Teams in Cap Hell for 2023/2024

[nucksflailtogether]

I know there are a lot of realistic, logical fans out there. They’re not the “homers” I’m talking about.

Those fans exist everywhere, we have no more or less. Some people use sports as a distraction from their lives and it sucks to wallow in misery for a hobby.

 

[bossram]

Those fans exist everywhere, we have no more or less. Some people use sports as a distraction from their lives and it sucks to wallow in misery for a hobby.

That’s totally fine if people want to be rah-rah and just cheer for the team. It’s probably more enjoyable that way.

But you can’t have that viewpoint and try to have a critical discussion with people trying to think more deeply about things.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Just wrong.

View attachment 711985

Poster was right when he included Murray which you removed. Only thing wrong was poster says 9 players required, when it’s 3-6. Murray can’t go on LTIR as he dressed for last game.

Posting what you did wasn’t the gotcha moment you hoped for. You don’t think poster looked at capfriendly first lol.

Honestly you could sacrifice half the Canucks players tomorrow for pure capspace and it wouldnt matter and we wouldnt notice. We have 14 forwards, 7 defenseman and two goalies signed already plus RFA Hoglander and Bear.

Brock Boeser 25% retained (4,987,500)
For
Nothing

Conor Garland 20% retained (3,960,000)
For
Nothing

Tyler Myers 50% retained (3,000,000)
For
Nothing

Vasili Podkolzin, Aiden McDonough and Tucker Poolman
For
Nothing

Nils Hoglander, Jack Rathbone and Tanner Pearson
For
Nothing

That would open up about 20 million in capspace.

We still have five (5) top 9 forwards signed in Miller, Pettersson, Kuzmenko, Mikhayev and Beauvillier.

We still have five (5) bottom 6 forwards signed in Aman, Joshua, Di Guiseppe, Dries and Studnicka.

We still have five (5) defensemen signed in Hughes, Larsson, Hronek, Brisebois and Wolanin plus RFA Bear.

We still have both goalies signed in Demko and Martin.

20 mill to add 5 players.

Only allowed 3 retains during life of CBA, not sure if used any already.

 

[Number8]

Given the draft is coming up, as is Free Agent Season just after, I thought this would be a useful discussion. If its a repeat happy to have it deleted by mods.

From my review, some really significant teams are going have serious issues next year. And by cap hell, I don't mean up against the cap, but able to be compliant (but unable to make moves) like Vancouver. Rather, high end teams who have so little cap they won't even be able to fill out their rosters without selling off assets, or paying other teams to take cap.

In no particular order, all according to Cap Friendly

Boston
$77.4 mil in Cap, around 6 in cap space, assuming 83 mil cap
14 players signed. Assuming you need about 24 min on your roster - they have 6 mil to sign 14 players. That ingores the fact they only have 28 contracts signed.
My guess is they will have to move Carlo and Taylor Hall to free up room. And no teams will give them full value given the cap issues.

Edmonton
Similar to Boston 77 mil in Cap, 6 in Cap space
17 players signed
Evan Bouchard is up and due a big raise from his ELC which will basically eat up all that cap space.
Who goes?
Yamamoto? not much value and paid 3 mil
Kane? You make a bigger hole than you can fill
RNH? Same as Kane
Maybe you can move Ceci for a bag of pucks but he's only paid 3.25
You can't move Nurse and the worst contract in the NHL 9.25 mil LOL!
You aren't moving Campbell, unless you give up draft picks

Tampa
76 mil in cap, 7 mil in cap space
16 players signed
Backup goalie needed
Killorn is a UFA so he's gone
Tanner Jeanot is a RFA coming off his ELC so he's due a raise
Cernak salary goes up to 5.2, Sergachev goes up to 8.5 - does one of them have to be moved?

