Team w/o Pietrangelo

[Celtic Note]

The best part about being a Blues fan right now is that we just won't get that top heavy. Let's say we give Petro $10M a year. If we did that, our 3 highest paid players next year would be making $8M less than Toronto's 3 highest paid players. Our cap structure is fantastic and we can afford to keep Petro without having to sacrifice much meaningful depth.



On the plus side, we have done an excellent job at building younger, cheaper depth within the organization. We do need to start shedding the more expensive depth, but having guys like Barby, Sanford, Blais, MacMac, Kostin, Kyrou, Mikkola, Perunovich and Thomas all making $1.5M or less next season means that those luxury pieces will get replaced with contributors. And then Sunny at $2.75M is just awesome.

I was just thinking that CHI and PIT sort of survived on that cheap, quality depth model when they got heavier at the top. I think we have to go that why no matter what happens.

 

[execwrite1]

Keeping it simple - without a solution.

How do the Blues build a one-year bridge to the 21-22 season to keep Petro here? They need to find $3 million extra for him.

After next year Allen ($4.35 million), Steen ($5.75 million) and Bozak ($5 million) come off the payroll.

That leaves $15.1 million in new money to give Petro his $3 million extra. Will he agree to a contract with the same salary next year and then bump him up after that?

 

[The Note]

Keeping it simple - without a solution.

How do the Blues build a one-year bridge to the 21-22 season to keep Petro here? They need to find $3 million extra for him.

After next year Allen ($4.35 million), Steen ($5.75 million) and Bozak ($5 million) come off the payroll.

That leaves $15.1 million in new money to give Petro his $3 million extra. Will he agree to a contract with the same salary next year and then bump him up after that?

I would really doubt it. He's a 30 year old UFA at the top of his game aiming for his last payday. All these guys are one hit/shot/ weird fall away from never playing again. He would really want to stay in STL to do that. Some team --even with COVID-nomics-- will offer him a big money, long term deal and I imagine he would jump at that before doing the Blues a solid.

 

[67Blues]

First off, are there any teams who, like the Blues, have a Cup window open for the next 3-4 years that can outright take on that cap hit? I'll disregard those fans who say "we will just dump player x/y/z's salaries and make room (ala Toronto fans), because if it is that easy to do, then the Blues would do the same thing to free up salary with Bozak and Allen. That leaves teams that are up and coming like COL, but taking on that length and AAV of a contract in what could be a flat or slow increasing cap will absolutely screw their long term plans for their good players who will be hitting their big contracts while AP is still hitting the cap hard.

So that leaves the teams that are either in rebuilding mode or retooling mode. Does AP leave the next 2-4 years of his playing career with no chance of winning another Cup while that team hopes the rebuild goes well? I doubt that as he's done the rebuild thing with the Blues already. Does a rebuilding team take on a heavy contract with the knowledge that they will just start to compete when AP is probably 34+ years old and their young studs are coming into their first RFA contracts?

I don't think the choices will be as clear cut as some people make it and I doubt that the top contention teams will be flooding him with high end contracts. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

 

[Stealth JD]

I think it will all get settled, positively, once the playoff-situation is cancelled or completed. Army will probably be able to move each of Steen, Bozak & Allen separately by either settling for or attaching a modest-piece as part of the deal. Teams like Detroit, Ottawa, LA, Anaheim & Buffalo don't want to get their teeth kicked in on a nightly basis by running out kids who aren't prepared for the minutes. I have no doubts Army will ultimately be able to retain the captain; it will just be a matter of how much depth he'll have to shed in order to do so. But he can't move guys with the season still on-going, and he can't re-sign #27 until he trades guys, so...

 

[Celtic Note]

I think it will all get settled, positively, once the playoff-situation is cancelled or completed. Army will probably be able to move each of Steen, Bozak & Allen separately by either settling for or attaching a modest-piece as part of the deal. Teams like Detroit, Ottawa, LA, Anaheim & Buffalo don't want to get their teeth kicked in on a nightly basis by running out kids who aren't prepared for the minutes. I have no doubts Army will ultimately be able to retain the captain; it will just be a matter of how much depth he'll have to shed in order to do so. But he can't move guys with the season still on-going, and he can't re-sign #27 until he trades guys, so...

You lost me at Ottawa. Jokes aside, I think there will still be teams taking on cap. Steen and Bozak bring that vet presence that teams always look to find. Steen may veto however. Allen is actually a good backup with starter experience. That’s bound to be valuable to someone.

 

[67Blues]

You lost me at Ottawa. Jokes aside, I think there will still be teams taking on cap. Steen and Bozak bring that vet presence that teams always look to find. Steen may veto however. Allen is actually a good backup with starter experience. That’s bound to be valuable to someone.

