Prospect Info: The 2016 Draft Thread [Draft Lottery April 30th]

[jeg]

It's even worse if the circumstances surrounding are true (katz meddling with things)

I was all over Galenchyuk so I can admit I was wrong. The whole billing on Murray was that he would be an offensive defensiveman, and he will work on his defense. I wasn't impressed enough with his defense.



My feelings on drafting is go with your gut. I know this will sound retrospect but Lombardi said after he had met all the guys in Doughty's/Stamkos draft class there was no waivering from picking Doughty.

I just hope the Oilers have guys on there scouting department who can figure out who has work ethic, and dedication (most can identify talent)

I'm all for BPA if he is unquestionably, if your not in the top 5 I always feel you should just identify a guy who is someone your committed to work with and he is with you. That's why Eberle was a no brainer, teams complicate things in those situations. Just like Parise. I like how Lou said it about drafting him we want hockey guys and that's what he is.

Sounds simple, but get guys who live, eat, breathe hockey.

Sounds like Larkin a bit, wasnt highly touted but his work ethic was off the charts. That has to be valued close to raw talant when deciding if not you can lose site

 

[Fourier]

It's why you go BPA. Cause scouts have spent years identifying those players. Unless a teams own scouts know for a fact that a player will be good, going off the board tends to backfire more often than not.

Jones fell from 1st to 4th and i bet Tampa and Florida kind of regret it.

I can assure you that Florida does not regret Barkov over Jones. Given the choice today they would pick Barkov 10 times out of 10.

Drouin was not an off the board pick relative to Jones. He is a guy with incredible skill who had a tremendous year. Relative to Jones he was the BPA. Just as Yakupov was the right pick given the information you had at the time. Predicting how players will develop is far from an exact science.

Where need comes into play this year for the Oilers is much more about the decision to keep the pick or trade it. If this pick is top 2 then you may want to keep it if you can't get a great return. If it is anything below that I would shop it hard and only make the pick if what you could get is not an impact player.

 

[McDeepika]

Matthews, Laine, Juolevi, Chychrun would all be really solid picks for this franchise. I don't think we need to move the pick for immediate impact.

All this team really needs to compete for a playoff spot is a legit top 4 dman to replace Schultz and a legit #3C to replace Lander. I don't think those assets should cost a top 3 pick to acquire.

 

[belair]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/battalions-dineen-has-a-great-mind-for-the-game/

One of the reasons I want another 2nd rounder.

This kid is extremely under the radar.

 

[Zaddy]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/battalions-dineen-has-a-great-mind-for-the-game/

One of the reasons I want another 2nd rounder.

This kid is extremely under the radar.

Without even clicking on the link the first name that popped into my mind was Cam Dineen.

 

[Lacaar]

My I clueless draft order for the Oilers if we take the pick.
Don't think i've seen any of them play outside of the WJC. It's all just good ole fashion guessing.

1. Austin Mathews
2. Patrick Laine
3. Jesse Pul whats his name
4. Chychrun
5. Juolevi
6. Dubois


I'm biased against London Knight scoring sensations playing part of a mega line. So Tkachuk can go fly a kite.

I hate BCHL d-man because all I can think of is the worlds biggest ***** of a hockey player Schultz. Maybe administer an Are you a big giant wuss test in the interviews.

Nylander is just not a match but I like the like 2 mins of hockey I saw him in the WJC.

 

[KidAnger]

My I clueless draft order for the Oilers if we take the pick.
Don't think i've seen any of them play outside of the WJC. It's all just good ole fashion guessing.

1. Austin Mathews
2. Patrick Laine
3. Jesse Pul whats his name
4. Chychrun
5. Juolevi
6. Dubois


I'm biased against London Knight scoring sensations playing part of a mega line. So Tkachuk can go fly a kite.

I hate BCHL d-man because all I can think of is the worlds biggest ***** of a hockey player Schultz. Maybe administer an Are you a big giant wuss test in the interviews.

Nylander is just not a match but I like the like 2 mins of hockey I saw him in the WJC.

