Proposal: St. Louis/Buffalo: Schenn to the Sabres

[Jame]

The Blues traded for a 50-60 point winger. They would be trading a 60-70 point C. There is a large difference in value there.

The Blues traded for Brayden Schenn... they would be trading Brayden Schenn

Teams looking to trade for Schenn would 100% be looking for C help. Exhibit A: this thread.

Agreed... looking for middle 6 / 2nd-3rd line center help.

Does the increase in Schenn’s value given position and production offset the decrease is term? I would argue it does, but I suppose reasonable minds could differ on this point.

Agreed.

However I guess the broader point I’m trying to make is that St. Louis values Schenn highly as a C and other teams probably do as well. I dont see any reason to trade our excellent 1B/2 C to get back a pick we would most likely retain this year or hope to be in the 20+ range next year.

Agreed. Debating the value of the trade is irrelevant if the St Louis side isn't thinking rebuild.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Not really. The reality is that the guy playing 1st line/Tarasenko minutes in St Louis is the guy on pace for 70+ points at that time... it was Schenn most of last year before the injuries blew your lineup apart.... it was ROR for most of this year until recently. Now you've gone back to Schenn/Tarasenko, and Schenn is picking up the scoring, while ROR is falling off the pace.

Buffalo will not have a #1 center roll/minutes for Schenn to play... nor will almost any team trading for him. And therefor, his trade value won't be measured by the production he's had in a role that the acquiring team won't be able to use him in.

Once upon a time Derek Roy was able to put up 81, 70, and 69 points in 3 consecutive seasons... why? Because there was no one else to play #1 center, and he was flanked by Thomas Vanek... that didn't make his trade value that of a 1st line center.

You said 50 point pace, that's as misleading as it gets.

 

[Jame]

You said 50 point pace, that's as misleading as it gets.

22 points in 30 games = 0.73 pts per game
missed 13% of games YTD
13% of remaining 48 games = ~6 games
Project he plays 42 of 48 remaining games
42 games * .73 pts per game = ~30 points

22 points actual + 30 points projected = 52 point end of year projection

 

[CapnZin]

What do you think his role and linemates in Buffalo will be?
Hint: Not 1st line (Eichel) and not flanked by Skinner/Reinhart

He'd be acquired to be a middle 6/#2-3 center (Mittelstadt being the other center in the middle 6). He'd likely have strong defensive responsibilities with Eichel and Mitts lines getting all the juicy offense. And his wingers... would likely be mediocre to poor (think, Okposo, Pominville types who can't keep up with Eichel/Mittelstadt lines).

Schenn is better than “Mitts” at the moment. Developmentally speaking, it may not be best to throw “Mitts” in a 3C role, but Schenn playing in an offensive role is what’s most effective and efficient for him.

Right now, Mittelstadts pace is for 22 points (10/37)*82= 22.16... evenly distributed between goals and assists: 11G - 11A - 22TP. He may pick it up, but getting a more offensively sound player in a 2C role could do wonders.

 

[bleedblue1223]

22 points in 30 games = 0.73 pts per game
missed 13% of games YTD
13% of remaining 48 games = ~6 games
Project he plays 42 of 48 remaining games
42 games * .73 pts per game = ~30 points

22 points actual + 30 points projected = 52 point end of year projection

And I assume you placed similar value on Eichel on his shortened seasons, or more likely just opposing team players. Like I said misleading.

 

[Jame]

Schenn is better than “Mitts” at the moment.

Agreed

Developmentally speaking, it may not be best to throw “Mitts” in a 3C role, but Schenn playing in an offensive role is what’s most effective and efficient for him.

Agreed

Right now, Mittelstadts pace is for 22 points (10/37)*82= 22.16... evenly distributed between goals and assists: 11G - 11A - 22TP. He may pick it up, but getting a more offensively sound player in a 2C role could do wonders.

Only if the plan was to move Mittelstadt to wing with Schenn.... which would then still leave 2 of 4 lines centered by 4th liners (Sobotka, Larsson).

The goal of acquiring a center is to get Sobotka out of the top 9 (He's currently our 2nd line center).

 

[Jame]

And I assume you placed similar value on Eichel on his shortened seasons, or more likely just opposing team players. Like I said misleading.

My statement is not misleading because of your assumptions. That's on you.

 

[MissouriMook]

If Buffalo fans are looking for a player from the Blues roster that can be a capable 2C now and slide down to 3C in a year or so when Mittelstadt pushes him down, the guy you're looking for is Bozak, not Schenn.

 

[bleedblue1223]

My statement is not misleading because of your assumptions. That's on you.

No, calling someone that they're not is simply misleading. It would be wrong to value Eichel as just a 55ish/65ish point center based on his previous years.

 

[Jame]

No, calling someone that they're not is simply misleading. It would be wrong to value Eichel as just a 55ish/65ish point center based on his previous years.

The two things you are trying to correlate are completely different.

 

[Jame]

If Buffalo fans are looking for a player from the Blues roster that can be a capable 2C now and slide down to 3C in a year or so when Mittelstadt pushes him down, the guy you're looking for is Bozak, not Schenn.

... but not with that contract.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The two things you are trying to correlate are completely different.

They aren't. Schenn has been a 60 point 82 game pace the past 3 of 4 seasons, and the other was a 55 point season. He's simply not a 50 point player like you said. You are being factually misleading.

