Teams in Cap Hell for 2023/2024

[wintersej]

I don't think your scenario is necessarily wrong but I think the money is light on a lot of these players. Also dumping 6m in salary and taking none back for average players when you are in a cap crunch doesn't happen that often.

I don't think they have to give away Carlo or Swayman, but I also don't think they will get rid of 6 mil in salary without giving up something with it. Schenn's number I think is light i think he prob gets double that.

They can buyout Forbort instead and trade Gryz get enough savings. I can't imagine there won't be a taker for Gryz. He is one of the better guys in the neutral zone in the league. If Schenn is getting more than double his salary from last year at 34 years old, cool, they can sign someone else.

 

[TLEH]

They can buyout Forbort instead and trade Gryz get enough savings. I can't imagine there won't be a taker for Gryz. He is one of the better guys in the neutral zone in the league. If Schenn is getting more than double his salary from last year at 34 years old, cool, they can sign someone else.

Yeah. I understand your point that Carlo and Swayman won't get given away, and I agree. Not sure why I am arguing semantics about how to get there.

 

[wintersej]

Yeah. I understand your point that Carlo and Swayman won't get given away, and I agree. Not sure why I am arguing semantics about how to get there.

Because there is no hockey being played right now to watch.

 

[TLEH]

Because there is no hockey being played right now to watch.

& work is boring

 

[BLNY]

Given the draft is coming up, as is Free Agent Season just after, I thought this would be a useful discussion. If its a repeat happy to have it deleted by mods.

From my review, some really significant teams are going have serious issues next year. And by cap hell, I don't mean up against the cap, but able to be compliant (but unable to make moves) like Vancouver. Rather, high end teams who have so little cap they won't even be able to fill out their rosters without selling off assets, or paying other teams to take cap.

In no particular order, all according to Cap Friendly

Boston
$77.4 mil in Cap, around 6 in cap space, assuming 83 mil cap
14 players signed. Assuming you need about 24 min on your roster - they have 6 mil to sign 14 players. That ingores the fact they only have 28 contracts signed.
My guess is they will have to move Carlo and Taylor Hall to free up room. And no teams will give them full value given the cap issues.

Edmonton
Similar to Boston 77 mil in Cap, 6 in Cap space
17 players signed
Evan Bouchard is up and due a big raise from his ELC which will basically eat up all that cap space.
Who goes?
Yamamoto? not much value and paid 3 mil
Kane? You make a bigger hole than you can fill
RNH? Same as Kane
Maybe you can move Ceci for a bag of pucks but he's only paid 3.25
You can't move Nurse and the worst contract in the NHL 9.25 mil LOL!
You aren't moving Campbell, unless you give up draft picks

Tampa
76 mil in cap, 7 mil in cap space
16 players signed
Backup goalie needed
Killorn is a UFA so he's gone
Tanner Jeanot is a RFA coming off his ELC so he's due a raise
Cernak salary goes up to 5.2, Sergachev goes up to 8.5 - does one of them have to be moved?

Minnesota
75 mil in Cap, 9 mil in cap space (900k LTIR)
15 players under contract
Dumba and Klinberg UFA's so 2 big holes in their D

Las Vegas
80 mil cap, 3 mil in cap space
20 roster players signed
Aiden Hill is a UFA
Not sure what's up with Lehner but if he comes off LTIR they are 2 mil over the cap
Barbashev, Bleuger, Kessell UFA's - those are holes that have to be filled
Not the worst of the bunch but still will have to make some moves and will lose key good pieces.


As mentioned I left Vancouver off because once they get to LTIR, they are cap compliant and have no roster spots they have to fill. These other teams have little cap and alot of roster spots to address.

Curious to hear other's thoughts, and maybe other teams?

Edmonton
Yamamoto and Ceci are the clear choices. Don't expect much of anything. Might be buyouts.

Tampa
Killorn money should be spent on a backup. I think Montreal keeps Allen, but he'd be a pretty ideal target.
Jeannot will be interesting. Do they keep him? Do they trade his rights at the draft?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Given the draft is coming up, as is Free Agent Season just after, I thought this would be a useful discussion. If its a repeat happy to have it deleted by mods.

