Confirmed with Link: Stastny (50% ret.) for Foley, 2018 1st, cond. 2020 4th

[garret9]

I quickly calculated the estimated goal differential adding all those situations together and come to this:

Team	FOG
Dallas Stars	5.9
Philadelphia Flyers	4.9
Nashville Predators	4.6
Carolina Hurricanes	4.1
Winnipeg Jets	3.6
Toronto Maple Leafs	2.9
Buffalo Sabres	2.8
Florida Panthers	2.0
San Jose Sharks	1.8
Boston Bruins	1.3
Ottawa Senators	1.2
Minnesota Wild	1.0
Anaheim Ducks	0.8
Washington Capitals	0.5
Pittsburgh Penguins	0.0
St. Louis Blues	0.0
Edmonton Oilers	-0.2
New York Rangers	-0.5
Vegas Golden Knights	-0.8
Vancouver Canucks	-1.1
Calgary Flames	-1.2
Chicago Blackhawks	-1.6
Los Angeles Kings	-1.6
Montreal Canadiens	-2.1
New York Islanders	-2.2
Detroit Red Wings	-2.6
Columbus Blue Jackets	-2.9
Arizona Coyotes	-3.6
Tampa Bay Lightning	-4.1
New Jersey Devils	-4.4
Colorado Avalanche	-8.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Divide those numbers by 5.5 and thats estimated ROW impact.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

This trade has really put an exclamation point on how little pretty much everyone on the TSN crew knows about the Jets. Forced to talk about them because of the Stastny deal the best most of them could come up with is how the Jets have improved their centre position.

Thanks guys, insightful stuff.

Actually thought we got more than enough respect and they showed they knew and followed the Jets to a decent degree.

Mike Johnson talked about how deep the Jets are, how he believed the Jets had the best top 9 in the league, and prior to the trade the best top 6. Marty Biron has been on top of Winnipeg all year and Hellebuyck . Dave Poulin talked about being around the team a lot earlier in the season and that he had a true sense of how much the team liked one another. Jeff O'Neill called them the best team in the league.

Got Kudos from Sutter and Mac, so I would say that they weren't struggling to form opinions on Winnipeg and when they commented it was much more than mediocre praise.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Giving up so much makes me nervous. If we had just stood pat or made a minor trade we'd be playing with house money in the playoffs and I wouldn't have been too too upset if they got eliminated in the 1st round as long as it was a close series. Making a trade like this puts too much pressure to get out of the first round.

Sometimes ya gotta make a serious bet when you're holding all aces.

 

[CorgisPer60]

So the only problem we have is the likely TSN intern who put the graphic together, because you know Bobby Mac and James Duthie don't do that photoshop thing. I actually thought they were laying the coverage on a little thick earlier, but with only two Canadian teams poised to make the playoffs this year, they don't have that many feel good stories to talk about. The Statsny acquisition came out of left field. Caught everyone by surprise. No one knew about it until the Jets PR team released the information.

Sometimes ya gotta make a serious bet when you're holding all aces.

Agreed. The Central, and by extension the West is as open as it's ever been. The Jets are in a great position to contend for a deep playoff run, so take advantage of it before extensions and ELCs expire.

 

[Ducky10]

Actually thought we got more than enough respect and they showed they knew and followed the Jets to a decent degree.

Mike Johnson talked about how deep the Jets are, how he believed the Jets had the best top 9 in the league, and prior to the trade the best top 6. Marty Biron has been on top of Winnipeg all year and Hellebuyck . Dave Poulin talked about being around the team a lot earlier in the season and that he had a true sense of how much the team liked one another. Jeff O'Neill called them the best team in the league.

Got Kudos from Sutter and Mac, so I would say that they weren't struggling to form opinions on Winnipeg and when they commented it was much more than mediocre praise.

Not talking about respect, more knowledge of the team. Other than Poulin and Johnson (who've worked Jets games), I thought most of the analysis was pretty generic and dull.

I like Sutter though, can't stand Biron.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

I kinda want to see if this middle 6 works:

Perreault-Little-Ehlers
Laine-Stastny-Roslovic

Would solve your issue, and would see the return of the ever-so-dominant PLE. The only matter is convincing Mo to play Laine at LW.