Minnesota
75 mil in Cap, 9 mil in cap space (900k LTIR)
15 players under contract
Dumba and Klinberg UFA's so 2 big holes in their D

Las Vegas
80 mil cap, 3 mil in cap space
20 roster players signed
Aiden Hill is a UFA
Not sure what's up with Lehner but if he comes off LTIR they are 2 mil over the cap
Barbashev, Bleuger, Kessell UFA's - those are holes that have to be filled
Not the worst of the bunch but still will have to make some moves and will lose key good pieces.


As mentioned I left Vancouver off because once they get to LTIR, they are cap compliant and have no roster spots they have to fill. These other teams have little cap and alot of roster spots to address.

Curious to hear other's thoughts, and maybe other teams?

Bullshit. The Bruins have the Cap right where they want it. It’s backed into the corner, feeling threatened, and will buckle any moment now.

I see no problems at all.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

When is this supposed big bump in the cap going to occur? 24-25? Everything should be repaid by then. PA adamant about escrow at 6%. If the cap is anything less than $89 mill or $90 mill is that a major disappointment for 24-25?

Yes, it's supposed to occur then. There was a chance it could've occurred after this season, as the debt is almost paid off, but it isn't quite paid off.

 

[TBF1972]

The existence of cap hell implies the existence of cap heaven.

there is

you might know it by a different name.

it's called ltir

 

[Fourier]

I think Flames/Canucks fans that need it to be explained to them that PP goals count the same as ES goals are confusing a few things, lol.

Everyone and their grandma knows McDavid and Draisaitl run the PP, evidence of that is fairly easy to point to ... the PP was clicking at a historic rate *without* Bouchard with Barrie instead while Bouchard was having a rough season putting up points until he got to go on the PP.

He would have a case if he was like an integral piece to the PP, but they already proved that they can be lights out with Barrie, frankly you could probably put Ekholm on the point on the PP and they'd still be lights out. The point D's responsibility on the Oilers PP is really just to get the puck to McDavid or Draisaitl and let them carve teams apart East/West.

Evander Kane was tied for no.1 in goals in the playoffs last year thanks in part to playing with McDavid/Drai super-line, did that mean he got $8+ million automatically? No, most people understand playing with McDavid/Draisaitl can juice your stats.

If Evan Bouchard wants to claim he's way better than Noah Dobson and deserves to be paid a lot more, he needs to explain why Dobson has better regular season production for the last two seasons (100 points for Dobson versus 83 points for Bouchard). I'm pretty sure Dobson would put up a lot of points on the Oilers PP too.

To be honest I don't think it would be the worst idea in the world if the Oilers sold high on Bouchard and got back a big ticket player (like a Hellebuyck) and then just reaquired Tyson Barrie for peanuts later on in the season.

I will add one more name to your list of who runs the pp in Edmonton: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. His role has proved difficult to replace. In his absence the pp has been much less effective. But your point remains that the point man and the fourth forward have been mostly interchangeable without a significant impact on the results.

I do think Bouchard will get paid but possibly not this year, which is likely the last where the Oilers are very tight to the cap. That said, cap hell is certainly not a term I would use especially if the cap goes up by more than the $1M currently on the books. It means One or more of Yamamoto and Foegele will need to go to be replaced by Holloway and perhaps someone else. I doubt that makes a whole lot of difference to the team.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Looks like Vancouver wins, after having to buyout OEL to make space. He was overpaid though.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Edmonton’s situation isn’t really that dire. We need to sign Bouchard, McLeod, and Kostin. We likely trade or buyout Yamamoto, might have to trade Foegele too but he’ll get a decent return.

 

[mikemodanoredwings]

for people checking in,

tl:dr, user makes post using mathematics and logic, as well as projections based on similar prdouction. fanbases disagree and insist this is all a part of the plan to win the stanley cup.

sometimes it's ok to look at your own team objectively and realize there may be an issue

 

[cowboy82nd]

Bergeron has been playing with injuries and he pushed for one more year. I think him and Marchand crying at the end and hugging it out says the idea of him coming back is silly.

