Team Board Mock Draft Pick #17

[Holden Caufield]

I remember when skating was a fatal flaw for Jason Robertson as a prospect too. Helps when you are playing on the wing and not down the middle.

Did you watch him for Canada at the U18s? Super poised with the puck on the stick. Always goes to the right spots on the ice. I heard a lot about his deficiencies but when I watched him I was not all that concerned.

Agreed his skill, instinct and compete is off the charts. He was amazing to watch play at U18’s.

Only reason he might be available at 9 is because of his skating. I have no worries he will overcome.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I remember when skating was a fatal flaw for Jason Robertson as a prospect too. Helps when you are playing on the wing and not down the middle.

Did you watch him for Canada at the U18s? Super poised with the puck on the stick. Always goes to the right spots on the ice. I heard a lot about his deficiencies but when I watched him I was not all that concerned.

Not every player with bad skating overcomes that problem no matter how much work is put in. How much of the problem is strength (easiest to fix) or skating mechanics versus body mechanics? (hardest to fix.)

The poise, smarts, puck protection is all there. If his skating was just average I’d be pounding the table for him like I did for Kasper. But it’s bad. Even at his size it’s not something that players always overcome.

There are a lot more Dennis Everbergs and Hugh Jessiman’s drafted than Robertsons and Thompsons.

 

[Detroit Knights]

I remember when skating was a fatal flaw for Jason Robertson as a prospect too. Helps when you are playing on the wing and not down the middle.

Did you watch him for Canada at the U18s? Super poised with the puck on the stick. Always goes to the right spots on the ice. I heard a lot about his deficiencies but when I watched him I was not all that concerned.

Yeah but he is no Gustav Lindstrom, obviously.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

He is every bit as much of a solution as Moore or Danielson or other centers available at 9. We aren't in Bedard/Carlsson/Fantilli territory.

Tell me with absolute certainty that he will be materially better than Moore and Danielson. I am all ears if you are willing to make that proclamation.

Those who think we are pulling a top-line winger from the 9 and 17 holes are setting themselves up to be disappointed.

 

[norrisnick]

Tell me with absolute certainty that he will be materially better than Moore and Danielson. I am all ears if you are willing to make that proclamation.

Those who think we are pulling a top-line winger from the 9 and 17 holes are setting themselves up to be disappointed.

Kasper was 8OA last year and by all accounts had a great season in a really good pro league at 18 years old. Moore and Danielson are slotting in the 10-16 range this year.

In what universe are their projections materially different?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Not every player with bad skating overcomes that problem no matter how much work is put in. How much of the problem is strength (easiest to fix) or skating mechanics versus body mechanics? (hardest to fix.)

The poise, smarts, puck protection is all there. If his skating was just average I’d be pounding the table for him like I did for Kasper. But it’s bad. Even at his size it’s not something that players always overcome.

There are a lot more Dennis Everbergs and Hugh Jessiman’s drafted than Robertsons and Thompsons.

It is why the skating needs to be considered in the context of his anticipation, IQ and size. The below average skaters who make it tend to rate really high in terms of these other traits. No one said the evaluation would be easy.

Kasper was 8OA last year and by all accounts had a great season in a really good pro league at 18 years old. Moore and Danielson are slotting in the 10-16 range this year.

In what universe are their projections materially different?

Are you telling me that Kasper will be the better player? If so just say it.

 

[norrisnick]

Are you telling me that Kasper will be the better player? If so just say it.

Go back and read my post(s) again.

You can pretend there are statements being made in my posts if you want, but if you're making them up, you can defend them as well. I'll just watch, thanks.

 

[Puck5]

Highly unlikely we spend our last top 10 pick on a 2nd pairing defender. Reinbacher at 9 when we already have Seider is not smart, and Steve is a smart guy.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

It is why the skating needs to be considered in the context of his anticipation, IQ and size. The below average skaters who make it tend to rate really high in terms of these other traits. No one said the evaluation would be easy.


