Prospect Info: The 2015 NHL Draft Thread VII

[Marshal Rochambeau]

I will always be skeptical of a forward who's points are 3 to 1 in assist

4 goals 8 points in 6 playoff games this year.

Shift by shift of Barzal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y8yKQ9j838

 

[JimEIV]

4 goals 8 points in 6 playoff games this year.

Shift by shift of Barzal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y8yKQ9j838

Am I supposed to ignore the previous 103 regular season games where he only has 26 goals?

 

[MichaelJ]

I'm not tossing him away. More making note of how guys talk down a Barzal, or a Crouse while pumping up a guy like Zacha. Based on what? Scouting reports? Crouse has those too.

And they differ a lot from Zacha's.

Barzal hasn't shown an ability to score and Crouse is more of a power forward. Zacha has the complete skillset for a top center.

 

[adixon816]

And they differ a lot from Zacha's.

Barzal hasn't shown an ability to score and Crouse is more of a power forward. Zacha has the complete skillset for a top center.

I'm genuinely curious here - if Zacha's skillset is so complete why is he being ranked around the 8-10 area in a lot of mock drafts/scout listings - what is missing from his game or what are his errors? Honestly I feel that there are multiple good choices for our #6 pick and either way we have a good chance and drafting someone successful but what makes Zacha better than the likes of Barzal but maybe not as good as Strome or Marner? From the highlight reel I saw Zacha and Barzal look good (realistically who will be available at our pick) but highlights show only so much I have not seen complete games of either.

 

[GhostofKenKlee]

In other years, guys like Barzal and Zacha would go higher. However, look at who else is on the board as well. Minus of course, McEichel.

 

[thethinglonger]

Am I supposed to ignore the previous 103 regular season games where he only has 26 goals?

Oddly enough he (Barzal) does have a very good wrist shot, but is almost entirely a pass-first player.

 

[thethinglonger]

I'm genuinely curious here - if Zacha's skillset is so complete why is he being ranked around the 8-10 area in a lot of mock drafts/scout listings - what is missing from his game or what are his errors? Honestly I feel that there are multiple good choices for our #6 pick and either way we have a good chance and drafting someone successful but what makes Zacha better than the likes of Barzal but maybe not as good as Strome or Marner? From the highlight reel I saw Zacha and Barzal look good (realistically who will be available at our pick) but highlights show only so much I have not seen complete games of either.

I've seen Zacha is different lists throughout the season putting him as high as 6th (with top-5 talent and developmental potential) and as low as 16th.

I think the two biggest knocks on Zacha are his offensive consistency -some games he doesn't show up too strongly while others he completely takes over the ice- and his play away from the puck... this includes defensive reads, support play, and leaving the defensive zone too early on the rush. These are things that can be worked out with another year or two of junior play...however his size and offensive instincts cannot be taught.

On the positive note about him, I really feel like he can become an elite talent for us within the next few years if we take the risk and draft him. Last year was his first year in North America, and he can only go up from here. He's got the size, the shot, the physicality, and the drive (when he shows up) to be a force whenever he steps onto the ice.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I'm genuinely curious here - if Zacha's skillset is so complete why is he being ranked around the 8-10 area in a lot of mock drafts/scout listings - what is missing from his game or what are his errors? Honestly I feel that there are multiple good choices for our #6 pick and either way we have a good chance and drafting someone successful but what makes Zacha better than the likes of Barzal but maybe not as good as Strome or Marner? From the highlight reel I saw Zacha and Barzal look good (realistically who will be available at our pick) but highlights show only so much I have not seen complete games of either.

Because it isn't complete. Go back a few pages and read the write ups from the prospect board. The writer is a huge Zacha fan but points out he has deficiencies in the defensive zone, and also has issues off the puck. He can get caught flat footed and doesn't read developing plays well and can take poor routes both ways and doesn't contribute to maintaining possession and the attack for his team.

Some skills that are important for a center, especially one you want to be at the top of your line up.

His strengths are his size, and uncanny speed for his size on top of a wicked and extremely fast shot. To quote he is like a "bulldog", but with his current toolset is more of a off the rush player.

Makes sense why some believe he would be more effective at the wing.

