Player Discussion Tage Thompson 2

[joshjull]

Devil's advocate for a moment: So what happens if this is his career year? What if this is the best giraffe we're going to see?

Thats why I’d like to see what he does next season before committing.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Isn't 23-24 the highest productivity for most forwards?

 

[Zach716]

Inking players long term early is how MacKinnon plays for $6m a year. I'm willing to take the bet with Tage. Sammy too if he's willing.

Isn't 23-24 the highest productivity for most forwards?

6'7 guy was always going to need time to grow into his body and learn how to be successful at that size in the NHL. Normally yes that's correct, but Tage is clearly an outlier here finally putting it all together.

 

[elchud]

If we do sign Tage to big deal and he doesn't live up to it the albatross hanging from that neck is gonna hurt bad

 

[itwasaforwardpass]

Inking players long term early is how MacKinnon plays for $6m a year. I'm willing to take the bet with Tage. Sammy too if he's willing.


6'7 guy was always going to need time to grow into his body and learn how to be successful at that size in the NHL. Normally yes that's correct, but Tage is clearly an outlier here finally putting it all together.

Nathan Mackinnon was coming off two 20 goal seasons at age 20 before getting that contract. Tage Thompson had a career high of 8 goals before this season. There's four years of data and tape of him being a poor player before unexpectedly exploding this season. The circumstances aren't comparable at all.

I'm not saying he's going to turn into a pumpkin. I don't expect that to happen at all. But I'd like to see one more season of play to judge where he's at before inking him to a massive long term contract.

 

[Buffaloed]

If we do sign Tage to big deal and he doesn't live up to it the albatross hanging from that neck is gonna hurt bad

That makes him just like any other player you sign to a big deal. It works the other way too if you sign him to a bridge deal. I'm committed to the giraffe.

 

[HaNotsri]

He makes the Pegula yacht look small so they'll probably trade him. Doesn't fit their lifestyle.

 

[haseoke39]

Well, the floor is $5m per, right? The ceiling is maybe $7.5m? That's the range we're talking about on a deal for more than three years?

 

[KeyserSoze81]

He makes the Pegula yacht look small so they'll probably trade him. Doesn't fit their lifestyle.

Think of his caloric intake - athletes of that size eat too much at team events. I wonder if we could trade him for Debrincat? Downsize the team, downsize our overhead.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

1) Tage Thompson 2- The Giraffening. Still a better movie idea than half of what’s out there these days.
2) Such a difficult contract. He outperformed expected goals and such and it’s only one season.
3) That said, what a skillset, and personally I don’t see why he couldn’t keep getting better if he wants to. He finished the season stronger than he started it, he helps make Skinner relevant again. Idk, 6x5 feels low, but I’m not sure what else works, risk-wise. I think if he starts the season strong in any way you throw that at him. I’m fine with making the offer now, but understand why the team might not.

 

[elchud]

Thompson has always had a high ceiling and after last year he has a high floor as well.

If he asks for 6 years x 7 million right now, do you pay it?

If he scores 35+ goals this season, he is easily an 8 million dollar player.

 

[Fjordy]

Tage needs to repeat his season to get a good raise. I think he will do it and get an appetizing contract from Adams.

 

[buffalowing88]

There is no plan with Quinn/Krebs locked in as 2/3rds of our top line. Thats why I asked you where you got that idea from because its not a thing. Yet you keep using it as the basis for how we should handle Tage.

You also had a rigid pecking order to the centers in your initial post of Krebs, Tage, Mitts and then Cozens. That isn’t a thing either. Tage is the clearly the best center at the moment but the overall group is still developing and a work in progress. How it all plays it is hard to say at this point. Any of Mitts, Cozens or Krebs could end up a top 6 center with Tage. Krebs is hardly a lock to be that guy.

Signing Tage will be about how they view Tage going forward and not about other players. They are always going to be other contracts down the road. Teams sign their talent and worry about the cap when they're forced to do so. Which for this team will be a few years down the road. Maybe teams should worry sooner but they don’t. They also have various means to navigate that situation as well.

So I think I'm in the minority with this but I do believe it's beneficial to have a rigid pecking order. I get what you're saying, but I've also been burned too many times with the post-Briere/Drury squad to think that it's healthy to let guys float in and out of positions. There's something to be said for order and it's not like I'm a stickler in other ways, but it would be nice to see how it works. We've tried fluidity other than Eichel and O'Reilly and it's been a bust.

But you're certainly right about contracts down the road and Thompson's negotiations not impacting that. I feel like I'm still just cautious but again, you're right, good teams sign their talent and worry about the repercussions later. I'm apparently a hockey-cap Republican. Just comes from years of shitty contracts and little knowledge of how a good team would even do cap gymnastics. The Bills do it all the time now so it's not like I shouldn't know better.

As always, appreciate your input. I know you follow these things closer than I do. I just have this weird desire for structure on the team for once. It's been so long that we've been out in the wilderness.

Devil's advocate for a moment: So what happens if this is his career year? What if this is the best giraffe we're going to see?

My mind wanders to if he's a Derek Plante situation but his tools are obviously quite a bit better.


But yet the mind wanders....

 

[buffalowing88]

Isn't 23-24 the highest productivity for most forwards?

Love it, love the anti-Tage becoming the next Gretzky side of it. The only counterpoint I'll make is that it does seem those who like him are making concessions. Tage will not have that many goals again. I just don't think that's even possible. He reminds me of a much more capable Stafford who, in his rookie year, was on such a heater that ESPN said he would score 80 points the following season.

Things don't work out that way. If I was the opponent, I would force Tage to show he can pass. I do not believe he is a top-6 forward in that regard. I also believe his line had an incredibly fun run but that will be an actual focus of good teams if we remain competitive.

Hence why I think the offense is going to belong to Krebs and Quinn next year and if it doesn't I will eat even more crow than usual.

 

[KiwiGriff]

I'm not judging whether it should be, just saying what could determine how soon we see Thompson in Buffalo. I hope that he can make @Der Jaeger , me and others forget about wanting Alex Tuch as a RW for Eichel.

I’m impressed. You were picking Tuch for Eichel well before it happened

 

[joshjull]

So I think I'm in the minority with this but I do believe it's beneficial to have a rigid pecking order. I get what you're saying, but I've also been burned too many times with the post-Briere/Drury squad to think that it's healthy to let guys float in and out of positions. There's something to be said for order and it's not like I'm a stickler in other ways, but it would be nice to see how it works. We've tried fluidity other than Eichel and O'Reilly and it's been a bust.

But you're certainly right about contracts down the road and Thompson's negotiations not impacting that. I feel like I'm still just cautious but again, you're right, good teams sign their talent and worry about the repercussions later. I'm apparently a hockey-cap Republican. Just comes from years of shitty contracts and little knowledge of how a good team would even do cap gymnastics. The Bills do it all the time now so it's not like I shouldn't know better.

As always, appreciate your input. I know you follow these things closer than I do. I just have this weird desire for structure on the team for once. It's been so long that we've been out in the wilderness.



My mind wanders to if he's a Derek Plante situation but his tools are obviously quite a bit better.


But yet the mind wanders....

I don’t think you're in the minority about having a pecking order. I just think its too early with this center group to have it set in stone.

Tage had a fanastic season as the #1 but he didn’t really have much competition with Mitts out injured/playing injured, Cozens in his first full NHL season and Krebs into the equation late. How these guys play next season will start to harden the center pecking order.

Love it, love the anti-Tage becoming the next Gretzky side of it. The only counterpoint I'll make is that it does seem those who like him are making concessions. Tage will not have that many goals again. I just don't think that's even possible. He reminds me of a much more capable Stafford who, in his rookie year, was on such a heater that ESPN said he would score 80 points the following season.

Things don't work out that way. If I was the opponent, I would force Tage to show he can pass. I do not believe he is a top-6 forward in that regard. I also believe his line had an incredibly fun run but that will be an actual focus of good teams if we remain competitive.

Hence why I think the offense is going to belong to Krebs and Quinn next year and if it doesn't I will eat even more crow than usual.

I‘m not sure what to expect goal scoring-wise from Tage next season. Its why I want to wait to see what he does next year before committing to him.

But the Stafford rookie year comparison doesn’t really work. Tage was our #1 center this past season facing top defenders. Stafford came up in the back half of the 06-07 season and played on our secondary scoring line with Vanek/Roy. Briere’s line was doing the heavy lifting that year. The next year and beyond Stafford no longer had that shield.

