Speculation: Simple question, Playoffs Yes or No

[Psycroptic86]

Yes. (I hope I'm right)

 

[Knave]

Yes. I think Ullmark holds up and gives us slightly above average goaltending. Jensen and Chabot make a good pairing. Our forward group isn't amazing but it's good enough given the last 3 years.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I think that they can. but if i had to put 1000$ of my own money on either outcome i would say they dont.

Not because of the talent, more so because how prone 16M of our cap is in Norris, and Chabot they really needed to find a way to get one of those guys out of here rolling into another season with both of them is going to land a similar result.

 

[hockey20000]

i gonna say no but atleast give me a wildcard chase into the last 3-5 games of season.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

One injury to our D and we are f***ed.

 

[Micklebot]

One injury to our D and we are f***ed.

Why?

Other teams don't have top 4 caliber guys sitting in the AHL, we have Hamonic as a 7th D (hopefully healthier this year), Guenette as a callup. Addison might get a 2-way contract as a another callup option. Roos is a callup option with NHL experience, as is Davies. Then there's Matinpalo who I think had a very good first year in NA, I think he's a decent callup option.

That's 12 deep with guys that all have played at the NHL level.

 

[Cosmix]

i gonna say no but atleast give me a wildcard chase into the last 3-5 games of season.

That is quite a lot to ask for, considering the team shat the bed at the start of last season.

I hope the team is realistically (not just hopelessly mathematically) in the race for a playoff spot for at least 80% of the season (i.e., about 65 games) rather than out of it by Xmas.

 

[Micklebot]

That is quite a lot to ask for, considering the team shat the bed at the start of last season.

I hope the team is realistically (not just hopelessly mathematically) in the race for a playoff spot for at least 80% of the season (i.e., about 65 games) rather than out of it by Xmas.

Well, we shouldn't get league worst goaltending with Ullmark, that should keep us in a lot more games early on. We also should have all of Stu, Norris, and Pinto in the lineup from the start of the year, which really helps our center depth, especially if Stu doesn't injury his wrist in game 4 again.

 

[Xspyrit]

One injury to our D and we are f***ed.

Same thing if an injury happens to Stutzle, Tkachuk or Batherson. Offense would then be challenged.

We were 20th in GF/GP last season, a key injury could put us in trouble as we need to be 15th or better

Joseph 35 pts vs Amadio 27 pts
Tarasenko 41 pts (in 57 games) vs Perron 47 pts
Kelly 18 pts vs Gregor 12 pts
Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts (3 pts in 13 games for AC)
Chychrun 41 pts vs Jensen 14 pts
Brannstrom 20 pts vs Kleven 1 pt (in only 9 games)

Total : 180 pts vs 119 pts

My hope is on Pinto and Norris both playing most of the season and no major injury to key players. And Stutzle being able to play at his best

 

[bicboi64]

Same thing if an injury happens to Stutzle, Tkachuk or Batherson. Offense would then be challenged.

We were 20th in GF/GP last season, a key injury could put us in trouble as we need to be 15th or better

Joseph 35 pts vs Amadio 27 pts
Tarasenko 41 pts (in 57 games) vs Perron 47 pts
Kelly 18 pts vs Gregor 12 pts
Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts (3 pts in 13 games for AC)
Chychrun 41 pts vs Jensen 14 pts
Brannstrom 20 pts vs Kleven 1 pt (in only 9 games)

Total : 180 pts vs 119 pts

My hope is on Pinto and Norris both playing most of the season and no major injury to key players. And Stutzle being able to play at his best

If Stu goes down, I do think Pinto can step up. Same with Greig if one of our wingers go down

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Same thing if an injury happens to Stutzle, Tkachuk or Batherson. Offense would then be challenged.

