Player Discussion: Stanley

[DannyGallivan]

True but I’d like to see him against Colorado, Vegas and some of the other top teams.

Hence, why the entire season is so inaccurate on a historical level.

 

[snowkiddin]

A rookie D who has shown some encouraging play with butter soft minutes is hard to replicate?

I'd bet they expose Stanley, especially with Heinola and Samberg waiting.

I’m talking more so about his size. Not many players in the game that are 6-foot-7 or whatever it is that he is.

 

[Jet]

Samberg you mean the guy playing mediocre for the Moose?

Yeah, write him off - I mean he's played literally tens of pro games.

 

[Jet]

I’m talking more so about his size. Not many players in the game that are 6-foot-7 or whatever it is that he is.

I really like Stanley and I hope they keep him somehow, but I think people are undervaluing Demelo.

A bird in the hand etc.

 

[snowkiddin]

I really like Stanley and I hope they keep him somehow, but I think people are undervaluing Demelo.

A bird in the hand etc.

I agree 100%.

DeMelo started the year playing like buried dogshit but since he’s found his game he’s been our second-best defenseman. Anyone we put we him plays much better too. I’d hate to lose him for nothing.

At least Seattle is a market that deserves an NHL team.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

I like Big Stan but if all he can be is a 3rd pair guy... It's a no brainer you don't protect him over legit NHL d men like Demelo

 

[ps241]

A rookie D who has shown some encouraging play with butter soft minutes is hard to replicate?

I'd bet they expose Stanley, especially with Heinola and Samberg waiting.

As @Joe Hallenback said, if the Jets lose Stanley it's a loss but not an unrecoverable one. Jets have two LHD that I think should be better (no guarantees though) and one that has been a mess but I think is fixable (Morrissey).

Yea both of your posts seem to be against the flow of enthusiasm on our board that has morphed into anyone but Stanley to Seattle growing bandwagon.

It will be interesting to see how TNSE view this. One of the Athletic articles was saying it looks like Seattle may have lots of quality D men to take but they may be struggling more for forwards so perhaps that is going to be their target from the Jets anyways but time will tell.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah, write him off - I mean he's played literally tens of pro games.

Sounds like your previous post is writing Stanley off and are already pencilling in his replacement but you do you.

 

[scelaton]

Yea both of your posts seem to be against the flow of enthusiasm on our board that has morphed into anyone but Stanley to Seattle growing bandwagon.

It will be interesting to see how TNSE view this. One of the Athletic articles was saying it looks like Seattle may have lots of quality D men to take but they may be struggling more for forwards so perhaps that is going to be their target from the Jets anyways but time will tell.

Yeah, there is a bit of irrational exuberance about Stanley, but it just makes up for the HFJ suicide watch that was triggered by drafting him

I don't think people are undervaluing DeMelo, but we know pretty much what he is--a safe, competent complementary D who can play that role up and down the lineup for the next 3 years, @ $3M. Then he will be a UFA in his 30s and likely gone. Valuable, but shorter-term and not exciting.

We really have no idea what we have in Stanley, which makes it more exciting. At age 22, he is already NHL-worthy, so there is a floor that wasn't there a few months ago. His ceiling is as yet unknown but IF he continues to improve at this rate, and IF we then take advantage of team control for the next 8+ years, then there is a lot to be exuberant about.

 

[Whileee]

As @Joe Hallenback said, if the Jets lose Stanley it's a loss but not an unrecoverable one. Jets have two LHD that I think should be better (no guarantees though) and one that has been a mess but I think is fixable (Morrissey).

Agree.

But I think the Jets could probably find a trade partner to take Stanley before the expansion draft. Teams that I think would protect Stanley in the expansion draft?

Arizona
Detroit?
Kings?
Devils
Sens

 

[Jet]

Sounds like your previous post is writing Stanley off and are already pencilling in his replacement but you do you.

I'm not writing anyone off, but someone has to be exposed. Samberg by most projections will end up better than Stanley, and if we have to choose now between an established top 4 RHD (DeMelo) and a promising rookie bottom pair LHD (Stanley) I know who I'm exposing.
But I'm just doing me.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'm not writing anyone off, but someone has to be exposed. Samberg by most projections will end up better than Stanley, and if we have to choose now between an established top 4 RHD (DeMelo) and a promising rookie bottom pair LHD (Stanley) I know who I'm exposing.
But I'm just doing me.

Samberg and Stanley are the same age. One is in the n the other in the A. He needs to do more in A for it to be anymore than projections. I would also protect demelo but hoping they take Harkins who is the same age or older and not playing in n. Stanley can be the 7th d if lucky. That doesn’t mean easily replaceable. Depth at d isn’t a bad thing.
Will get over whoever we lose but will mourn it for an hr.

 

[ps241]

Yeah, there is a bit of irrational exuberance about Stanley, but it just makes up for the HFJ suicide watch that was triggered by drafting him

I don't think people are undervaluing DeMelo, but we know pretty much what he is--a safe, competent complementary D who can play that role up and down the lineup for the next 3 years, @ $3M. Then he will be a UFA in his 30s and likely gone. Valuable, but shorter-term and not exciting.

We really have no idea what we have in Stanley, which makes it more exciting. At age 22, he is already NHL-worthy, so there is a floor that wasn't there a few months ago. His ceiling is as yet unknown but IF he continues to improve at this rate, and IF we then take advantage of team control for the next 8+ years, then there is a lot to be exuberant about.

Yea Stan was dismissed summarily by most (NOT ALL) and now the pendulum has probably over corrected a bit which is refreshing. The truth lies in the middle somewhere.