Steen will veto and I doubt the team would even bring that up. Blues can retain 1.3 on Allen and 1.5 on Bozak with minimal damage to the roster and you'll have takers. So you'd take a total cap hit of $9.35m, retain $2.8m giving you +$6.55m to put towards AP, Dunn and fill in any gaps. If need be, you move Gunny and let the rookies fight it out for time.

 

[Blues0307]

Steen will veto and I doubt the team would even bring that up. Blues can retain 1.3 on Allen and 1.5 on Bozak with minimal damage to the roster and you'll have takers. So you'd take a total cap hit of $9.35m, retain $2.8m giving you +$6.55m to put towards AP, Dunn and fill in any gaps. If need be, you move Gunny and let the rookies fight it out for time.

Agree that I think it'll be difficult to move Steen due to his NTC. I'd think teams would have little problem trading for Allen or Bozak though. I don't think we're going to need to sweeten the pot.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

You lost me at Ottawa. Jokes aside, I think there will still be teams taking on cap. Steen and Bozak bring that vet presence that teams always look to find. Steen may veto however. Allen is actually a good backup with starter experience. That’s bound to be valuable to someone.

After this last season, I think Allen is the easiest to move for the reason you listed. If there needs to be an attachment, I doubt it would be a roster player. But a team like Detroit, a team with no short term playoff goal, could be enticed to take Allen for no other reason then to just see what he can bring. They will need two goalies next year to fill in the roster, they have no goalie prospects that are close to the NHL (and they really shouldn't be rushing any prospect a this point either), and they can let him go at the end of the season with no long term damage to the franchise.

The return wouldn't be glamorous, but the return in the actual trade should be irrelevant at this point. It's a move to clear cap, nothing more and nothing less. Trying to add a quality return would be losing sight of what the goal is, or at least, what it should be.

 

[67Blues]

A pick for Allen regardless of what round it is in would be a major win for Army at this point. Considering we have 1 Forward RFA (DLR), 1 Defense RFA (Dunn) and 1 Defense UFA (AP who we are trying to sign thus the exercise), the roster is pretty full. A player coming back would be iffy to fit if they were on a 1 way contract. Brouwer is the only guy who isn't likely to come back.

 

[TurgPavs]

Lets pump the brakes on the demise of the Blues if Petro walks.
Lets not forget that Petro was basically on the market in December of 2018 for his terrible play the first half of the season.

The issue I see with signing Petro to a long term deal is below.
-Before last years playoffs Petro had played in 57 playoff games, 4 Goals, 22 Assists for 26 points, with a +3.
-Last playoffs Petro, 26 games, 3 goals, 16 assists, 19 points with a +5
-Playoffs 2018-19, CP and Jay Bo where 1st and 2nd in Even Strength Ice Time
-Playoffs 2018 -19 Jay Bo was 1st in short handed ice time, with Petro 2nd.
-In his career Petro has played over 222 minutes on the PP in the playoffs, registering a grand total of ZERO goals and 10 assists.
-It was very clear last playoffs that CP and Jay Bo did the dirty work and shut down opponents top scoring lines.
-Playoffs, Among defensemen, over his career Petro is 22nd in the NHL in total PP ice time in the playoffs, 35th in power play points, and 115 defensemen have scored at least 1 power play goal.
-Over the past 12-14 months Petro has played the best hockey of his career at both ends of the ice. However this is after CP and JBo where paired together and took over the tough defensive assignments. Petro has excelled in what could be considered a 2nd pairing roll.
-Petro is at his peak right now, how long are you willing to sign him for and how long are you willing to bet that he plays at this same level?
-If you pay Petro 8+ million AAV on a max deal, what are you going to offer CP when he is a UFA in a couple of years?

Look I would love to keep Petro until the end of his career, but no way can you expect that he is going to put up 50+ points in the regular season and score at a .73 points per game pace like he did last year in the playoffs. The league is littered with over paid players and the odds of Petro playing up to a 8+ million cap hit for the contract term is ridiculous.

Petro didnt win the cup by himself last season, he is a piece, an important piece, but claims that the Blues should re-tool because they lose Petro is ridiculous.

 

[SC2GM]

How many teams have two number 1 d-men? Not many. Were the Blues the only team with a window to win the cup? No matter how great our D was, we weren't going to beat anyone when Allen was still our starting goalie. If people were foolish enough to think we had a window to win then... then they're even more foolish to think we can't win now.

It just comes down to how you spend the money. The Blues have done a better job than most teams, if not all, at not saddling themselves with horrible anchor acting contracts. If Faulk actually plays near what he is being paid, then the Blues will be fine -- with our without Pietrangelo.

It would be nice to see the Blues go an extended stretch without Pietrangelo on the powerplay. Paying someone money based on prime production, during past prime age, is how you end up with Steen, one of your highest paid players, who is now on your fourth line. I agree that Pietrangelo should "age well," but these types of contracts can help shut a window just as much as they can help keep it open.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Steen is such an unrealistic trade that I can’t believe people ever suggest it. Then again we are on like year 3 of this so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised anymore.

