Proposal: St. Louis/Buffalo: Schenn to the Sabres

[67Blues]

Buffalo is the Pittsburgh of the mid 2000's right now. Smart calculated trades for additional talent is what they need to do, no crazy roster changing trade. They are on the cusp of being a dominant team.

When you have generational talent, give Pittsburgh a call.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

DO NOT WANT. Sabres are in a growing year. Schenn is unnecessary. How many times must this be said?

Actually, even in Mitts matures we still need a 2nd/3rd line center. No, there is not one in Rochester. It is something that should happen but not necessarily Schenn.

 

[Der Jaeger]

When you have generational talent, give Pittsburgh a call.

Rasmus Dahlin says halla.

 

[Blueston]

Fair



Perhaps?




Ok so likely two elite players.... That’s 2 more than St louis



That’s the benefit of having 2 elite players... they make the good players even better



If Sam Reinhart is a middling player... what does that say about St Louis roster? Since he’s outsxoring everyone on it...



Thanks. We are.

Reinhart is good. Not sure he is 3rd best forward on a true contender, but he is good.

As for St. Louis, we aren't good. If I were a Sabres fan I'd be more worried about the multiple teams in my division who are clearly more talented and less about St. Louis (except for draft position).

 

[67Blues]

Rasmus Dahlin says halla.

Lets see how that pans out before erecting a statue in his name.

 

[Reality Czech]

When you have generational talent, give Pittsburgh a call.

Silly Buffalo fans. They have been bad for so long that they seem to think that a couple months of winning actually means something.

 

[bleedblue1223]

That’s the benefit of having 2 elite players... they make the good players even better

If you want to die on the math hill, you should at least understand unsustainability and regression toward the mean.

 

[Jame]

If you want to die on the math hill, you should at least understand unsustainability and regression toward the mean.

the variables that contributed to that mean... have changed... and changed drastically.

In Skinner's case.... his 10% career shooting % is reflective of playing with the likes of Riley Nash and Derek Ryan at center. And because of that skill level, Skinner was the puck dominant player... carrying the puck, creating his own shot, firing pucks from everywhere, etc. This leads to many lower quality shots.

Now he's centered by a puck dominant super star.... he takes far fewer low % shots, and gets a lot more high danger chances. His newfound shooting % is reflective of his new reality.

Do I think he's going to sustain 23% shooting year over year? No... but there are plenty of elite scorers who shoot in the 15-20% year after year.... Skinner is an elite scorer.

So, no... his shooting % is not likely to regress to the Carolina mean of 10%.

 

[bleedblue1223]

the variables that contributed to that mean... have changed... and changed drastically.

In Skinner's case.... his 10% career shooting % is reflective of playing with the likes of Riley Nash and Derek Ryan at center. And because of that skill level, Skinner was the puck dominant player... carrying the puck, creating his own shot, firing pucks from everywhere, etc. This leads to many lower quality shots.

Now he's centered by a puck dominant super star.... he takes far fewer low % shots, and gets a lot more high danger chances. His newfound shooting % is reflective of his new reality.

Do I think he's going to sustain 23% shooting year over year? No... but there are plenty of elite scorers who shoot in the 15-20% year after year.... Skinner is an elite scorer.

So, no... his shooting % is not likely to regress to the Carolina mean of 10%.

Where did I say 10%? No where. We don't know where his standard shooting % will be in Buffalo, but we definitely know it won't be 23.2%. And players typically don't see dramatic shifts in their shooting % anyway, even with improved talent around them. Going from around 10% career average to 20% is just unheard of, even when going from non-elite talent to elite talent. Skinner has always been a streaky scorer with high variability in shooting % year to year.

Part of his increase in production also comes down to simple increase in ice time, that will keep his raw numbers ahead of his Carolina numbers moving forward.

 

[Jame]

Silly Buffalo fans. They have been bad for so long that they seem to think that a couple months of winning actually means something.

I can't see you behind all those Stanley Cups you've won.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I can't see you behind all those Stanley Cups you've won.

If you use a Cup insult, you should probably be a fan of a team who has won a Cup. Blues and Sabres are in the same boat.

 

[Jame]

Where did I say 10%? No where.

What mean were you implying he regress toward?

We don't know where his standard shooting % will be in Buffalo, but we definitely know it won't be 23.2%.

Funny enough... we've been hearing that for the last 20+ games...

And players typically don't see dramatic shifts in their shooting % anyway, even with improved talent around them. Going from around 10% career average to 20% is just unheard of, even when going from non-elite talent to elite talent.

Elite goal scoring wingers don't typically don't go from playing with 3rd line centers to playing with elite centers.

Skinner has always been a streaky scorer with high variability in shooting % year to year. Part of his increase in production also comes down to simple increase in ice time, that will keep his raw numbers ahead of his Carolina numbers moving forward.

Skinner's Carolina history is largely irrelevant.

 

[Jame]

If you use a Cup insult, you should probably be a fan of a team who has won a Cup. Blues and Sabres are in the same boat.

Exactly, that was my point. Blues fans shouldn't be throwing stones like:
"Silly Buffalo fans. They have been bad for so long that they seem to think that a couple months of winning actually means something."

 

[bleedblue1223]

What mean were you implying he regress toward?

Funny enough... we've been hearing that for the last 20+ games...

Elite goal scoring wingers don't typically don't go from playing with 3rd line centers to playing with elite centers.

Skinner's Carolina history is largely irrelevant.

