To be honest, I think any team can win this division. Even the Red Sox. Yankees are definitely overrated just because they are the “Yankees”. It makes no sense being pessimistic. We’ll see where we end up. Definitely a tough division. But it makes the season fun.
The Yankees rotation could be interesting:
Cole is going for imaging and could be out for the year.
Stroman is realistically their 2 (even though they like to call him their 4) and he's a decent mid-rotation guy with some real 2 upside.
Rodon has a sudden and unexplained loss of velocity (which hints that he could be headed to TJ). He's throwing 91-92 this year.
Cortez had injuries last year but his balls in play profile also changed (and not for the better).
Schmidt profiles as a mid-backend starter.
Also, one of the things that they've quietly hinted at is that Judge is likely to be on permanent load management where he only plays something like 100 games in the field (max) with a bunch of games at DH to keep him in the lineup.
Edit:
Boston's rotation is in rough shape without Giolito.
Pivetta is realistically a back-end starter.
The rest of the guys are young (but might have potential), though guys like Whitlock and Houck should also have innings caps.