Whereas Tage has already spent a year getting the top defenders. Next year he is likely to get help as other young talented forwards start hitting their stride and potentially a healthy Mitts make a bigger contribution.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I bet Adams could get Tage to sign a very favorable deal, what with the collapse of the CryptoBro economy

 

[Matt Ress]

So I think I'm in the minority with this but I do believe it's beneficial to have a rigid pecking order. I get what you're saying, but I've also been burned too many times with the post-Briere/Drury squad to think that it's healthy to let guys float in and out of positions. There's something to be said for order and it's not like I'm a stickler in other ways, but it would be nice to see how it works. We've tried fluidity other than Eichel and O'Reilly and it's been a bust.

But you're certainly right about contracts down the road and Thompson's negotiations not impacting that. I feel like I'm still just cautious but again, you're right, good teams sign their talent and worry about the repercussions later. I'm apparently a hockey-cap Republican. Just comes from years of shitty contracts and little knowledge of how a good team would even do cap gymnastics. The Bills do it all the time now so it's not like I shouldn't know better.

As always, appreciate your input. I know you follow these things closer than I do. I just have this weird desire for structure on the team for once. It's been so long that we've been out in the wilderness.



My mind wanders to if he's a Derek Plante situation but his tools are obviously quite a bit better.


But yet the mind wanders....

Yeah man I get why they're moving guys around a lot and we'll probably see some more of that but I'm thinking we'll have more defined roles by mid season even with a still very young roster that will probably get younger this upcoming year. I have faith in Donny's step by step process.

I love that Tage broke out this past year. It's refreshing compared to the Staffordesque contract year inflation when we all knew he would average back out when he got paid. I think Tage has a genuine desire to be a super star and whether he ends up that way or not, he's pushing not just for the green. His ability to get his shot off from weird angles and body position, while putting heat and accuracy on the puck is pretty rare and being such a large human being allows him to get to tight areas to get that shot off. Chalk me up for optimistic because a full year () of consistent linemates and overall improved team chemistry and confidence should be big helpers moving forward. We may not end up with super stars but we should get production from all 4 lines and from the back end.

 

[sabremike]

Why is the first inclination of so many people that if anything goes right for us in terms of a player greatly improving to get rid of them if they won't get lowballed on a contract? Do you want to build a team or just constantly keep getting rid of guys like a toddler with ADD?

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Love it, love the anti-Tage becoming the next Gretzky side of it. The only counterpoint I'll make is that it does seem those who like him are making concessions. Tage will not have that many goals again. I just don't think that's even possible. He reminds me of a much more capable Stafford who, in his rookie year, was on such a heater that ESPN said he would score 80 points the following season.

Things don't work out that way. If I was the opponent, I would force Tage to show he can pass. I do not believe he is a top-6 forward in that regard. I also believe his line had an incredibly fun run but that will be an actual focus of good teams if we remain competitive.

Hence why I think the offense is going to belong to Krebs and Quinn next year and if it doesn't I will eat even more crow than usual.

I think your game plan against TT would be solid. But I'm willing to bet he outscores and outpoints Krebs and Quinn (although not combined). Unless Quinn plays PP1 and TT is bounced from all PP time I don't think Quinn outscores him.

Krebs only had 15 EV points in 48 games, while shooting hotter than Thompson. For him to get 50 points next season would be a tremendous improvement.

 

[Chainshot]

If someone is trying to make him pass by taking away shooting lanes, he has already exhibited the ability to change angles and draw the puck to different release points, especially close to his feet, to create different options. With his wingspan, it's easier said than done though not necessarily impossible.

 

[joshjull]

If someone is trying to make him pass by taking away shooting lanes, he has already exhibited the ability to change angles and draw the puck to different release points, especially close to his feet, to create different options. With his wingspan, it's easier said than done though not necessarily impossible.

I’m just chuckling at the above comments on how to stop him. As if teams weren’t already trying to do this by matching up their top defenders against him. Its why he scored more at home than the road. Granato was able to get him away from those matchups more often at home.

Did they think teams were just watching him in awe and waiting for the offseason to figure it out?

 

[joshjull]

Why is the first inclination of so many people that if anything goes right for us in terms of a player greatly improving to get rid of them if they won't get lowballed on a contract? Do you want to build a team or just constantly keep getting rid of guys like a toddler with ADD?

Its very weird

 

[Jim Bob]

With Thompson under contract for 2022-23, I don't see the rush to do anything with him contract-wise unless the Sabres were able to get him locked up to a team friendly deal given the lack of extended production.

Something like 5x5 would make sense to me. If Thompson wants more than that, then wait and see what happens in 22-23.

 

[Dingo44]

jUSt FoRCe taGE to pASS