Are you telling me that Kasper will be the better player? If so just say it.

A player can rate highly in those areas but still not make it. In the case of Robertson and Thompson, both exponentially improved their skating. But they are both probably no better than league average at this point. These guys, while great offensive players, are limited in their overall games by their skating.

They're the pinnacle of what a prospect with great skill but bad skating can turn into, but the notion that EVERY prospect that fits that profile can become as good as them needs to go away. Like any player type there's variance. There's also a strong possibility that Wood ends up like another Strome brother who were both superstar prospects. Or even an outright bust. If Detroit picks him at #9 I'm going to trust they did their due diligence but would be more cautious about proclaiming him a surefire impact guy like I would Leonard or Danielson.

Also, I know your reply about Kasper was to Norrisnick but here's my take; Kasper is an excellent prospect that would crack the top 10 of this draft. Outside of Leo Carlsson there was not a better U19 player in the SHL this year. And he's about 8 months older than Carlsson. He was my #1 target for Detroit last year because whenever I watched him at any level he played the game in a way that was highly translatable. Great skating, not just a willingness to commit to defense but to THRIVE in that role, very good passing and stickhandling, and any line he played on was elevated and tilted the ice. These are all traits I attribute to winning NHL centers.

In a previous thread I talked about the ranges of possible comparables for Kasper that went from JG Pageau (on the low end) to Sean Coutourier or even ROR on the high end. Hell, maybe even a modern day Brindamour. I don't see Oliver Moore having that high end. I wouldn't be surprised if Danielson turns into a Dylan Cozens clone and I don't pass on him because Kasper is in the system, but I think that Kasper was and is still a better prospect than Danielson is.

 

[ZDH]

Yep, give me Kasper over anyone who will be available at 9. In this draft I would take Kasper 5th. Maybe 4th.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Kasper was 8OA last year and by all accounts had a great season in a really good pro league at 18 years old. Moore and Danielson are slotting in the 10-16 range this year.

In what universe are their projections materially different?

Ok, if Kasper does not project to be materially better than a Moore or a Danielson, I don't know why you would rule out those two as draft options based on a position we still clearly need to figure out. I personally like Kasper better (largely on size, skating and motor) but I can't say that he is so much better that we don't need to consider center a position of relative need.

 

[norrisnick]

Ok, if Kasper does not project to be materially better than a Moore or a Danielson, I don't know why you would rule out those two as draft options based on a position we still clearly need to figure out. I personally like Kasper better (largely on size, skating and motor) but I can't say that he is so much better that we don't need to consider center a position of relative need.

Offensive output is a much bigger organizational need than another safe center.

Moore and Danielson and Kasper project to be 2Cs. Do they have a possibility of being 1Cs? Sure. But there is a greater probability of them being 3Cs than 1Cs.

I'd rather swing for a boom or bust guy like Wood or even Perrault at 9. Take the safe guy at 17.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

A player can rate highly in those areas but still not make it. In the case of Robertson and Thompson, both exponentially improved their skating. But they are both probably no better than league average at this point. These guys, while great offensive players, are limited in their overall games by their skating.

They're the pinnacle of what a prospect with great skill but bad skating can turn into, but the notion that EVERY prospect that fits that profile can become as good as them needs to go away. Like any player type there's variance. There's also a strong possibility that Wood ends up like another Strome brother who were both superstar prospects. Or even an outright bust. If Detroit picks him at #9 I'm going to trust they did their due diligence but would be more cautious about proclaiming him a surefire impact guy like I would Leonard or Danielson.

Also, I know your reply about Kasper was to Norrisnick but here's my take; Kasper is an excellent prospect that would crack the top 10 of this draft. Outside of Leo Carlsson there was not a better U19 player in the SHL this year. And he's about 8 months older than Carlsson. He was my #1 target for Detroit last year because whenever I watched him at any level he played the game in a way that was highly translatable. Great skating, not just a willingness to commit to defense but to THRIVE in that role, very good passing and stickhandling, and any line he played on was elevated and tilted the ice. These are all traits I attribute to winning NHL centers.