We were 20th in GF/GP last season, a key injury could put us in trouble as we need to be 15th or better

Joseph 35 pts vs Amadio 27 pts
Tarasenko 41 pts (in 57 games) vs Perron 47 pts
Kelly 18 pts vs Gregor 12 pts
Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts (3 pts in 13 games for AC)
Chychrun 41 pts vs Jensen 14 pts
Brannstrom 20 pts vs Kleven 1 pt (in only 9 games)

Total : 180 pts vs 119 pts

My hope is on Pinto and Norris both playing most of the season and no major injury to key players. And Stutzle being able to play at his best

I think this can be made up without even considering Pinto, Norris & Stu being healthy. This list is a little misrepresented imo because you've taken raw numbers in some cases, not extrapolated averages.

Joseph's 35 were a career high and he paced at 28.5 previously, so no guarantee it's repeated. Amadio has also almost double Joseph's goals per 82 the last 3 seasons at 18v11, so there's some positive there, even if slightly less production, Amadio appears to be the better goal scorer.

Kelly's 18 were in 80 games compared to Gregor's 12 being in 63, so that's basically null. Gregor has averaged 21/82 in his NHL games.

Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts. Extrapolated over 82 games, the Cousins/Crookshank combo actually exceeds the other two in PPG by 3 points.

This one is not arguable, but they play different roles. It'll obviously be up to Chabot/Sanderson to step up and replace that production, or if one goes down, someone other than Jensen thrust into that role. IF Chabot can stay healthy and Sanderson takes a step forward, it's reasonable to think they can make that 27 points up.

Almost half of Brannstrom's relatively low production is made up if Kleven also played 76 games instead of 9, and Kleven was just breaking in, so who knows. 10-20 points is not a reasonable expectation for a bottom pairing D, even guys like Holden, JBD and Hamonic were meeting or pacing above 15.

 

[Micklebot]

I think this can be made up without even considering Pinto, Norris & Stu being healthy. This list is a little misrepresented imo because you've taken raw numbers in some cases, not extrapolated averages.

Joseph's 35 were a career high and he paced at 28.5 previously, so no guarantee it's repeated. Amadio has also almost double Joseph's goals per 82 the last 3 seasons at 18v11, so there's some positive there, even if slightly less production, Amadio appears to be the better goal scorer.

Kelly's 18 were in 80 games compared to Gregor's 12 being in 63, so that's basically null.

Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts. Extrapolated over 82 games, the Cousins/Crookshank combo actually exceeds the other two in PPG by 3 points.

This one is not arguable, but they play different roles. It'll obviously be up to Chabot/Sanderson to step up and replace that production, or if one goes down, someone other than Jensen thrust into that role. IF Chabot can stay healthy and Sanderson takes a step forward, it's reasonable to think they can make that 27 points up.

Almost half of Brannstrom's relatively low production is made up if Kleven also played 76 games instead of 9, and Kleven was just breaking in, so who knows. 10-20 points is not a reasonable expectation for a bottom pairing D, even guys like Holden, JBD and Hamonic were meeting or pacing above 15.

Its worth noting Jensen had 29 pts a year earlier when paired Orlov instead of Edmundson/Sandin

People have made the valid point that Chychrun will be in a better situation playing his right side with a defensive minded partner, well Jensen should also benefit playing with one of Chabot or Sanderson instead of Sandin or Edmundson.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Its worth noting Jensen had 29 pts a year earlier when paired Orlov instead of Edmundson/Sandin

People have made the valid point that Chychrun will be in a better situation playing his right side with a defensive minded partner, well Jensen should also benefit playing with one of Chabot or Sanderson instead of Sandin or Edmundson.

Good point. Jensen also had 21 the year before that and 14 in 53 the year before that. ~20 points seems reasonable.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

We’re making the f***ing playoffs, and whoever doesn’t think so is a loser and isn’t invited to the parade on Elgin in 3 years.

 

[Xspyrit]

I think this can be made up without even considering Pinto, Norris & Stu being healthy. This list is a little misrepresented imo because you've taken raw numbers in some cases, not extrapolated averages.

