Player Discussion Stuart Skinner

guymez

The Seldom Seen Kid
Mar 3, 2004
34,583
15,163
Couldn’t watch the game today. Will watch later. Although 1 game or HALF game samples are mostly irrelevant when trying to read a goalies quality. I’m sure detractors freaked out over the goals against but I havent seen them yet. Looks like he held the fort and kept it to 3. An average performance but I’m sure people will act like he absolutely shit the bed without realizing that perfect goalies on an 82 game basis don’t exist. In any case, let’s agree to disagree, if/when Skinner fails for an extended period of time there will be time for your victory lap.
The same posters are laying in the weeds staying quiet when Skinner is doing well and then as soon as there is an opening (usually unjustified) they come out with a definitive conclusion about him as a player.
Refreshing to read a more balanced perspective.
 
Last edited:

yukoner88

Registered User
Dec 16, 2009
20,696
25,655
Dawson City, YT
If you take out all games coached by Woodcroft he’s still a sub .900 goalie outside of the win streak.

He’s not consistent enough.

Dude, how can you ignore a 12 game win streak of his own (breaking Fuhr's record)?

He went with a save percentage north of .930 for those 12 games.

Every goalie has ups and downs in a season, and Skinners heater lasted for 12 games, and the game the Oilers lost to Vegas, he posted .920

Skinner has saved way more games for the Oilers than he has costed them.
 

Spawn

Something in the water
Feb 20, 2006
44,454
17,032
Edmonton
Dude, how can you ignore a 12 game win streak of his own (breaking Fuhr's record)?

He went with a save percentage north of .930 for those 12 games.

Every goalie has ups and downs in a season, and Skinners heater lasted for 12 games, and the game the Oilers lost to Vegas, he posted .920

Skinner has saved way more games for the Oilers than he has costed them.

I'm not ignoring the streak. I'm saying that he's inconsistent and outside of that streak he's been terrible. Great he had a sensational 12 games where the team was barely giving up a chance a game. The rest of the season he's been bad. Including his last handful of starts.
 

Keggatron

Registered User
Nov 15, 2008
1,011
715
Dude, how can you ignore a 12 game win streak of his own (breaking Fuhr's record)?

He went with a save percentage north of .930 for those 12 games.

Every goalie has ups and downs in a season, and Skinners heater lasted for 12 games, and the game the Oilers lost to Vegas, he posted .920

Skinner has saved way more games for the Oilers than he has costed them.
This is completely untrue. Outside of maybe the last few games during the streak I don't really think he's outright won us any other games this season. And he's damn sure cost us quite a few. I'm not ready to completely write him off, I was earlier this year, but as I said earlier in the season, he tends to shit his clothes when things are on the line. And he isn't really proving me wrong. I will say he did look good in the latter stages of that streak though and I'm willing to give him a bit of rope. Coaching decision to keep running him into the ground is frustrating however. Pickard has really earned a chance to run with it for a few games, especially now after Skinner has looked bad the last few outings and Pickard has looked good.

On another note, coaching looked great when things were good. Now that we're struggling I'm starting to see a lot of the exact same mistakes his predecessors made. He just seems so stubborn in his lineup decisions. Brown better stay out of the god damned lineup now, but I'm assuming as soon as we lose a game he'll be back in. We may not even have to lose. Going with Skinner through the very thin even though Pickard has earned more looks. Drai and McD together. List goes on.
 
  • Haha
  • Like
Reactions: TB12 and Drivesaitl

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
44,180
55,111
The same posters are laying in the weeds staying quiet when Skinner is doing well and then as soon as there is an opening (usually unjustified) they come out with a definitive conclusion about him as a player.
Refreshing to read a more balanced perspective.

Agreed. And I’m not like saying don’t critique the player, every player is open game. But they don’t even wait for a legit bad goal to start shitting on him, in their effort to feel right about him it’s ANY goal against that they come out of the weeds. Not to mention the month long stretch where Skinner was legit elite putting up elite numbers, the mental gymnastics used to excuse that just seem so disingenuous to me.
 

KCC

Registered User
Aug 15, 2007
19,051
10,344
Dude, how can you ignore a 12 game win streak of his own (breaking Fuhr's record)?

He went with a save percentage north of .930 for those 12 games.