 

[OmNomNom]

i remember someone did an analysis of players and how really good ones in the WHL who score over 1 ppg had a lot of goals. but while barzal doesn't have a lot of goals, he has an insane amount of assists. its hard to find a current player who has lopsided stats like him, but does anyone know of any players in the recent past who have a similar statline to barzal in their junior years? (over 1 ppg, 3x as many assists as goals)

 

[Emperoreddy]

Both of Barzal's and Zacha's "negatives" can be developed and taught, though it doesn't seem smart to expect either to be great defensive forwards (which I don't think we are concerned with), but both aren't bad at it either.

Zacha can learn to take better reads and get better involved in plays that aren't just rushes. Barzal and learn to shoot more (he does have a good shot).

It depends on what you want. Zacha will score it seems, but he is no playmaker. Barzal is the other way around. We need both.

 

[Marshal Rochambeau]

Oddly enough he (Barzal) does have a very good wrist shot, but is almost entirely a pass-first player.

He has high hockey IQ. All it takes is a little coaching and he can learn when to shoot and when to pass.

 

[Emperoreddy]

i remember someone did an analysis of players and how really good ones in the WHL who score over 1 ppg had a lot of goals. but while barzal doesn't have a lot of goals, he has an insane amount of assists. its hard to find a current player who has lopsided stats like him, but does anyone know of any players in the recent past who have a similar statline to barzal in their junior years? (over 1 ppg, 3x as many assists as goals)

Someone put up Gomez, but that isn't recent at all.

 

[Marshal Rochambeau]

Both of Barzal's and Zacha's "negatives" can be developed and taught, though it doesn't seem smart to expect either to be great defensive forwards (which I don't think we are concerned with), but both aren't bad at it either.

Zacha can learn to take better reads and get better involved in plays that aren't just rushes. Barzal and learn to shoot more (he does have a good shot).

It depends on what you want. Zacha will score it seems, but he is no playmaker. Barzal is the other way around. We need both.

A playmaker is more important to us than a pure scorer right now. Anyone can take a shot on net but not everyone can create a play in which a shot can be turned into a goal. Barzal has that ability.

 

[Emperoreddy]

A playmaker is more important to us than a pure scorer right now. Anyone can take a shot on net but not everyone can create a play in which a shot can be turned into a goal. Barzal has that ability.

He has it in spades according to every report. He has very high IQ, he is an elite skater (read that a few times from different reports) and can read the play both on and off the puck. He makes things happen.

He does have a good shot, but he needs to use it more which we agree can be taught, especially considering he is still so young.

 

[Cheddabombs]

A playmaker is more important to us than a pure scorer right now. Anyone can take a shot on net but not everyone can create a play in which a shot can be turned into a goal. Barzal has that ability.

I'll disagree here. Anyone can take a shot on net, not everyone can take quality shots that challenge the goalie more often than not. We need both, playmakers and goalscorers, so really it doesn't matter.

 

[adixon816]

I thank both of you for your solid descriptions of Zacha's strengths and weaknesses. I do agree that many defensive aspects can be taught and would not make him a bad choice. Do you guys think Barzal's lack of goal scoring has much if anything to do with the fact that the Seattle Thunderbirds were one of the lowest scoring teams in the WHL? I'm just curious if it's all relative - say if he was on the BWK team or the Hitmen and had a healthy season would his goals not be increased? Just want to see this from all angles. It seems Barzal is touted for his high hockey IQ and ability to read the play well which is nice to see for a center.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I thank both of you for your solid descriptions of Zacha's strengths and weaknesses. I do agree that many defensive aspects can be taught and would not make him a bad choice. Do you guys think Barzal's lack of goal scoring has much if anything to do with the fact that the Seattle Thunderbirds were one of the lowest scoring teams in the WHL? I'm just curious if it's all relative - say if he was on the BWK team or the Hitmen and had a healthy season would his goals not be increased? Just want to see this from all angles. It seems Barzal is touted for his high hockey IQ and ability to read the play well which is nice to see for a center.

Ehhh the Soundbirds had injury issues for a good chunk of the year but that seemed to effect his overall scoring not his goal scoring.