I was thinking Kleven and Crookshank not playing full seasons was offset by Tarasenko only playing 57 games for us

Joseph's 35 were a career high and he paced at 28.5 previously, so no guarantee it's repeated.

It doesn't matter as I am only looking at last season production. The question here is about who replace that production and what happens if a key forward goes down?

Amadio has also almost double Joseph's goals per 82 the last 3 seasons at 18v11, so there's some positive there, even if slightly less production, Amadio appears to be the better goal scorer.

I wish Joseph was still here (but doesn't look like it was possible?) but I have not much worries about Amadio, he became a solid all around bottom-6 forward due to going to one of the best classes in the NHL. He will replace Jos differently but adequately.

Kelly's 18 were in 80 games compared to Gregor's 12 being in 63, so that's basically null. Gregor has averaged 21/82 in his NHL games.

Another replacement I am not worried about, it was meant to calculate the overall difference to show that there was already a production downgrade and highlight how a key injury could hurt.

Kubalik/Kastelic 25 pts vs Cousins/Crookshank 18 pts. Extrapolated over 82 games, the Cousins/Crookshank combo actually exceeds the other two in PPG by 3 points.

Same thing, part of the overall list for the totals

This one is not arguable, but they play different roles. It'll obviously be up to Chabot/Sanderson to step up and replace that production, or if one goes down, someone other than Jensen thrust into that role. IF Chabot can stay healthy and Sanderson takes a step forward, it's reasonable to think they can make that 27 points up.

Yeah I'm counting on Chabot/Sanderson, would really like to see Chabot go 100% healthy with a defensive minded presence

Almost half of Brannstrom's relatively low production is made up if Kleven also played 76 games instead of 9, and Kleven was just breaking in, so who knows. 10-20 points is not a reasonable expectation for a bottom pairing D, even guys like Holden, JBD and Hamonic were meeting or pacing above 15.

Not too worried about it, Kleven has shown in the NCAA/AHL/NHL that he is not the offensive blackhole he was made out to be. I think he could maybe get 15 pts if he plays all season. Note that Brannstrom production was entirely coming at ES, which is valuable.

Overall, I don't think you perfectly understood where I was going with that. My fault as I didn't explain why I made theses calculations.

It was not about comparing these players 1 by 1 offensively but more the overall change. I don't think it's as a big downgrades as the numbers suggest (however Chyhcrun and Tarasenko are talented offensively) but it's already some production that will be to be made up and I think it will. But the problem I see is who would replace a Tkachuk/Stutzle/Batherson as there is alreadypressure on the group to score more to finish above 20th in GF/GP

 

[DylanSensFan]

I am going to say YES. Come at me bros.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I was thinking Kleven and Crookshank not playing full seasons was offset by Tarasenko only playing 57 games for us

That is fair but also not a total wash as Perron had about a 51 per 82 pace not that far off Tarasenko's 59 per 82 in Ottawa, so it's more like an 8 point spread. It was also one of Perron's least productive seasons of his career, but he is getting older, so not gonna argue that'll increase, although same applies to Tarasenko potentially.

It doesn't matter as I am only looking at last season production. The question here is about who replace that production and what happens if a key forward goes down?

My argument would be that had Joseph stayed, we wouldn't have been able to reliably assume he would repeat his own production last year since it exceeds his career averages by a fair bit. Their career numbers track pretty comparatively.

I wish Joseph was still here (but doesn't look like it was possible?) but I have not much worries about Amadio, he became a solid all around bottom-6 forward due to going to one of the best classes in the NHL. He will replace Jos differently but adequately.

They have different strengths for sure. I liked Joseph's speed, but for the 3rd line I like the idea of a guy that flirts with 20 goals per 82 instead of barely above 10.

Another replacement I am not worried about, it was meant to calculate the overall difference to show that there was already a production downgrade and highlight how a key injury could hurt.