I don’t, that’s the last thing I’d want for Maurice to do. Little just started jelling with Perrault and Roslovic, dammit before that line was introduced he could hardly finnish a shift out of breath in his own zone now(with the ELL, PLE and PLL lines) and now opponents can’t get Littles line out of the O-zone(the puck just doesn’t leave that zone without immediately re-entering). Why risk it just to look cooler and try new things.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Pointed out by Sutter and MacLean, if Winnipeg stumbles it would likely be early in round one, how they respond to that is key.

They both said if they get past that challenge they could go along way. Implication to me meaning SC final. Or as I am going to now term it, Stastny Copp.

 

[GNP]

Out of 60 face offs, but keep in mind that neutral zone face offs --which are the bulk of them-- are almost benign, which further shows how overrated face offs stats are.

Winning 100 face offs *more than you lose* is worth...

• 0.9 goals for EV neutral zone FO
• 2.5 goals for EV non-neutral zone FO
• 3.5 goals for PP offensive zone or PK defensive zone

To give some context to that, the best and worst in each of those categories...

• CAR 55.7% FO% in those situations is worth about 1.1 goals; COL 42.6% FO% in those situations is worth about -1.4 goals
• DAL 54.8% FO% in those situations is worth about 4.8 goals; COL 44.0% FO% in those situations is worth about -4.6 goals
• BUF 55.3% FO% in those situations is worth about 2.1 goals; COL 39.2% FO% in those situations is worth about -2.7 goals

_____________________________________________________

Great post Garret and highly interesting. I guess winning face offs and retaining possession is highly important, judging by your numbers. I'll have to read this over and digest what you've said here--thanks a lot -

I would think most people would not know this-maybe coaches as well ???

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just meant either him or Little will be the Jets 3rd line centre and making 5+ million which isn't feasible.

It is feasible. It would be very difficult but not impossible.

We don't even know if it is desirable until we see how well he works out.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If we had landed Brassard would we not have kept him and his salary for next year?? Pretty sure we would have.

Same equation as with Stastny. The crunch starts next year, not the year after as some have thought.

If Jets like him enough to be willing to move one of Trouba, Buff, Ehlers or 1 or 2 others then they may keep him. Ideally they can move Mason, but that won't be easy without retaining and is pointless with retention. Or, sign Trouba and move Myers. Not sure that frees up enough beyond next year though.

It gets complicated - and difficult - but it seems like other teams can manage somehow when they want to badly enough.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I gotta say listening to the Chevy interview it seemed like him and the STL GM had a pretty solid working relationship. It seemed like they had discussed this theoretically earlier, then when Doug Armstrong decided to sell he picked up and specifically called Chevy. It also sounded like they were both very much on the same page of respecting Stastny and his family. Makes me very proud and gives me respect for the blues organization.

Also makes me really hope that this deal works out marvelously for both sides. Here is hoping Stastny is a big part of us going far, and that Foley really makes us regret this in a few years!

Also, the timing definitely confused me. From the interview it sounded like they worked out all the trade details before they told Stastny, then let him sleep on it. Which would have meant they had things settled yesterday. But in that case it doesn't seem likely that they were that hard in on Brassard or Plekanec. I'm thinking that may have just been a media thing...

e

Brassard was earlier in the game, it it does sound to me like it had an impact on Pleks. Perhaps Chevy bowed out of that one quietly and intentionally

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

a late 1st rnd pick in a weak draft.
and ppl are complaining?

It isn't a weak draft. Its strength is in Dmen instead of the usual high scoring C's. That does not make it weak.

It was a lot to give up but the potential payoff is big. Risk:Reward

 

[Aavco Cup]

Actually thought we got more than enough respect and they showed they knew and followed the Jets to a decent degree.

Mike Johnson talked about how deep the Jets are, how he believed the Jets had the best top 9 in the league, and prior to the trade the best top 6. Marty Biron has been on top of Winnipeg all year and Hellebuyck . Dave Poulin talked about being around the team a lot earlier in the season and that he had a true sense of how much the team liked one another. Jeff O'Neill called them the best team in the league.

Got Kudos from Sutter and Mac, so I would say that they weren't struggling to form opinions on Winnipeg and when they commented it was much more than mediocre praise.

Also O dog said we won the day

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Also O dog said we won the day

He said he thought we would win the cup too I recall after a day of pleasant hockey overload. I can't complain on their Jets knowledge and certainly the praise. Kind of rather have it toned down, but as I said in another post, you deal with the pressure if you want to win.

We do.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

It isn't a weak draft. Its strength is in Dmen instead of the usual high scoring C's. That does not make it weak.

