank them based on risk. Some will rank them based on a size/skill combo. Some will rank them based on need. etc, etc, etc..... Fact is you must come to some consensus, but then remain flexible on your board. The Oilers biggest need going into this draft when looking at their prospect pool is at the forward position, and really it is everything about it. They currently don't have a single forward in the minors that I would consider a slam dunk NHLer. If the Oilers happen to draft Chychrun with their first pick, I would drop pretty much every defender off my board at that point, unless one falls drastically. With Paygin, Bear, Jones, Reinhart, Klefbom, Nurse and Chychrun, the Oilers would have a deep defensive prospect pool. They would need to focus on their weak forward group. They also need to find a goaltender. Brossoit will likely graduate next year leaving Laurikainen as the only goalie in the system.

 

[Draiskull]

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Embarrassing.

so there is still 15% chance we dont draft in top 5??