Wrong Nylander. That Nylander was drafted by Toronto.

This is his little brother Alexander, who played in the WJC as well.

 

[Lacaar]

Wrong Nylander. That Nylander was drafted by Toronto.

This is his little brother Alexander, who played in the WJC as well.

Haha Didn't mean the two minutes William played before he got concussed. Though I definitely see that's how someone should interpret it.

I meant the 2 mintues of hockey I watched Sweden play. Alex looked like a good smart hockey player.

 

[Gret99zky]

 

[Tyrolean]

My I clueless draft order for the Oilers if we take the pick.
Don't think i've seen any of them play outside of the WJC. It's all just good ole fashion guessing.

1. Austin Mathews
2. Patrick Laine
3. Jesse Pul whats his name
4. Chychrun
5. Juolevi
6. Dubois


I'm biased against London Knight scoring sensations playing part of a mega line. So Tkachuk can go fly a kite.

I hate BCHL d-man because all I can think of is the worlds biggest ***** of a hockey player Schultz. Maybe administer an Are you a big giant wuss test in the interviews.

Nylander is just not a match but I like the like 2 mins of hockey I saw him in the WJC.

Juolevi should be 4th.

 

[Soundwave]

What is the story with Chychrun? Why has he dropped off so much (or not?) this season?

 

[cordlessphone]

I have a challenge for stats nerds here. If we assume the Oilers finish 29th, what are the chances that we pick at least top 3, given the new system of a lottery for each of the top 3 picks.

 

[oil Leaks]

What is the story with Chychrun? Why has he dropped off so much (or not?) this season?

Apparently the new coaching staff in Sarnia are making him play a more structured/controlled game compared to his rookie year where he was allowed to do whatever he wanted. I still have him at 4 on my list and the best defenceman at this year's draft..

 

[McDNicks17]

Brock over at ohlprospects.blogspot.ca did his Midseason Media/Scout Top 10 not too long ago.

Most of the guys he talked to seem to be really high on Chychrun still.

 

[Digger12]

It worked for Pittsburgh when they tanked shamelessly in order to draft Lemieux.

Conversely, one could also point to Quebec/Lindros as an example of a team trading away a 1st overall pick to win themselves a Cup, though that that a special case because Lindros was arguably the most hyped 1st overall pick in NHL history (not saying he was the best 1st overall obviously, just the most hyped up because of how much a physical phenomenon he was), and the Nords got a ridiculously huge return for him, the kind of return that you'll likely not see again in this era no matter who it is.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Apparently the new coaching staff in Sarnia are making him play a more structured/controlled game compared to his rookie year where he was allowed to do whatever he wanted. I still have him at 4 on my list and the best defenceman at this year's draft..

Also with all the Doughty comparisons many people were expecting better production.

 

[McDNicks17]

It's probably worth noting that the Sting were a pretty low scoring team.

I think Chychrun has something like 15 points in 16 games since the Sting picked up Travis Konecny.

 

[Game 8]

It's probably worth noting that the Sting were a pretty low scoring team.

I think Chychrun has something like 15 points in 16 games since the Sting picked up Travis Konecny.

I havent been able to find much on him laitly but he is likely our only hope to get a #1 d. If we get first overall trade down to the #2 spot for a second round draft pick. Works for me! Either that or we have some great centers to offer in trade.

 

[lakai17]

McDavid-Laine duo could be the best duo......ever.

I want Juolevi on the Oilers a lot and everyone says defence this, defence that which I understand. Laine has tools.

Chia has trading chips everywhere to assist the blueline.

 

[RedeyeRocketeer]

I have a challenge for stats nerds here. If we assume the Oilers finish 29th, what are the chances that we pick at least top 3, given the new system of a lottery for each of the top 3 picks.

Actually impossible to calculate. When another team wins the 1st overall pick, they are removed from the lotto. So the Oilers chance at the 2nd overall pick depend on who won the first. If you had to cheer for any scenario, it would be the very next worst team wins 1st overall (be that Toronto or whatever). Because once that happens, your odds at 2nd overall just got far better. If the 14th place team binks 1st overall, you've got to really hold your breath for 2nd overall because that's the worst scenario for your odds.