It was a lot to give up but the potential payoff is big. Risk:Reward

Yet to be seen on the strength of the draft, if Jets draft say 25 ish I don't think it's a given there would be a Roslovic or Vesalainen there. Now of course there are always players drafted late that turn out very well.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Yet to be seen on the strength of the draft, if Jets draft say 25 ish I don't think it's a given there would be a Roslovic or Vesalainen there. Now of course there are always players drafted late that turn out very well.

The Jets will draft 62 ish now

 

[kittiecarlyle]

The Jets will draft 62 ish now

Or move up, they still have some pieces to move plus if they want to shuffle the lineup a bit as in moving some bigger salary contracts to make room, well draft picks in return make sense.

Love the 62, say wasn't that Stastny's # at one point/

 

[Aavco Cup]

Or move up, they still have some pieces to move plus if they want to shuffle the lineup a bit as in moving some bigger salary contracts to make room, well draft picks in return make sense.

Love the 62, say wasn't that Stastny's # at one point/

Well they could always trade Myers or and move way up

 

[garret9]

The Jets will draft 62 ish now

Ish? As in around that? As in it may be later?
/sarcasm lol

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Well they could always trade Myers or and move way up

Yes that was one of the points I tried to make lol. Seriously the Jets have a lot of options, if they want to add a high dollar salary they have players with similar contracts to offset the cost addition. I recall Chevy I think in year two at the draft saying how he wanted to be, get to a position where he had such options and ammunition.

Well he has that now in a big way PLUS a team that is a true contender. You really can't ask for more than that.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Ish? As in around that? As in it may be later?
/sarcasm lol

Maybe we move down 1 or 2

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

It isn't a weak draft. Its strength is in Dmen instead of the usual high scoring C's. That does not make it weak.

It was a lot to give up but the potential payoff is big. Risk:Reward

Apparently minds have changed. I had originally heard this was a deep draft as well & it was the opinion of panelists, experts & regular posters.

Earlier today Aavco stated that this wasn't a deep draft. Questioning this I had a look around & it appears many now share this thought.

If this team actually does go all the way no one will care that we traded away #31 anyways. Would anyone really complain that we won the Cup when this pick had always been a crap shoot?

That begs the question who was the best player ever drafted at #31? These are among the best.

1. Felix Potvin
2. John Tucker
3. Dave "Tiger" Williams
4. Georges Laraque
5. Jacob Markstrom

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yet to be seen on the strength of the draft, if Jets draft say 25 ish I don't think it's a given there would be a Roslovic or Vesalainen there. Now of course there are always players drafted late that turn out very well.

We won't really know for about 5 years. But we will be able to make a pretty good guess in 2-3.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Apparently minds have changed. I had originally heard this was a deep draft as well & it was the opinion of panelists, experts & regular posters.

Earlier today Aavco stated that this wasn't a deep draft. Questioning this I had a look around & it appears many now share this thought.

If this team actually does go all the way no one will care that we traded away #31 anyways. Would anyone really complain that we won the Cup when this pick had always been a crap shoot?

That begs the question who was the best player ever drafted at #31? These are among the best.

1. Felix Potvin
2. John Tucker
3. Dave "Tiger" Williams
4. Georges Laraque
5. Jacob Markstrom

This trade will be judged more by how well Stastny performs for us than by how good the player taken with that pick turns out. People still kvetch about the Setoguchi trade but look who was taken with those picks.

But yes, if we win the cup - or even make the SCF, I think there won't be much complaining about it.

 

[Maukkis]

Apparently minds have changed. I had originally heard this was a deep draft as well & it was the opinion of panelists, experts & regular posters.

Earlier today Aavco stated that this wasn't a deep draft. Questioning this I had a look around & it appears many now share this thought.

If this team actually does go all the way no one will care that we traded away #31 anyways. Would anyone really complain that we won the Cup when this pick had always been a crap shoot?

That begs the question who was the best player ever drafted at #31? These are among the best.

1. Felix Potvin
2. John Tucker
3. Dave "Tiger" Williams
4. Georges Laraque
5. Jacob Markstrom

If you win the Cup, nobody should have anything to complain about.

If you don't... then it depends.

Let's put it this way: I put together a list of the last eleven teams who paid big prices for rentals at TDL. Two of those eleven reached the finals with their respective rental in the lineup, whereas the rest were major disappointments. Those are not good odds.

Even this year, five teams splashed the cash (TB, BOS, NSH, WPG, PIT). Four of the five will fail to make it all the way. (granted that not every acquisition was a pure rental, but you get the point)