Right, and it is a nothing burger agreed, but it's only a 3 point difference if Gregor played the same games as Kelly, which is in the territory of a bounce or two, not a difference in ability. And that was well below Gregor's career paces, so if we're hedging bets on the future, Gregor is a better bet as a more known quantity who produces 20+ per 82.

Same thing, part of the overall list for the totals

Do raw numbers matter when you're comparing something like a guy that played 13 games to a guy that played 80 though? That just seems like stretching to try to make a point rather than the very safe assumption that almost any 2 NHL bodies put in for Kubalik/Kastelic will easily recoup their production. If anything, the likelihood is to exceed their poor production combined. I get that's not what you're going for as outlined below, but I think this one is a bit silly because their production was very unspectacular and easily filled.

Yeah I'm counting on Chabot/Sanderson, would really like to see Chabot go 100% healthy with a defensive minded presence

Yes, that's obviously the plan. The PP time will be taken by them for sure and they've made their bed contractually. Chychrun has also been just as injury prone, if not more, and looked to be actively playing not to get hurt, so no guarantee with him had he stayed and tried to play effectively. I do think Jensen has shown to be at least capable offensively too, just depends what he's got left in the tank.

Not too worried about it, Kleven has shown in the NCAA/AHL/NHL that he is not the offensive blackhole he was made out to be. I think he could maybe get 15 pts if he plays all season. Note that Brannstrom production was entirely coming at ES, which is valuable.

I agree it has value that it was all even strength, but I still think it's relatively pedestrian, pretty easily recouped numbers for a bottom pairing D, even more defensively minded ones usually pot 12-20 points a year while not playing on the PP either.

Overall, I don't think you perfectly understood where I was going with that. My fault as I didn't explain why I made theses calculations.

It was not about comparing these players 1 by 1 offensively but more the overall change. I don't think it's as a big downgrades as the numbers suggest (however Chyhcrun and Tarasenko are talented offensively) but it's already some production that will be to be made up and I think it will. But the problem I see is who would replace a Tkachuk/Stutzle/Batherson as there is alreadypressure on the group to score more to finish above 20th in GF/GP

I feel like maybe I did understand but was sort of refuting the use of the exercise. You are technically correct with what you posted, but I think taking a reasonable look at each individually, it is clear, at least imo, that it's not a factor to be concerned with basically at all.

 

[ColinM]

I don't see a team ahead of them from last year that is meaningfully regressed so I will say no.

I think they will play meaningful games at the end of March.

 

[The Waffler]

Gonna be hard to miss when they go 82-0.

 

[DackellDuck]

I hated Tampas offseason. But if Vasi is back to 100 now they'll be good. Losing a player like Stamkos isn't easy. Rocks the room and think he's better than Guentzel. Bruins will likely be the same, Florida lost alot on the back end and had two long runs but they're the Champs. Actually love the leafs offseason. I personally see 6 locks for the playoffs with 2 spots up for grabs.

Atlantic in:
Leafs, Bruins, Panthers


Metro in:
NYR, Canes, Devils

Wild card teams with a real shot for the last 2 spots.
Buffalo, Tampa, Ottawa, NYI, Pittsburgh

Pretenders:
Columbus, Philly, Detroit, Montreal, Washington

I'm curious, what about the Leafs offseason did you like?

I think Tanev is a good player and add, but you have to keep in mind that he's turning 35 this season and has a ton of hard miles on his body. He was a great fit in Dallas as a #4 playing behind Heiskanen, Lindell and Harley, but Toronto is bringing him in to be their #2. I don't think he's that.

Beyond that, they added Ekman-Larsson, who despite rebuilding some of his value in a very sheltered role with the Panthers, is also a 3rd pairing guy on the wrong side of 30. He was atrocious in his last couple of seasons in Vancouver, so who knows what Toronto is getting now that he got security again.

The Hakanpaa situation is also bizarre. I get the appeal of his size, but he's another 32 year old plodder with severe knee concerns. He signed a 2-year deal but didn't pass his physical, then it turns out he did pass his physical a couple months later, but the contract got downgraded to a 1-year deal, and now he's at camp but they don't know when he'll be ready to play? Weird all around.