In a previous thread I talked about the ranges of possible comparables for Kasper that went from JG Pageau (on the low end) to Sean Coutourier or even ROR on the high end. Hell, maybe even a modern day Brindamour. I don't see Oliver Moore having that high end. I wouldn't be surprised if Danielson turns into a Dylan Cozens clone and I don't pass on him because Kasper is in the system, but I think that Kasper was and is still a better prospect than Danielson is.

I did not mean to suggest that those other traits were sufficient to produce an effective NHL player. I do, however, consider them almost necessary in that particular context. I think the skating makes him inherently more risky as a prospect but at a certain point the opportunity cost for the potential return starts to look pretty low. I don't have the nuts to take him at 9 but Wood should be in the discussion at 17 especially if we take someone relatively safer at 9. Hell, I would even give Edstrom some thought at 17.

I share your general sentiment on Kasper, but I am not convinced we can declare mission accomplished with respect to the center position. You simply can't have too many centers. I won't be surprised if Moore is ultimately moved to the wing in the pro game. The issue with Danielson is that you need to take him at 9 if you want him. He isn't going to last until 17 if only because of the position he plays.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Offensive output is a much bigger organizational need than another safe center.

Moore and Danielson and Kasper project to be 2Cs. Do they have a possibility of being 1Cs? Sure. But there is a greater probability of them being 3Cs than 1Cs.

I'd rather swing for a boom or bust guy like Wood or even Perrault at 9. Take the safe guy at 17.

I think there are probably more productive individual players in this class if that is solely what you are after, but I think the position of center goes much further increasing total team offensive output. The rink has three zones and always will.

So what are you realistically expecting to get out of Wood and Perrault exactly? If I told you their most realistic projection is as 2nd or 3rd line wingers would you be disappointed with that return?

 

[norrisnick]

I think there are probably more productive individual players in this class if that is solely what you are after, but I think the position of center goes much further increasing total team offensive output. The rink has three zones and always will.

So what are you realistically expecting to get out of Wood and Perrault exactly? If I told you their most realistic projection is as 2nd or 3rd line wingers would you be disappointed with that return?

That may be with regards to potentially higher scoring options than those two. But it's weighing the balance of offensive potential vs the complete bust odds.

I think the blue line we are assembling will take a bit of the transition pressure off of the center position. For the back half of the rink anyway. Offense can be created from the wing with sound two-way support in the middle and from the blue line.

2018 didn't really work out, but that is 100% the approach I want to take. Offense high, safe later. If we get a bunch of bottom sixers, oh well. At least you shot your shot rather than aiming for a middle six guy from the get go.

 

[Frk It]

I don't have the nuts to take him at 9 but Wood should be in the discussion at 17 especially if we take someone relatively safer at 9.

Who do you have over him?

Those who think we are pulling a top-line winger from the 9 and 17 holes are setting themselves up to be disappointed.

There is *what’s likely* and then there is *what needs to happen for this re-build to succeed*

We are going to have to get players that exceed what their draft slot normally yields for this thing to happen.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

If this is our future top 6:

XXX-Larkin-Raymond
XXX-Kasper-Berggren

Then we need to add some forwards with size/skill. Honzek, Barlow, Wood, Ritchie all make sense to me and I think our scouting group might be wanting to go that direction.

Really Matthew Wood at #9 makes more sense to me by the day. 6'4" right shot winger that led his college team in points, was 2 PPG in the BCHL last year, and scored a goal a game for Canada at the U18s. Put that kid anywhere and he contributes and produces.

He reminds me of Tage Thompson or Jason Robertson as far as yeah he is not a pretty mover, but he knows where to go and what to do when he gets a puck on his stick.

Does the fact we already don't have a ton of elite speed worry anyone?