Maybe Krejci comes back

So under your ideas (which I doubt, because in a cap tight league people don't throw around 3 mil for crappy dmen, but for the sake of argument lets accept that). That gives you $10 mil for 9 players to sign. You do know the league min is like 900k or so right?

So basically you take out bergeron, bertuzzi, nosek, hathaway, orlov, foligno, and clifton and you replace them with 900k players and think they're not in trouble? What? And I don't think Krejci is taking league min either.

I guess you're also forgetting that a 24 year old goalie of their Future, who who had a record of 24-6-4 and a .920 save percentage is an RFA due for a HUGE raise which eats up half of that cap room you created.

Even if Bergeron came back as did Krejci, and both accepted 1 mil with bonus laden contracts, then add in Swayman getting 5 mil that takes away 7 mil of your 10 mil you created (which again I would contest).

So now you have 3 mil to sign 6-7 players? League min is 900k

I'm pretty sure the math doesn't work

Math friend math, your math won't work

Just for the record, the league minimum for this year (2023-2024) is $775,000.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Dumba has been replaced by Faber and Klingberg was depth at best.

 

[Orfieus]

Agreed, and when it comes to contracts, PP or special teams points are not 'worth less" than 5 on 5 points. Only advanced stats nerds think so, agents and teams dont, this is what our friend doesn't seem to understand.

His assumption is clearly that points on the PP aren't 'worth as much because 5 on 5 points are harder to get".

Yup 5 on 5 play is a better reflection of a true talent. That being said, its not how contracts are determined, a point is a point regardless where it came from.

Moreover, most high end offensive players have alot of points on the PP, its common sense, since they get alot of PP time.

If our friend's view is correct, I guess McDavid got 6 million too much since 1/2 his points come on the PP lol.

With how little the cap is going up teams that do make the distinction between 5v5 and PP points will be better off than the teams that don't

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Las Vegas
80 mil cap, 3 mil in cap space
20 roster players signed
Aiden Hill is a UFA
Not sure what's up with Lehner but if he comes off LTIR they are 2 mil over the cap
Barbashev, Bleuger, Kessell UFA's - those are holes that have to be filled
Not the worst of the bunch but still will have to make some moves and will lose key good pieces.

Lehner is the big question mark. He broke communication with the team, nobody knows the status of his injury or rehabilitation if any, and nobody can even find him except the occasional wily process server. It ain't good when a player lists his address as "c/o U.S. Bankruptcy Trustee".

Vegas probably will not pay Hill and Marchessault what they can get elsewhere, so they are probably gone (yes, Vegas will let a Conn Smythe winner walk, but Marchy is 32 years old). Good for them, they deserve whatever better retirement contract they get. Logan Thompson will return as the #1 goalie at $775,000 per year, though they will likely resign him sooner or later in the Oettinger range.

Vegas would like to sign Barbashev, but they won't overpay for him.

Blueger and Kessel ... uh, yeah. They can stay if the price is right because senior leadership is valued, but the right price will be at the low end of things.

I suspect Quick retires.

Otherwise, team will fill in with Cotter and Dorofeyev, etc., as necessary, until the TDL.

 

[Dread Clawz]

More proof that 82M is absolutely stupid to work around with on an NHL roster

No it's not, it's completely fine. There are just a lot of bad GM's out there.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Edmonton’s situation isn’t really that dire. We need to sign Bouchard, McLeod, and Kostin. We likely trade or buyout Yamamoto, might have to trade Foegele too but he’ll get a decent return.

The situation isn't so dire, but how do you ice a better team next year with these restrictions? That's my main question. Seems like last year's Oilers had the best shot at doing it, unless they can get creative with Campbell and Nurse. Not saying they can't get better but will take some bold and unexpected moves IMO

M

Lehner is the big question mark. He broke communication with the team, nobody knows the status of his injury or rehabilitation if any, and nobody can even find him except the occasional wily process server. It ain't good when a player lists his address as "c/o U.S. Bankruptcy Trustee".

