I liked what I saw at the WJC.
What are your concerns?
That's a breathtakingly stupid take.
Firstly, I was preaching patience on the BUF forums all last year and prior to this one that people shouldn't judge Rosen negatively based on his D+1 season -- due to a combination of injuries & lack of playing time/being in the right league or circumstance for his development, as well as well as other players who other Sabres fans wanted to select either at the time or with the benefit of hindsight (such as Wallstedt or Othmann or whomever).
I even gave him the benefit of the doubt in the summer WJC tourney because he had missed a bunch of time and the other aforementioned reasons. But I did see certain things that concerned me and gave him a pass until I could see him more.
I came away from this past WJC very disappointed in his game overall. He's got some excellent strengths, such as:
- very intelligent player. He's got good positioning in all 3 zones. He's defensively responsible and reads the play well by being in good position, and does a good job of covering at the blueline when defenders pinch or otherwise when being the last F back.
- he's a good passer with good vision. He makes smart passes in all 3 zones. He can spot a longer distance passing lane and execute quickly, or hold on for an extra second to wait for more options to present themselves.
- he's got a good shot and he's got a naturally high skill level. No, his shot isn't as good as Jiri Kulich and while it's a strength at lower levels, and may or may not be an elite shot at the NHL level when he develops more strength, but it's not an elite NHL shot "now".
- he's calm & poised and won't rush a play or be flustered -- not the complete "ice water in his veins" but good patience. However, the latter can can sometimes be the flipside of lack of urgency or motor; or at least there's a need to balance both.
Despite the very obvious positive stuff in his game, I think he's got some SERIOUS weaknesses that MIGHT be fatal flaws for him. For example:
- this player is so soft that someone should name a line of toilet paper after him.
- I don't like his motor. By comparison, Noah Ostlund has a MUCH better motor where he's giving much more of a consistent level of pace, determination & effort on every shift.
- Rosen shies away from physical contact. Although the examples are plentiful, the one that best exemplified this for me is when he was going in 1 on 1 with Lane Hutson (the smallest Dman in the tournament) in the Bronze medal game. Rosen crossed the blueline with the puck and rather than even trying to beat Hutson wide or chip the puck & chase it down in the corner, Rosen just dumped it in softly and peeled off. And no, this wasn't at the end of a shift when he didn't have gas in the tank.
- It's one thing to not win a battle along the boards/in the corners, but it's another thing to not even try or engage. Again, I will point to Ostlund here who is smaller & slighter than Rosen, but he worked his ass off on every 50/50 puck battle despite the size of the opponent. Ostlund is much stronger in the areas of determination and engaging in battles than Rosen.
- I saw absolutely ZERO, and I cannot stress enough,
ZERO levels of change in Rosen's game despite the score/circumstance in the game or what game he was playing in. I saw no difference in his effort level, determination, pace or willingness to engage in battles whether it was the early tourney games or when it got to the medal round and even the bronze medal game. And not only did I not see a difference from one game to another, I saw no change whether it was in the first period of that game relative to when it was the 3rd period or when they were down by a goal or when it was in overtime. Rosen played every shift like he was playing in a pre-tournament exhibition game.
I came into this past season thinking Rosen needed lots of playing time (preferably in the CHL, but unfortunately BUF didn't engineer for him to be take in the Import draft) and I came away from the WJC believing less like he needs playing time amongst his peers and more that he needs military style boot camp. Someone has to instill some real determination and urgency in his game.
And while naturally skilled, he doesn't have a shot like Viktor Olofsson (like
@Chainshot pointed out in one of the BUF forum threads), and he doesn't have the one-on-one skills like an Alexi Kovalev where he can just dance guys at will, and while he's an excellent skater, he's not such a burner that he's find himself on breakaways all the time (like a Michael Grabner type of guy). In short, I don't think he's strengths are strong enough to overcome the flaws. At least as it stands TODAY....
So this is where I feel the need to state what should be implicit: that Rosen may well develop in a way where he overcomes these weaknesses, and I sure hope he does. But I wouldn't bet any of my own money on it. I think it's more likely that he ends up as a bottom bottom 6 guy and PP specialist on a weak team (if he makes the NHL) than being a legit top 6 or play driving winger on a good team. And I think there's a legit chance he doesn't play. And I would be willing to bet money that if he does play 200+ NHL games, it won't be for the Sabres.
Then look at BUF specifically with their prospect pool, and I don't see him taking a spot over any of their top young players -- Quinn, Peterka, Savoie, Kulich, or even Ostlund or Mittelstadt (who has impressed me of late). I think he's behind all of those guys, and would be behind any forward BUF could select in the upcoming 2023 draft if they keep their pick. That's why I think Rosen is clear cut trade bait. And while my view of Rosen may not be universal among the league's scouts & GM's, I would be willing to bet my own money that A LOT of them feel this way, Bill Armstrong among them.