 

[TK 421]

... but not with that contract.

Jame you will take Bozak and like it (please take Bozak!). UFA...the "gift" that keeps on giving.

 

[Jame]

Jame you will take Bozak and like it (please take Bozak!). UFA...the "gift" that keeps on giving.

Fool Botterill once... shame on Botterill. Fool Botterill twice... more shame on Botterill. lol

 

[Jame]

They aren't.

Yes... they very much are.

Schenn has been a 60 point 82 game pace the past 3 of 4 seasons, and the other was a 55 point season. He's simply not a 50 point player like you said. You are being factually misleading.

I understand that you want to call a 59 point season a 60 point season
I understand that you want to project the remaining 48 games in this season, at a stable scoring rate, while 100% of remaining games are played.

That's fine. I think it's factually misleading just the same.... but regardless, that is absolutely NOT the same as projecting Jack Eichel's development.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Yes... they very much are.



I understand that you want to call a 59 point season a 60 point season
I understand that you want to project the remaining 48 games in this season, at a stable scoring rate, while 100% of remaining games are played.

That's fine. I think it's factually misleading just the same.... but regardless, that is absolutely NOT the same as projecting Jack Eichel's development.

59 in 80 is a 60 point 82 game pace, which is what I posted...keep doubling down.

 

[TK 421]

Fool Botterill once... shame on Botterill. Fool Botterill twice... more shame on Botterill. lol

Armstrong thought hiring Mike Yeo was a great idea and that Jake Allen is good. He probably would love to give the Sabres a 1st to take Bozak lol.

 

[Jame]

Armstrong thought hiring Mike Yeo was a great idea and that Jake Allen is good. He probably would love to give the Sabres a 1st to take Bozak lol.

Yea... Armstrong is a jekyl/hyde GM... getting ROR without giving up a key prospect or asset is an amazing steal, doing it while also dumping 2 turd contracts is a jedi level manuever....

 

[Jame]

59 in 80 is a 60 point 82 game pace, which is what I posted...keep doubling down.

Did that imaginary point help you win any games? If Schenn had a bonus in his contract that paid him for a 60 point season, in how many years would he have been paid that bonus? I'm going with 1 year. What say you?

Simple: Projecting a 19-20 year old, is not the same as measuring a veteran.

 

[Aavvaa]

No.

If the Sabres trade for Schenn, his usage would be similar to his usage in Philly, which was not good. Also no to trading away those picks for players with only 18 months of term left.

Schenn and the Sabres aren't a good fit. Buffalo needs someone that can just hold the fort until Mitts/Asplund/Others are ready.

Besides, I'd imagine St. Louis would like to keep Schenn, since he's actually producing.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Did that imaginary point help you win any games? If Schenn had a bonus in his contract that paid him for a 60 point season, in how many years would he have been paid that bonus? I'm going with 1 year. What say you?

Simple: Projecting a 19-20 year old, is not the same as measuring a veteran.

That season was in Philly and you are still missing the point. The point of Eichel is simply not calling him a 55is/65ish point player when he was playing at a ppg pace. Now you can adjust value if they are injury prone, but Eichel's value in those years was closer to the ppg centers and not 60ish point guys. That's the point. You called Schenn a 50 point guy and that is simply wrong.

 

[TK 421]

Yea... Armstrong is a jekyl/hyde GM... getting ROR without giving up a key prospect or asset is an amazing steal, doing it while also dumping 2 turd contracts is a jedi level manuever....

True and yet I still cry a lot while mumbling to myself about extensions. I swear the guy does good things then promptly shoots himself in the foot.

 

[Jame]

That season was in Philly and you are still missing the point. The point of Eichel is simply not calling him a 55is/65ish point player when he was playing at a ppg pace. Now you can adjust value if they are injury prone, but Eichel's value in those years was closer to the ppg centers and not 60ish point guys. That's the point. You called Schenn a 50 point guy and that is simply wrong.

I understand that you do not understand the difference between projecting a future super star and giving a veteran credit for points he did not actually produce.

Schenn IS a 50 point guy, with 1 outlier 70 point season.

No, Schenn does not get the benefit of the doubt that he would've scored a point in one of the 2 games he missed back in that 59 point season.

But hey, since you like paces so much... here's a reminder: Schenn's 70 point season... he actually played the last 60 games of that season, at a 55 point pace. That's called, evidence of an outlier (He played the first 22 games at an absurd 112 point pace).

 

[Jame]

True and yet I still cry a lot while mumbling to myself about extensions. I swear the guy does good things then promptly shoots himself in the foot.

I feel the same way about Botts... The ROR trade and the Reinhart bridge look like colossal mistakes, when every other moved worked perfectly, these 2 unforced errors loom large.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I understand that you do not understand the difference between projecting a future super star and giving a veteran credit for points he did not actually produce.

Schenn IS a 50 point guy, with 1 outlier 70 point season.

No, Schenn does not get the benefit of the doubt that he would've scored a point in one of the 2 games he missed back in that 59 point season.

But hey, since you like paces so much... here's a reminder: Schenn's 70 point season... he actually played the last 60 games of that season, at a 55 point pace. That's called, evidence of an outlier (He played the first 22 games at an absurd 112 point pace).

Ok, so keep missing the point and doubling downing and going off on tangents. This was fun lol.