From my review, some really significant teams are going have serious issues next year. And by cap hell, I don't mean up against the cap, but able to be compliant (but unable to make moves) like Vancouver. Rather, high end teams who have so little cap they won't even be able to fill out their rosters without selling off assets, or paying other teams to take cap.

In no particular order, all according to Cap Friendly

Boston
$77.4 mil in Cap, around 6 in cap space, assuming 83 mil cap
14 players signed. Assuming you need about 24 min on your roster - they have 6 mil to sign 14 players. That ingores the fact they only have 28 contracts signed.
My guess is they will have to move Carlo and Taylor Hall to free up room. And no teams will give them full value given the cap issues.

Edmonton
Similar to Boston 77 mil in Cap, 6 in Cap space
17 players signed
Evan Bouchard is up and due a big raise from his ELC which will basically eat up all that cap space.
Who goes?
Yamamoto? not much value and paid 3 mil
Kane? You make a bigger hole than you can fill
RNH? Same as Kane
Maybe you can move Ceci for a bag of pucks but he's only paid 3.25
You can't move Nurse and the worst contract in the NHL 9.25 mil LOL!
You aren't moving Campbell, unless you give up draft picks

Tampa
76 mil in cap, 7 mil in cap space
16 players signed
Backup goalie needed
Killorn is a UFA so he's gone
Tanner Jeanot is a RFA coming off his ELC so he's due a raise
Cernak salary goes up to 5.2, Sergachev goes up to 8.5 - does one of them have to be moved?

Minnesota
75 mil in Cap, 9 mil in cap space (900k LTIR)
15 players under contract
Dumba and Klinberg UFA's so 2 big holes in their D

Las Vegas
80 mil cap, 3 mil in cap space
20 roster players signed
Aiden Hill is a UFA
Not sure what's up with Lehner but if he comes off LTIR they are 2 mil over the cap
Barbashev, Bleuger, Kessell UFA's - those are holes that have to be filled
Not the worst of the bunch but still will have to make some moves and will lose key good pieces.


As mentioned I left Vancouver off because once they get to LTIR, they are cap compliant and have no roster spots they have to fill. These other teams have little cap and alot of roster spots to address.

Curious to hear other's thoughts, and maybe other teams?

Who are the Canucks putting on LTIR come October, that you would know about for sure already. What are their injuries?

 

[Nuckster]

Good initial post OP. That guy you just responded to seems triggered as hell

Ya I don't get why people seem to be angry at stating facts and math lol. I am a canuck fan and yep Benning did a number on us, so we are screwed at trying to improve until probably next year, but we still have a full roster at least. And, after this next season, alot of the Canucks lack of cap flexibility is gone. Stand pat for a year and fix it next, who cares. High pick again, Petey and Hughes are still young and then start pushing.

Seems some others get angry because their GM's mismanaged their caps and its going to take some hard decisions to fix it and still be in win now mode. Alot of is is because no one anticipated a flat cap for 3-4 years due to covid, how could they,, but its impacted all of these teams.

To suggest these teams don't A) have cap issues B) need to make changes because they are in win now mode C) are stuck and unable to make changes because of cap issues, is a bit delusional imho. The math is the math.

What I think will be interesting is to watch how these teams manage the offseason, what they may have to "pay" to fix their cap issues, and who will take advantage of them. Az doesn't want to spend so I don't see them taking on any contracts with term, Chicago may be the beneficiary and hold teams hostage given all their cap space.

 

[Nuckster]

Who are the Canucks putting on LTIR come October, that you would know about for sure already.

Poolman is done. He has had concussion after concussion and has tried to come back 3 times in the past 2 years only to be shut down. To assume he can come back is silly.

Second, even if they don't get the LTIR on Poolman, there's Pearson who's career may also be over. In his post season interview he said he is just focused on trying to live a normal life....but even assume both of those players come back somehow....

Tyler Myers has a $6 mil contract. On Sept 1 he gets paid $5 mil of that $6 mil. Therefore, on a cash basis he's due only $1 mil. He's a 6'6" RD who can skate and is physical, with a $6 mil cap hit but only $1 mil cash salary and his contract expires after the 2023/24 season. So he's a prime UFA rental at the deadline.