Vegas probably will not pay Hill and Marchessault what they can get elsewhere, so they are probably gone (yes, Vegas will let a Conn Smythe winner walk, but Marchy is 32 years old). Good for them, they deserve whatever better retirement contract they get. Logan Thompson will return as the #1 goalie at $775,000 per year, though they will likely resign him sooner or later in the Oettinger range.

Vegas would like to sign Barbashev, but they won't overpay for him.

Blueger and Kessel ... uh, yeah. They can stay if the price is right because senior leadership is valued, but the right price will be at the low end of things.

I suspect Quick retires.

Otherwise, team will fill in with Cotter and Dorofeyev, etc., as necessary, until the TDL.

Marchessault still has a year on his deal. Are you saying they'll trade him?

 

[Senor Catface]

for people checking in,

tl:dr, user makes post using mathematics and logic, as well as projections based on similar prdouction. fanbases disagree and insist this is all a part of the plan to win the stanley cup.

sometimes it's ok to look at your own team objectively and realize there may be an issue

Considering OP is banned, and you come talking about his (lol) "mathematics and logic" I really wonder who YOU are.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

The situation isn't so dire, but how do you ice a better team next year with these restrictions? That's my main question. Seems like last year's Oilers had the best shot at doing it, unless they can get creative with Campbell and Nurse. Not saying they can't get better but will take some bold and unexpected moves IMO

M

Marchessault still has a year on his deal. Are you saying they'll trade him?

Yeah, it's pretty dependent on how creative Holland (and Holland Jr and Steve Staios) can get with their moves.

Kane-McDavid-Hyman
RNH-Draisaitl-XXX (Connor Brown)
Foegele-McLeod-Ryan
Kostin-Holloway-XXX (Noel Acciari)
XXX (Raphael Lavoie)

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Desharnais
Broberg

Skinner
Campbell

Based on recent rumours in town and players the Oilers have had previous interest in, that's probably pretty close to what opening night looks like next year. It sounds like Yamamoto is likely a goner in and around the draft, likely to somewhere like Chicago for something like a third rounder.

Edmonton also went 11-7 frequently so it wouldn't surprise me if they did that again.

That gets the Oilers up to about 8 million in space, likely enough for something like:

Bouchard (1 year, 3.25 mil)
McLeod (2 years, 1.75 mil)
Kostin (1 year, 1 mil)
Brown (1 year, 1 mil, games played bonuses)
Acciari (1 year, 900k, bonuses, etc)

The biggest glaring hole in the new lineup is obviously in Ceci's spot, which I think they'll look to upgrade as the year goes on.

Raphael Lavoie is the big darkhorse. He had a fantastic finish to the year in the AHL and has NHL size and an NHL shot. If he has a good summer training and impresses in camp, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see him get a look with RNH and Leon to start the year off.

 

[Golden_Jet]

for people checking in,

tl:dr, user makes post using mathematics and logic, as well as projections based on similar prdouction. fanbases disagree and insist this is all a part of the plan to win the stanley cup.

sometimes it's ok to look at your own team objectively and realize there may be an issue

Hey nuckster is back with post #1 under new username.

Considering OP is banned, and you come talking about his (lol) "mathematics and logic" I really wonder who YOU are.

Good catch with post #1

 

[Freaky Styley]

Yeah, it's pretty dependent on how creative Holland (and Holland Jr and Steve Staios) can get with their moves.

Kane-McDavid-Hyman
RNH-Draisaitl-XXX (Connor Brown)
Foegele-McLeod-Ryan
Kostin-Holloway-XXX (Noel Acciari)
XXX (Raphael Lavoie)

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Desharnais
Broberg

Skinner
Campbell

Based on recent rumours in town and players the Oilers have had previous interest in, that's probably pretty close to what opening night looks like next year. It sounds like Yamamoto is likely a goner in and around the draft, likely to somewhere like Chicago for something like a third rounder.