Regressions towards the mean as a concept. It's astounding that you will talk about Schenn's unsustainable production in the first 2/3 months of last season, which all Blues fans would agree was unsustainable, even when it was happening, and now act like Skinner's production will be his new standard or close to it. And, yes ROR didn't suddenly become a ppg center either.

You can look at some of the wingers that have gone to Pittsburgh and then left. You can make the argument that production will improve, but you can go through the history of the league and I doubt you'll find many examples if any of players increasing their shooting % by 10+ after changing teams/teammates and sustaining it.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Exactly, that was my point. Blues fans shouldn't be throwing stones like:
"Silly Buffalo fans. They have been bad for so long that they seem to think that a couple months of winning actually means something."

That wasn't a Cup insult and Dahlin shouldn't be called generational yet, he has the potential, but he has to meet it first.

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

Like I've said before. I'd like to have Schenn, but it's never going to happen. If Botterill overpays for Schenn, after trading O'Reilly to the same team for less, he's going to look like an idiot.

I mean, I guess he could offer thier 1st and Thompson back. That would make it Schenn with one year left and two cap dumps for O'Reilly with 4 years left.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Like I've said before. I'd like to have Schenn, but it's never going to happen. If Botterill overpays for Schenn, after trading O'Reilly to the same team for less, he's going to look like an idiot.

I mean, I guess he could offer thier 1st and Thompson back. That would make to it Schenn with one year left and two cap dumps for O'Reilly with 4 years left.

Yeah, your only core piece above 23 is Skinner at 26. Now really isn't the time to move assets for players to try and win now. Enjoy this season for what it is, and reassess in the off-season.

 

[Jame]

That wasn't a Cup insult

Insults are insults
glass houses are glass houses.

and Dahlin shouldn't be called generational yet, he has the potential, but he has to meet it first.

Dahlin is/was a generational prospect.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Dahlin is/was a generational prospect.

The post they were referring to was comparing Buffalo to Pittsburgh. Crosby and Malkin entered the league as elite players, Dahlin isn't there yet, that's the point. He could get there, I believe he'll get there, but he has to get there first. Until Eichel and Dahlin are on Crosby and Malkin's level, then they aren't Pittsburgh of the 2000s. There have been other generational prospects that don't live up to their potential.

 

[Jame]

Regressions towards the mean as a concept. It's astounding that you will talk about Schenn's unsustainable production in the first 2/3 months of last season, which all Blues fans would agree was unsustainable, even when it was happening, and now act like Skinner's production will be his new standard or close to it. And, yes ROR didn't suddenly become a ppg center either.

You got me there.

 

[bleedblue1223]

You got me there.

Fair enough, I'll leave it at that and just move on.

For the record, I do hope Buffalo is able to build a winner out of this core. Would be nice for one of the small/mid markets that hasn't won before to win it.

 

[Jame]

The post they were referring to was comparing Buffalo to Pittsburgh. Crosby and Malkin entered the league as elite players, Dahlin isn't there yet, that's the point. He could get there, I believe he'll get there, but he has to get there first. Until Eichel and Dahlin are on Crosby and Malkin's level, then they aren't Pittsburgh of the 2000s. There have been other generational prospects that don't live up to their potential.

There hasn't been a "generational" defensive prospect in decades. Comparing such a prospect to a forward entering the league is pointless.

Calling them Pittsburgh of the 2000s is not a statement I had any intention of defending. I took issue with the insult of Buffalo fans.

 

[Jame]

Yeah, your only core piece above 23 is Skinner at 26. Now really isn't the time to move assets for players to try and win now. Enjoy this season for what it is, and reassess in the off-season.

An opportunity for our young core to experience not only a playoff series... but playoff success.

There's a fine line between patience and going for it. I believe Botterill has to find ways to improve a ridiculously flawed middle 6 THIS year, to give his team the best chance to make the playoffs and win in the post season.

That doesn't mean start emptying the cupboards. It doesn't mean take the best deal out there.

But it does mean to take seriously every opportunity, apply cost/benefit, and act accordingly.

 

[bleedblue1223]

An opportunity for our young core to experience not only a playoff series... but playoff success.

There's a fine line between patience and going for it. I believe Botterill has to find ways to improve a ridiculously flawed middle 6 THIS year, to give his team the best chance to make the playoffs and win in the post season.

That doesn't mean start emptying the cupboards. It doesn't mean take the best deal out there.

But it does mean to take seriously every opportunity, apply cost/benefit, and act accordingly.

Sure, I just wouldn't give a 1st for anything, reasonably at least. If you can give up a 2nd and prospects that you guys aren't sold on being apart of a future core, then it might be worth it. The core is still young enough that 1st round picks still have a solid chance at being apart of it. That would at least be my mentality.

 

[Jame]

Sure, I just wouldn't give a 1st for anything, reasonably at least. If you can give up a 2nd and prospects that you guys aren't sold on being apart of a future core, then it might be worth it. The core is still young enough that 1st round picks still have a solid chance at being apart of it. That would at least be my mentality.

I just hate the idea of passing on today's opportunity, because you believe there's a better opportunity down the line... that's the mentality I'd have if we were a bad team, or a 500 team... but we're not. We've put ourselves in a good strong playoff position near the mid point of the season. It's time to accept that we are here.

If I could get Eric Staal for our 2020 1st (top 10 protected).... I would do it.

He fills our biggest short term need (2C). Increases our playoff odds, and gives us a chance to win a series.

I think the value in winning a post season series is unquantifiable, yet incredibly valuable in our young cores development towards being a contender. And if you win one round... anything can happen.

And who knows... a vet like Staal, experiencing that playoff win, and seeing the direction of the young team... might want to sign on for another year at a nice price.