Unknown is always more exciting as we can constantly witness on any pre-peak players on the main board or any team HFBoards thread. Cole Caufield is on his 4th Thread on the main prospects board. That is over 2000 posts and counting on a prospect playing College hockey in the US.

The debating is always fierce on prospect polls or articles by Button, Pronman, Wheeler. I think it’s because “hope” is intoxicating and also self medicating when dealing with a team that isn’t good enough yet.

I love the draft and love adding prospects because to me it’s exciting for all the reasons I just listed. I am as guilty as anyone for owning emotional real estate at the Field of Dreams.

 

[Whileee]

Samberg and Stanley are the same age. One is in the n the other in the A. He needs to do more in A for it to be anymore than projections. I would also protect demelo but hoping they take Harkins who is the same age or older and not playing in n. Stanley can be the 7th d if lucky. That doesn’t mean easily replaceable. Depth at d isn’t a bad thing.
Will get over whoever we lose but will mourn it for an hr.

Samberg had a short camp after transitioning to the AHL. He's getting reps at the AHL level to solidify his game, but I think it's a mistake to assess him based on being in the AHL. If he had come out of college a year earlier as the Jets hoped, he likely would be on the NHL roster after a season in the AHL.

Another consideration is that the Jets need to decide on Stanley's future this season, because of the expansion draft, and waiver eligibility. The Jets have less impetus to assess Samberg or Heinola at this point.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

I like Big Stan but if all he can be is a 3rd pair guy... It's a no brainer you don't protect him over legit NHL d men like Demelo

And as the second youngest player on our roster, 4 to 5 years from his prime, we know exactly what Stanley’s ceiling is. (roll my eyes emoji inserted here)

 

[garret9]

And as the second youngest player on our roster, 4 to 5 years from his prime, we know exactly what Stanley’s ceiling is. (roll my eyes emoji inserted here)

Average prime is 23-24, although the range of distribution can vary.
Myers peaked around 20. Oleksiak around 26.
So who knows, but I wouldn't automatically place money on later peak.

 

[Whileee]

Average prime is 23-24, although the range of distribution can vary.
Myers peaked around 20. Oleksiak around 26.
So who knows, but I wouldn't automatically place money on later peak.

Do you have any sources that show the actual distribution and standard errors around 5he aging curves? I typically have very little interest in means without knowing the distribution and statistical precision.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

Agree.

But I think the Jets could probably find a trade partner to take Stanley before the expansion draft. Teams that I think would protect Stanley in the expansion draft?

Arizona
Detroit?
Kings?
Devils
Sens

Who do they get in that trade in exchange and would that not mean that player is exposed?

I like Demelo cause he goes about his business in a workperson like fashion but Stanley has the sizzle with that shot and size. He had a rough game tonight but has impressed in most other games.

 

[garret9]

Do you have any sources that show the actual distribution and standard errors around 5he aging curves? I typically have very little interest in means without knowing the distribution and statistical precision.

Not on me but it's skewed and iirc correctly it's either 21 or 22 to 27 or 28... can't remember. Also depends on the model as some are tighter around the mean than others.
Injuries and usage (not like QoT or QoC but role and coaches and such) are a huge confounder that I think makes the sdev larger than the true results are.

 

[DannyGallivan]

I'm not writing anyone off, but someone has to be exposed. Samberg by most projections will end up better than Stanley, and if we have to choose now between an established top 4 RHD (DeMelo) and a promising rookie bottom pair LHD (Stanley) I know who I'm exposing.
But I'm just doing me.

Demelo = journeyman defenseman, inconsistent this season, unlikely to improve at this age, solid when on his game, replaceable at a low cost.
Stanley = long term project that is now bearing fruit, second best plus minus among rookies in league, solid in a somewhat protected role, improving every game, unknown ceiling.

I know who I'd let Seattle take as well.

 

[Jet]

Demelo = journeyman defenseman, inconsistent this season, unlikely to improve at this age, solid when on his game, replaceable at a low cost.
Stanley = long term project that is now bearing fruit, second best plus minus among rookies in league, s0lid in a somewhat protected role, improving every game, unknown ceiling.

I know who I'd let Seattle take as well.

Demelo is a right hand d and has been or second best defenseman after a rough start. Again, I think some are undervaluing him.

 

[scelaton]

Steady progression continues. With an assist, +1 (and +11 in his 27 games) he continues to have net positive impact, despite fewer minutes played. Those minutes are now increasing--played 17+ minutes last night at 5x5, 37% of all ES minutes and more than any other Jets defenseman.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Demelo is a right hand d and has been or second best defenseman after a rough start. Again, I think some are undervaluing him.

Don't get me wrong... threads where we have to pick one player over tends to sound like we're underestimating the player we're not choosing. I like Demelo for what he brings. In a perfect world, I hope that we keep Stanley and Demelo. Demelo serves his role adequately until the likes of Heinola, Samberg and Chisholm can take the next step. It's just that I've seen far too many GMs give up on young players only to have them blossom on other teams. That is the most painful cut of all.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Average prime is 23-24, although the range of distribution can vary.
Myers peaked around 20. Oleksiak around 26.
So who knows, but I wouldn't automatically place money on later peak.

I would feel very comfortable putting money on Stanley being a better player in 4 years time, than he is today.

Myers is an anomaly to me when assessing tall players development. Its rare for a player to peak in their rookie season, which I think had much to do with how he was developed in their system. Should have spent a couple of seasons in the A instead of being thrown to the wolves in Buffalo.

Chara was 25 when he peaked, same with Pronger and Buff (6.5 is tall IMO).

 

[Channelcat]

I like Big Stan but if all he can be is a 3rd pair guy... It's a no brainer you don't protect him over legit NHL d men like Demelo

He's better than Chara was at 22. There's no way you expose Stanley.