Then the goaltending is a massive red flag. I don't get the Joseph Woll hype. He's had a few strong games, but his overall performance last year was markedly average. A .907 SV% is fine, but it doesn't scream "goalie of the future" to me. And you can't ignore the injuries. He's never played over 25 games in an NHL season, or 37 games in his entire NCAA/AHL/NHL career.

Then you have the Marner contract distraction and a new coach who's already throwing things at the wall like moving Nylander to center (although apparently only in the neutral and offensive zones because in their own end he and Domi will flip...).

People still treat that team as if it was 2020, but they've regressed every year for the last 3. I expect that to continue.

Looking at Florida, Boston, Tampa and Toronto have taken hits to their depth, but the Panthers, Bruins and Lightning all have a stronger spine to their team (goalies and D) and better overall balance.

People write off Tampa, and they're certainly not what they were a few years ago, but after Vasilevskyi returned last year, they had a better record than the Leafs did the rest of the season. With a full summer of training under his belt, I'd pick a Vasy led Lightning team over a Woll led Leafs team every day of the week.

The Leafs feel like a powder keg to me.

 

[DackellDuck]

The answer is... maybe.

Metro:
Carolina
NYR
New Jersey

Atlantic:
Florida
Tampa
Boston

Wildcard likely:
Toronto

Wildcard in the hunt:
NYI
Detroit
Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Washington

Lottery teams:
Montreal
Philadelphia
Buffalo
Columbus

 

[Xspyrit]

That is fair but also not a total wash as Perron had about a 51 per 82 pace not that far off Tarasenko's 59 per 82 in Ottawa, so it's more like an 8 point spread. It was also one of Perron's least productive seasons of his career, but he is getting older, so not gonna argue that'll increase, although same applies to Tarasenko potentially.

Yeah but remember, it's not about what Tarasenko does going forward, it's about replacing what was done last year. We were 20th in GF/GP and IMO we'll need to be better than that so it's about replacing the lost production and also have what is necessary in case of a key injury (+ fingers crossed about Norris)

My argument would be that had Joseph stayed, we wouldn't have been able to reliably assume he would repeat his own production last year since it exceeds his career averages by a fair bit. Their career numbers track pretty comparatively.

Joseph had 0.49 PPG last season and the 3 years prior : 0.34, 0.43 and 0.32. Not as good as last season but can expect 28 to 35 pts per 82 games. A problem for him has been playing all games. He's been quite injury prone in his career

My point was more to calculate the past production we have to replace. I think it can be replaced without much problem but my concern is more about a key injury that could put us in trouble

Do raw numbers matter when you're comparing something like a guy that played 13 games to a guy that played 80 though? That just seems like stretching to try to make a point rather than the very safe assumption that almost any 2 NHL bodies put in for Kubalik/Kastelic will easily recoup their production. If anything, the likelihood is to exceed their poor production combined. I get that's not what you're going for as outlined below, but I think this one is a bit silly because their production was very unspectacular and easily filled.

Again, it was really not the point you think I was trying to make. So not going to comment any further or the debate could go on forever.

I agree it has value that it was all even strength, but I still think it's relatively pedestrian, pretty easily recouped numbers for a bottom pairing D, even more defensively minded ones usually pot 12-20 points a year while not playing on the PP either.

I think most people would think this but looking at last 2 years combined, only 99 D-men have more ESP than Brannstrom... and there's 192 regular jobs (92 D-men had more looking at just 2023-24)

I feel like maybe I did understand but was sort of refuting the use of the exercise. You are technically correct with what you posted, but I think taking a reasonable look at each individually, it is clear, at least imo, that it's not a factor to be concerned with basically at all.

I should have just listed the overall totals (Pts + GP) without names to avoid confusion. It was never meant to be individual comparisons, sorry if it looked like that. It was meant to be a really short point (the one after I briefly talk about Joseph in this post)

I agree with your points that I didn't quote.