I am pretty sure a cap floor team would happily take that on, even just for the season to flip him at the deadline where he will get a 2nd round pick or even more. Particularly given the demand for big RD who can skate in the league. Every playoff team will happily buy him as a rental at the deadline, and a cap floor team would be happy to have that asset to flip for picks as they try and rebuild.

That ignores the fact they will move one of Beuvillier or Garland (or both) in the offseason. And Beuvillier is easily moved. He was .62 ppg with the Canucks, has been good in the playoffs, and is on a 4.5 mil contract that's expiring (again, an asset a bottom feeder team will love even for deadline trades and return). Garland may be a bit tougher but his stats show 5 on 5 he's been on of the best in the league. Canucks have a plethora of wingers so moving one of both of those guys doesn't hurt them.

Hell, with all of Chicago's cap space, and Bedard coming I could see Chicago happily taking all three of those players. Bedard is going to need some NHL players around him, and right now Chicago is a wasteland.

Basically, that Canucks have alot of options on the table. If they retain some "cap" on Myers and Beuvillier they are well into cap compliance even if Pearson and Poolman are back. And given both those contracts expire, it means nothing to them (Canucks) to retain for one year. Is it optimal? No because it would be better to keep them and move them at the deadline for picks but so be it.

My guess is Poolman is done so this issue is moot. They are only 600k over the cap (and importantly have a FULL roster). After next season they have alot of flexiblity so they would just have to sit tight (sadly) and go with what they have for one more year.

There is a misnomer in the media that the Canucks are in "cap trouble". No they are not.

If they want to make moves to address holes and make big improvements, then correct they don't have the cap to do so.

But if they stand pat they can ice a full roster. This is not cap hell

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

 

[Bear of Bad News]

The existence of cap hell implies the existence of cap heaven.

 

[njdevils1982]

The existence of cap hell implies the existence of cap heaven.

what about 'capurgatory'?

 

[herzausstein]

what about 'capurgatory'?

Thats more where id put edmonton. They have some easy paths to cap compliance but making any meaningful improvements to the team may be difficult

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

The existence of cap hell implies the existence of cap heaven.

Chicago is in cap heaven.

Thats more where id put edmonton. They have some easy paths to cap compliance but making any meaningful improvements to the team may be difficult

They need Broberg to step up, Bouchard to keep up his pace, and Campbell and Skinner to be a bit better. I think it's doable.

 

[herzausstein]

Chicago is in cap heaven.



They need Broberg to step up, Bouchard to keep up his pace, and Campbell and Skinner to be a bit better. I think it's doable.

I think younger players getting better is a decent bet but also will be offset by others not having career years

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I think younger players getting better is a decent bet but also will be offset by others not having career years

tbf they don't need McDavid and Draisaitl to have career years to win the cup. RNH's regular season career year meant nothing.

 

[Nuckster]

Chicago is in cap heaven.



They need Broberg to step up, Bouchard to keep up his pace, and Campbell and Skinner to be a bit better. I think it's doable.

Bouchard is up this year, end of his ELC, hes going to want BIG money, that Edmonton doesn't have

43 pts in 81 games last year +10
9 pts in 16 games in the playoffs

This year
40 pts in 82 games +6
17 pts in 12 games

26 pts in 28 playoff games as a Dman.

Not suggesting this doesn't have alot to do with McD and Drai and PP time but its also the way the league works, get points get paid. When you factor in his raise they're in a muck.

 

[Nuckster]

[mod]

The team solves the issue of expiring cheap UFA contracts by getting more cheap UFA/RFA contracts. Assuming the minimum projected bump, we have 7.6M of cap (83.5-75.9) to sign 3RFA and 1UFA, or 10.6M of cap to sign 3RFA and 2UFA (minus Yamo). Bouch's comparable bridge is Dobson at 4M.

Bouch (4.5M)
Kostin (1.35M)
Mcleod (2M)
Bjug (1.25M)
Ryan (1.5M) - or let him go and re-sign shore for 1M.
Total = 10.6M (11F, 7D, 2G)

I will be very surprised if Bouchard signs for 4 mil

43 points in 2021/22 - 9 pts in 16 games in the playoffs
40 points in 2022/23 - 17 pts in 12 games in the playoffs

Dobson only had one solid pt producing year before his ELC was up. There was a clear argument to "prove it"

Bouchard has had 2 excellent seasons in a row, he has nothing to prove. Add in that he has 26 pts in 28 playoff games as a defensman (when dobson has nothing close to the same at re-signing) and I doubt he's giving anyone any 'deals'.