Edmonton also went 11-7 frequently so it wouldn't surprise me if they did that again.

That gets the Oilers up to about 8 million in space, likely enough for something like:

Bouchard (1 year, 3.25 mil)
McLeod (2 years, 1.75 mil)
Kostin (1 year, 1 mil)
Brown (1 year, 1 mil, games played bonuses)
Acciari (1 year, 900k, bonuses, etc)

The biggest glaring hole in the new lineup is obviously in Ceci's spot, which I think they'll look to upgrade as the year goes on.

Raphael Lavoie is the big darkhorse. He had a fantastic finish to the year in the AHL and has NHL size and an NHL shot. If he has a good summer training and impresses in camp, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see him get a look with RNH and Leon to start the year off.

I think you're lowballing most of those contracts. Brown & Accari can get more elsewhere, and that seems like a bargain for the RFAs. Not saying they take much more but probably 250-500K more each which will add up.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I think you're lowballing most of those contracts. Brown & Accari can get more elsewhere, and that seems like a bargain for the RFAs. Not saying they take much more but probably 250-500K more each which will add up.

Brown only played four games this year. Wherever he goes, it's almost assuredly going to be on a one year show me deal. He could probably get more, yeah, but a year on Leon's wing and seeing time with McDavid could do a lot for his value.

Those numbers are just what's being tossed around locally. Holland stinks at signing UFA's, but he is known for grinding his RFA's pretty hard. Foegele or Kulak might end up a cap casualty as well, but I think we'd get decent returns for both.

 

[the_fan]

Two words…..

Fake LTIR.:.

Ok that’s actually 5 words but you know what I’m saying

 

[Freaky Styley]

Brown only played four games this year. Wherever he goes, it's almost assuredly going to be on a one year show me deal. He could probably get more, yeah, but a year on Leon's wing and seeing time with McDavid could do a lot for his value.

Those numbers are just what's being tossed around locally. Holland stinks at signing UFA's, but he is known for grinding his RFA's pretty hard. Foegele or Kulak might end up a cap casualty as well, but I think we'd get decent returns for both.

Ya I hear you. Still, Brown could sign for 2M with Chicago and be on Bedards wing. Or sign in Toronto where he is beloved and play with Matthews. So he's got some options.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Yeah, it's pretty dependent on how creative Holland (and Holland Jr and Steve Staios) can get with their moves.

Kane-McDavid-Hyman
RNH-Draisaitl-XXX (Connor Brown)
Foegele-McLeod-Ryan
Kostin-Holloway-XXX (Noel Acciari)
XXX (Raphael Lavoie)

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Desharnais
Broberg

Skinner
Campbell

Based on recent rumours in town and players the Oilers have had previous interest in, that's probably pretty close to what opening night looks like next year. It sounds like Yamamoto is likely a goner in and around the draft, likely to somewhere like Chicago for something like a third rounder.

Edmonton also went 11-7 frequently so it wouldn't surprise me if they did that again.

That gets the Oilers up to about 8 million in space, likely enough for something like:

Bouchard (1 year, 3.25 mil)
McLeod (2 years, 1.75 mil)
Kostin (1 year, 1 mil)
Brown (1 year, 1 mil, games played bonuses)
Acciari (1 year, 900k, bonuses, etc)

The biggest glaring hole in the new lineup is obviously in Ceci's spot, which I think they'll look to upgrade as the year goes on.

Raphael Lavoie is the big darkhorse. He had a fantastic finish to the year in the AHL and has NHL size and an NHL shot. If he has a good summer training and impresses in camp, I wouldn't be at all shocked to see him get a look with RNH and Leon to start the year off.

There a lot of Browns, which one are you talking about.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

There a lot of Browns, which one are you talking about.

I literally used his whole first name in the mock lineup