Tank Fails

[Nucker101]

Bad news everyone, Demko is back practicing. If he gives Canucks goaltending above .900, then they're going to win a lot more games. Martin/Delia have given Canucks generationally bad goaltending.

According to the data Kevin Woodley cited, Delia has been above average with a .887 so unless team defense improves big time, Demko will have to stand on his head just to give us .900 goaltending

This team has like 1 consistently good two-way player in EP and it shows

 

[CpatainCanuck]

In 6th place in the sweepstakes with 46 points the Canucks are 5 points behind the 8th place teams, who both have games in hand. As long as the Canucks don't go on a run a bottom-7 finish should be easily achievable.

Realistically the Canucks are going to have a hard time getting into the top-4: the bottom feeders are just so bad.

 

[Canucker]

In 6th place in the sweepstakes with 46 points the Canucks are 5 points behind the 8th place teams, who both have games in hand. As long as the Canucks don't go on a run a bottom-7 finish should be easily achievable.

Realistically the Canucks are going to have a hard time getting into the top-4: the bottom feeders are just so bad.

Yeah, I'd consider this a "successful" tank if we could let one more team get past us...because I don't realistically think we'll drop beyond that...we're a bit "lucky" to be where we are right now.

 

[bandwagonesque]

The Canucks will probably finish no lower than 4th, but the odds don't take a significant jump until 3rd anyway. I won't be too upset if they finish in their present position.

 

[dez]

Looking at the odds on tankathon and it looks like 6th has the highest chance of dropping. That's pretty Canucks.

 

[Orr4Norris]

Looking at the odds on tankathon and it looks like 6th has the highest chance of dropping. That's pretty Canucks.

Yes. To everyone who says ‘Canuck luck’…they put themselves into these positions.

 

[AppleHoneySauce]

Yes. To everyone who says ‘Canuck luck’…they put themselves into these positions.

Math is evil and doesn't fit with narratives.

 

[me2]

Looking at the odds on tankathon and it looks like 6th has the highest chance of dropping. That's pretty Canucks.

1st has a 75% chance of dropping at least 1 spot. 54.3% of dropping 2 spots.

6th has a 41.4% of dropping 1 spot, 9.1% chance of dropping 2.

 

[Hodgy]

The Canucks will probably finish no lower than 4th, but the odds don't take a significant jump until 3rd anyway. I won't be too upset if they finish in their present position.

But it’s not just about Bedard. Getting fourth would likely mean a choice between Michkov and Smith.

 

[Coffee]

@Lindgren

Do the Canucks have a legitimate chance at finishing dead last? Or are they too good.

 

[Hammman]

@Lindgren

Do the Canucks have a legitimate chance at finishing dead last? Or are they too good.

Almost no chance. The Canucks are bad, but Columbus and Chicago are much worse.

EDIT: Not to mention Anaheim with their -88 goal differential

 

[me2]

@Lindgren

Do the Canucks have a legitimate chance at finishing dead last? Or are they too good.

Chicago has 9 fewer points, and Columbus 10 fewer. Between us and them and some genuinely bad teams like Anaheim and Arizona. SJ is just below us and Montreal just above. To get dead last we need to out tank ALL of those teams, and massively out tank Chicago and Columbus. If Columbus goes 10-15-4, we'd need to go 5-21-3. If Chicago then went 9-21-3, we still not get first.

Legitimate chance? No. Less than 1%, a lot less.

 

[Lindgren]

@Lindgren

Do the Canucks have a legitimate chance at finishing dead last? Or are they too good.

As others have said, they do not have a legitimate chance at last. It's the same math/logic as in previous years when their chances of making the playoffs were discussed, only in reverse. One of the bottom teams could go on a surprise heater, and the Canucks could pass them on the way down. But there are so many teams below them. There's no chance they'll pass them all.

But if management acts smartly, and Tochett doesn't sabotage things (by overplaying Pettersson, Hughes, or a suddenly good Demko, etc.) then there's a legitimate shot at finishing fifth or even fourth from the bottom. If that happens, and the Islanders manage to come in twelfth or thirteenth, and the pre-deadline trades bring in more significant futures, and the amateur scouting staff doesn't screw up, this could be a franchise-altering moment.

I realize it's a lot of ifs. I'm not particularly optimistic.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Today was a f***ing great tank day.

And the Oilers got shit canned.

 

[valkynax]

As others have said, they do not have a legitimate chance at last. It's the same math/logic as in previous years when their chances of making the playoffs were discussed, only in reverse. One of the bottom teams could go on a surprise heater, and the Canucks could pass them on the way down. But there are so many teams below them. There's no chance they'll pass them all.

But if management acts smartly, and Tochett doesn't sabotage things (by overplaying Pettersson, Hughes, or a suddenly good Demko, etc.) then there's a legitimate shot at finishing fifth or even fourth from the bottom. If that happens, and the Islanders manage to come in twelfth or thirteenth, and the pre-deadline trades bring in more significant futures, and the amateur scouting staff doesn't screw up, this could be a franchise-altering moment.

I realize it's a lot of ifs. I'm not particularly optimistic.

Yeah...I simply cannot visualize anything positive happening to this team at this time.

If we get Bedard, I'll gladly eat my keyboard with some fava beans and a nice Chianti.

 

[oceanchild]

@Lindgren

Do the Canucks have a legitimate chance at finishing dead last? Or are they too good.

I believe

 

[M2Beezy]

I randomly predict Columbus goes on a run, Coyotes bottom out:

32 Chicago
31 Anahiem
30 Arizona
29 Columbus
28 Montreal
27 San Jose
26 Vancouver

 

[Vector]

@Lindgren

Do the Canucks have a legitimate chance at finishing dead last? Or are they too good.

A big factor is strength of schedule. Canucks have an easier schedule than most of the team’s below them. Another is that a bunch of these teams are expected to get significantly worse. Canucks, meanwhile, might actually get better purely through getting rid of the roster cruft.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

My totally baseless, uninformed prediction: Canucks finish 4th last and move up to 2nd overall (finally get some draft lottery luck) and draft Fantilli. I’ve got plenty of copium to go around.

 

[lawrence]

Today was a f***ing great tank day.

And the Oilers got shit canned.

Sharks beat caps…. Wow… another team hanging on to playoff life. Hope they feel the pressure and give Alvin a call.

 

[CanuckleBerry]

Sharks beat caps…. Wow… another team hanging on to playoff life. Hope they feel the pressure and give Alvin a call.

Erik Karlsson has gone Super Saiyan. He could single handedly drag that team above us in the standings. That said, if a contender does some Cap gymnastics and actually trades for him (and Meier), the Sharks will bottom out and could very well finish dead last.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

No contender can take on 11.5million for the next 5 years. Don't have to worry about that.

Panthers.

Bob coming Back.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

Well their goes the tank. Tank commander is on waivers rip. Well I guess we still have Myers and Stillman. But damn.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

Well their goes the tank. Tank commander is on waivers rip. Well I guess we still have Myers and Stillman. But damn.

Tough one. Well he got us this far. Let's see how things unfold.

 

[canuckking1]

Demko is returning, and our schedule is relatively easy in March/April. I think we are about to get a punch in the mouth followed by a gut shot.