I also don't think his agent is going to let him sign for that, nor the NHLPA. They dislike players taking discounts to market value

 

[North Cole]

Bouchard is not taking 4 mil

43 points in 2021/22 - 9 pts in 16 games in the playoffs
40 points in 2022/23 - 17 pts in 12 games in the playoffs

Dobson only had one solid pt producing year before his ELC was up. There was a clear argument to "prove it"

Bouchard has had 2 excellent seasons in a row, he has nothing to prove. Add in that he has 26 pts in 28 playoff games as a defensman (when dobson has nothing close to the same at re-signing) and he's not giving anyone any 'deals'. If you think he's signing for 4 mil lol smh

You think his agent is going to let him sign for that? the NHLPA? LOL

He's been the comparable player with many saying they still take him over Bouchard, doubt that's changed after one 2nd round playoff run with massively juiced PP production. Dobson isn't playing on the greatest power play unit of all time. All we heard this playoffs was that Oilers are powerplay merchants, we don't get to start aggregating stats for all situations to make the cap look worse.

He had 25 ESP this year in 82 games, Dobson had 25 in 80 last year and 26 this year. Bouchard had massively inflated totals in small playoff sample where 15 of his 17 points where on the powerplay lmao.

Given the cap is projected to explode in the next couple years, I can see some merit to the idea that an agent would recommend he continue betting on himself given he will now get 82 games of PP1 time. Lines his next contract up nicely to re-up in a 90M+ cap world and eating up more UFA years, like Nurse. If he wants to sign an offersheet and go somewhere else, so be it, not sure why he would want to leave the situation he's in which both massively benefits his production individually, and the team is contending.

That you think the NHLPA has any real pull in what bridge AAV an RFA signs on his first deal, is certainly an LOL moment, just not for the reason you seem to think.

 

[Nuckster]

He's been the comparable player with many saying they still take him over Bouchard, doubt that's changed after one 2nd round playoff run with massively juiced PP production. Dobson isn't playing on the greatest power play unit of all time. All we heard this playoffs was that Oilers are powerplay merchants, we don't get to start aggregating stats for all situations to make the cap look worse.

He had 25 ESP this year in 82 games, Dobson had 25 in 80 last year and 26 this year. Bouchard had massively inflated totals in small playoff sample where 15 of his 17 points where on the powerplay lmao.

Given the cap is projected to explode in the next couple years, I can see some merit to the idea that an agent would recommend he continue betting on himself given he will now get 82 games of PP1 time. With his next contract re-upping in a 90M+ cap world and eating up more UFA years, like Nurse. If he wants to sign an offersheet and go somewhere else, so be it, not sure why he would want to leave the situation he's in which both massively benefits his production individually, and the team is contending.

That you think the NHLPA has any real pull in what bridge AAV an RFA signs on his first deal, is certainly an LOL moment, just not for the reason you seem to think.

Are you actually trying to argue that 26 pts in 28 playoff games doesn't have weight? Do you have any idea how hard almost a ppg in the playoffs is? Go look at how few players have done it and their names.

And that because he got more pp points than Dobson that they 'dont count' or shouldn't have weight in a negoatiation? This isn't advanced stats 101 with hockey nerds playing who's done the best data analysis.

Last time I checked players are paid x per goal, x per assists as comps not if its on the PP, EV, or SH

Time will tell

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Calgary, who is a non-playoff team so not good.

Not ideal no, but we've got some guys on ELC's that are ready that should help alleviate it.

Duehr, Pelletier, Wolf, Coronato, and maybe even Zary. Still probably need to move out Vladar and someone else to be comfortable though.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Are you actually trying to argue that 26 pts in 28 playoff games doesn't have weight? Do you have any idea how hard almost a ppg in the playoffs is? Go look at how few players have done it and their names.

And that because he got more pp points than Dobson that they 'dont count' or shouldn't have weight in a negoatiation? This isn't advanced stats 101 with hockey nerds playing who's done the best data analysis.

Last time I checked players are paid x per goal, x per assists as comps not if its on the PP, EV, or SH

Time will tell

15 out of 17 points this playoff are PP points.

 

[North Cole]

Are you actually trying to argue that 26 pts in 28 playoff games doesn't have weight? And that because he got more pp points than Dobson that they 'dont count'?

Last time I checked players are paid x per goal, x per assists as comps not if its on the PP, EV, or SH

Time will tell

Did you even check though?
2021-22 Dobson (all situations) = 13-38-51
2022-23 Dobson (all situations) = 13-36-49

2021-22 Bouch (all situations) = 12-31-43
2022-23 Bouch (all situations) = 8-32-40

Dobson signed between those two years, Bouch is signing after his two years. Even if you want to angle that Bouch has two years and doesn't have to prove it, neither regular season reaches the offensive height as Dobson, while Dobson is also better defensively. I even put Bouch at 500K higher to account for some of the powerplay growth and you're still getting worked up about it, while providing zero AAV yourself.

Playoffs clearly have weight, they just aren't driving some crazy premium...he plays on a powerplay unit that spent 3/4 of the season trending to be the highest efficiency of all time without Bouch even on it lmao. We can point to PP points all we want, the answer is - you are fighting with RNH for the 3rd most impactful player on the unit. He adds a new weapon to it with his slapshot, but let's not pretend the PP success lives and dies by Bouch.

OTOH you can also replay all of the defensive failures in the playoffs, like when he fell over skating backwards and gave Eichel a free goal.

 

[Spurgeon]

Minnesota’s fine.

Kap - Rossi - Zucc
Johansson - Ek - Boldy
Foligno - Gaudreau - Hartman
X - Dewar - X

Brodin - Faber
Middleton - Spurgeon
Goli - Merrill

Fleury
X

$7.3M to sign Gus, Duhaime, and then another 4th liner. That roster is practically identically to what they rolled out last year except they’ve got Faber replacing Dumba.

They can likely (hopefully) move Foligno and Goli if they need to.

 

[BCNate]

Poolman is done. He has had concussion after concussion and has tried to come back 3 times in the past 2 years only to be shut down. To assume he can come back is silly.

Second, even if they don't get the LTIR on Poolman, there's Pearson who's career may also be over. In his post season interview he said he is just focused on trying to live a normal life....but even assume both of those players come back somehow....

Tyler Myers has a $6 mil contract. On Sept 1 he gets paid $5 mil of that $6 mil. Therefore, on a cash basis he's due only $1 mil. He's a 6'6" RD who can skate and is physical, with a $6 mil cap hit but only $1 mil cash salary and his contract expires after the 2023/24 season. So he's a prime UFA rental at the deadline.

I am pretty sure a cap floor team would happily take that on, even just for the season to flip him at the deadline where he will get a 2nd round pick or even more. Particularly given the demand for big RD who can skate in the league. Every playoff team will happily buy him as a rental at the deadline, and a cap floor team would be happy to have that asset to flip for picks as they try and rebuild.

That ignores the fact they will move one of Beuvillier or Garland (or both) in the offseason. And Beuvillier is easily moved. He was .62 ppg with the Canucks, has been good in the playoffs, and is on a 4.5 mil contract that's expiring (again, an asset a bottom feeder team will love even for deadline trades and return). Garland may be a bit tougher but his stats show 5 on 5 he's been on of the best in the league. Canucks have a plethora of wingers so moving one of both of those guys doesn't hurt them.

Hell, with all of Chicago's cap space, and Bedard coming I could see Chicago happily taking all three of those players. Bedard is going to need some NHL players around him, and right now Chicago is a wasteland.

Basically, that Canucks have alot of options on the table. If they retain some "cap" on Myers and Beuvillier they are well into cap compliance even if Pearson and Poolman are back. And given both those contracts expire, it means nothing to them (Canucks) to retain for one year. Is it optimal? No because it would be better to keep them and move them at the deadline for picks but so be it.

My guess is Poolman is done so this issue is moot. They are only 600k over the cap (and importantly have a FULL roster). After next season they have alot of flexiblity so they would just have to sit tight (sadly) and go with what they have for one more year.

There is a misnomer in the media that the Canucks are in "cap trouble". No they are not.

If they want to make moves to address holes and make big improvements, then correct they don't have the cap to do so.

But if they stand pat they can ice a full roster. This is not cap hell

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

I'm not suggesting the Canucks are a strong team without making any changes, but our biggest issues were awful goaltending, poor defense (both producing and defending), and a historically bad PK.

Getting Mikheyev back will help to addess the PK. He looked really good and was producing up until he got surgery. He was playing with an injured knee up unti that point. He will help, and his $ is already on the books.

Hronek should also help address our the right side of our D as well. He isn't a shutdown D by any means, but moves the puck well and puts up points. Despite being poor defensively, our D core didn't produce much aside from Hughes. Hronek will help in that regard.

Demko came back from injury and played like Demko. He was awful in the early season prior to getting shut down, I have to assume it was injury driven. If Demko plays to his standard, we do not have an issue in goal.

Again, not suggesting they are going to light the world on fire, but just having these 3 back will be huge, especially when they are already on the books.

 

[Nuckster]

I'm not suggesting the Canucks are a strong team without making any changes, but our biggest issues were awful goaltending, poor defense (both producing and defending), and a historically bad PK.

Getting Mikheyev back will help to addess the PK. He looked really good and was producing up until he got surgery. He was playing with an injured knee up unti that point. He will help, and his $ is already on the books.

Hronek should also help address our the right side of our D as well. He isn't a shutdown D by any means, but moves the puck well and puts up points. Despite being poor defensively, our D core didn't produce much aside from Hughes. Hronek will help in that regard.

Demko came back from injury and played like Demko. He was awful in the early season prior to getting shut down, I have to assume it was injury driven. If Demko plays to his standard, we do not have an issue in goal.

Again, not suggesting they are going to light the world on fire, but just having these 3 back will be huge, especially when they are already on the books.

Agree, and the worst case scenario is we can still ice a team and be cap compliant. These other teams cannot without significant moves, and unlike Vancouver, are all in win now mode and thus HAVE to make moves to improve.

If we stand pat, alot of salary comes off next year, maybe we squeek into the playoffs, maybe not but one year as we're just starting to develop the new core doesn't mean much. It means alot more to teams 'in their window'.

I also think, assuming Demko stays healthy next year, with the new coaches, systems, a healthy Demko gets us into at least a wild card spot.

Did you even check though?
2021-22 Dobson (all situations) = 13-38-51
2022-23 Dobson (all situations) = 13-36-49

2021-22 Bouch (all situations) = 12-31-43
2022-23 Bouch (all situations) = 8-32-40

Dobson signed between those two years, Bouch is signing after his two years. Even if you want to angle that Bouch has two years and doesn't have to prove it, neither regular season reaches the offensive height as Dobson, while Dobson is also better defensively. I even put Bouch at 500K higher to account for some of the powerplay growth and you're still getting worked up about it, while providing zero AAV yourself.

Playoffs clearly have weight, they just aren't driving some crazy premium...he plays on a powerplay unit that spent 3/4 of the season trending to be the highest efficiency of all time without Bouch even on it lmao. We can point to PP points all we want, the answer is - you are fighting with RNH for the 3rd most impactful player on the unit. He adds a new weapon to it with his slapshot, but let's not pretend the PP success lives and dies by Bouch.

OTOH you can also replay all of the defensive failures in the playoffs, like when he fell over skating backwards and gave Eichel a free goal.

Yes Noah Dobson signed AFTER ONE GOOD YEAR

not sure what showing us what he did the year after he signed a bridge does?

My POINT, SINCE ITS CLEARLY NOT UNDERSTOOD

Dobson took a bridge because he HAD ONE GOOD SEASON. That's not a track record

BOUCHARD HAS HAD TWO, INCLUDING 2 GREAT PLAYOFFS and he's almost a PPG in the PLAYOFFS

Bouchard has PROVEN he's worth more because he's repeated it. SMH

wow just wow

 

[Nuckster]

15 out of 17 points this playoff are PP points.

So are PP Points worth less? Does a win if you win on the PP not count?

Alot here don't seem to understand players don't get dinged on contracts for pp points lol

71 of McDavid's 153 points this year were on the powerplay, I guess he shouldn't be paid 13 mil or whatever it is, since pp points dont count