Every goalie has ups and downs in a season, and Skinners heater lasted for 12 games, and the game the Oilers lost to Vegas, he posted .920

Skinner has saved way more games for the Oilers than he has costed them.
Nah. Dude is trash especially when it's high pressure games. I don't trust this dude at all come playoff time. There's making saves and then making saves and spitting out rebounds every 2 seconds. He makes it so much more difficult for his teammates because easy saves turn into chaos as he shoots it back out in front of the slot. He's a rebound machine, has cost the team many games because of it and come playoff time he will do it again. I guarantee it. Just wait.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
44,180
55,111
I mean talk of goaltending is hilarious.
Has nobody been watching other teams since after the ASB?

5-10 goals against games league wide seems to be a theme. And people want to act like Skinner letting in 2-3 goals and giving up rebounds is some unique lack of goaltending that only afflicts the Oilers. Zero perspective given.

Nah. Dude is trash especially when it's high pressure games. I don't trust this dude at all come playoff time. There's making saves and then making saves and spitting out rebounds every 2 seconds. He makes it so much more difficult for his teammates because easy saves turn into chaos as he shoots it back out in front of the slot. He's a rebound machine, has cost the team many games because of it and come playoff time he will do it again. I guarantee it. Just wait.

Rebound machine that ranks 7th best for goalies over 20GP for rebound prevention. How bout watch some highlights and count how many rebounds are happening to other goalies too to give yourself perspective.

I'm not ignoring the streak. I'm saying that he's inconsistent and outside of that streak he's been terrible. Great he had a sensational 12 games where the team was barely giving up a chance a game. The rest of the season he's been bad. Including his last handful of starts.

Your argument sounds like it boils down to outside of his good games he’s been bad.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Arty Spooners Bsmnt

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
44,180
55,111
No, my argument is he’s been more bad than good and we don’t have a plan B should he completely flatline like he did in last years playoff.
That's what you are saying, but you are only backing that up by ignoring his good games. And also ignoring Post-Knob systems change, which ignores the fact that Goalie performance will always be connected to the system he plays behind. Something Woodley preaches. And something evidenced also by Helly before and after Bowness arrived (.910->.920->.925)
 

SaltNPeca

Registered User
Jan 9, 2017
2,076
1,894
Köln
The same posters are laying in the weeds staying quiet when Skinner is doing well and then as soon as there is an opening (usually unjustified) they come out with a definitive conclusion about him as a player.
Refreshing to read a more balanced perspective.
Lot of Negative Nancy Oiler fans ITT. Lot of guys waiting on his demise to write "I told you so", instead of having a shred of confidence and patience with the great young-ish Tendy we finally have.
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
49,681
64,070
Islands in the stream.
Nah. Dude is trash especially when it's high pressure games. I don't trust this dude at all come playoff time. There's making saves and then making saves and spitting out rebounds every 2 seconds. He makes it so much more difficult for his teammates because easy saves turn into chaos as he shoots it back out in front of the slot. He's a rebound machine, has cost the team many games because of it and come playoff time he will do it again. I guarantee it. Just wait.
Also difficulty with his process and even paying attention. In yesterdays game at end of 2nd period there was a flip in with 3 secs left. All Skinner has to do is deflect that one into the corner, like any astute goalie would with seconds left. Instead he deflects it out which is a stoppage of play and with a couple secs on the clock and an ownzone faceoff. Yotes get a dangerous chance and could have scored off faceoff. On what ought to have been a harmless end of period. I mean the dude didn't control a rebound that was from a dump near 100ft away. From the looks of it he wasn't even thinking about it. Had no awareness of time left on the clock.

Just one of many examples where his concentration is also subpar.
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
49,681
64,070
Islands in the stream.
Lot of Negative Nancy Oiler fans ITT. Lot of guys waiting on his demise to write "I told you so", instead of having a shred of confidence and patience with the great young-ish Tendy we finally have.
bs It would be false to manufacture confidence when you're watching a goalie with several skill deficits and pretend that they don't exist. Skinner is not in my view better than even a Brossoit. Skinner is average skillsets if that.

Twice yesterday he's beat because his crouch is too low and giving up top of net despite Skinner being very tall. I've seen small goalies in this league, shorter, that can cover top better on obvious shots. With Skinner he isn't even back straight, on several shots he doesn't even come out to cut angle. Bjugstad, an ex player that knows Skinner tendencies and practiced with him beats him two times like a rented mule. On the other goal Skinner not only doesn't track the shot, he doesn't even know a pass was made. He didn't even move. The goal light is flashing and still didn't move. He wasn't late getting across, there was no getting accross= instant goal.