I am all for the aggressive cut. I understand the projections on this and more than most like to project upticks in skating around here. For instance on Barlow his skating worries me a little, it was a hallmark in his OHL draft year in terms of early scouting reports that didn't translate as well as hoped in the OHL. Now I will say I think his first steps are good and his stride looks okay to me so you should be able to coach more into it. He has elite goal scoring and board play so he adds something to our group that we lack. Still one of the things I think we need more of is pace.

In that sense both Moore and Danielson intrigue me a great deal in this draft at one of the selections and it probably has to be 9 to make sure we get one.

 

[Frk It]

Does the fact we already don't have a ton of elite speed worry anyone?

I am all for the aggressive cut. I understand the projections on this and more than most like to project upticks in skating around here. For instance on Barlow his skating worries me a little, it was a hallmark in his OHL draft year in terms of early scouting reports that didn't translate as well as hoped in the OHL. Now I will say I think his first steps are good and his stride looks okay to me so you should be able to coach more into it. He has elite goal scoring and board play so he adds something to our group that we lack. Still one of the things I think we need more of is pace.

In that sense both Moore and Danielson intrigue me a great deal in this draft at one of the selections and it probably has to be 9 to make sure we get one.

It’s a fair concern.

However, I don’t know that in the 5-15 range of this draft you are looking at a lot of high end skaters.

It is kind of Moore and that’s it. I think Danielson is a good skater but I don’t think he is a high end skater. I think this draft has some really good players but not necessarily a lot of really good skaters.

I think Kasper is or will be that and Larkin will continue to be that. So maybe we don’t need it on the wing as badly?

Barlow finished 2nd in the 30m forward skate at the top prospect game testing, it that makes you feel any better lol

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Who do you have over him?


There is *what’s likely* and then there is *what needs to happen for this re-build to succeed*

We are going to have to get players that exceed what their draft slot normally yields for this thing to happen.

At 9? Leonard, Reinbacher, Dvorsky, Danielson and Barlow. After those four he is in the conversation.

 

[Holden Caufield]

I’m not concerned at all with Barlows skating.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

It’s a fair concern.

However, I don’t know that in the 5-15 range of this draft you are looking at a lot of high end skaters.

It is kind of Moore and that’s it. I think Danielson is a good skater but I don’t think he is a high end skater. I think this draft has some really good players but not necessarily a lot of really good skaters.

I think Kasper is or will be that and Larkin will continue to be that. So maybe we don’t need it on the wing as badly?

Barlow finished 2nd in the 30m forward skate at the top prospect game testing, it that makes you feel any better lol

I am pretty good with Barlow at #17. I just would like another high end skater, Moore is elite. I think Danielson has high end attributes there. Honestly on Danielson I think the only reason he might be available later is mostly on his teammates in a lot of the tape. He is a pretty sneaky playmaker if you put a little more talent around him in my opinion. I know his numbers were good, but in some of the clips I have seen man he puts teammates in good spots where they bobbled the puck or didn't take the green light opportunity. He doesn't shoot a lot, but that actually is an issue with some junior players, his shot selection is great when he does shoot.

Having Larkin/Kasper/Moore or Danielson down the middle makes a ton of sense to me. It gives you two bullets on that #2 C. It also allows you to kick Copp and Ras outside with the benefit of them being able to kick in for draws or defensive assignments. They also provide two big body board players and retrievers to the lines that everyone is searching for here. That has balance to the lineup while putting more speed up the middle to drive teams backwards with puck carriers through center.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I don't know how you can say that Danielson is a materially better skater than Barlow. I agree that Barlow is not an elite or high-end skater in the vein of Moore, but the difference between Danielson and Barlow is isn't significant in my eyes. Both obviously need to make developmentally appropriate improvements to their skating.

 

[Chad Smiley]

I want Zach Benson at 9 and I hope he's there.

 

[jkutswings]

At 9? Leonard, Reinbacher, Dvorsky, Danielson and Barlow. After those four he is in the conversation.

That's a list of five.

 

[lilidk]

I want Zach Benson at 9 and I hope he's there.

It's been very boring team since Datsyuk quits playing for Red Wings.