I can give you one scenario if you'd like (I'll round a bit up or down). Say it's Edmonton-Toronto-Buffalo in that order 29-28-27. 80% of the time Edmonton doesn't win 1st overall. If Toronto wins (13% of the time), then on the 2nd overall pick Edmonton has 23% odds (you gain 3%). 77% of the time another team is taking 2nd overall. If Edmonton doesn't get 2nd overall (and the 3rd place team Buffalo does), then on the pick for 3rd overall Edmonton now has 27% (you gain 4%) chance to get it (73% odds someone else gets it).

So in the above scenario, you've got a 36% chance of missing on all 3.

In the (unlikely) scenario that the 14th place team wins 1st overall, you gain 0 meaningful odds at 2nd overall. You're still about 20%. The good news is that it's more or less 1 in 200,000 that the 14th place team wins 1st, and the 13th place team wins 2nd (which is really the worst thing that could happen to you).

 

[Broilers]

I did draft lottery simulation
1. Oilers
2. Blue Jackets
3. Leafs

I had a feeling in my bowels that we will pick first over all: Matthews
After that we trade RNH/Draisalt + Yakopov for Subban

 

[McDrai]

I think if you draft Matthews you have to trade RNH and maybe Draisaitl as well. Although Draisaitl could be switched to the wing if needed

 

[Stud Muffin]

I think if you draft Matthews you have to trade RNH and maybe Draisaitl as well. Although Draisaitl could be switched to the wing if needed

I would just trade Matthews.

 

[Gret99zky]

I'd put the chances of MTL trading Subban at less than 1%.

They will fire Therrien long before moving their franchise player.

Unless Subban asks for a trade, he won't be leaving.

 

[cordlessphone]

Actually impossible to calculate. When another team wins the 1st overall pick, they are removed from the lotto. So the Oilers chance at the 2nd overall pick depend on who won the first. If you had to cheer for any scenario, it would be the very next worst team wins 1st overall (be that Toronto or whatever). Because once that happens, your odds at 2nd overall just got far better. If the 14th place team binks 1st overall, you've got to really hold your breath for 2nd overall because that's the worst scenario for your odds.

I can give you one scenario if you'd like (I'll round a bit up or down). Say it's Edmonton-Toronto-Buffalo in that order 29-28-27. 80% of the time Edmonton doesn't win 1st overall. If Toronto wins (13% of the time), then on the 2nd overall pick Edmonton has 23% odds (you gain 3%). 77% of the time another team is taking 2nd overall. If Edmonton doesn't get 2nd overall (and the 3rd place team Buffalo does), then on the pick for 3rd overall Edmonton now has 27% (you gain 4%) chance to get it (73% odds someone else gets it).

So in the above scenario, you've got a 36% chance of missing on all 3.

In the (unlikely) scenario that the 14th place team wins 1st overall, you gain 0 meaningful odds at 2nd overall. You're still about 20%. The good news is that it's more or less 1 in 200,000 that the 14th place team wins 1st, and the 13th place team wins 2nd (which is really the worst thing that could happen to you).

It isn't impossible to calculate, just a heck of a lot of work. We know that there are 14x13x12=2184 possible outcomes, and we can find the probability of each outcome, because we know how the odds are readjusted after each lottery. We can eliminate a number of outcomes when oilers win one of the lotteries (for example, 13x12 outcomes are redundant if oilers win the first lottery), but it's still a lot of work.

The math in your best case scenario is off a bit. The chances of missing on all three is (0.8x0.77x0.73)x100=45%. Also, there are 30 teams in the NHL, so the probability of the 29th team winning each lottery is 13.5%, 16.9%, and 19.7% in the best case scenario, so the chances of missing all three is more like (0.865x0.831x0.803)x100=58%. Worst case scenario, the chance of winning each lottery is 13.5%, 13.6%, and 13.9%, giving us a 64% chance of missing all three.