Same could be said for Woody. He's a coach that wasn't good enough. Team was getting no adjustments, proper matching, in game changes etc. For the first time since Eakins I wanted a coach gone because an astute coach was going to fix things. That isn't about "I told you so" its about wanting a change that would make the team better. Skinner is not a playoff goalie and has shown that. he's not elite in any sense and has shown that. He's an inexperienced starter in a critically important position in hockey that we don't have time to wait for. We have a Cadillac team in front of Skinner and a VW in goal.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
26,690
22,260
Waterloo Ontario
No, my argument is he’s been more bad than good and we don’t have a plan B should he completely flatline like he did in last years playoff.
One reasonable measure of consistency for goalies is the Quality Starts % (QS%) stat that Hockey reference tracks. This has been around for a while and it is a modification of a stat used to evaluate baseball pitchers. A quality start is one where the goalie has a sv% above league average or if not at least .880 with 2 or less goals allowed.

For what it is worth Skinner has a QS% of .605 this year and had a QS% of .604 last year. His career QS% is .586. For comparison this year Hellebuyck has a QS% of .675 which is actually terrific for a starter. His career QS% is .582.

Demko this year is .659 with a career QS% of .571. Saros this year is at .500 this year but for his career is at .604.

Shesterkin had a QS% well over .700 in 2020-21. But that dropped to .604 last year and is at .543 this year. That parallels his drop in his sv% from .935 to .916 and now at .901. Adin Hill this year is at .711. Such numbers tend to reflect Vezina quality goaltending and are actually quite rare.

In 2020-21 Smith, who was terrific that year, had a .633 QS% which was his best of his career. His over all average was .534.

Why does this matter? The reality is that a team with a decent to very good offense will win the vast majority of games a goalie gets a quality start. This year for example the Oilers have won all but one game when Skinner has a had a QS. The exception being the last Vegas game which with any puck luck they may well have won. The only loss that Pickard had a QS was vs Carolina. Overall you can expect the Oiler to win 90%+ of the games you get a QS from one of the goalies.

Top offensive teams win a fair number of other games so the QS% is a lower bound for a team's expected win rate. (In fact, Oettinger has a QS% of .455 this year (and a sv% of .04), the lowest of his career by far. Dallas has bailed him out a lot this year by outscoring many of his bad games.) So a starter with a QS% of close to .600 is going to give his team an excellent chance at making the playoffs comfortably.

People can comment on Skinner's skill set. I don't profess to be any sort of expert on goalies. But in the end the goal is to stop the puck. The more you do that the more your team wins.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mcdingdong

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
44,180
55,111
Of course Skinner is getting blamed for two rush chances that generated grade AAA high danger uncontested slot shots. Two rush chances that only happens because of breakdowns in defence. First with the Ekholm missing his red line pinch attempt, creating a 2 on 1 and uncontested shot that grazes the “too low” Skinner’s shoulder then mask. Then the second, a bad line change where Bjustad again comes in unconstested with speed and rifles a perfect shot top corner.

You guys want to act like these goals don’t happen to other goalies in this league and yet Rush chances are the most LIKELY goal to happen in this League, League Wide. It’s not unique to Skinner. They are literally the most dangerous shot a team can give up, and the analytics will back this up. Which is why coaches put an emphasis on limiting Rush chances. The Oilers gave up Grade AAA rush chances last night which surprise surprise, the Yotes converted on. Blame for those goals goes directly to the defensive breakdowns that happened in front of them to create the high danger in the first place. Yeh a big save would have been nice, but if you know anything about the probabilities of rush chance in this League they are NOT expected every single time, not even close.

When Knob does his video today, do you think he’s going to be harping on Skinner for not saving those chances? Or do you think he’s going to go over the defensive breakdowns that created those chances in the first place?
 
  • Like
Reactions: yukoner88

DaGap

Registered User
Sponsor
Sep 27, 2017
3,829
3,061
I think the easiest way for people to get a true view of goaltending across the nhl is..