 

[TheBluePenguin]

Steen is such an unrealistic trade that I can’t believe people ever suggest it. Then again we are on like year 3 of this so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised anymore.

I agree, the only way Steen is not on this team next year is if they offer free buyouts due the Cap staying flat

 

[ort]

I could see them pulling off something like Steen and a 2nd round pick to Detroit for a warm body. You basically just trade the salary along with an asset to a team that can absorb the cap hit.

That's the only way you move him. Or as part of a bigger deal. But doesn't he have a no-trade anyway?

 

[Celtic Note]

To pull this thing a bit more on track. The thread is about what happens to the team without Pietrangelo. I would prefer to keep him, but what does it look like if we don’t?

we have already had some really good answers, but is there some way we can transition away from him while still being a Cup challenger? I would assume that requires creative gymnastics.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I Pietro walks, there will be some who blame Armstrong for signing Faulk, assigning a cause and effect relationship. But alternately, you can view it that Faulk’s presence gives the team a chance to stay in the upper tier. Parayko would become the match-up pairing and Faulk would suddenly get a much larger offensive and PP role, where he’s been productive in the past. He’s not going to substitute for Pietro in all facets, only 2 or 3 guys in the league could manage that. But it would provide some cover for Parayko and keep the roster fairly balanced.

 

[MissouriMook]

We have 14 F ($51,377,499), 5 D ($18,400,000) and 2 G ($8,750,000) under contract next season with a total cap hit of $78,527,499. That gives us just under $3M to work with. If you trade Allen for futures and replace him on the roster with Husso, you're up to just under $6.6M in cap space and the same roster count by position. Even if you sign Dunn long term for $5M (and I'm not convinced he will ever be worth $5M) you still have over $1.5M in cap space with 14 F, 6 D and 2 G.

Maybe I'm looking for a unicorn, but at this point I consider trading Schwartz ($5.35M) for a Top 4 D to pair with Faulk (leaving Scandella-Parayko as the shutdown pairing) that has a cap hit of $6M or less. Cap-wise, that leaves you with over $800k in space and 13 F, 7 D and 2 G. At that point, you may or may not add the 14th F to the roster to fill it out, and you still have all of ROR, Tarasenko, Schenn, Perron and Thomas in your Top 6 F group. You've got your D pairings set, and you're looking for one of Sanford, Blais or Kyrou to claim the final spot in the Top 6. You also still have two of those players plus Bozak, Steen, Sunny, Barby and Mac Mac to round out your 3rd and 4th lines.

The biggest question is - who can we land with Schwartz as the bait to slot in as the 2LD alongside Faulk -and- who has a cap hit of $6M or less next season? Just spitballing some possibilities outside our division...

- Lindholm from ANA? Sonny Milano and Max Jones are the only two natural LW on the Ducks.
- Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse from EDM? I'm sure Schwartz would fit nicely alongside McDavid or Draisaitl.
- Vlasic from SJS would be an interesting option to revive his flagging career here, but the Sharks would have to retain at least $2M-$3M a year (unlikely) for me to have any interest in the last 3 years of his deal.
- Edler from VAN? He has the experience, but I'm not sure he has the wheels left to be what we would need him to be. I'd want a prospect like Jett Woo and/or some salary relief in the deal.
- Brady Skjei from CAR?
- Ryan Murray from CBJ? I would need a sweetener for him.
- Nick Leddy from NYI? I would need a sweetener for him, too.
- Dmitry Orlov from WSH? Seems unlikely they would be looking to add a Top 6 LW but youneverknow.
- Michael Matheson from FLA?
- Ryan McDonough from TBL? They would have to retain at least $750K and move another F to make room for Schwartz but Tyler Johnson is the only natural LW on their roster signed for next season.

So not a ton of great options there, but you also have to keep in mind that there are a few UFA LD options available like Torey Krug, TJ Brodie and Dmitry Kulikov who could be signed after you've traded Schwartz for a nice futures package. I think that is less likely in the flat cap environment but it certainly can't be ignored.

TL;DR - There are a ton of possibilities to have a decent-to-solid Top 4 without Pietrangelo coming back, but I don't see where it can be argued that our best option to stay a Cup contender is to get 27 back in the fold.

 

[BlueSeal]

Nonsensical. Pay Pie. Adjust around him. You don’t win the Cup and then trade your Captain whose one of the most well rounded Dmen we’ve had since Pronger. Idiocy of the highest level. There are players on the roster who, while good, that we can replace. We can not replace Pie, ROR, etc so get out of that damn mindset.