From all accounts the lack of goals his him not shooting enough but passing instead. Plus he seems to over complicate plays sometimes.

 

[JimEIV]

You would think a player on a low scoring team would have fewer assist and a closer to 1 to 1 ratio, no?

 

[adixon816]

Understandable, like you said all things that can be taught over time. Truthfully I am in the camp that we need so much that there aren't to many BAD choices to be made as far as who we take as long as it's someone in the realm of the upper echelon of skill. I would not be upset with one of Marner/Strome (if they fall),Barzal, Zacha, or Rantanen. Can't wait to see how it plays out.

 

[adixon816]

You would think a player on a low scoring team would have fewer assist and a better ratio, no?

That's true as well - because he still has a good number of assists. Honestly I think we can make informed guesses but just have to hope that Conte/Shero make the right decision.

 

[Brodeur]

i remember someone did an analysis of players and how really good ones in the WHL who score over 1 ppg had a lot of goals. but while barzal doesn't have a lot of goals, he has an insane amount of assists. its hard to find a current player who has lopsided stats like him, but does anyone know of any players in the recent past who have a similar statline to barzal in their junior years? (over 1 ppg, 3x as many assists as goals)

It's a weird ratio for sure. Closest I could find of late was Jakub Voracek: 59 games, 23 goals, 63 assists during his draft year.

 

[brule2000]

I'm genuinely curious here - if Zacha's skillset is so complete why is he being ranked around the 8-10 area in a lot of mock drafts/scout listings - what is missing from his game or what are his errors? Honestly I feel that there are multiple good choices for our #6 pick and either way we have a good chance and drafting someone successful but what makes Zacha better than the likes of Barzal but maybe not as good as Strome or Marner? From the highlight reel I saw Zacha and Barzal look good (realistically who will be available at our pick) but highlights show only so much I have not seen complete games of either.

Zacha could be Jagr or he could be Viktor Kozlov. Because he's European and has missed time with injuries in his draft year I think he is being underrated. Scouts haven't seen enough to trust their observations over those of some players about whom they have more knowledge.

 

[thethinglonger]

i remember someone did an analysis of players and how really good ones in the WHL who score over 1 ppg had a lot of goals. but while barzal doesn't have a lot of goals, he has an insane amount of assists. its hard to find a current player who has lopsided stats like him, but does anyone know of any players in the recent past who have a similar statline to barzal in their junior years? (over 1 ppg, 3x as many assists as goals)

This may not be it, but it's a good breakdown:
http://www.whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2015/04/who-is-whls-top-playmaker-for-2015.html

 

[theoptimist]

I'm looking for a player that can create space for other players, whether a playmaker or goal scorer.

You cannot solely judge a playmaker by the assists they get and a goal scorer by the amount of goals they score, as intuitive as that all might seem.

 

[Tretyak 20]

I flip flop between the two. That's the tough thing with gauging prospects since we're still looking at ceilings and you could make a compelling argument that Zacha's ceiling is higher.

For me, Barzal had a tale of two seasons. To start the season, Barzal's linemate was team captain Justin Hickman. Hickman had a shoulder injury which he tried to play through, but he eventually had to have season ending surgery. Seattle's top defenseman Shea Theodore was also injured in the first half of the season.

When Barzal recovered from his knee injury, Seattle was able to bring back Roberts Lipsergs to take Hickman's vacated overage spot; Lipsergs led Seattle in goals in 2013-14. Theodore had also returned.

First half (Hickman, no Theodore): 16 games, 7 goals, 11 assists, 18 points
Second half (Lipsergs, Theodore): 28 games, 5 goals, 34 assists, 39 points

Give Barzal a linemate with two working shoulders and a puck moving D to get him the puck, and he produced at a 1.39 points/game clip. Over a full season, that's a 100 point pace.

Barzal finished 3rd in scoring at last month's U18 tournament (behind Auston Matthews and Jeremy Bracco of Team USA).

This really is a big part of my issue with Barzal. I mean, if he needs really talented linemates to play to his potential, and this is likely (short of a lottery win) the highest pick we'll have for a long time, where are those linemates coming from? I would prefer a draft pick that has shown success without great linemates.