Take the under @ 6.5 goals and put 50 bux on it. I can guarantee you your view of goaltending will change
 
  • Like
Reactions: PULSATING

VainGretzky

Registered User
Jun 4, 2015
14,024
12,726
Nah. Dude is trash especially when it's high pressure games. I don't trust this dude at all come playoff time. There's making saves and then making saves and spitting out rebounds every 2 seconds. He makes it so much more difficult for his teammates because easy saves turn into chaos as he shoots it back out in front of the slot. He's a rebound machine, has cost the team many games because of it and come playoff time he will do it again. I guarantee it. Just wait.
experts.jpg
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
49,681
64,070
Islands in the stream.
Of course Skinner is getting blamed for two rush chances that generated grade AAA high danger uncontested slot shots. Two rush chances that only happens because of breakdowns in defence. First with the Ekholm missing his red line pinch attempt, creating a 2 on 1 and uncontested shot that grazes the “too low” Skinner’s shoulder then mask. Then the second, a bad line change where Bjustad again comes in unconstested with speed and rifles a perfect shot top corner.

You guys want to act like these goals don’t happen to other goalies in this league and yet Rush chances are the most LIKELY goal to happen in this League, League Wide. It’s not unique to Skinner. They are literally the most dangerous shot a team can give up, and the analytics will back this up. Which is why coaches put an emphasis on limiting Rush chances. The Oilers gave up Grade AAA rush chances last night which surprise surprise, the Yotes converted on. Blame for those goals goes directly to the defensive breakdowns that happened in front of them to create the high danger in the first place. Yeh a big save would have been nice, but if you know anything about the probabilities of rush chance in this League they are NOT expected every single time, not even close.

When Knob does his video today, do you think he’s going to be harping on Skinner for not saving those chances? Or do you think he’s going to go over the defensive breakdowns that created those chances in the first place?
Because its what coaches always do. That doesn't have anything to do with locus of blame. It has to do with coaches tending to always focus on limiting chances.

lol at the " Grade AAA high danger uncontested slot shots" It was Bjugstad from the wing beating Skinner essentially on the same shot 2 times going over shoulder and under bar, where the Yotes were aiming all night. ironically on Skinner who is tall, and should be able to block more of those out with his shoulder.
 
Apr 12, 2010
74,959
34,331
Calgary
Skinner is a Brossoit type goalie. A 1B who can take you into the playoffs, but gets exposed in the playoffs. Luckily for Vegas, they had Hill to back up Brossoit. We don't have a real starter and we would be really stupid to not have a plan B going into the playoffs.
Great, where are you getting it?

There isn't one.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
44,180
55,111
Because its what coaches always do. That doesn't have anything to do with locus of blame. It has to do with coaches tending to always focus on limiting chances.

lol at the " Grade AAA high danger uncontested slot shots" It was Bjugstad from the wing beating Skinner essentially on the same shot 2 times going over shoulder and under bar, where the Yotes were aiming all night. ironically on Skinner who is tall, and should be able to block more of those out with his shoulder.

It has everything to do with blame. Blame to a goalie does happen too, when he lets in a goal “he should have had”. A a muffin shot squeaks through him let’s say.

It was a rush chance(by definition dangerous) on a 2on1 with an uncontested SLOT shot. “On the rush” matter when grading danger. “Slot location” matters when grading danger. “Uncontested” matters when grading danger.

If you don’t think that’s a high danger chance in this League, then it’s no wonder nothing Skinner does will ever be good enough for you. False blame to feel right, like I said.
 
  • Like
Reactions: mcdingdong

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
49,681
64,070
Islands in the stream.
That's what you are saying, but you are only backing that up by ignoring his good games. And also ignoring Post-Knob systems change, which ignores the fact that Goalie performance will always be connected to the system he plays behind. Something Woodley preaches. And something evidenced also by Helly before and after Bowness arrived (.910->.920->.925)
Lets cite fired Woody who went out of the playoffs with a bang saying "We win as a team and lose as a team" In the same playoffs in which he pulled Skinner 4X in 12 playoff games yet still bizarrely granted Skinner EVERY playoff start. I'd never seen anything like it.

Plus at other points you're excluding the Woody segment in the schedule saying there was no system in place, or something. Whats the excuse for the last 4 games where Skinner is again under .900 save % every game?

Oh I get it. When the team goes on a run eliminating almost every scoring chance its Skinner being credited specifically. When the team is allowing a few high danger chances that every team allows its immediately the teams fault. haha
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Canovin

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
49,681
64,070
Islands in the stream.
It has everything to do with blame. Blame to a goalie does happen too, when he lets in a goal “he should have had”. A a muffin shot squeaks through him let’s say.

It was a rush chance(by definition dangerous) on a 2on1 with an uncontested SLOT shot. “On the rush” matter when grading danger. “Slot location” matters when grading danger. “Uncontested” matters when grading danger.