 

[MissouriMook]

Nonsensical. Pay Pie. Adjust around him. You don’t win the Cup and then trade your Captain whose one of the most well rounded Dmen we’ve had since Pronger. Idiocy of the highest level. There are players on the roster who, while good, that we can replace. We can not replace Pie, ROR, etc so get out of that damn mindset.

Well, this is a thread about what it might look like without Pietrangelo, not whether or not we should let him walk. I don't think you'll find much argument that we shouldn't let him walk, but that is not entirely up to the team, and I'm pretty sure we can have a discussion about what it might look like IF he walks without posters coming in and shitting all over the idea.

 

[BlueSeal]

Well, this is a thread about what it might look like without Pietrangelo, not whether or not we should let him walk. I don't think you'll find much argument that we shouldn't let him walk, but that is not entirely up to the team, and I'm pretty sure we can have a discussion about what it might look like IF he walks without posters coming in and shitting all over the idea.

Under this logic, someone saying the idea of letting Pie walk is lunacy is well within the confines of this thread. A team without a realistic replacement for Pie goes nowhere. And there isn’t one that we can acquire for less than what it’d take to resign him.

 

[MissouriMook]

We have spent a lot of time discussing how to fit Pietrangelo and some time about what to do without him, but I feel like we haven spent much time talking about the team without him given the relatively new information about a flat cap for a few years. So, how would that change things in a scenario where he walks?
...

Under this logic, someone saying the idea of letting Pie walk is lunacy is well within the confines of this thread. A team without a realistic replacement for Pie goes nowhere. And there isn’t one that we can acquire for less than what it’d take to resign him.

No, read the OP again. The discussion is clearly about what things might look like "in a scenario where he walks" not whether or not we should let him walk. Don't derail a thread just because you don't agree with the topic. That's what the "ignore thread" feature is for.

 

[Brockon]

I think this roster goes as far as Mikkola/Perunovich pairing with Faulk with carry this team if Petro walks.

De-facto pairings become
Scandella - Parayko
Xxx - Faulk
Dunn - Bortz
Xxx

Where xxx is some rotation of Gunnarson, Perunovich or Mikkola - whoever seems to mesh well. But, a rookie paired with Faulk seems very unlikely, given Faulk's own struggles, I don't see Berube compounding them by forcing a rookie on the same pairing...

The only way we remain serious contenders is a Makar/Hughes Calder level season from whoever seizes that 2LD slot. Otherwise our regression defensively is going to drop us from that top contender category.

Moving Schwartz doesn't strike me as wise from a roster composition standpoint. We've got a plethora of strong RW and outside of Schwartz, we have Blais and Sanford as Natural LW. Perron plays stronger on the RW, I'd like to keep him there or sell high and slot Kyrou into a top 6 role permanently if we're gambling on young players stepping up.

 

[simon IC]

Brrr. The thought of a Perunovich-Faulk pairing gave me a full-body shudder. Dear Lord, no. Perhaps I need to clarify my stance. I maintain that losing Pietrangelo closes our cup window, but that does not mean we won't be a competitive team. Unfortunately, this is the route I see the Blues taking if Pietrangelo walks. They will ice a competitive team that is good enough to make the playoffs, at least for a few years. They might even win a round or two in that time. The team will be good enough to maintain fan interest and keep people in the seats. (When and if that finally returns!). We will not be true SC contenders, though. Like a lot of us, I have been rewatching our SC run, and doing just reinforces how important the Captain was to our success. Another factor that nobody has mentioned is Jay Bouwmeester. His playoff performance was remarkable. Here is an interesting exercise: Rewatch the SC run, and imagine Faulk and Scandella substituting for Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester.

 

[Evocable Manager]

Armstrong extending anyone before Pietrangelo looks like it will bite the team. I don’t get why you wouldn’t prioritize a top 5 defenseman league wide.

If he extended Dunn, at least that’s a top 20 defenseman who’s 23 and would explode with a better coach than Berube.

Instead, for some reason the team acquired Faulk and gave him a massive contract he will never live up to and is now one of the biggest anchor contracts in the league. Then signed Scandella to a long term extension despite an extraordinarily small sample size of him being worth the price.

I don’t like the Schenn extension at all, but I guess it can be rationalized.

Now the teams in a position where it’s going to cost assets to free up the money needed to bring back its two best unsigned players.

I don’t see Pietrangelo coming back unless a miracle happens. Dunn is criminally underrated and him getting a bigger role is when he would explode, but the team can’t extend him long term because it prioritized older and worse players in Schenn, Faulk and Scandella. Why? I don’t know. So Dunn will be bridged, break out and then cost a lot more than he could’ve.

Losing Pietrangelo? That pretty much closes the teams chance at winning another Stanley Cup, although Armstrong’s recent moves weren’t helping those odds either way.

The team looks like it will need to reset/retool and at this point I’m just extremely frustrated with the way this situation was handled.