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah but remember, it's not about what Tarasenko does going forward, it's about replacing what was done last year. We were 20th in GF/GP and IMO we'll need to be better than that so it's about replacing the lost production and also have what is necessary in case of a key injury (+ fingers crossed about Norris)



Joseph had 0.49 PPG last season and the 3 years prior : 0.34, 0.43 and 0.32. Not as good as last season but can expect 28 to 35 pts per 82 games. A problem for him has been playing all games. He's been quite injury prone in his career

My point was more to calculate the past production we have to replace. I think it can be replaced without much problem but my concern is more about a key injury that could put us in trouble



Again, it was really not the point you think I was trying to make. So not going to comment any further or the debate could go on forever.



I think most people would think this but looking at last 2 years combined, only 99 D-men have more ESP than Brannstrom... and there's 192 regular jobs (92 D-men had more looking at just 2023-24)



I should have just listed the overall totals (Pts + GP) without names to avoid confusion. It was never meant to be individual comparisons, sorry if it looked like that. It was meant to be a really short point (the one after I briefly talk about Joseph in this post)

I agree with your points that I didn't quote.

So, I would argue you don't look to replace a player's production, but rather a roles.

Tarasenko may have put up a 59 pts pace, but a lot of that was in a top 6 role due to injuries and suspensions, while Kubalik was playing on the third line.

So, if we have a lineup that looks like:

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Norris-Pinto-Batherson
Amadio-Greig-Perron
Gregor-Ostapchuk-Cousins

We'd be looking to replace:
Tanks numbers with Norris', seems achievable.
Kubalik's with Perron, should be no problem
Joseph's with Amadio, likely pretty close
Kelly's with Gregor, again, should be close
Kastelic with Ostapchuk, hard to say with Ostapchuk being a rookie, but 18 pts isn't a high bar
MacEwen's with Cousins. shouldn't be a problem.

Now, maybe Norris and Greig flip spots, that would probably help Greig produce but hurt Norris, on the whole it likely balances.

 

[OmniSens]

I'll say no, next year yes.

 

[Xspyrit]

We need to make these playoffs and Stu needs to put 100 pts so the Leafs fans could shut up a little bit. This is what I was told yesterday :

" But you're probably right, this is the Senators year to finally make the playoffs and hopefully play against Toronto in the first round. God knows we need the free pass, which is what your favourite franchise has always been to us. "

This poster needs that to blow up in his face

So, I would argue you don't look to replace a player's production, but rather a roles.

Tarasenko may have put up a 59 pts pace, but a lot of that was in a top 6 role due to injuries and suspensions, while Kubalik was playing on the third line.

So, if we have a lineup that looks like:

Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Norris-Pinto-Batherson
Amadio-Greig-Perron
Gregor-Ostapchuk-Cousins

We'd be looking to replace:
Tanks numbers with Norris', seems achievable.
Kubalik's with Perron, should be no problem
Joseph's with Amadio, likely pretty close
Kelly's with Gregor, again, should be close
Kastelic with Ostapchuk, hard to say with Ostapchuk being a rookie, but 18 pts isn't a high bar
MacEwen's with Cousins. shouldn't be a problem.

Now, maybe Norris and Greig flip spots, that would probably help Greig produce but hurt Norris, on the whole it likely balances.

If Norris is healthy and back to form, I actually have more faith in the current lineup so have to cross the fingers here. Both Norris and Pinto playing would make the biggest difference vs last season

My concern is if Norris can't be back at his top and another top guy (Tkachuk, Batherson, Stu or Giroux) get injured, who could step up for offense? I guess Greig and Perron would be called up upon but hard to ask significant offensive numbers from a 36 y/o and a sophomore. I think we'd have to go to the trading route.

Unfortunately, this forward group seems to depend a lot on Norris' health. We could maybe "manage" without him but we'd be one injury from being in real trouble. His situation and his cap hit makes it hard to manage for the team.