If you don’t think that’s a high danger chance in this League, then it’s no wonder nothing Skinner does will ever be good enough for you. False blame to feel right, like I said.
Its a high danger chance because its Skinner in net.


jk around. haha.

Yeah, sure, class it as high danger chance. I say scoring chance, tomato, tomatoe. But you were saying Triple AAA prime grade most dangerous type scoring chances... You're using hyperbole to upside the degree of challenge involved when both shots were imminently stoppable. Bouchard, a more dangerous shooter had two of his howitzer bar under shots stopped by the other goalie, a goalie playing his first NHL game and having to go up against the vaunted Oilers offense, fortunately something Skinner only see's in practice.
 

TheNumber4

Registered User
Nov 11, 2011
44,180
55,111
Lets site fired Woody who went out of the playoffs with a bang saying "We win as a team and lose as a team" In the same playoffs in which he pulled Skinner 4X in 12 playoff games yet still granted Skinner EVERY playoff start. I'd never seen anything like it.

Plus at other points you're excluding the Woody segment in the shedule saying there was no system in place, or something. Whats the excuse for the last 4 games where Skinner is again under .900 save % every game?

You want to cite the fired Woody who was fired for literally having a shoddy defensive system that failed the team and failed Skinner to start this year and also the playoffs? Woody probably gave him those starts because as a former video coach he saw where the breakdown happened and didn’t blame Skinner. What he didn’t realize and couldn’t realize (until offseason review) is that his system bred those mistakes.

We all have seen Knob hockey showing faults lately. It started near the tail end of the streak too and continued after the all star break. Yes, Knob hockey isn’t perfect as well, breakdowns are happening causing an expected lowered performance by the goalie. Cause goalie performance is always directly connected to the quality of defence played in front of him. As Kevin Woodley the actual goalie expert has said numerous times.

You realize that if Ekholm didn’t make a bad pinch last night and if the the team didn’t make a bad change, that Skinner would have had a 1GAA game instead of 3GAA. Like i said, zero acknowledgment of defensive breakdowns by the Skinner detractors. So tunnel visioned on wanting to be “right” about Skinner you are ignoring accurate reads of the quality of our defensive game and system.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Arty Spooners Bsmnt

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
49,681
64,070
Islands in the stream.
You want to cite the fired Woody who was fired for literally having a shoddy defensive system that failed the team and failed Skinner to start this year and also the playoffs? Woody probably gave him those starts because as a former video coach he saw where the breakdown happened and didn’t blame Skinner. What he didn’t realize and couldn’t realize (until offseason review) is that his system bred those mistakes.

We all have seen Knob hockey showing faults lately. It started near the tail end of the streak too and continued after the all star break. Yes, Knob hockey isn’t perfect as well, breakdowns are happening causing an expected lowered performance by the goalie. Cause goalie performance is always directly connected to the quality of defence played in front of him. As Kevin Woodley the actual goalie expert has said numerous times.

You realize that if Ekholm didn’t make a bad pinch last night and if the the team didn’t make a bad change, that Skinner would have had a 1GAA game instead of 3GAA. Like i said, zero acknowledgment of defensive breakdowns by the Skinner detractors. So tunnel visioned on wanting to be “right” about Skinner you are ignoring accurate reads of the quality of our defensive game and system.
You realize that every team has breakdowns, its the nature of hockey to exploit. The Nucks play many of their games like a clownshow getting tons of luck while Demko holds the fort. The one rare night Demko isn't in the Minny Wild of all teams blow by 10 goals past the backup with the usual sorry ass Nuck defending. You seem to be expecting the Oilres to play flawless hockey every night so that Skinner can get some allstar votes. The same team that has seen Skinner blow multiple important games in playoffs and be the reason they lost a series.

Oilers went status quo in offseason keeping both Woody and Skinner as #1. I said at the time that was a mistake on both counts. Skinner would be fine as a backup, he isn't a good NHL starter. He's average.

That said Skinner appears to have worked hard on his game and on some of his more obvious deficits like puck handling or being too deep in cage but its a large body of work for him to get around the game we need him to be at come playoff time.

The trouble is in the West every team except LA that is in spots has better goaltending than we do. Thats an issue at a critical spot.

But I get your point. its the Oilers fault because they allow ANY scoring chances. If only the Oilers never allowed any scoring chances Skinner could have a 1GAA. ;)

Remind me what the purpose of a goalie is when a scoring chance does occur.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Canovin

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad